All Activity

in case you wanted to see it really close up for our area

Similar to the 00z HRRR and got some warmer air up into PA. AGC holds on for another solid run. G'night all.

Euro and HRRR kuch maps with identical outputs for Baltimore. Go figure

That is a powerful blast of warm air at the surface narrowly shooting all the way to Pennsylvania. I guess we will find out soon if that is in the cards.

The snow is way ahead of schedule. It is now showing on my app the snow will start here at 2.45. It’s also snowing down in Oxford.

WB 6Z HRRR at 1 am Monday

We get a seriously insane amount of sleet from 18z-21z. Like .5" of QPF

WB 6Z HRRR at 4pm Sunday

We are a little over 24 hrs from this baby starting and this place is a morgue. Brutal. Guess it isn’t like the old days.

I'm skeptical of how much warming reaches the surface. I've seen mountain tops in the 50s and valley temps near freezing in these set ups. Seeing the cold get completely scoured with ice on the ground isn't terribly common.

Still way out there for the HRRR but I’ll accept it

I'm very curious to see how the surface temps play out in east TN. MRX has Knox hitting 42 and HRRR currently shows 40 peak, but 3k NAM only 35. We'll most likely have a nice heavy cleansing rain to wash away the slop, but it'll be interesting to see how much the surface temps climb with this much variation in the modeling still. Also will be interesting to see what if any backside thump of snow is possible as the 850s crash.

Incredible run honestly. DC gets about .1 more QPF vs 00z through 1pm

Flip over to all sleet in DC metro is around noon or so

WB 6Z HRRR at 1 pm Sunday; DC start to flip around 11 am; about an hour later than OZ run.

Seems later then a lot of other guidance eh? .

DC up to 7" by 10am Sunday and still ripping on HRRR...tho we're about to flip

I certainly understand there's many people out there who just want to know what's actually going to happen in weather, nothing else. And that's personally fine with me. But it's always better when people would like to (or are willing, more specifically), learn about the meteorological science & parameters in order to really understand what *can* happen. Especially nowadays where it seems like every year we pass now has its own bizarre pattern or systems that are getting more complicated to break down in meteorology.

WB 6Z HRRR steadier snow by 6am Sunday.

Adjusted WSW to 7-13 now which I completely agree with. Front end thump will bring the goods followed by sleet/ZR. It's gonna be a mess

WB 6Z HRRR: light snow breaking out about 2am Sunday.

The primary forcing aloft from the parent trough out west isn't forecast by the reliable models to start overspreading the state until later today - tonight. Which is why I've been stating the main deal (especially for convective ice/sleet) is going to be primarily Saturday night. It's common to have "lull" or large gap areas of little or no precip between lead shortwave activity like what's ongoing in the state tonight. I have not seen the RRFS in action at all for winter wx events yet. But it does have its moments for MCS (mesoscale convective system) propagation through the state in the spring time.

honestly, 24 hrs in, the HRRR looks a lot like the euro. Less juicy for some reason, but so far tracking very similarly

ya later on this afternoon they will probably go into more detail

I expect they'll correct that later.