All Activity

11AM Round up New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 87 EWR: 87 ACY: 86 LGA: 86 TEB: 86 TTN: 86 PHL: 85 JFK: 85 NYC: 84 ISP: 81

.67” this morning with loud thunder. A nice surprise

See ...there are baseline flow constructs around the entire hemisphere that are geo-physically forced. Example, western North America. The Rockies cordillera extends from Alaska deep into and through Mexico, over the western continent. That imposes a backward exertion on the prevailing westerlies of the Northern Hemisphere. The flow is directed up and over the terrain. However, it takes longer to do so than the ~ 9 hour, time dependency of the Coriolis parameter at mid latitudes; in a reference frame that induces clockwise rotation, a that force acts to turn the rising flow toward the left. This creates a subtle but significant background ridge signal that is always in place ... so long as there is always westerly prevailing flow. This is a baseline construct... This means that western N/A is favored to have heat before the eastern geographical regions of the continent. It is why the Gulf Coast can, though rarely ..., experience 0 F in the winter, despite the deep latitude. This geologic circumstance enhances cold potential and realizes a drive sending colder air mass from Canada that far S. So, with all that in mind ... since western N/A is prone to ridging, they are also favored to heat. It's like being born on second base for having wealth descendancy, and though daddy claims he didn't help his kids succeed, they still end up retiring somehow by 35. This happens all over the world, both hemispheres. There are geological regional circumstances 'built in' that favor cool vs warm, relative to the whole latitude in question and mean. And where ever is warm, there is a quicker and more frequent recurrence of heat. But here's the thing that makes this argumentative - but really shouldn't if one understands the "emergence" ... Because there are circulation changes occurring ..however subtle or gross, notwithstanding ... this may and probably does expose new routes for cool vs warm biases overall. Western Europe appears to be victim to this, as Saharan process kinetic extreme air is being drawn up across the Iberian Peninsula ... where it can assault as far N as the UK and eventually Scandinavian latitudes. The UK is ~ to Calgary, Canada ... so we're seeing temps nearing 40 C ... that's a bit of an emergence considering the frequency uptick

New around here? Lol It’s heat. Of course DC will reach 100 today, and probably will for the next 5 days

90/74

I believe that Leesburg (KJYO), but that matches the Poolesville mesonet site well.

I partially blame local media outlets too. They can put more emphasis on other sites when nessasary. Or stop saying things like, NYC has not experienced 100+ since 2012. Central Park hasnt. There have been multiple offical 100 degree readings within NYC at LGA and even JFK. Plus plenty others where ever Con Ed puts a thermometer for what its worth. They probably just don't give it much thought, since many do not have decades of real life context about NYC climate records like people here. They work in NYC media because it was the best job offer.

90/75 w/a 100F HI currently at IAD.

86/78 on the Davis here. I think my dew sensor is a little off.

82 dewpoint here. Now only if we could get thunderstorms to fire up with the heat and humidity it would be nice. My shirt was completely soaked from sweat working in the garden for 3 5 hrs. Got what needed done. Garden finally drying out from the rain we had and the irrigation that I did before we got the rain. It was basically a muddy mess you sank when you trid to get in the garden.

The interesting thing is how much of a La Niña-like influence we are currently getting with the record warm pool from the IO over to the Maritime Continent and ENSO regions. Sure we are seeing the development of the El Nino standing wave which is expected. But as the forcing shifts back west of there, we keep getting these Southeast ridge amplifications with record heat which are more La Niña-like. So much more of an overlapping influence of the multiple forcing zones. Now this has a few potential ramifications going forward. First, we would expect the El Niño standing wave to get stronger as time progresses as the record ENSO SSTs increase. Second, the record mid-latitude SSTs could also carry the Niña-like signal for more interactions going forward. So a more active Southeast ridge pattern to go along with the Nino-ridge response further north over North America. This winter will present a good real time test of the new RONI scale. If the RONI can set records along with the expected ONI ones, then we can see if the scale will be valid by what the atmospheric response looks like. If the Aleutian low and low in the south to Mid-Atlantic is weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niño like in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024, then it may just be a new character of super El Niños and not related to RONI. In this case it would point out that the RONI may not be a valuable tool in such high end super El Niño events. But more for marginal La Ninas where the WPAC warm pool is more significant than the ENSO SSTs. Since we have seen the ridges getting stronger than the troughs regardless of the ENSO phase.

As bad as it will be in much of the SE, consider that the NYC forecasted low for July 4th is a very oppressive 81 F!

This early humidity and heat is no joke. Just got a call from my youngest who is helping at a Pony Camp in Bluemont. She just passed out. She is ok but it was a wake up call that she needs to get some issues she has been having figured out. It was definitely the heat that cause it.

Mine is all brown

Have you got much rain? Seems to miss me Everytime.

Carry a few extra pony o’s with you on your travels in case you need to do more tie backs than normal due to the HHH

Steamy out there.

Reach 90? That’s silly they will get past 90 reaching 100 is questionable at least today at this point.

89 / 71 here

See my response above to GaWx…not familiar with climate reanalyzer but it’s probably pretty accurate given that AMSR2 area is very low too. NSIDC area is quite low as well, just not as low as AMSR2 or climate reanalyzer. But we aren’t that interested in getting the most accurate area measurement right now for “seasonal minimum” record purposes. We’re more interested in what can give the most accurate forecast…which I outlined above in that response.

Because it's a trust thing. If a future FA wants to come here, and they know that a 5 year commitment could be axed halfway into the first season...why would they? You get established here as the big signing, press conference and everything, big polar bear promotion...get into the community...finally settle in at the plate...and then you get shipped out immediately? Bad business when it's a player of his caliber. That kind of thing goes beyond money. Players are still human beings, man--so when they sign obviously the money is the main piece, but it is not the only thing. Commitment of more than 3 months to a top FA does matter. Why would a future FA come here knowing a team will just ship you off before giving you even one dang season?

Wouldn't it be hilarious if DCA got river winded through this entire event and failed to reach 90 degrees?

The rain the past two days has definitely helped pump up the humidity levels.

I’ve spent about 30 seconds total in the attic in the 28 years I have lived here. Actually. That was even before we bought the house. It was just during the inspection. It is a useless attic other than being an insulator.

Hagerstown be cookin.