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48 hours from now you and I will be sweating over p-type issues

Still think this one's more impressive than the last?

Local perception. Montgomery is down towards central NJ

Euro is a runnin

When’s the last time every county in NC reported measurable snow from the same storm?

60% of the time it fails us every time.

Any positives are good!

hope this thing amps up later, and deep into LI or BID. Black hole over the S coast. That's what we all wanted

The LFM nailed the 1980 storm like you would not believe. Bring back the LFM. It goes out to 72 hours now ya know.

4 GEFS members hit SWPa. There were only 2 at 12z

There’s about a 5% chance it shows what you want, and a 25% chance it’s a little better than last run.

I definitely remember this too. I think it was 2009/2010. GFS is kind of doing that now.

Waiting for the Euro

lol I was just posting maps too you guys beat me to it .. that’s not just a bump northwest that’s a 15-20” mean at day 5 for SEMASS. 5-10” to ENY. GFS has burnt us quite a bit this winter in the medium range so I’m very wary. But as we’ve said we would expect a strong Miller A to move NW as we get closer so we shall see what the other guidance says.

Oh, the irony! I just commented about this in a different thread. At hour 84+, for snowfall specifically, the NBM uses the EPS (50 members), GEFS (30 members), and the GFS (https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/32850490/CONUS_SNOICEACCUM.pdf)... So there must be some GEFS/EPS members that still support a (significant) snow event. You'd have to look at the individual members themselves to determine how (are there a few members skewing the mean, are there two different 'camps', etc..) that map you posted above is produced. I thought it was odd too. For skewness, you could also look at quartile ranges provided at https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?x4dLocations=["City"]&chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-105&theme=dark&timeZone=local&hourFormat=12&x4dviewState={"latitude"%3A40.5%2C"longitude"%3A-100%2C"bearing"%3A0%2C"pitch"%3A0%2C"zoom"%3A4}&dset=HREF-CONUS&clusHghlgt=true&x4dMapStyle=3D&x4dMaps={"basemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Mapbox"}%2C"mapboxBasemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Satellite"%2C"parentValue"%3A"mapboxBasemap"}%2C"Airports"%3A{}%2C"ARTCC"%3A{}%2C"Cities"%3A{"checked"%3Atrue}%2C"Coastlines"%3A{"checked"%3Atrue}%2C"County+lines"%3A{}%2C"Countries"%3A{}%2C"Country+lines"%3A{}%2C"Countries+NonUS"%3A{}%2C"Country+NonUS+lines"%3A{}%2C"CWAs"%3A{}%2C"Graticules"%3A{}%2C"HUC+6+(CONUS+%26+OCONUS)"%3A{}%2C"HUC+8+(CONUS)"%3A{}%2C"PSAs"%3A{}%2C"RFCs"%3A{}%2C"Roads"%3A{}%2C"State+lines"%3A{}%2C"Tribal+Lands"%3A{}%2C"Vulnerability"%3A{"value"%3A"Social+Vulnerability+Index"%2C"parentKey"%3A"Vulnerability"%2C"parentValue"%3A"Vulnerability"}%2C"Watches%2FWarnings%2FAdvisories"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(public)"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(fire+wx)"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(coastal+marine)"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(offshore+marine)"%3A{}}&preferredFontSize=14&x4dDset={"renderOptions"%3A"t2"%2C"plotargs"%3A[{"fields"%3A["t2"]%2C"fieldOption"%3A"statisticalMeasures"%2C"trackingID"%3A"tracking_643d2e8c-941e-4f4a-99f4-e0f3eeab9bd4"%2C"layerorder"%3A1769554913471}]%2C"name"%3A"statistics"%2C"default"%3Atrue}&x1dGroup=Default&x1dSection=overview&x1dSingleField=t2&x1dGraphStyle=pdf&x2dGraphStyle=boxwhisker

Depending on location, it may still be there from this past weekend. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

At that approach vector, this far out, it would take almost nothing to shift it NW just watch for any sort of kicker though.

Most people saw 12-18"...

As an Os fans, I can think of a few players below the Mendoza over the years. I still watched in hopes of a hit though.

@Maestrobjwa and @stormtracker...I saw that today is Mozart's birthday!! Now, I know that @stormtracker is not the biggest fan...I believe he once referred to Mozart with the phrase "his harpsichord playing ass!"...but as a classical music lover I still appreciate Mozart! Great music and great opera music as well! (Though I still must say Beethoven is my favorite!)

I remember other models chasing a weak low out to sea along a boundary while the “real” low was closer to the coast and moved north in time slowly and took over the show. (I think but not sure could havd been either 2009-2010 or 1996)

good find Jimmy!

If it pulls moisture off the Atlantic what is the water temperature to be able to an “ocean effect” increase or is that even a thing?

While there have been notably boring stretches this season, I think the floor would be a “C” grade locally. Tracking fairly well on days with snow cover, measurable days, # of significant events, and progress towards seasonal total. Without the once-in-a-lifetime November, this would be a much different story. But it’s nice not to look down the pipe and expect another “F”.

That's a biggun on the GEFS.