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Looks like we could have a trackable clipper for New Year's then looks to be potential for a bigger storm from around 5th through 12th.

I vote for Jan ‘16 pattern

564dm over DC and Baltimore?

EPS is tastier than leftover Xmas cookies for D10-11

In January we really need to change the PNA. It has a higher correlation with SE or EC trough, than other months like Dec and March. +0.4 temp correlation in Jan. Hr384 of 12z GEFS is trying to change the PNA. It has a -NAO as well. I like the progression toward mid-January if it can hold going forward..

December 2025 will finish with a mean temperature below 35.0°C (coldest since 2010) and more than 6" of monthly snowfall. Below is how January fared in terms of snowfall following cold and snowy Decembers.

I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

Agree. There were some runs with more of a meso low in the Gulf of Maine, but thats trended northward and slower to develop

I had a good season 21-22 but it’s been pretty bad here. Ever since then it’s been the epicenter of porkage. Hopefully we all have a good rest of the winter.

I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

Starting NYD

Micro analyzing op runs in the LR(or even worse, whining about MBY details) is futile and annoying. Folks gonna do what they do though.

Well euro has some chances

I believe you would sign for this. Appreciate all your hard work

The 12z Euro...I don't even know what it is doing after 300. In my mind, I am kind of just tossing crazy looks. Hopefully, I am not tossing something that is going to actually happen. But the overall trend at 12z on both deterministic and ensembles is to slide the NAO towards the Davis Straits, build some type of ridging in the NAO/PNA region, Alaska stays cold(good thing I think this time around), and an evolving storm track along the East Coast. I would be really surprised not to see some sort of Arctic outbreak during January. The good thing is there is a bit more juice (precip) to squeeze since about 0z overnight. As @John1122noted, we definitely have to beware of Canada getting scoured. We have seen that during recent winters. I freely admit that could happen. I do kind of think we may see a chunk of that cold get dislodged southward and get trapped under a block until the cold just spins and burns out. I could easily be wrong. If that happens, Canada would stay cold enough.

Yeah, that looks ideal for STJ and Gulf Action on up through Hattras as you said. Man, providing there's enough cold and it looks to be, and the STJ is active enough that would be great. Edit: The only concern might be is STJ systems taking a bit too low road, especially if weak.

Perfect BLUF.

Still snowing

12z Euro active with multiple chances. I like it.

We had a very localized icestorm here two winters ago where literally the two hilltops in town near or over 1k had under .50 accretion but the next morning big winds hit with 50-60mph gusts and all hell broke loose. The rest of the town had zero ice. Every house in the neighborhood lost at least one tree or had large limbs down, of course I was in heaven but that’s how I’m programmed . Big winds on thickly iced trees is wild . https://imgur.com/a/zQzYoDx#7PlJaSM https://imgur.com/a/zQzYoDx#mbAc3Hu https://imgur.com/a/zQzYoDx#WFHuic1 https://imgur.com/a/zQzYoDx#oVK4yun https://imgur.com/a/zQzYoDx#OTESvFN

not enough QPF for ice storm warnings and we aren’t advecting in colder temps / lower dews so its more of an in situ icing with a slow climb to 32 sure it will be icy in NNE but think it will fall short of being that destructive

we are so back

Yeah, been thinking about how close that is to happening and it causing me anguish to see how a couple little Flies keep hampering it from evolving on Modeling, lol

lol us analyzing a 348 hour map. We definitely are in the shut the blinds window right now