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Something interesting went on with the NAM overnight. It seems to have been 'swapped out' for a warm result. The FOUS grids in this kind lee side polar air have been struggling to get above +2. Out of no where they are all popped to +6 to +10 in the T1 layer. Today is the Equinox, so if the switch to the summer algorithms is true it's as good a date as any to flip. Man, it is spectacular nape day. 53 full sun zip wind.

The 10th Anniversary of the Dead River Flood 23 years ago, worst case scenario.

I’m still not sure what to expect. Models keep printing very heavy precip rates. Like 3 hours of 0.1”< QPF snowfall and like 0.60” in 4 hours this afternoon.

Not to the Fairbanks extreme for, like, mid-January, but pretty darned cold for March. FAI is currently sitting at -15.5° for March. The previous coldest March was -6.6°. The next week will be warmer, with an average around 0, but they should still wind up around -10 for the month, which will easily be their coldest month on record. And that was after their coldest December since 1980, and cold Jan and Feb, so their DJFM will be anomalies of -19, -6, -7 and -20. Plus a lot of snow, they were already above average and Feb dropped 39" (their average is 10"). They should be in the top 10 years with >30" of snow depth (48 days as of yesterday) Pretty deep winter up there. ANC has been warmer until this month, but got 40" of snow in January and this month is running a -15 anomaly. While FAI had one day above average (by like 0.1°) ANC is at like 34 days below average and will add to that for the foreseeable future (they're not progged above freezing for at least a week, and should be at ~ the third longest such streak). And down in Juneau the story is more the snow. 82" in a -12 Dec (depth of 50") which was gone by Jan 15 after a week of rain, but 28" in Feb and 52" so far this month and they're sitting at 184" for the year, 10" off the record, and they should be close by the end of next week. This guy's feed is a pretty good compendium of how cold it has been up there this winter. (Things like "Juneau has had more snow than Fairbanks and Anchorage combined, and both of them are above their averages.")

It's like 'Chuck NoMorris'

That’s what I was thinking too….it may take a historic ENSO event to finally flip the unrelenting, stagnant Pacific. It’s been over 20 years (1997-98) since we’ve had a true, “super”, east-based/East Pacific El Niño. I guess the ‘we’re due’ argument would fit here, since 2015-16 was a basin-wide event, not east-based/EP

Me too!

They didn't bury him 6 feet under, the world moved 6 feet up.

It comes for us all so who cares? We approve. Snowing here. Better rates took the temp down two degrees. SLK is down to .25 viz. 30/26

Today is nice at least.

Happy Spring, and the 4-6 weeks of misery that starts the period off.

I honestly think anything less than an A for New York city is not graded right! Think about it we had snow during Dec, Jan and Feb plenty of cold in fact it was historic cold all around. Yes we didn't break crazy records but it was cold and snowy. Even March has been kinda cold I mean whenever I think of March I always think of either cold and maybe a few inches or warm and rainy! I don't think March is a winter month anyway!

AO tumbling Chilly spring ahead?

Would be fitting here for this winter

@WinterWolfalways appreciates these in-depth dives on the ramifications/feedbacks of CC.

If we all need to take a mulligan next winter to vanquish the west-warm pool once and for all, sign me up. Despite a very favorable northern Pacific and polar domain this past season, it was still like pulling teeth to get bonafide coastals ....really just the blizzard, which bent me over, anyway. The dearth of residence time and amplification of the MJO in phase continued, as well. That being said, I have always maintained that Mother Nature will find away to achieve balance, and perhaps the burgeoning El Niño is the vehicle through which said balance will be achieved. I'll begin assessing next season in earnest early this summer...but taking a breather for now.

53 and sun at 11 am in Fallston- feels amazing after the icebox again this week.

More importantly just 6 days till Phillies opening day! Go Phillies!!

12z Nam lol.

It was phenomenal. It sucks too because the show ended with a massive cliff hanger. They did the movie I think it was after the show ended and were supposed to do a part 2 but it just never materialized. I think there are some channels (I see it on Hulu and Pluto TV) which plays episodes all the time.

He died also ? Rip Mr Morris. What a morning. First Norris and now Morris.

sunday could have a legit hailer threat for a lot of the OV, 2k+ cape on the NAM & pretty steep lapse rates (7-8C/km)

No not me. I doubled checked and I recorded 11.2 from that storm. Elevations in Highland Mills run from 450 to 900 feet. I'd just stick with the 11.6 report a half inch variation in town is pretty common depending where in town you reside.