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This storm will be the test for whether they can finally discontinue the NAM. The NAM was the only model which could see the warm nose at 850 mb to 750 mb. None of the other models were very good at this. The NAM has sleet mixing in around EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK. But keeps it all snow from Suffolk NW back into SW CT and interior SE NY. So out of respect for the NAM, I will go 3-5” around EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK and 5-8” Northern Nassau to Suffolk.

20 here.

17 degrees

Agree Nam is still an outlier

Depends on one's view of low impact. For me, as a tractor trailer driver pulling a bulk liquid tanker, a sleet and ice mess isn't quite low impact. Now, since you're a Penndot guy, do you see the Tier 3 restrictions holding, or do you think they might be downgraded? As of right now, legally, I should be off the roads by 2pm, loaded or empty. That to me is a blessing as it gives me leverage to park the truck without (hopefully) any repercussions from my employer as it'll technically be illegal for me to be out on the highway. I may be an experienced, professional driver, but I really don't want to play in sleet and ice in the mountainous region in which I run.

23 here

Such an odd track diving southeast, enjoy the snow guys! At 21F now, stinks with solid cold in place I won’t be able to get more out of this - but yeah, odd track and it’s expanded north. Nice storm though!

24F DP10 NE wind@10mph with P Cloudy skies. Looks like a low impact storm out this way still going with 1-3" snow/sleet, and maybe .10" of freezing rain looks to be over well before daybreak tomorrow. Then we wait for the rain and mild temps Sunday night into Monday.

6 am. 10 hours ETA. Let's do this. I'm pumped.

Definitely like we are losing the LBNW look, more expansive qpf.

18/8 bone chilling cold. Up in the air on what to expect here. Could be 4-8”, 5-9” I’ll say right around 7” is my bet.

14/5 expecting 8-10” here

3-6pm

23 degrees in Kearny with a crystal clear night sky. Manhattan skyline looks incredible all lit up.

What time we looking at first flakes around nyc?

Honestly who cares what they have though? All they do is use the HREF. As that increases today , so will they

I’d call it nervous excitement but feeling like 6+ is fairly likely

They will, nothing stopping it now.

BOX not currently biting on higher totals for our area and points east, will see if this changes during the day

You must be pumped right now

Watch that. If you can squeeze even a slightly more amped ridge in the west here, this quickly becomes really interesting with a block in the Atlantic.

You got three ticks north

Yeah first fantasy cutter in a while, hopefully our doldrums end before too long, it's been way boring

UK held or slight improvement. The trend towards shifting the lows northeast and delaying their decay/shunt south is leading to a more north-south oriented snow accumulation distribution as it pushes moisture into the damned cold air. There will likely be a snowfall max now in ENY with excellent ratios. But if we can hold off mixing, our QPF might get a boost leading to a 2nd max further south near NYC or the HV but with lower (still decent) ratios.