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There definitely looks to be a warm period next week as the western ridge finally slides east. After that, there's reasons to think the pattern could be workable for parts of the region next weekend and beyond. Key feature would be the continued west based -NAO and to a lesser extent the AO. Based on stratospheric discussion the past few days, there could be some flux in the polar domains which may affect predictability farther out. The EPO is currently modeled to trend strongly positive for a time, but then become less strongly positive. A positive EPO certainly points towards a generally warmer pattern. But the magnitude matters, and in February, a -NAO could do more work given the thick snow and ice cover over Canada vs earlier in the season. The way I see it, the risk is absolutely there for warmer systems, but the -PNA at least gives a chance for decent storms coming out of the southwest. Since it appears the NAO should remain generally negative, you can still get snow/ice threats even in an unfavorable EPO setting (assuming that holds as modeled). Seems like a pattern in which being farther west and north would tend to be more helpful with a fairly potent southeast ridge favored. I'd prefer to roll the dice with this than more endless cold northwest flow. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

12z UK hits southern VA good

GFS

It looks like the one is taking a picture of the others. I would.

I think that lasts 2 years, but could be 4...it's been awhile.

Yes IRR

It's funny for a retired met we never see any real data from you.What is your depth. If you need lessons we can provide official methods

Cold morning with -10's/-20's inland with +/- sd's along the shore. -29 the lowest I've seen at Seagull Lake up on the border. Because of the clear, calm conditions, temps did a quick sunrise drop at some locales.

It's 11am lol

I wonder if everyone's thermometers are being impacted by reflected sunlight from the snow? The commercially available ones are generally shielded from above, so reflected light from below could raise them?

Thank you/him for his service. He is in the IRR, I assume? Hopefully not recalled....good luck.

RAP illustrates my thoughts. Need to be able to get moisture and the cold to push far enough south, before cold/dry air shuts off the moisture. Moisture North of the warm front may be somewhat limited but concentrated in a band or two that may over perform. The RAP is a bit further north than the rest of guidance, so I would expect the green zone to set up right along I85

A cumulative ice + snow map might be more interesting, though that won't make most in Middle TN any happier. Glad I somehow got in the blue.

It’s going to be extremely band-dependent with isolated accumulation but whoever gets a band can probably do 2 maybe 3”. Agreed, think border counties/Southern Va best shot. Will not be widespread accumulation anywhere

Grandson just finished his 4 years now home but seems recall is very possible

Torching here in Mount Joy.... up to 32.4.

Interesting. Looking at everybody's temperature reports, it seems the airport temperatures are usually cooler. But one would think it would be the other way around with all the asphalt?

Seems to be slightly overdoing the cooling caused by snow cover.

Some know some ski in Vermont

doesn't look like we will hit it today.. streak continues

Nah, I love Steve...we can take round houses at one another with no animosity it's been so long haha. We are both pig-headed.

I'm the same especially based on how the GFS has been this winter. It's like the boy that cried wolf. I blame Ralph. Every time someone blurts out "Buckle Up" The pattern relaxes and we are here bitching about the lack of precip. We got a few more weeks to keep an eye on then the pattern will ease, and then we all know how bi-polar March is when it comes to weather. By then I am mostly checked out as I want the warmer weather, and I want to get back into my garage drinking escapades on the weekends. In other news there were a couple flakes flying this morning in West Chester.

In fact, I think the depth is increasing yesterday and today.

The coldest 10 day stretch back in February 2015 was .1 warmer as that month was more about the longer duration February cold. 16.8 2026-02-02 16.9 2015-02-21