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Nope, Going to need more then just a one run showing, And i don't care how many days out we are, When things go right you see some direct hits with models and you have some east, And when its all said and done you get them moving to a consensus in the middle but we have had none of that.

It’s overcast here and you can feel a south breeze. You must be in an isolated hole

Haven't been paying much attention to the epic fog threat, so i have no idea but. Vis on surrounding ASOS have gone up for the most part around here, but there seems to be some pockets of more dense fog <1SM

Show me the euro has a storm storm storm, I’m tired and I want to go to bed. I saw the GFS about an hour ago and it’s gone right to my head.

Looks like an inverted trough type setup. Those are notoriously hard to pin point outside of very short term. I wouldn't bank on that happening, probably why NWS isn't to excited.

More time of what? For you to alienate your family for the rest of the week? It's not about time....certain things I need to see to distinguish this from the usual modeling antics we have seen.

A lot of patchy coverage on lawns especially that get sun during the day. Upper 30s and fog is where you start really doing a number on the snowpack.

You ever look in a storm's eye, Chief?

Yes, I'm not playing that stupid game this go around.

Yeah, lots of wasted potential. Starting with that Feb 1-2 tease.

Hoarfrost starts the thread, chief.

Agreed....this is why I need to see 00z at least hold to even consider taking this seriously.

OK, honest thermodynamics/atmospheric physics questions that has puzzled me for a long time. Right now my temp is 60.3 °. Temps are dropping very slowly. Sometimes on nights like tonight's the temps completely steady out. The ground is warm so it radiates energy at a high rate. To slow (or even stop) the temperature decrease, something must be adding energy, but what is it? The sky is clear so there is no downwelling radiation from clouds. There is no wind so there is no warm-air advection or turbulent mixing. Where is the energy coming from? Is it radiating from the water vapor in the air?

The EPS has an intriguing look late in the 11-15 day. Pacific a hair better, but some weak NAO ridging showing up with a mean trough more in Midwest.

That would be the tenor of the month

Going to make a relatively brief synoptic analysis of why I actually sorta like this setup IF we get a H5 setup akin to the GFS or CMC.

You would have to believe we can at least cash on one this winter, Its been a run of bad luck that has to end at some point.

OMG, can you imagine how much it actually snowed in the 1890’s. We won’t be able to leave our house for months.

He's gonna go under!

can’t write off anything time to sleep on it and see how things look in the morning

Hopefully it doesn’t back that ass up west only to leave us drunk, covered in glitter and whacking it to pretty 5H charts

my gut is this is the typical 6/18Z flopping we just saw with Feb 16-17 coastal and Feb 1-2 SE scraper. Hopefully im wrong on that and 00Z continues a W trend.

One fail at a time please.

Storm can’t go down with east ticks on him. Not with east ticks it can’t.

Can’t argue that