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GFS is a 1’+ for everyone, and I pretty much mea everyone. Hope it’s doing okay thermal wise. Nice to see the hires FV3 also chilly.

Gfs looks like mulit prog system again

Yeah, either it's on to something or on something. On and island by itself tho, so...

And you will notice the wild swings stop and begin to form a solid line of best fit

GFS is more of a two-parter than some of the other models. First comes through cold and all snow. Looks like the 2nd is going to be latitudinally-dependent. 00Z Monday DCA

Are we trending boys? Are we back? Will it snow? Can I put the generator away?

6z Monday heavy non snow precip still going on

I mean, 18z sunday and the mix line is still south of EZF...

Gfs is colder cause the isn’t driving into Toronto

0z Monday, GFS has another slug about to roll in.

Gotta smell the sleet they say

First probabilistic snow maps out. Only goes through Sunday 7am: https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

@BornAgain13it is going to be SUPER close on thermals with initial thump as well on GFS. Hr 66 has the death band set up basically directly over the 460 corridor.

Let's see if it goes back to the quick transfer then wrap around snow

That's a loooooong precip shield at 18Z Sunday. Still all snow .

5.3” final call $

You will be able to keep beer cold outside for awhile after it.

I find that thumps in SWFEs tend to underachieve a bit and mix quicker than modeled. I think the higher ceiling depends on if the costal gets going but otherwise looks like a 6-8" to sleet type of deal for coastal areas. Those in Rockland and further NW look to be in a great spot for major snows but 6-8" would be the biggest storm in years for coastal areas so we'll certainly take that.

Much clearer predictive picture at that point- they are now working closer to the mean and not the tails- much more robust data points

It’s probably because this thread is used for medium/long range pattern prediction while threads in each sub forum are used once an individual threat becomes realistic.

GFS is colder...initially...just kinda hard to discount the NAM thermals. It does tend to do well with thermals and can serve as a warning. But it is just outside the useful range. I'd just rather not totally ignore it

Heights have been showing up a bit lower in Quebec on the 12z runs so far. The stuff out west is still amped, so it’s actually a good combo for a lot of us because it runs into an even more stout brick wall than before which will increase QPF

12z sounding is clean at DCA. Warmest is about -5C