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That line is looking pretty good with some very noteworthy rotation. Erode the MLCIN out ahead of it and boost up those values and this may be an interesting afternoon in NNE. Looks good for some clearing out ahead of the line too

it's easy to distract from the correct predictions by highlighting the incorrect ones

risk definitely verified around here

Ski resort tycoon game based on the NELSAP site https://icecoastrevival.com/

WB 6Z EURO. Hopefully southern and eastern zones will get some much needed rain tomorrow.

That blob over West Virginia looks promising. But there seems to be some forcefield east of the Potomac that destroys precip as it moves across the river.

If someone would’ve told me a few years back that most of the country would be in a drought while California was fully moisturized I wouldn't have believed them.

Considering a North Georgia chase late this afternoon. Target is the LLJ ahead of Aurthur remnants. Chase decision is pending proper destabilization. Satellite and radar trends match CAM forecasts at this point. Scattered t-storms are developing in Geogia in the morning sunshine. LLJ remains way back in southern MS/AL so I ignore morning to midday t-storms. New line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the AL/GA line toward 22Z. LLJ should be roaring into that line. Current forecast calls for modest instability, more of a LLJ forced line, and I would not chase it. Now, if the North Georgia atmosphere can recharge in the wake of midday t-storms, we're in business! The said line would have greater instability and perhaps break up a bit. Even then, picking a cell is challenging. These tropical cells move quickly, and cycle quickly too. No obvious boundary to target either. Throw in that lovely (sarcastic) Georgia terrain, and ope! Then if the ATL Metro, hell no! Atlanta WFO AFD is similar thinking. They are probably right that the leading storms have the best chance of any severe. My interest is rotation though - and it's very conditional based on late afternoon instability. Probability of chase is only about 1/3 but it's not far (hard stop before ATL). Otherwise, World Cup matches start at Noon! 10:30 am Eastern, followed by Peachtree AFD highlights As the remnant system moves towards the CWA, models seem to finally be converging on a solution for exactly how the system moves across the area, for better or worse. CAMs have keyed in on the remnant circulation continuing to move to the NE across MS and AL, eventually coming into northern GA by the evening hours. During the afternoon, some day time heating even with cloud cover allows for multiple thunderstorms to form over all of north and central Georgia - these will likely contain most of the severe threat. A line of storms is expected to form across portions of Alabama later in the evening that extends into central Georgia during the late evening to early overnight hours. Simultaneously, the core of the remnant low moves into north Georgia, bringing some heavy rainfall and potential for strong winds that are mixed down from a developing 850 mb jet.

Today will be our warmest day for at least the next week. Highs today will be at least 5 degrees above normal in the mid to upper 80's. Some showers are around this morning into early this afternoon. There is a chance of a heavier storm with the cold frontal passage this afternoon, but unfortunately no widespread rain appears likely. We turn back to normal to below temperatures through the middle of next week with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's and lows in the mid to upper 50's. Shower chances increase by Sunday night into Monday morning.

Today will be our warmest day for at least the next week. Highs today will be at least 5 degrees above normal in the mid to upper 80's. Some showers are around this morning into early this afternoon. There is a chance of a heavier storm with the cold frontal passage this afternoon, but unfortunately no widespread rain appears likely. We turn back to normal to below temperatures through the middle of next week with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's and lows in the mid to upper 50's. Shower chances increase by Sunday night into Monday morning.

Ha! I beat you by 0.01! 0.08 here. We're really racking it up.

Congrats on the Wind Advisory and Torando Watch in Bolton Landing.

Raleigh area in Exceptional. We might be there by next month

Not event wet under the trees in Gaithersburg.

June 13, 2013 comes to mind. Granted that was a Day 2 MOD, but the morning convection blew through and dropped a surface boundary that fire up the Leesburg to Rockville to College Park tornado.

Weenie comment - but I know we've had some events where early showers/precip gave us some REALLY soupy air and if clearing happens it could intensify fuel for later.

AI will not remove the forecasters. I can't even get a Comcast AI bot to schedule a service appointment, there's no way an AI person will replace a forecaster at a WFO when I need help.

We really need Monday to deliver or it's going to get bone dry again. The 2" in 3 hours was good on Sunday but most of that ran off as opposed to saturating the soil. Everything is already drying out again. 06z Euro and euro AI are a significant cutback for Monday with most of the heavy stuff going north of the CWA. Seems like we are stuck in a pattern where everything either slides N or S of us.

Extreme drought, woohoo. I wish there was some way to make electricity via dry soil. I'd be printing money.

WAGONS NORTH

We'll see what can happen south of Rt. 2 and especially getting towards the Pike and farther south...mid-level dry air going to be a big concern and tough to overcome. With this said, that would keep anything that develops more isolated so if something pops and can get a robust enough updraft, it will have an environment all to its self. Will be tough this...instability won't be sufficient I don't think

Amazing how most of the showers fall apart as they are moving northeast towards the metro from southeast PA - lets see if that moderate to heavy batch near York PA survive

0.03” at home. #droughtbusted

Break clouds damn you: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Nammy doesn't look too bad.