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I assume many people thought that this would be a halfacane at landfall, but this is more impressive than the radar presentation would lead on.

Whoa! So it did happen at the very last min. Just delayed from what the HAFS showed earlier. This is non-trivial rise in what, less than 90 min? From the winds where the pressure was taken, the actual pressure is about 970 mb That barely supports 85 kt winds in a purely tropical system, which Isaias is not and has not been for some time. Operationally, I can see it higher when it makes landfall, post-analysis though? Katrina its rapid weakening phase originally was 120 kt at landfall, but they reduced it to 110 kt. Lili was 90 kt, but reduced it to 80 kt later. Also, when a TC is rapidly weakening near landfall, NHC often keeps it higher for winds that reality b/c they do not want to have ppl et their guard down too much, They clearly did this w/ Milton. So obvious when you saw FL and SFMR winds, and the assigned intensity. I find that disingenuous. We all look at the same data and see things for what they are. Don't insult our intelligence! So models had the right idea, just timing was off, but you really can't expect them to nail down something as mesoscale as an inner core of HU as to when it starts to degrade quickly.

I mean I think it’s probably a cat 1 at this point but this is what the majority of October land falling storms look like in the US. The system that pulls them north rips them apart.

PNS might have better mixing, but almost looks like a second wind max there on both radars.

Big difference between sandy and 2020 Isaias. Sandy was deadly and caused way more damage.

Lol obviously new to Gulf halfcanes

Storm chasers are showing that this cane is falling apart.

Per Dr. Knabb: The strongest winds are currently on the NW-W side of the center due to how the strong southerly wind shear is interacting. Interesting.

83 today. Forecast is for 87 Monday. What month is it anyway?

Yeah wow looks more like a strong TS

Pensacola 92mph METAR KPNS 092353Z 04038G80KT 2 1/2SM VCTS RA BR BKN065 OVC085 19/18 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 05080/2346 LTG DSNT SE-W SLP903 P0029 60156 T01940178 10217 20194 58141

All the creeks and rivers are very low. Fontana is down about 25' plenty of places for the water to go. Nothing like helene where it poured for 2 days before it hit

Some gusty winds and heavy rain as the remmant core pushes ashore

Well there you go. Only 6 weekends. Pretty crazy.

How do you figure... it still did not make landfall yet and the eye is pretty much gone on the radar. It almost looks like it has begun extratropical transition.

Post less, sleep more

Maybe the interesting thing here is that the EWW text has no mention of wind speeds at all. It might simply be that the NWS offices are ignoring the 115mph sustained guidance and going with an EWW for all major hurricane eyewalls.

Josh just posted from Okaloosa Island, FL: https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1515937730580171&id=iCyclone

It’s a CAT 2 now

So did Sandy but that got retired lol

The pressure did just rise 13mb between the last two recon passes. Not enough time for it to make a huge difference but it’s starting to weaken pretty quickly now.

The uglies looking Cat 3 Landfall ever.