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The PDO. We’ve been stuck in the most hostile PDO regime ever for like 6 years. We’ve set record low monthly values numerous times. Overall it’s been oscillating between moderately low and record low for the whole time. Until that changes and we break out of this current PDO cycle our snowfall luck won’t change much. We will continue to have god awful years with some meh kinda ok when we get lucky years but our baseline bar is going to be very low with this kind of PDO base state. We aren’t just in a -PDO. The longer term PDO cycles can last 15-30 years but within that are shorter term mini cycles and we are in an extreme -PDO cycle within the longer PDO. These are particularly hostile to snow. Yea we’ve had some previous similar cycles and those were also bad for snow. This cycle is similar WRT snowfall and what we would expect if you adjust snowfall downward for the 15-20% of snow climo we’ve lost. So this period is similar to say the extreme -pdo of the 70s and 50s but the snowfall results are about 20% worse because the whole snow climo has deteriorated about 20% regardless of the pdo. What’s troubling is this current extreme PDO is now extending past what is typical. These super negative periods don’t usually last beyond 5 or 6 years. So the were due index is through the roof. But I’ve also seen some speculation that the -PDO is being or at least enhanced by factors linked to longer term climate changes. So I guess the big question…is there another cyclical thing being added on top of the cycle we’re talking about. We should see snowfall improve once the PDO improves. But is the PDO taking on more of a negative base state in general?

GFS could be a decent fall severe weather event with several tornadoes for western and central PA Sunday. Could see a solid line of storms move across here overnight.

Even partly cloudy forecasts are not materializing. I did see mostly sunny and still see that for this area of NJ.

Actually, the forecast was for clouds between 11 am and about 2 PM (at least I think from Fox5 yesterday), however, I see your point. The NWS does say mostly sunny, while their Forecast Discussion does mention a frontal passage early this afternoon...

Dews officially dropping here once again. 66/53 at home.

Agree. We are already seeing some promising signs with a transition to a wetter pattern, which did not happen until Feb last year. Weak east based Nina, early northern snow cover build up, the early signs look pretty good. The PDO is negative, but it’s less negative than last year (-2.4 September 2025 vs -3.5 September 2024).

Ah so because one does not believe it is a significant threat (which most do not) if you fail on the 2nd part of that little test you are a Climate Denier. If that is true than are you as the dictionary says meeting the definition of a "climate alarmist" which is " a person who exaggerates the dangers of climate change and its potential impacts, often by using sensationalized language or promoting policies based on these exaggerated fears. ???

Recognizing cyclical/natural causes for climate change, alone, is insufficient. Climate change can be driven by cyclical/natural and human causes. "Climate change denial" or "climate denial" is a term that was developed to describe a position that rejects human-induced climate change. The Oxford English Dictionary defines climate denial as follows: "Rejection of the idea (or the evidence) that climate change caused by human activity is occurring, or that it represents a significant threat to human and environmental welfare."

Still a bit breezy, more sunshine, 65F. Feels much warmer than yesterday...

Again Don there is of course no such thing as a climate change denial movement - climate of course always changes correct?? That term is an example of what fake news is! Now the magnitude of any impact that man may have had on the many varied climate cycles the earth has gone through is certainly on the table... and some day it's true scientific impact may be quantified. But please keep in mind that I am not the one that chooses to use such dark language....by using the words you choose above you are indeed fear mongering. I know you really believe what you post but I really believe it does more harm than good to paint such a dark future without adequate science and proven models to support such miserable predictions.

surely there will be other windows of opportunity for late season action, but bye and large, its been a dud....and I'm totally cool w/ that.

I was thinking this the other day when I realized its been basically cali weather here since August with little rain and beautiful weather. Being a snow weenie, I feel like this drought can mean great things for the winter as the pattern has to flip to wetter soon. Or it could go the other way and patterns die hard and it stays dry through the winter. Either way I'd rather it be dry than it being active and wasting precip during the fall.

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-seas-cities-coastal-crisis-china.html

As far as the NAO, the New Foundland warm pool has formed again, as was already mentioned here. I think this winter is going to be highly dependent on the PAC again (goes without saying I know). The common theme on the seasonal models is the Aleutian ridge….does it go poleward or flat most of the winter? A -PDO is a given at this point, but how negative?

This caricature is the kind of narrative the climate change denial movement is pushing, with some success, due to the very limitations of human nature a number of us have discussed. This rhetorical move of labeling climate science as a “scary religion” and its communication as “fear mongering,” diverts attention away from measurable changes in temperature, sea level, atmospheric composition, and the role of human-induced greenhouse gas pollution in driving those changes. It reframes the issue as a matter of emotion or ideology, not science. By characterizing concern about climate change as exaggerated and predictions as “crying wolf,” it normalizes passivity and delays collective response. The premise of its strategy is to convince the public that the threat of climate change is overblown, if it exists at all. After all, if a threat is overblown or non-existent, then no change is necessary. Put another way, humanity can continue, even expand, its ongoing greenhouse gas-driven geoengineering project. Yet, sea level rise is not imaginary. Sea level rise is real. The notion that a reduction in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will result in no sea level rise whatsoever is fiction. The description of what sea level rise might look like can call attention to what will become a big problem in the future. Further, sea level rise and human futility in holding it back is not without historical precedent. Along the ancient seafront of Delos, generations of builders struggled to hold back the advancing sea. Beginning in the Classical era, they constructed an immense granite breakwater to protect the harbor from waves and erosion. Over the centuries, as the shoreline crept inland, new defenses were added: rockfills, seawalls, and massive boulders aligned along the coast. Each layer of construction, which now lies at depths of 3 to 4 meters below the modern sea, marks an episode of retreat and rebuilding, a record of determination in the face of encroaching waters. Roads and docks that once thrived with merchants and pilgrims were gradually overtaken by the rising tide. Today, the remains of these ancient defenses lie submerged beneath the Aegean Sea, preserved in successive bands of beachrock. Divers can trace their contours like pages in a drowned chronicle that bears the testimony to centuries of futile struggle against a force that could not be contained. The harborworks of Delos, once symbols of resilience and prosperity, now rest silent beneath the waves, their stones bearing witness to the city’s slow surrender to the rise of the sea. Doggerland, which now lies beneath the waters of the North Sea, provides another example of land that was reclaimed by a rising sea. Climate science has done its part. No one can even plausibly argue that "they didn't know," much less claim that the events projected by the science (more frequent heatwaves, more intense precipitation events, melting glaciers/ice sheets, rising sea levels) were matters beyond human control. Those outcomes will be a matter of choice, namely the choice to set aside the laws of physics, to continue to inject vast sums of CO2 into the atmosphere.

The NAO thing does not seem to hold much weight in the last 30 years. We have had quite a few very negative Octobers and most of those winters ended up +, obviously most winters have been + so many positive Octobers had positive NAO winters too. The most positive thing so far continues to be the NATL SST anomalies

Your B-Day in 2002 was memorable here, though with only a trace of snow on the ground. It was the first day of Maine's firearm deer season and at dawn it was 14° with gusts 30+. That would be ho-hum in January but was quite chilly in mid Autumn. (Punched my ticket with a nice critter the day after T-Day.)

Hi Hazwoper....you may not be clear on what data I use It is only for Chester County PA. It is a combo of NWS COOP Trained Spotter /AWOS /DEOS , USCR and GOES data sourced data points. If in doubt take a look at my website which lists and links to all of the data points at www.chescowx.com I draw no conclusions but do assume there exists no known climate fence around the perimeters of beautiful Chester County PA LOL!!

Yea that mostly sunny forecast is a bust

After seeing the sun for a few minutes its clouded quite a bit

so the monday event is off the table?

Probably comes about too late for my peak season forecast

@MillvilleWx

Moving to Banter... Remember that snow well. Lived in Lorton at the time at the intersection of Rt-1 and Pohick Rd. Had a class downtown DC that week. The forecast in the morning was for a dusting or very light snow, or so. My colleague from Woodbridge and I drove to the class together in his Isuzu Trooper. Having experienced surprise events in DC before we threw in some foul weather gear and a long chain and tow strap (we joked about going overboard at the time). Got to class in DC on 23rd street across between the Kenndy Center and west entrance to Dept of State HQs w/o any issues. Snow started mid-morning. By 11 it was puking fatties. USG closed soon thereafter. We made the mistake of pulling a few people out of the parking lot at the facility we were at on and that cost us precious time getting across the Potomac. Took about 3 hours to get to and through old town Alexandria. The roads around the Pentagon quickly became gridlocked on the major arteries and side streets. The news that night said there were 800+ cars abandoned just IVO of the Pentagon. Channel 4 showed video clips of commuters in dress clothes walking on 395 in both directions. After we got through Old Town things moved decently on the Mt. Vernon pkwy until about a half mile from Mt. Vernon. Two large pines fell across the Pkwy just in front of us which closed the Pkwy in both directions travel (it was a very heavy snow). We drove to the front of the stalled traffic with the Trooper and hooked up the chain to one of the pines near the top, which was out in the middle of the Pkwy. Used the length of the tree as a lever arm to pivot the tree around. Of course, w/o any weight we lacked traction to do much, even in 4-low with the center diff locked. Only moved it a few feet initially. So, we commandeered drivers from other cars for weight. We had people in the back seat, in the rear luggage compartment, hanging on the doors, sitting on the hood, sitting on top of each other - about anyplace they could get weight on the Trooper. It was like the car stuffing competitions they used to do in the 60's. Think we counted 13 plus the 2 of us, which was probably 3000+ lbs of dead weight. That did the trick. We pulled both the trees around on a pivot enough to get one lane open in both directions. It was a great example of what can be done with a little know-how and some willing cooperation to prevail amidst a desperate situation... Will never forget the cheer from all the drivers when we opened the road again. There was zero help from local authorities. It was also interesting to see the types of people around. Those who were willing and eager to help, and those who just stood by and did nothing but watch. Would not lift a hand but kept complaining about the situation. We didn't just admire the problem - we did something about it! but the ordeal was long from over. We got on route 1 southbound by Ft. Belvoir. Stood still for 30 mins w/o moving. Turned around and drove back to Ft. Belvoir, drove through the base and got to Backlick Road Northbound (before the FFCO Pkwy was extended to route 1) and managed to get to I-95 Southbound. Traffic was moving, but at a crawl. The snow was still pounding. We crawled Southbound on 95 until we got to the Pohick Road overpass above I-95. I bid by colleague farewell, got out of the Trooper and climbed over the fence along the side of the I-95 right of way. Climbed up the hill to Pohick Road, which was not easy to do even with boots on. When I got on Pohick I looked back to see about 15 other people doing the same thing, some in wingtips and women in heels. Everyone helped each other get up the steep incline onto Pohick road, where everyone went their own way. I walked about a mile the rest of the way home. From the time we departed the parking lot to when I got home was 7 hours. Took my colleague 3 more hours to get to his home in Woodbridge. We got 12"+ from the event which ended just before sunset. Yes, it can snow here in November.