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Let's get that Bahamas low to scoot out

GFS at f78 is now less negative than even the euro. Pack it up folks.

NBM throws a few inches back towards Philly on Sunday and has most of South Jersey with over 6" I do think we likely end up with something here, Lehigh Valley might be out of luck but Philly and immediate burbs have a decent chance

Missed South...missed North...now looks like missing east! I'd take a dusting and be happy with this one.

She gone

at 78h on the 18z GFS: more progressive and south of 12z clear step back

Or until the 18z Euro pulls us back in.

Need to use the Tropical Atlantic view to really understand what GFS is doing at the surface. It's offscreen on the CONUS view.

I really hate Miller A’s. Feast or famon and more often than not, the latter.

fwiw, during the cold winters of the '70s, the longwave pattern shifted as spring neared such that we flipped to the warm side

It’s only the gfs . Absolutely no concern

How similar to the early January 2018 storm is this looking to be?

Save a pony, they will say.

Did everything just shift SE? Wow

That was an objective fact based on their model run. There was no opinion or subjectivity paired with it.

Better, way up there ...

Their futurecast graphics blow.

The 18z NBM increased totals from Knoxville and points east and has been beefing up the last several runs, FWIW

00z is last stand I think...we need a trend back west at 00z or we can punt this one I think. This is the type of threat that 2 or 3 east trends in a row is fatal.

You are truly insufferable .

Unlikely but it’s a feasible set up. Last snowfall here was 1977.

What are your thoughts regarding the possibility of cutbacks (lack of funding) to NOAA/NWS impacting model data early on and then getting better sampling later. Therefore odd model solutions

GFS finally catching on that this is not our storm!

GFS a touch flatter. No surprise, as guidance begins to tighten up

Weird. Has snow shower putting an inch in Richmond on Friday Looks like less moisture. No good for Richmond at all. GFS has caved to Euro looks like