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Happy December, everyone! Cold season has begun. There will be heartbreak. There will be despair. But therein lies satisfaction and joy in the quiet crystal dust that falls from the sky. Our first event starts tomorrow (December 2), and while it looks to be a NW special, sit back, relax, and enjoy the show! After all, it's only early December; the precipitation—rain or snow—is much needed to dig out of this drought. Plus, I’m sure we’ll have plenty of chances afterward, if the model guidance for December keeps trending the way it has. The pattern looks active, the indices are aligning, and winter seems eager to take its first real swing. Whether it’s a miss or a direct hit, the ride is just beginning. If I were you, I'd bundle up, check back often, and let’s see what the next wave of guidance brings. Winter has arrived, and it's ready to rumble. Cheers to a cold and snowy start to winter! May the odds be ever in our favor.

I’m right here in Pearl River, I’m definitely taking the ride up to Harriman or if I have to even go a little further to Monroe, those two areas seem to be the sweet spot of 5 to 8 inches, I will be enjoying the storm on Tuesday, don’t have to drive that far up the palisades to get into the good stuff

Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/11/final-call-for-tuesday-winter-storm.html FINAL CALL: FIRST CALL:

Less. WX/PT

Final Call for Tuesday Winter Storm Expect Early School Dismissals & Messy PM Commute The forecast rationale as laid out in the First Call on Friday remains largely unchanged, although the details have become somewhat clearer, as is usually the case. Synoptic Overview Eastern Mass Weather forecast a busy month of December in what promised to be an active start to the 2025-2026 winter season across the southern New England forecast area, and it now appears that this active pattern is underway. However, the first storm system that is passing by tonight is obviously falling as rain, as expected. This is due to the fact that there remains a strongly positive NAO in place, which is conspiring with energy over the western CONUS (Tuesday's winter storm) to raise eastern heights on the east coast enough to allow this final rain event to track across northern New England tonight. This system will head through the Canadien maritimes and into the North Atlantic, where it will help to elevate heights in the NAO domain as the system number two begins to eject out int the Tennessee valley by Tuesday morning. Heights over the east will subtly descend as the energy shifts east, and the riding builds in the vicinity of Greenland. This will displace the PV slightly further to the south and suppress the storm track just enough to provide the forecast areas with it's first winter storm of the season for Tuesday afternoon into the predawn hours of Wednesday morning, before this system also pulls away into the Maritimes. Anticipated Storm Evolution Although some flurries are possible across western New England, we should escape the morning commute on Tuesday largely unscathed and without delay. It is important not to be mislead, as the plot will thicken and the visibility will lower, at least for those locales receiving snowfall, by midday, as the precipitation will grow steadier and somewhat heavier. However, any snowfall over the southeastern third of the region will be brief, as southeast winds off the ocean out ahead of the approaching low will cause precipitation to rapidly mix with and change to rain given the lack of an antecedent high pressure in place to the north to replenish the cold air supply. This will also result in the development of a coastal front Tuesday afternoon over Eastern Mass and coastal New Hampshire. The marine layer will encroach on ENE winds to the seaward side of the front, which will hinder accumulations and even trigger a change to rain along the immediate shore. However, the poleward side may see some local higher amounts given mesoscale banding as a result of low level convergence and mid level deformation, from the southern Worcester hills up through the Nashoba Valley, and into interior southeastern New Hampshire. That being said, enhancement is a relative term, and while travel will be disrupted, these will not be crippling rates given the less than ideal banding signal in conjunction with the rapid pace of movement. Then as the low passes by later in the evening, the winds will veer more northerly again, and the coastal front will collapse to the shore, at which point any lingering precipitation will end as a period of snowfall during the predawn hours of Wednesday AM. There are likely to be some delays on Wednesdays with slippery spots likely, but cancellations should be sparse, as road crews will have had ample time to work their magic before sunrise. That said, allow for a slower than usual commute Wednesday morning. FINAL CALL: FIRST CALL:

Modeling is now good enough we do not usually get the surprises we got in the 1960s & 70s (very few in the 70s). WX/PT

BWI: 21.4" DCA: 16.7" IAD: 24.3" RIC: 9.7” ----- SBY: 8.3"

And a trackable event.

Update

yeah I agree, probably not far from the truth. I'd feel better with a closed ml low traveling over the south coast, but this whole thing looks like a mess - which lends me to believe ml's will act accodingly, including precip shield- with more warming than some of these isothermal to 128 depictions we saw.

A large area of light snow across the north... with a narrow zone of heavy snow near the gradient. That feels like the right outcome. It's crazy that gradient remains in question and will have such a big effect on sensible impacts.

Those snow totals through Saturday morning certainly appeared to fall off south of Stowe. Checking Bolton’s snow report, they weren’t reporting any new snow, so I wasn’t planning on making any turns, but my younger son and his friend were looking to get out for some runs with me and my wife, so we ended up heading out for a morning session. It turns out that the resort did pick up at least a couple of inches of snow based on what we saw, but the accumulations varied a lot with the wind and perhaps their standard measurement spots didn’t hold onto any of the snow to a degree that they felt confident enough to report it. The resort is working on beefing up the manmade base on their main Bear Run beginner route on the lower mountain, so there was no beginner terrain in play yesterday, and I think that helped to keep the number of visitors lower than they might have been. Conditions on their main Sherman’s Pass/Beech Seal route were decent, with some manmade snow of course, but some natural mixed in and a nice amount of loose snow that gave you something to carve on. The relatively low skier traffic kept the morning groomed surfaces lasting longer than they typically might, but by late morning the skier traffic was starting to pick up, and you could tell that the surfaces were getting a little firmer. Bolton Valley has been putting up some impromptu mini terrain parks near the base these past couple of weekends with just a feature or two, and it seems like folks are having a lot of fun with that. They’re short enough that you can literally hike back up in 20 seconds and hit the features again. My son had fun with the one they have set up near the Mighty Mite and made a couple runs down the rails on our way out.

Some of the locals seem to be all in on the dynamics being close enough to the coast to ignore the ocean temps?

DCA: -4.4 NYC: -3.1 BOS: -3.3 ORD: -4.7 ATL: -2.5 IAH: -0.7 DEN: -0.9 PHX: +0.8 SEA: +2.3 DCA: 15.6 NYC: 28.6 BOS: 41.1 ORD: 30.3 DTW: 45.5 BUF: 101.5 DEN: 66.2 SEA: 4.7 BTV: 93.3

BWI: 19.8 DCA: 12.9 IAD: 18.6 RIC: 9.0 ——————— SBY: 8.9

Refs totally fucking the commanders on the last drive

Oh' I know...

CMC decent solution.

Not that this means much coming from this layman, but...you are going to become a main anchor here very soon

ggem is warm, too. 0c h85 is north of here

Gfs was way north and now it’s the southernmost solution switching places with euro. Seem to remember them flipping a lot like that last year

Yea, low level cold air can take forever to scour out. The issue is upstairs. That hp is just racing east, so there’s not gonna be much resistance to the waa. I think an inch stat starter would be a win in this setup.

Heavy Freezing Rain at 30 deg isn't actually a huge problem on the surface as most make it out to be. Too much latent heat release happening. Trees / Power-lines are a concern, but you really need to be 28 or below for stuff to stick in moderate to heavy rain. The worst case is <28 and light rain, that's when you're in trouble. I think we're seeing a trend north and west with the WAA. If the surface holds at 30, might be few isolated areas that are a mess, if it gets to 32, we'll be fine disappointed.

Well the latest GFS run opted for shredding the southern shortwave entirely by moving it out as the northern bowling ball crushed it. So making this an addendum to the og post but it appears that instead we need to have constructive interactions between the northern and southern energy to get a storm. So really I think watching for a stronger piece of energy out of the south which would help pull the northern stream energy souther is needed. Additionally, a stronger but further south piece of the NS diving in would be beneficial. Either way I just don't see a great likely way all of this breaks our way as we have to contend with a southern energy split, northern stream interaction, and trying to keep the 50/50 in a better position.

Per OHX,we are right now today+3.2 AN,Nov isnt a dry month either here and we are below avg 1.76" https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BRO&product=CF6&issuedby=BNA