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Been in this area for 10 winters now, odds are go low with this, especially this early in the season. Maybe 1-2 before changing over to heavy rain and 34 degrees. Your elevation may help a bit compared to me, but I suspect we all flip pretty quickly. So, me around an inch, you 2ish? Hope I'm wrong and the Euro is closer to correct on thermals and low placement/strength. Still plenty of model runs to go, so I suspsect some fluctuations, hopefully not towards the Nam solutions...

That sad hour

This system would have to snow at 4"/hr rates to load those numbers. I dunno. just sayn'

I'll sign. Would like to see the 1" line close to I-95, but this is decent for 12/1, IMO.

I don’t see that happening one bit.

Finished with 8.3” and a peak wind gust of 43mph, just an awesome awesome storm!

Mount Holly for my area late week. Brrr Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Friday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

He’s been looking more like Jerry lately.

Question is: Does the night shift dick at CTP pull the trigger or do they wait until the virga starts moistening up?

NWS local forecast for Columbia on Friday is some sun, hi 33. Good start for the weekend.

Happy hour is T-2” for next weekend for many

Dare I say GFS looks reasonable?

Man that would be the snowiest December in a a decade down here in Baltimore County.

You should cash in, looks like you're in the sweet spot.

You’ll get more than here

Euro should be similar to 12z maybe some wiggle that's basically noise

Really close call here. GFS pivotal maps have like 8" here and 2" in Ellington. Surface temps on most modeling get up to around 33 with the 850 O line right over my fanny at the height of the storm. I would prefer to be about 10-15 miles NW. I'm going with a cautious 2-4"here in this part of the valley as a first estimate.

Fun colors on the 18z UKMET

I won't. That thing is dead nuts.

Just looking through modeling and catching up some(yes, I was at that abomination of a ball game yesterday...but still enjoyed being with my family!), there are some really close calls in the medium range. IF modeling is incorrect about the strength of the cold incoming, areas north of I40 could see some frozen precip. This is something that will have to monitored with each event. Seems like we have a Gulf system in that window where systems are lost. Let's see if it reappears.

I keep checking bluesky to see whether HM ( aka Anthony M. ) posted any updats regarding his December weather thoughts. Not seeing anything. I know someone posted a while back he was enthused for this Jan.

Looks like a good thump of snow for 6-8 hours or so before turning over. I'd take it.

I'll be shocked if the EURO doesnt move a bit at 18z

18Z GFS still holding on for Friday.