All Activity

Nam and RRFS have a narrow swath of heavy rain later

Further to my global relative AAM post above showing it >+4 since yesterday, here are some of the graphs I saved from 2023-4, which all show a much lower amplitude: 11/6/23: +0.15 12/16/23: +0.7: 12/30/23: +1.15 1/8/24: +0.15 2/3/24: +0.5 2/21/24: +0.2 3/1/24: -0.35

Could develop some subtropical characteristics.

We deserve to be buried this winter in snow. Make it a 70" winter.

3" in the gauge since Friday. Total of 4.5" for the last week.

I've liked the signal for a while now. Just wish it tapped a little more into tropical influence. The runs today seem to be a little more potent with perhaps some subtropical/hybrid potential, but we're obviously still a ways out. AI ensembles look more bullish but you can see a little signal there across guidance. For the weenies among us, to be clear, I'm not saying we're going to get crushed by tropical lol. Just that the general pattern seems open for one of these coastals bearing hybrid characteristics. As @vortex95 notes, that's a bit unusual for this time of year along the east coast with "hybrid" season usually being in October, but given the overarching hostility in the Atlantic basin this year it's not surprising that the east coast right now could only support some kind of sprawling mess.

how is a biggie going to happen with pac air all winter

.58 rain so far.

A little over 4.5" since yesterday here. Up to 7.41" for Sep. Almost 7 inches more than Sep 2025 lol.

Even if the PDO goes neutral during the winter, relatively speaking it would be much lower than the +1.70 peak in March 2016 and +1.47 in February 1998. The main difference would be the much warmer West Pacific from Japan to south of the Aleutians. My guess is that this would promote more ridging from east of Japan to perhaps north of Hawaii. Could weaken the Aleutian low and also the low which typically resides near the Southeast US. This could also potentially shift the STJ location. Plus we have seen weaker troughs in general over the last decade and stronger ridges. Very wide spread between the global SST forecast for the February and 1998. So the PDO values might not fully capture the SST difference. Also note how much warmer the Atlantic is forecast to be.

I grew up in the 80s, wrote my first program on a Commodore 64, got a BS/MS in computer science and work for one of the big tech companies. I am frankly ashamed at the current direction of tech and tech companies. Capitalism has sucked the soul out of it. I am glad I can retire/quit in a couple years. AI is yet another tool that can be utilized for good and bad. I don't like how we are shoving it down people's throats to use (Gemini auto installed on phones, Copilot invading every MS product etc). I am also seeing the bad effects of technology in the learning environment. My kids don't have textbooks. Everything is on the computer and they are glued to it. My kids aren't on social media and we place strict rules on the phones, and they have begrudgingly accepted. It doesn't help that 80% of their peers have what seems like unlimited access to phones and social media, so my kids sorta feel left out. Back to your question, I don't think you have to be worried about an end of the world / machines takeover the planet / Matrix / Terminator scenario. You should be concerned about information flow, propaganda, influence, and control/use of data. Everyone worried about the NSA monitoring you should really be worried about big business data mining you. Things like Flock etc. Not much you can do to prevent it, unless you want to build a remote bunker in the middle of nowhere and go off the grid. Sorry for the "get off my lawn" rant (I'm only 45!). I'm glad my kids are not super interested in tech and seem to like animals/agriculture/home improvement.

The global relative AAM remains in historic territory of +4+, which should last into tomorrow. This is probably its highest since Feb of 1998. For comparison, 2023-4 was no more than in the low +1 region on any of the graphs I saved with most of them <+0.5:

Not the best weather week on the way. Rain is at least possible every day through Friday. Best chances of rain will be today into tonight and again tomorrow night into Tuesday. There is the potential a coastal storm could develop from Wednesday into Thursday which could increase the rain threat but at this point plenty of uncertainty on when and where that storm will track. Either way well below normal temperatures on the way with highs from Tuesday through Thursday according to the ChescoWx model not escaping the 50's with lows in the 40's.

Not the best weather week on the way. Rain is at least possible every day through Friday. Best chances of rain will be today into tonight and again tomorrow night into Tuesday. There is the potential a coastal storm could develop from Wednesday into Thursday which could increase the rain threat but at this point plenty of uncertainty on when and where that storm will track. Either way well below normal temperatures on the way with highs from Tuesday through Thursday according to the ChescoWx model not escaping the 50's with lows in the 40's.

There is very little warming of the days during the summer it's mostly a night time thing. I ran my heat after the middle of August this summer YUCK! I can't stand strong El ninos. Summers of 1991 and 2002 were MUCH better! 1983 will be great match for next summer too- endless summer heat April through September! We had 9 90 plus days in September alone! I'm going to love that big heat next summer and no rain, 40 90 degree days and 4 100 degree days in NYC and less than 6 inches of rain for the entire summer and a colder and snowier winter to follow than this one too. La ninas after El nino are the best for all seasons!

you didn't ask for this opinion but personally believe every teleconnector there is should be analyzed and reanalyzed for relative correlation. RNAO, RAO, RPNA, RWPO, REPO ... RPDO etc The implications of a -RPDO with a +RONI is then headachy different than the non-relativistic tandem -

1983 endless summer heat continues! Looks like big heat in 1953 also continued! That's why living at the coast is so awful. Besides Tuesday every other day is forecast to be partly sunny here. Yuck enjoy getting wet, not going to get that here. This is exactly why I left the coast. It has the worst weather in the entire country. My forecast for Wednesday on is partly sunny. Even Monday is forecast to be partly sunny here. But it's only for bookkeeping purposes as early September is hotter than early June. Big endless summer with impressive 90 plus at all stations around this time in 1983 thats going to be US next year! This is exactly why I left the coast. There's been too much rain I still have standing water in parts of my lawn and it's unmowable. It's going to be fine if we dont get any rain for a month. I have my own well so I'd have more to worry about than you would. If you have to water a lot it means you're growing stuff you shouldn't be growing here. I haven't watered anything in OVER 2 YEARS and I have 1.5 acres of land. I'm going to enjoy listening to people whine when we get a real summer next year and it does not rain at all next summer. That's what will happen and it will be absolutely amazing!!

If PDO stays negative there are going to be a lot of papers about how PDO and ENSO modulate each other in a warming climate. But if we look at the WCS chart, the PDO was much more negative at this time than it is now. Last year it was around -1.8 and today about -0.7 give or take.

RONI

Scenes from the New York Botanical Garden yesterday before a prolonged siege of clouds and periods of rain set in.

Heat is on here but its a rental so not affcting my account. We have it at 70, not going to get greedy. However, when we move into our house in Ashburnham. MA next month, heat maybe at 66 when its on my dime. Ashburnham/Fitchburg seems very favorable for snow, big bonus!

51. Coldest so far. Thankfully no 40s. Plenty of that in December and January.