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So you are disregarding last night's Eps that pulls the west coast trough wnw off the coast toward the GOA as well as the last 4 weeklies runs (at least) that has the Aleutian low and trough developing in the SE?

Min 29.0° Atmospherically fake. Vegetatively real.

Second sub-freezing morning in a row. Low of 30 with heavy frost.

Need to get rid of that +WPO. Always bad news for Ninos, let alone any ENSO.

Has to be mainly attributed to daily mins...just guessing....although certainly the past couple have been cold.

Seems as though the mid latitudes are just mired in this cool ENSO residue regardless of how pervasive El Nino grows in the tropics...and any assertion of El Nino in the mid latitudes just conspires with antecedent La Nina flavor to foster this even warmer, hybrid regime of sorts with the bifurcated Aleutian low...each node in an awful spot INVO the Bering Sea and SW CONUS.

It's not a bad idea ... about the time of year when the west Pac TC teleconnector becomes more significant. I'm noticing that we are being sort of "cheated" from realizing a stunningly warm October along 80W over the continent, due to "pinch low" phenomenon and/or sneaky llv cool inserts, despite the fact that a truer polar branch of the westerlies (jet) has been situating N-W. Technically a -PNAP baseline. It just one with limited warm benefits, because anticorrelary/anomalies are taking place within the more typical ridge region of the -PNAP... Thus masking the former warmer signals to some degree. The present extended out look has positive anomalies in the 500 mb non-hydrostatic heights ~ 70 % of the time over the eastern mid latitude continent. This has been going on for awhile actually. In fact, we are like that now... yet have pervasive frost/freeze headlines throughout the OV and it's 25 to 30 F this morning throughout NE. We've seen temperatures 80/60 with these heights in November before! it's really interesting, this masking aspect. yet, despite ... the longer term temperature anomaly distribution still probably end up decimals warmer than normal. That's been a leitmotif going back ... years actually. We end up above normal against the 30 year base while being below normal relative to daily metrics.

Fun to watch the frost melt away as the sun reaches more of the backyard

Horrific

Good morning Don. Ironically the name of the rose, at least the J&P version, is Chicago Peace. When I was young it was considered one of the most beautiful ever developed. As always ….

Looks like a fairly average temperature pattern over the next 5-10 days. As the historic El Niño continues to intensify, the ridge axis is forecast to shift closer to our area. So the core of the warmth which has been to our west in early fall is forecast to shift east from late October into early November.

Low of 36.3 with some light frost.

Good morning kdxken. The accu weather forecast for Centrak Park for those days, other than for temperature, is not that far off …. Except …. For the 29th and 39th. The prediction is for 2.49 inches of rain between those two days. Possibly a nor’easter? I’m sure it will change I just found it interesting, even 10 days out. Stay well, as always …..

No rain till mid Nov?

32.8 for the low and very frosty

Low of 36

I still think latter January into February would turn out better given less MC influence, but maybe a warmer earlier portion of the season biases the seasonal mean warmer. I don't know of anyone offering resistance to the notion of a very mild December and January in the mean, so any uncertainty is surrounding February.

Low of 32 and quite frosty

Falls Lake is becoming an issue again for sure:

Same general theme with more amplitude and warmth potential.

Will it even snow this year?

Well it looks to be dry as a bone this week. So much for any rain from that coastal.

Similar to yesterday 27.7.