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An extremely close marginal situation at the edges. We await

Euro starting to cave but still has that other low

6z Euro drier too.

Me too. An inch of snow out of this set-up this early in the season and I am thrilled

Brave soul to start the thread! 6z 3k NAM says "No snow for you" along the coastal plain.

November outcomes for New York City:

No kidding, just let the dog out and the grass is slick!

That’s not a slight shift

Temp down to 31F, lots of black ice around

While not a memorable event I feel like Whitehall/Bethlehem should get its first 1-2in of the year

They did for me too. They DO have me a little higher than you, though at 3-7 inches. Seems surface temps are going to be pretty consistent around the region, as they have me at 36 as well. I'm not liking that Friday morning low though. They shaved a degree off and now have me at 8.

https://tinyurl.com/ykvxepp2

I don’t think anything really has changed overnight. The euro ticking warmer wasn’t really a shock. This looks like a 495 north and west kind of deal with area still in question is inside 495 through about Kevin. The nam is out to lunch and zonked so that’s tossed.

Weeeeee

Seems NWS shaved 3 in off the total this morning. Tuesday Snow before 10am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

And for the northern folks:

The deamp trend is still alive and well. Maybe we should start looking for "cutters" along with blocking and... "right where we want it at 6 days out"?

I don't like this range map at all. At least raise the floor on the two high zones.

I would love for that HRRR to verify

Added the NWS snowman that weren't into the 4AM forecasts, and the side bar notes are my opinion. Will check back at 5P.

Off-topic: It's incredibly icy out there this morning. Be careful out there!

Euro agrees. AI still has a light event though and kinda breaks it into 2 parts, one Friday and then more Saturday as a coastal gets going.

Current temp of 26. This week looks interesting.

Reminds me, someday I need to draw a rain/snow line map for my area that better explains it. Models and local forecasts just never get the area right. Heavy smoothing on the maps

Interesting how the basic signature of the precip shield is very similar to the Gfs, but the Gfs is just heavier.