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Respectfully, sir...this is an all-time record niño with being the furthest east on record. Warm, warm, warm! Outside chance of a fluke during prime window if we are even capable of getting it cold enough and timed well--but that's about it. I mean that's just the reality of what we're heading into--no sense trying to look for what might be different or whatever...outcome is kinda historically baked in to me.
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Really wish I could get out and enjoy this perfect autumn weather.
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folks with the late october calls heading for a bustville
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All that red along the central coast will be wiped out when the map updates tomorrow - we got slammed with rain here in Santa Barbara County over the last 36 hours, with thunderstorms still popping up as the ULL spins. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall Reports/rainfallreport.pdf
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Just a general comment. Vibe in here is too negative. There is model consensus that we will have an active jet stream this winter with above normal precipitation. With a little luck, we will time some of the wet weather with cold enough air for snow. It is not a shut the blinds see you next winter pattern forecast. Relax and let's see what happens.
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The snow is coming, be careful.
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Must be nice.
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Yet another head fake…November better not yield another can kick.
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no complaints here, bring on the 60s and dry
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Who’s saying impressive Brett? We were talking about who frosted and who didn’t. It wasn’t about being impressive. We are exactly where we should be…the step down has been right on track. Do you have complaints(I know dumb question…when don’t you)? And we’ve frosted a couple weeks ago already…which wasn’t even close to November lmao.
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should get used to this look
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Latest Arctic ice falling back closer to the mean as the Arctic N of 80N anoms have warmed considerably:
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Been an incredible start to the season for the Southwest, and much needed. But very dry outside of the sharp borders of the wet zone.
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Is touching barely below 32 really that impressive? I mean we’re a week away from November.
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gotta imagine october 2026 will end up one of the warmest
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
lol at using any year from before 2016 -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Feb in the E US will likely be heavily affected by the Feb NAO. The CFSv2 is implying a strong -NAO in Feb ‘27. -These Ninos had a strong +NAO in Feb: 1992, 2016, 2024 Here’s the Feb temp anom composite: -These Ninos had a strong -NAO in Feb: 1958, 1966, 2010 Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:
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