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Oh okay then (this afternoon AFD from LWX) LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A more active weather pattern is likely to build over region late this weekend and continue to the early parts of next week bringing multiple chances for wintry precipitation. The first chance in the long term period for wintry precipitation will occur Sunday into early Monday morning as a strong sfc low passes to the north with it`s attending front moving through our region on Sunday. As precipitation associated with the front moves into the region, cold air in place ahead of the boundary may allow for some front end wintry precipitation. Additional wintry precipitation will be possible on the back end side of the front as cold air rushes into the region. Model guidance continues to have considerable spread on precipitation types with freezing rain and snow possible. Based recent trends,the best chance for impactful wintry precipitation at this time will likely be in areas along and west of the I-81 corridor. A brief lull in precipitation is likely on Monday, but a strong coastal low passing to the south of the region will bring another round of precipitation to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Weather models have a range of solutions for the Tuesday event with some solutions having a combination heavy rain and some wintry precipitation and other solutions indicating the chance for a decent accumulating snow event. National Blend of Model plume graphics really shows the uncertainty with snow solutions ranging from 0 inches to near 15 inches of snow. At this time, we continue to have low confidence in the wintry threat early next week, but it`s a period of note worth keeping an eye on for planning purposes. &&

https://x.com/i/status/1993894442328375446

happy thanksgiving everybody hope you get to enjoy it with your families!

Time to fire up a thread! Its a lock!

Can always count on the 18z NAM/3kNAM to go extra weenie.

IIRC that wave had a deepening trend closer to verification as well as the PV lobe became better resolved, I remember having some back and forth with @RCNYILWX about it at the time. The issue this time is that the upstream ridge isn't quite as amplified as that, and there's a bit more phasing required here for a higher end outcome.

I don’t believe the euro verbatim either, but that is what it currently shows.

18z 3k NAM / HRRR on board

Clown range 18z NAM shows a trend to have better mid levels. That can really improve output regardless of modeled qpf (which is decent as is).

This is a very good and valid point.

I’d actually take that Euro lol

This.

Chase this? Jesus, sign of the times...

Sell.

Am at Thanksgiving family dinner. If All goes well one or two threads will begin 9pm tonight or7am Friday. If it’s snow it will be for odds on CP first measurable snow sleet No time to elaborate right now. Have a wonderful family dinner. Walt

I don’t disagree. I won’t believe it until it’s happening. But all we can do is look at modeling today. And some do give us snow. All you can say

Eye candy that won't materize, GFS does this in the tropics on a regular basis. Heavy rain at my place ahead of a cold front, last rain and 80s I will see for a few days. I'm holding my 7.5 prediction for Western burbs. One more shot to adjust tomorrow.

We wait until we see the whites of the weenies.

Ironically enough I was going to mention this myself as well. Definitely some similarities.

I would, of course, love for the 18z HRRR to be correct, but it is likely too strong and juiced. It has a 1004 mb low, whereas the globals have a 1008-1012 mb low. This HRRR run would probably finish with 16+" in Cedar Rapids, which I very much doubt. Half of that is more likely. The CAMs will probably come back to earth as the start approaches.

500 mb evolution with this does remind me a good deal of a slightly less impressive version of GHD II. Trough/jet streak matures in a very similar way and the thermos aren't terribly far off from that either. More likely to taper out with eastward extent though.

Meh. After the last 5 years, it would be nice to even be in the game. It’s obviously a flawed setup, but everything is now

He’s not a snow lover and his comments to me are unusual for him so I’m quite hopeful and 12/5 looks good analog wise

It’s a sheared our tilted system, but we’ve seen this before. Doesn’t scream suppression verbatim.

Widespread snow cover over the northern USA coming. We’re looking at 4-8/6-10 here Saturday and New England similar mid week. I’ll miss the New England event but won’t miss the fun here Saturday. Hopefully more in the pipeline next weekend and beyond.