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Today’s 2 week MJO forecasts: GEFS/EPS agree on longest winter phase 8 in 50 years that starts on Wednesday:

Yea, that is the next bonafide threat...will probably hit that up late week.

What is your problem with my post regarding the models?? Lol

December opens up with a morning low of 6F and a snow depth of 7” Below zero temps likely later this week.

ineedsnow's idea sounds about right for us. Probably closer to 6 than 10. But slightly concerned about power issues with the column potentially looking like this:

Will be the new replacement for Nam and hrrr. Sometime in 2026 but it still needs work.

I never really saw the appeal...I kept looking for something to write about, but never found anything.

Taking over for the nam when they shut it down.

lol some things never change around here

WTF is the RRFS?

The RRFS has the snow line just N and W of BOS for what it’s worth. Still shows a latitude issue in CT.

Saturday looking like crap now

Loving the end of the EPS run. You can see the ridging in the eastern PAC moving east towards the west coast.

Someone named snowcrazed disagrees with me. Lol. The Nam is not in its range and is way to zonked with QPF. Gfs is still warm aloft. Better for Kevin but not great S and W. CT is a big state. I don’t even know where you are. I said Kevin’s area is still the highest area of uncertainty and so did Will.

With ratios looking to be up to 20:1, my call is 4.5" here.

I will be there...Funky Murphy's @ 3pm Saturday.

Cold ENSO Winter: PNA Dec to Jan -1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97 -1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63 -1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63 -1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16 -2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61 -2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29 -2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55 -2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97 -2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28 -2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01 -2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22 -So, ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans -Moreover, the 3 strongest -PNA Decs were followed by the 3 strongest +PNA Jans: Dec 2021: -2.56; Jan 2022: +1.01 Dec 2010: -1.78; Jan 2011: +1.29 Dec 1984: -1.60; Jan 1985: +1.63 Euro Weeklies and ext-GEFS PNA forecast are both going for a solid -PNA in Dec: Based on the likelihood of a -PNA this month, January per the pattern of the last 40 years is likely to have a +PNA.

Kidding aside…consensus would’ve worked well when you start blending in the extremes like the euro/nam. It was just really stubborn until the end.

Completely agree. I posted earlier this has a similar track as December 5/6 2009 with rain and white rain on the coast and snow inland. Unfortunately I had to witness this over and over again growing up in the 80s and 90s lol. Warm wet/cold dry. Good setup for the Middle Atlantic and great lakes though!

Ping ping ping...

Rule #3 You guys are dumb

Top ten candidate for post of the year!!!!

Euro is prob gonna win the compromise on the track closer to the BM…we’ll see. But it def was decently too cold in thermal profiles. But it’s had that issue for a few seasons now.

...and the surprise is????

I get that other guidance has got better, But you use to be able to lock the Euro inside 84hrs, Those days are gone.