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I think the final week or so of the month could be above average but I can see things kind of changing moving through December...but we all know how this works. We've seen plenty of times these last several years where models break down patterns and yield favorable looks past D10 and it never verifies. My really main worry with moving into December is we get wave breaking across the west coast then troughs begin to weaken and lift northeast while pumping up a ridge out ahead. The ridges won't be long lasting but will be timed with storms and then we deal with cold on the back end with snow showers while ski areas up north cash in. I get very, very cautious when it comes to needing the PAC to breakdown. We need to see something in the short term that indicates this will happen. Hopefully we can win with threading the needle early on.

You NNE guys live on another planet up there. Unreal....The pictures are awesome

Getting in rare territory at the stake with only 3 of the past 66 years having more depth at this date

I share your enthusiasm for snow and many on the forum will say that I still post too many "clown" snow maps, ( I think I'm a better poster now with the excellent constructive feedback I have received) but there is nothing here....when I see many members showing 3 or more inches of snow inside 7 days, I start watching. You will be able to post the above most of the season and you won't see a flake east of the mountains. With this system, at this time it is weak sauce on the EPS and just too warm. WB 12Z EPS.

I’ve had a chance to put together a few shots from Tuesday’s outing for that interesting storm that hit the lower valleys just about as much as the mountains, so I figured I’d follow up with those. I don’t think there are any major updates I need to make to my text report, except that I do recall there was a bit of a crust in the snowpack due to some mixed precipitation that fell at some point during the event. Thankfully, it was an interior layer because new snow had fallen on top of it, so it didn’t derail the turns like it might have had it been a surface crust. Any mixed precipitation is really buried now though – as PF noted, our current storm lit up the mountains last night with some very potent accumulations. I’ll report on that as soon as I can put some material together.

Weather World says majority of the next 35 days below normal

Expected Tgiving torch now showing up on schedule https://twitter.com/scweather_wx/status/1989032413683675587?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Another fire danger day. Just had a gust to 39 and humidity has dropped to 22%

Awesome. How much is he asking for a monthly subscription?

Thanks Timmy boy! If only you understood and lived in the world of reality....but never mind! LOL!!!

We tried to tell ‘em…

It’s ripping

Looks like the cold is going to center in the rockies/northwest first and we have a big ridge until the end of the month

12z GEPS

Interesting

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-has-formed-winter-2025-2026-latest-impacts-el-nino-reversal-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

From what little I remember, the Gulf Stream/Labrador Current circulation has been slowing down, raising the NYC metro area temperatures 4 to 5 degrees warmer than normal?

But didn't Kevin say we have a big warm-up for Thanksgiving? Lol

Funny, on meteorologist. Gil Simmons live blog he does every morning. He mentioned this morning that he's really liking the period of December 9th through the 14th. Kind of bold going out that far at this point. He also did mention a couple of earlier chances as well. All good signs at this point

dendrite should ban you for posting that

I follow Max with severe weather but what's his track record with winter?

If this was roulette... we would think the wheel was rigged.

I would really take any of those winters other than 24-25. 16-17, 17-18 and 21-22 were at least okay here. 17-18 of course was the biggest, 16-17 and 21-22 were okay to good. Thanks for the detailed analysis and thoughts.