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holy snikes. I am getting shit kicked out of me as far as downpours.go. It is raining at a full 2 inches+ an hour here in lower macungie at 4:45 pm. Flash flood warnings will be issued soon.

From elsewhere: all progging majors 12z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin--- Model peak intensity ---HWRF = 944mb/117ktHMON = 952mb/115ktHAFS-A = 932mb/126ktHAFS-B = 928mb/127kt

The HRRR did a pretty good job with that blob earlier in western MD

Uh, you have any lottery numbers you like for us Hagerstown/Frederick peeps?

Steined here east of 84

Pretty good storm rolled through here. Strong winds and some pea size hail. No power. Needed the rain

You actually don't even have to go outside if it's a really good shower. I've been able to spot lots of meteors right from my windows, I just keep all my lights shut off.

I overshot. .02”. Didn’t even get moisture under any leaf.

I really hate the moon it seems to interfere every year with this shower. Maybe one day we'll figure out a way to shut off its light (an artificial eclipse maybe?)

The problem is the same with people who drive through flash flooding, if someone has to go out there to rescue them their lives are put at risk too. So at a minimum if someone disobeys signs, they can be fined and even charged as criminals.

I hope someone gets a shower out of this.

What about if it's children or minors? Should their parents be charged if they leave them unattended and they go in the water and drown? People can go to the beach they just aren't allowed in the water, they should be prosecuted if they disobey the warnings. If someone has to go rescue them you put their lives in jeopardy too (the same thing with driving through flash floods by the way.)

Yes, I think it's a sign that we're flipping back to the 2010-2013 type summers. Where is that upper ridge right now? Is it to our southwest?

Looks like between 2-4" of rain has already fallen just north of Lancaster with a lot more to come. Not a drop at home.

Probably just some light rain when it gets here

5 weeks was absolutely amazing for snowfall amounts and snowcover. Unfortunately for summer, it's hard to find an equivalent, I guess the closest would be Summer 1980, in which the heat was concentrated in July and August. Even that had a long period of heat (8 weeks) vs the 5-6 weeks of heat we got this summer. I loved that late June period, but July was a bit of a disappointment here, not matching July 2010.

We are trying to tell them. No chance.

These storms making it to Long Island?

Second round of thunderstorms making their way into Litchfield County, CT...

87 for the high

Agreed, I would bet on a moderate to strong -PDO winter, similar to last year. The question is what does this actually mean? Cold ENSO -PDO combo is a mixed bag, it’s the warm ENSO/-PDO combo that is a death sentence for east coast snow prospects. Jan 22 had a -2.4 PDO….. and so did December 11. Some winters are clear cut going in like 23-24 and 14-15, I don’t think this going to be one of those. Speaking of 14-15, things look WAY different than they did in the summer of 14. Good call on the skepticism of the 13-14 analog last year, it was a cold winter but was also dry. I remember you brought up the fall conditions being completely different than fall of 13 as a counterargument when I and some others argued that 13-14 was a great analog. It had value, but it definitely wasn’t as good of an analog as I thought. For this year given the information we currently have I’m looking at last year, 11-12, 21-22, 08-09, 13-14, 01-02, 12-13 as early analogs. What are your early thoughts for analogs?

Take all our snow too!

They take all the canes’ and give us smoke in return lol

Looks like things popped a little more, we can use a good drink

New Moon next Saturday won't help things. Certainly 7'+ swells up my way from a storm between the coast and Bermuda are possible.