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4.97”/hr rain rate right now

04z HRRR suggesting "cells ahead of line." So 1-2 punch for some areas. Also, nice sliver of high 0-3km CAPE SNE and a second area for NNE.

Hmmm, CoastalWx and WxWiz be like "???????." 5% tor risk? How can this be? No EML!

...Northeast... Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a 90 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft moving across NY and parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the region. Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth. However, ample midlevel cooling will still support sufficient destabilization. Strong deep-layer shear and backed surface winds ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells should develop over northern NY by 18Z, and will move quickly east, producing marginal hail and sporadic damaging gusts initially. The low EL height may mitigate hail production somewhat. By late afternoon, a tornado or two will be possible as storms encounter a stronger SRH environment farther east.

Ineedsnow will be "X-static" if we get 5% tor, but WxWiz will not b/c he can't chase!

We have a lot of climo for TC tracks globally, so AI has a lot to draw from, so it should do well here. Intensity, not so much. There are still so many things we can't model well for the stronger TCs. The inner cores of the intense ones are basically mesoscale features. RI occurs often in such a short time frame and it is hard for physics-based models to handle. For decades, we have seen a steady improvement in TC tracks, but very little for intensity until the 2010s, when significant improvement occurred. So again, AI should do well for TC tracks. And TC tracks often are latitude/longitude dependent, so this variable is a solid base indicator for AI to use.

This happens *every* time new technology becomes available. It is sold as the best thing since sliced bread w/ lofty claims. I recall in the 80s it was said "in 10-15 year advancement in computer modelling will make human forecasting obsolete!' Right, how did that work out? In fairness, computer modelling advancement has removed a lot of manual work a human used to do, but this is a *good* thing actually. Why?, b/c the shear volume of wx data now is enormous and keeps increasing. We need faster computers and AI to help sort and manage it all (do the grunt heavy lifting) so the human forecast can provide the insight/wisdom/understanding -- which AI does not have -- to give concise and clear messages to all. That's one reason why IDSS is so big in the NWS. Forecasts have become very good, but the real challenge is *communicating* it all effectively in this information overload and social media world. So I would not worry about AI "taking over," so to speak, anytime soon.

I am on it. As I thought LCA is defietely worried about the base flow conditions of the Little Lehigh. We are down bigtime and near emergency status. The Little Lehigh and its watershed is the primary source of water for Lehigh County LCA-WeeklyReport-DroughtMonitoring-Dashboard-06152026.pdf

I would ignore that model and go off typical D3-5 lead in that "look" ;O I feel like it'll be a dousing for some but 1-2"++?, while most are .25-.50 BUT I have no idea what is going on, perhaps a pro can chime in.

Not that bad of a look for svwx tomorrow from the 00z HRRR. Shear is great, and as we saw today in Indiana, >500 3k srh can make triple-digit CAPE work. I think a 5% could be added for tomorrow around the i91 corridor.

Been reading Tip for 20 years. He gets the limitations of the teleconnections. Just pointing out the lag time between a strong shortwave traversing the region from upper plains to maritime.

It’ll be higher in the NW area but big winds for sure

Hopefully it rains so hard none of it soaks in

Stick? Ground is too warm.

not gonna interject but I think Tip gets it but FIGHT!!!!

I notice the CPC doesn't even use AI models in their long range forecast, and I can verify that they don't have much skill at that range. EPS is probably still the way to go Saying "AI is the way to go" just makes you look smart imo, not a huge leap from previous models

Yeah There will be some heavy showers, the smoothed out look does not reflect the ground-truth. There will be haves and have-nots obviously

PNA is finally going positive for the first time since early May, for the 2nd half of June. June as a whole will end up being the 5th consecutive month of -PNA though

I don't know about that- not 100% anyway - seems like at least some decent showers will roll through. I'd wager at least .50 for your locale, but is real

You are missing the point. Teleconnections deal w/ broad scale patterns. That only works/is useful to a point. When it comes to actual sensible wx in a specific area, that's an entirely different ballgame. How many times do we have a -NAO, and no big East Coast snowstorm occurs, as one example? I pointed out the mesoscale details being everything for all to read here, and learn something from it. You look on social media, and far too often you see people hyping certain patterns, and stating this or that will happen in X or Y region w/o stating any caveats or how it's not so simple/linear as a 1-1 correlation. People on this forum, some are still learning and other are eager to learn more, and furthering the discussion is of value net-net. And in New England, many just think about the outbreak sequence June 8-9, 1953. That is a high-end, outlier exception, and that can skew the perception of things from a local bias POV.

i think that southern one will stay south of 275, but the northern one could potentially impact the metro

Seems that the Nino is already effecting the 500 look next week to late month.

certainly hope not. those cells could split the metro but any rightward movement will bring the southern of the two cells too close for comfort.

0z NAM said, I'll just shoot way north!

I presume we will get a wind report from the 'burg