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Correct. It's an insane run temp wise.

you do not want any significant sleet on top of a snow pack and cold temps that will take longer for the snow to eventually melt.in the cold that follows.

I think this is the typical as the precip tapers lightens up it no longer can pull the cold air through the column and resulting in a little Frz snizzle pellets then cold air crashes back down for another period of snow 1-2” typical in lot of our 12”+ storms.

and on behalf of the B string, some of us have shared that same point - this has a more progressive tilt that runs into heavy antecedent cold dome, so while taint is a possibility, this is the kind of event that being east of the apps insulates us from those worries. Now if that cutoff stalls and digs more in the future, well then I guess taint could make a run deeper into central Pa. if trough goes more neg tilt. Downer is what Mt Joy suggested, we went from suppressed to primary trying to cut, with 3 days to go. Like you said, CAD is stoudt and should do its thing. We hope.

I like that it gives close to the same output for most of us, despite a different path than GFS. GFS has 20”+ where Euro has that tongue signature. Would be sweating it more in through there.

I don't think it will match January 2024 here.

I've learned over the years since moving here in the 1990s to never discount winds rolling into the valley from the mountains. Worst miss I ever saw was in the 90's (early 90s). I remember listening to a weather radio in my dorm at ETSU the day before a big snow storm. 12-16 inches of snow was in the forecast and right before going to bed I listened and the NWS updated the forecast to be 16-20". The next day it rained. Not even that much................. was a total bust. I didn't know it at the time, but it was downslope that not only warmed us into the upper 30's and low 40s, but it also cut the amount of precip that actually fell by 90%.

72 hours ago, S OH was in for maybe a couple of inches, according to the GFS, etc. Now we are on tap for 8? 10? It’s been a fun storm to track for the last day or so.

Timing?

BAM thinks the CMC and UK are off their rockers.

96-120 hours out. We should know better to take any model as gospel.

I mentioned that yesterday. To me that's a bigger anomaly than the snow.

I definitely am more worried about over amped than suppressed BUT that seems a bit of an exaggeration. Chicago has a 1045 high right over it as the system is organizing to the south in just 60 hours...that would take a pretty freaking radical failure (models are much better inside 100 hours than they used to be) for this to end up THAT much further NW than say the GGEM run this morning. The mid level track is troubling...but we've seen things offset that before...look at last February when the upper level trough was back over OHIO and the VA capes got a big snowstorm. There is an arctic high in the way here and a 50/50 with a TPV lobe right over us as the system starts to develop, that does change the equation somewhat.

"It's time for your nap now, pops."

Looking at everything, I think some here are really hung up on the sleet mixing and not enough on the absolute drubbing that WAA pattern is going to bring for the thump up front. This is a setup that can rival the Feb 2014 thump in places. The initial 4hrs when snow becomes heavy too will be big beautiful dendrites in the stronger bands. 1-2”/hr rates likely with some bands >2”/hr considering the strength and depth of the FGEN and DGZ, respectively. If you can remember 2014, there was 2’ of snow in Mt. Airy and not a single model showed that until it basically on top of us. Use climo, know your area for who usually hangs on to snow the longest. This will be a crazy beatdown prior to any flip. Lowlands will mix, metros will mix, eastern shore will mix, and mix will likely make it to I-70….it is what it is. It’s the nature of an upper pattern closing off west of where we want it. However, the snow will come in hot and heavy and last for a while to bring in some great totals, the biggest of which some have seen in a decade. Thermals will be situated as we get into Friday and the NAM Nest comes into line. That’s the model I want to see. That piece of guidance usually sucks, but it does do well at showing the thermal progression while sucking otherwise. It’s gonna snow y’all!! As for Southwest VA, it sucks this shift happened so abruptly. I wasn’t anticipating THIS much of a shift, but there will be some heavy heavy snow upfront before driving sleet. It will be a high impact scenario for so many. And the cold afterwards is NO JOKE!! This isn’t going anywhere.

I think the models will probably start to decrease precip amounts and come more in line with what reality will be.

THIS. I don't get the eeyoreing. At least not yet.

This is bigger. The last time we had something like this was 2016. This is a KU storm through and through.

Let's hope. It still irritates me how they messed up the Jan 1996 blizzard measurements. That should be a 24plus storm but somehow at the end they gave us 20. Newark airport measured 28 LGA 24 and right in the middle 5 miles in either direction a 20 from Central Park. That was the days of the infamous Central Park zookeeper doing the measurements.

Trying to figure EPS on Pivotal. Generally looks really good. Less amped than Op. Comparing to 0z looks a bit drier and flatter. On the mean probably stays all snow for DC and N/W? It’s close.

It's been bleak...

When heavy precip is falling and ice is all over everything, it's much harder to warm surface temps than models indicate. Especially in deep valleys.

Well that is certainly disheartening.

This is reminding me of GHD 2011. I'm not sure why the trends are pulling this so far north. Personally, I do not want to be in the bullseye two days out, but isn't this the time when the models lose the cold air and try to say it's going to be warmer than it ends up being?

2021? .