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I don’t know if I’d call Fridays Storm a grinch…at 6 days away from Xmas, a little to far away from Xmas imo. But just my opinion.

This is what I mean when I say I am a winter weather weenie. Morning temperatures in the teens even here in the Urban heat island. Snow cover that sticks around for 48 plus hours and it's before December 21st. Invigorating!

I would love to pull off one major storm before my next semester starts so I can at least enjoy it alot more. Keep em ripping after that but will be harder to enjoy/dig deep into the forecasting pocket for. I am cautiously optimistic for early January...the pattern may not be entirely supportive for a biggie but it could be active. We also may introduce some southern stream involvement...I don't see the southern stream being active, but if the southern stream can shoot some energy our way and phase up with a northern piece...there's our biggie potential

I was just noticing small bodies of water frozen over around Boston on the drive in this AM.

The end of the 06z GFS run is how I would hope to see things evolve and seems like a realistic evolution. Not every detail of course. Significant GL block develops, it takes several cutters and NS systems to feed the developing 50/50ish low. Eventually, the vortex trapped under the GL block becomes the dominant low compared to the one in the GOA/west coast. I don't see the GOA low vanishing but with ebbs and flows we get PNA spikes of varying degrees.

Saw that. We need that trough NW of Oregon to get pinched off and shoved to the west allowing the ridges in western Alaska and the American SW to link.

I can’t remember who was asking but the report from Boston is that the Charles basin is pretty much fully frozen over. Looks thin and will probably not last through the grinch on Friday. But still rare for December.

Not a bad list there on the bottom-

Good to see you back! How are you doing health-wise?

With this much time left on the winter calendar figure a 2 week window of opportunity still ahead; where the pattern becomes favorable again for snow. Until then "back to our regularly scheduled programming" seems to characterize things well.

Thanks. That’s based on my 1st list, which is of those Decembers that had 1+ days dipping lower than -3.48. But those Decembers didn’t necessarily have a solid -WPO dominating through the entire month. One of those Decembers, 1996, actually averaged a +WPO overall. Also, 1983 and 1977 didn’t average a negative enough WPO. And there were a bunch of Decs left out of that 1st list that had a very -WPO with it dominating throughout but that didn’t have at least one day dip below -3.48 like 2013, 2010, 2009, 1995, 1980, 1961, and 1956 that make them good -WPO Dec analogs. OTOH, the 2nd list included some that weren’t -ENSO through the winter or at all like 2009, 1989, 1980, and 1956. In addition, 2005 and 1995 had a moderate or strong +PNA in Dec. So, what are we left with for the best analogs based on solid -WPO throughout Dec, -ENSO through the winter, and a moderate to strong -PNA in Dec? 2013, 2010, and 1961. Of these three, the PNA flipped to positive in Jan in 2014 and 2011 and to neutral in Jan of 1962. So, the closest -ENSO/Dec -WPO/Dec -PNA analogs are 2013, 2010, and 1961.

I doubt the Syosset 9” is accurate either.

Interesting new study confirming other recent studies that the cold pool in the North Atlantic is more a sign of the atmospheric patterns rather than an AMOC decline. Anthony Masiello ‪@antmasiello.bsky.social‬ Follow Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. ‪Sang-Ki Lee‬ ‪@sklee621.bsky.social‬ · 1mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org 11:10 AM · Nov 12,

WB 6Z GFS at fantasy range at the end of its run is not torch or flat.

I want to try and get one more deep winter day in before the bottom falls out. It's going to be 38-40 here in the lowlands with mud and melting snow. My idea is to go out to the Catoctins and hike at higher elevation. The thing is. I know it can be warmer at higher elevation when warm is moving in. Does anyone know the forecast temps up on top of the Catoctins for today?

It was pretty unlikely that they would start off 1-5, but they did. The OL is what it is but if Lamar is getting back to full health he can mask some of that mess, and if the defense continues to play respectable or better, they can win the next 3. Packers on the road is the toughest one on paper, but they are a bit beat up and can be inconsistent.

I’ll be working outside in a t-shirt today. High of 40. Let’s do this! 6am Snow Depth at MSP - 9”

9 degrees in Palmyra with a fresh coating of snow.

thank you i knew that report was bogus and inflated. I took it out of the final map im working on

Looks pretty set that through around new years the east is going to be NN to AN and the only source of cold would be a sneaky high building in from New England (would get us cold enough so that people laugh at those calling for a torch but not actually provide winter weather shots). NAO now looks to stay slightly negative or neutral, so not much of a factor. PNA is going to stay deeply negative. I hope this is a reset and not a new base state for this winter. This would require an active STJ and with the pacific raging that isn’t going to happen. I get it with NAO going neutral to slightly negative and ridge building over the Midwest, so we’ll have back door fronts and wedge opportunities, but there isn’t any moisture. Dry and near normal through new years would be the best forecast call for the region. Probably a few AN days thrown in

Fell to 15.6 just after midnight, then a very slow climb to 17.5 at 7 am CoCoRaHS report, 11 degrees warmer than yesterday.

Exceedingly rare.

Prolific overunning can be a major snow.

I would take 1996 and run relative to what I have had recently...December was nice, and had an early April event for the ages.