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Which is obviously wrong. It continues to appear that there will be a smaller round for late morning and midday, and then the potential major round for early evening. We could get hit hard around 5 to 7pm, but we'll have to see if there's enough sunshine during the afternoon break to really fire up the atmosphere and increase the risk of the early evening storms being severe.

Another 4-5" rain event just north of Des Moines today. That area has been hammered this summer. Somewhere in that area has probably had 20+ inches of rain in the past two months.

Solid hit today. 1.56". Could have had more except for some untimely swerves. 3.77" MTD.

Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 85.9W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern semicircle. There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to become the dominant steering influence which should induce a west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction, on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will increase during the next couple of days. This should limit intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch

He could be deep in the Allagash forests and still get the Trump signal here

I have no clue why they show these maps on TV. TV mets should be a little more responsible than Twitter "mets" and hypesters. Yet here we are.

I saw the conversation and knew wolfie wouldn’t be able to resist. Even in his summer hibernation

Looks very familiar. Just like the forecast and/or the result for every event the past 4 years

What's a good portable generator? Can it power multiple devices throughout house at once (fridge, lighting, HVAC, water heater)? If portable and only set up when needed, how can it be set up outdoors to power things inside? Asking not to be confrontational, I'm genuinely curious what the alternatives are. We've lost power 5x this year, ranging from 3-16 hour times. Most times not even weather related. My fear is having to struggle in pitch dark at 2am setting up a portable generator, and not able to ensure kids can sleep and we have refrigeration / hot water.

Same here in Sumner county seems like it reliably falls apart before reaching us. Didn't get a drop yesterday but goodlettsville got hammered.

Picked up another 0.62” to bring the daily total to 2.33”. This now brings the MTD to 8.90”. Looks like maybe another round later tonight too?

did you guys see this? legitimately insane: This is like Charlotte or Atlanta having a low of 80F in January lol. Seems like it's indirectly tied to the developing Niño - apparently related to some insane snowfall in the Andes (because of the juiced-up Pacific) leading to downsloping winds into Argentina, which caused this.

I've had 5 power outages last month, including one this evening. I truly hope there's not another one tomorrow.

I’m not certain that we will.

SPC issued MDTs on back to back days with Ivan. The first day over the southeast somewhat busted, as too much cloud cover limited instability. On the second day, we did eventually get a MDT into parts of northern VA, but the threat was not obvious until it evolved in real time. This was the initial outlook of the day. The area with a 5% got a SLGT. (The probabilities ramped up starting with the 1630Z outlook.)

yeah it's not a widespread event-it's hit or miss for most of us

Bertha has been beautiful, and fun. I was awakened at 3:11 AM on the 17th to a lightning show and rumbling boom and rumble thunder. It was intense and still an hour before a drop of rain fell on my house. All day Friday we had periods of rain and breeze from the mid-level swirl, lots of lightning. I wonder if the Sahara Dust that had been in our sky helped make circuits for Earth's static charge releases! One person told me they never experienced lightning like that here in Florida. And we are sometimes considered the "Lightning Capital" of the world. Yesterday the breeze got stronger, and a few TD bands came through. Today was about the air moving in the big swirl, respectable winds that were steady and the sky just kept moving by. It felt so good to be out in it. Three and half inches of rain since the initial 3 AM storm party on Friday. It's not a drought breaker by itself, but sure helps. Tonight the trees look full and happy for the first time since 2024 (Debbie, Helene, and Milton), and I see them twisting and dancing to the wind which I imagine helps them suck up rain from the ground and push into their limbs and leaves. We need these tropical systems every year to maintain ground water in Florida. Last year we had no tropical systems in the Gulf. Remember: Bertha is drifting away from us in the Tampa Bay area, but what a welcome and desperately needed system to come by and visit. Whew. Its possible next week everything will be wilting again crying for rain. Storm damage in my yard? Yes, a dead rotten Live Oak branch fell on my Key West Lime tree breaking it off at the base. The branch I had not noticed hanging in the tree was a thudnest*. I heard it thud when it hit the ground in the rain yesterday. While it was still raining several species of birds appeared to have a feast on what I suspect were ants who had a nest in the branch. It was not the wind that brought the branch down, it was the weight of the rain and the thudnest was like a sponge soaking it up. *Thudnest – A heavy dead limb filled with insect nests.

The top laugh on their epstein islands as the 99% battle each other over trans people, gulf of mexico, and reflecting pools…

Incredible lightning and very loud thunder here tonight. Had at least a dozen close strikes even before the rains hit. Picked up .53".

I am counting down the days till November 2028..

Batten down the hatches in TRI tomorrow night and Weds AM along with SE KY, SW VA, and the Plateau. MRX has been on top of it today. Severe threat is real. Slight risk of tornadoes with possible strong, straight line winds. 70mph gusts are being mentioned. I do not want to lose power in this heat. Right now it is 80 degrees at TRI at 10:00PM. Heavy rain is also possible. Could extend into the Central Valley.

Sign me up for the 00Z HRRR.

Man you can script a precip minimum better than that.

it’ll likely get switched back at some point after the balance of power flips aisles. Unless there is a coup de etat and the last of the constitution is at last cindered … otherwise most historically reliable social dynamic metrics are heavily leaning toward a pendulum swing. It’s not a big intuitive leap that when that happens, there will be sweeping referendums on a lot of the decisions that have been made in recency.

Widespread 80s on the coldest 7/20 of our lives