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GFS/CMC/RGEM/12k NAM say what rain is this? 3k NAM and now the Hrrr finally show some isolated spots of heavy showers

ehh I don't think it's fair to say the system underperformed. I am assuming you are referring to July 3? Based on the reports received and on the SPC page, the watch certainly verified. Remember, there is nothing in the definition of a watch which measures or accounts for how widespread wind criteria/hail will be. The definition just relates to having ingredients favorable for thunderstorms to become strong to severe. But in terms of the rainfall, when it comes to thunderstorms things can become extremely localized and there just aren't enough reporting stations to fully capture what can/may be ongoing at a local level. For example, one town could get slammed under a thunderstorm and get 0.50"...0.75"...even 2" of rain while a town or two over just on the edge barely get 1/10th of an inch. Sometimes too with thunderstorms, it isn't about how much rain falls as much as it is about how much rain falls in an x amount of time. 0.75" of rain total may not be much but if that is falling in like 30 minutes...that could lead to some brief problems.

Just missing the rain here in Silver Spring after a shower around 1030-11am. Heavy stuff east

We had about an hour of sun this morning and cloudy ever since. Low to mid 80s on all of the local stations.

80F here. Someone please hold me

Heavy rain and Thunder here at work in Easton.

Wanted to follow up on this as I ran the numbers for the Great Lakes region of MI/OH/IN for a nice round number - 100 years. This way every station starts at the same time. Actually, 100 years would seem to be a logical number for many graphs, but in all actuality it is a very unpopular one for the "since 1970" crowd. Im not posting 22 graphs but the numbers are easily verifiable. This shows the January temperature change over the last 100 years, from 1926-2025. Michigan shows essentially no change (+/- 0.5F) while Ohio and Indiana have gotten colder. I included Ann Arbor because while it is not a first order station, it is a station that has remained in the same spot since 1880 (at U of M), so no location change. Although, even a location change cannot account for the outrageous claim of average temperatures rising some 10-15F in NE OH as was alluded to in a previous post. Michigan Houghton Lake: -0.5F Detroit: -0.4F Flint: -0.1F *Ann Arbor: 0.0F Grand Rapids: 0.0F Saginaw: +0.3F Lansing: +0.3F Alpena: +0.4F Muskegan: +1.0F Ohio Dayton: -2.9F Wilmington: -2.8F Cincinatti: -2.0F Youngstown: -1.9F Columbus: -1.4F Mansfield: -1.4F Toledo: -0.8F Cleveland: -0.9F Akron: -0.2F Indiana: Evansville: -1.4F Indianapolis: -1.1F Fort Wayne: -0.9F South Bend: -0.3F

These 75°+ dewpoints have become the new normal for us over the last decade. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=yes&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=12N&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=js https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=yes&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=12N&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=js

AFDs will not infrequently add qualifiers like "heavy" or even "torrential" (have seen both from GYX). Also, crying "wolf!" too often can lead to complacency. GYX/CAR appropriately had both CWAs entirely in SVR-watches. There were several warned storms and a lot of fierce-looking radar. Only a handful if sites reported 1"", none over 1.5", and local cocorahs reports here were more like 0.12". The ingredients were there, the watches posted, but the system underperformed.

Seriously though the worst part of this different climate is the absurd levels the dewpoints reach now on a routine basis.

Sounds like a fine day to take the family out for some fun in the Sun.

This has been an issue for so long that I kind of gotten used to it.

I am closer to the lake than you. We missed out on the showers you referenced.

And that just spurred a whole line of thought... Some sort of collector at a significant height above the ground above a vertical farm with some sort of spinny power generator turned by the water on it's way down. Food, power and water and they could be just about anywhere. Maybe the first floor has a green market selling fresh produce to the neighborhood too.

91 actually. Dew 77.

Not quite 50 but close enough - 7/31/76 was the date of the Big Thompson River (CO) flash flood that took 144 lives plus a handful of others never found. One hopes that disaster remains at the top (maybe "worst" more appropriate).

Point of view is the epicenter of the heaviest rains at this time, slowly moving ENE, but honestly hard to get a perfect idea of motion as it spirals. Soon the heavens will open up on the Western Shore.

My heat index was over 120 two days so I disagree

Pushing 90 here. Lots of clouds and showers.

And even with such low ACE, the two landfalling systems brought catastrophic impacts to relatively localized areas of the country.

You've been saying that for weeks and I have a burnt lawn to show for it.

You are right about the humidity. It's overcast out and I'm still sweating profusely just sitting in a chair outside.

I mean, it was only fitting that the torch winter of 2001-02 ended with an early season heatwave in mid-April, as a cherry on top.

87/80

Next 7 days look pretty meh. Lots of clouds and showers