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  2. But the storm track matched the warm winter pattern it was forecasting. The composites below are for the 20 days that .20+ of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston. The average temperature at Philly to NYC on these days was in the low 40s. So it was too warm for much snow with the storm track to the west of the I-95 corridor. The Euro seasonal precipitation forecast had above average near the Eastern Great Lakes matching the warmer storm track which verified. Plus there was major flooding in areas like West Virginia along this storm track. The Southeast ridge on the days when the wettest storms occurred was even more amplified than what the general seasonal forecast from the Euro was. Plus the warm departure on the heaviest storm days was significantly warmer than the seasonal temperature forecast. So in effect a warmer version of the seasonal forecast did occur through the storm track. The Pacific Jet was too strong and warm for much snowfall from Philly to Boston relative to the means. This has been a common theme leading to the record low snowfall near I-95 since 2018-2019.
  3. Deep summer 5 miler this morning.Felt great just the way most like it
  4. Early September is a mini-peak for severe, often as good as it gets around here. 9/7/98 is a great example
  5. Tors galore to be sure… but low clouds/ thick pea soup doesn’t scream stormy
  6. snowman19 has been pretty accurate with his predictions. Don't underestimate him.
  7. There is growing evidence that we may see a big shakeup and complete pattern flip by October to much warmer than normal and possibly much drier than normal as well. @Stormchaserchuck1 warned of this weeks ago….-PDO/-ENSO October correlation. The -IOD is magnifying those effects
  8. Walked out the door this morning and it just has that feel in the air.. today could be a good day..
  9. 1st month to end up drier than normal since January
  10. Today
  11. Seeing this graphic, I now have a new catch phrase to go along with the "Tamaqua Split" (which applies here). It's called the "Schuylkill Sandwich"... It is correct, though, as I recorded 0.21" from the Thursday event, and it shows Tamaqua in the 0.10" to 0.25" gradient.
  12. No. Conditions will become more favourable then so you are being too optimistic
  13. 0z GFS Op goes up the GOM from WC off TB 9/14, so la la land. GEFS appear to showing that dev thru mid run.
  14. Highs (9/5) EWR: 88 New Brnswck: 88 PHL: 88 TEB: 86 TTN: 86 BLM: 85 ACY: 85 LGA: 83 NYC: 82 ISP: 81 JFK: 81
  15. Made it to 87 here today. Could see 90 tomorrow if the storms don't come in too early. I see 0z HRRR hits this area hard. Looks like an interesting day for potential severe and flash flooding.
  16. Heck of a windy storm blowing through here now. Looks like the mid-state is also getting heavy rain too.
  17. A ) We don't get real severe B ) It's September
  18. Makes sense. I just thought it was weird that the sky looked smoky but the air quality was good.
  19. Ok yeah I've been to Great River, that's decent...parts of that path are a little sketchy near the highway. I like the Riverfront Park in Glastonbury better I think. Wow, Wickham looks awesome! Definitely plan on bringing him there next week.
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