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Latest NAM is a disaster if you are looking for rain....WB 18Z 3K NAM

12Z UKMET: again has a followup MDR TC to Invest 92L (0Z actually had 2 followups): NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 37.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.09.2025 156 15.9N 37.2W 1012 31 1200UTC 22.09.2025 168 16.7N 39.4W 1011 32

dont look at the 18z HRRR. It took us from Winter Storm Warning to maybe a dusting lol

Hugging the euro suite. It’s been a rock while everything else (maybe not GGEM) has been bouncing all over. 18z NAM 3k vs 12z is whiplash.

We'll take it:

NWS discussion: Clouds will lower and thicken further on Tue with rain or showers slowly spreading further NW through the day Tuesday. Rain/showers should reach the Route 15 corridor by Tue evening. Rain will continue off and on Tue night through Wed as coastal low gets closer to the area. The low pressure center will begin to exit the area Wed night with the rain/showers ending from west to east Wed night. Ensemble guidance suggest half to inch and half of rain may fall along and east of I-95.

Still upper 60s - low 70s

Temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s tomorrow and mainly the lower 70s on Wednesday. Readings will likely return to the upper 70s on Thursday and the lower 80s on Friday. Cooler air should return for the weekend. In terms of near-term precipitation, a cutoff system near the Delmarva could bring some showers or a period of rain on Wednesday into Thursday. Parts of the Delmarva and Jersey Shore will likely see the heaviest amounts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was -0.18 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.603 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.9° (0.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

And a drain line from my kitchen sink decided to crack and leak all over the place. best part? It was in the wall and not in the crawlspace. That would be too easy

Well shit. Jayden Daniels has a knee sprain

It's not technically tropical because it's not a "warm core" system. It's attached to a frontal boundary and has characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Regardless, the impacts on the beaches will be the same as a weak tropical storm. Erosion/Overwash in the normal places is likely in the OBX.

Jennette’s Pier in Nags Head is now gusting up to 60! Quite the coastal low EDIT: duck pier gusted to 58

Indeed. Looks rough! https://www.surfchex.com/cams/avon/

My kids were swimming off the boat on the north shore yesterday. Some of the protected harbors still in the mid 70s by late afternoon on the warmer days

Pure beauty Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Eric posted the record breaking temperature gradient a few months ago. It’s a little stronger than in 2022 which was the last year we finished below 100 ACE. So perhaps seasonal forecasts will incorporate this data during their July updates in the future when we get to the -4 to -5 sigma range.

Looking forward. CBS affiliate for true center just posted this on their socials today.

I always hope when it dries out like this that the mosquitoes won't be as bad as when it's wet. It never works out that way They're still so bad I have to wear pants and long sleeves in my yard.

Great movie! It actually looks less rainy than Apple weather shows - just showers here or there Copenhagen where we’ll be for 5 days first will be a bit warmer - mid 60s.

Just non-stop CoC everywhere.

12Z JMA completed (fwiw): Although the 72 hour map had it recurving NW seemingly way out in safe recurve land, it then turned W through 144 getting it to 21N, 62W (similar to Icon). Then it does a recurve WNW and then NW ending at 25N, 70W.

The 30th top-10 day in a row.

Congrats on getting more than here