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Supercell in East Central WI looks like it's targeting me

*greatest Nor'Easter that never was XD Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Yeah thats a good point. Ive heard the average that 1" of sleet is about 3" of snow. Every location has its nuances. Up here, you get so many mood flakes that dont show in any aspect of the weather stats. In any given snow season, there will be approximately 35-45 days with a Trace of snow in addition to all the measurable snowfall. Its what happens in a Great Lakes climate. So "how many times did it snow last winter" is never a valid question here for determining winter severity. In the south, a disproportionate amount of wintry precip is ice vs snow, which is unfortunate for snow lovers because I imagine the mindset is "hey, its finally cold enough to snow, why is it raining?".

The latest BoA continues to suggest near record rate of 3.4 one month of warming for ANY month (back to 1950) with August ~1C warmer than July, similar to the CFS:

Popcorn thunderstorms kicking off early

hella hail at our lab in elk grove

Dew is under 60 here, but expecting mid-upper 60s later

Yup. Even today 67/68 dews feels good

Next week is going to be great when we pump in 70+ dews

Some very small hail falling here in the NW burbs! Been a minute since I’ve seen the stuff

Nice daytime soaking! Getting some mini sized hail here too in the burbs rn!

I was referring to JB, not you.

Pac looking pretty active right now with a brief C5 (Genevieve) off the Mexican coast and likely close Hawaii approach from Fausto.

Just got home last night from Airventure and other activities to the North and this morning Goat and Donkey were staring at me like "why is the grass turning to dirt?" lmao. Turned them into the neighboring "pasture/yard" so they can finish that one off. Everything has missed us this month.

Today marks the peak average hot day at NdT. Tomorrow the temp on average starts to decrease.

An embedded sup is trying to from in NE IL, similar to what is occurring in SE WI.

I think so too, but this is still really complicated, and the 12Z suite hasn't locked in on anything yet. It *does* seem like while the main MCS will be west of here in the morning hours, some piece of it will approach and probably strengthen a bit. If it arrives around commute time, it will probably be sub-severe, but if it's mid-morning, severe is possible. Guidance then differs sharply on how much heating will occur behind any morning activity, but how much will it matter. Steepening lapse and strong forcing might compensate for limited surface heating. At least scattered storms are likely by mid-afternoon, and some solutions are widespread. All hazards would be possible; the low-level winds are probably too weak for tornadoes, but the directional shear will be there, so it wouldn't take much to increase the tornado threat.

gonna end up with another just in time heavy soak

Would've been nutz if that would've been 24 hours earlier when the Oshkosh Sunday train was exiting lol

WI coastline rocking from moneyman to racine

Wait, how does it make sense that there's no watch in an area with that many warnings and an MCD? Like...are they waiting for it to be in the lake first?

Have a gut feeling the good rains will be east of the river and not really ramp up into Lancaster County

My grounds are pretty dry already even after 3" last week. Cool breeze but very humid feeling as well. 80 but sticky.

should be just far enough north and east to get the tail end warned cell, blessed

I was gonna say, which office is holding out?