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I have my doubts about the totals at DCA. Currently, the lowest forecast temperature is 33 degrees at 7 am Monday. If the forecast temperature goes lower, I'll reconsider.

All the good winters are usually exhausting and peppered in with busts, bad luck and wasted potential 14-15 was a great winter but exhausting and frustrating at the same down here WOR. Same with 17-18 many busts that winter and still ended up with near 60". Could have been 80-100.

Yeah this is what you want to start seeing for the potential for a big dog, a bunch of members inside the BM tucked in near ACK. It's the first run of the GEFS to really do that. Mean went way up as expected 6Z 00Z 18Z

It wasn't quite done..

Hey all can we not tell folks to go tf away for asking questions? @clskinsfan lol

Waking up to 58 with a line of storms about to cross over the border. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

I swear if this winds up being a rain storm I'd be more angry than if it whiffed, aside from putting a dent in the drought

06z NAM has zip. 06z Ukie has rain from the city south at 66 hours. It’s like these models are all in separate worlds.

The GFS feels like that very far western ensemble member that keeps giving you hope. Except this time, it hasn't budged while the eastern envelope has shifted closer towards it. We're narrowing the goal posts: the western post staying put and the eastern post shifting west. Usually we see a 50/50 compromise, maybe 40/60. This time maybe 25/75 or 20/80. It's just been unusual this go around seeing models move towards the GFS. Again, Delaware and coastal Jersey seem to be the place to be right now

GFS is a little west of other guidance right now with pivoting that vortmax around the ULL in the OH valley area. It let’s it curl up closer to the Cape.

Actually, just woke up. I’m on day shift

Seems like the heavy rain band is like 100mi north of where it was progged? Was supposed to be right through DC and it’s in southern PA?

For the love of god please don’t be a head fake

Waiting for the Euro/anything else to jump on. What a tough forecast.

'The Waiting' (is the hardest part) by Petty is appropriate as well... 35F/Rain

How much rain are we getting this weekend?

WPC Discussion: ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...Day 3...*** Nor'easter develops off Mid-Atlantic Coast late Sunday withimpacts in the Northeast through Monday ***Complex phasing is expected to result in coastal low developmentoff the Mid-Atlantic coast later Sunday with rapid intensificationas it shifts northeast Sunday night/Monday. Guidance is somewhatcoming into consensus with a surface low track east of where theGFS and west of where the EC have been. The preferred track remainswith the EC-AIFS which the 00Z run did nudge south a bit for Sundaynight. The extent of the precip shield will be critical to heavysnow banding on the NW/W side of the low. Non-uniform precip shielddepiction from guidance such as the EC is likely given the complexinteraction of mid-level and low level low centers. The Day 3 snowprobs for >6" are 40-60% for central MD through southeast PA,southern NJ and much of the Delmarva Peninsula. The rapid lowdevelopment and approach of rather strong surface high pressureto Ontario will lead to a sprawling wind field over the easternU.S. which will enhance snow impacts under heavy TROWAL bands.Please stay tuned for further details.The greater confidence is for upslope snow on the centralAppalachians in NW flow on the back side of the system Sundaynight. Great Lakes moisture encounters the topographical lift withDay 3 snow probs for >6" 40-80% above about 1500ft to the AlleghenyFront in WV and far western MD.Jackson

All 3 of those tighten the system and because of the cleaner phase keep the good qpf well south and east though. Not sure we want a clean phase unless it happens alot sooner and farther NW. If you want the possible big dog then yes, full clean phase. If you want guaranteed low end SECS then roll the dice with more separation and the PVA precip followed by the ull/ivt stuff. What i dont like about the full clean phase is we increase the chances significantly for a rug pull last minute. Tho i suppose thats the chance we take when rooting for a big dog always.

Not the Poke at something while it's down, but I generally ignore them as well... but i still don't buy the GFS

6z Ukie big time improvement as well

6z Ukie big time improvement as well

We wait for Dr. No:

At this point BOX seems to be completely ignoring the GFS ...

P7 and P26 on the rocks please .