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Good Question. I made an example here of the general concept. In the images below I've "Unskew'd" the Skew-T so that temperature is now vertical line on the X axis. Y axis is height obviously. The only question to ask is which area / shape is bigger? The Red (Above Freezing) or the Blue (Below Freezing). In this profile the blue is bigger, and therefore Sleet would likely be the most dominant precipitation type. So what about this one? Red is bigger, therefore Freezing Rain would be most likely. In the real world of course there is more to consider like dynamic lift in banding, precipitation rate, etc. but it's useful.

Thank you, and it's the same argument I just had with my daughter who is my GM and that is exactly what she told her district and regional managers. I am forwarding this to her, too.

DT is bitter. He is a jerk and a social misfit. Just about every time the forecast goes against what he's forecasting or his area is not gonna be in the bull's-eye he somehow is sick or his server is down or he's just so damn tired. How convenient. It's like clockwork with this guy. So quick to put everybody else's forecast down when his own forecast usually sucks. And don't tell me he's a good forecaster because I've been watching him for many years because it's a train wreck with him.

lol. A 67 page thread for this type of forecast.. One thing this storm has done is created a very hostile environment on Facebook for any meteorologist. The comments under this are just sad honestly.

I just completed my daily weather obs across the county. VERY COLD all over! Best of luck with this storm!!!! You guys are in for a treat! Good Times!

Lol

Topped out at 30F today at Deep Creek, dropped like a stone and now I'm down to 6F. I have no idea how high the wind gusts are but they have to be 40mph here on top of the mountain. It's been all day. I have a few flakes blowing around but otherwise partly cloudy.

2010 was 3-6 the day of and the NAM kept going up if I recall. That was Jeff V infamous call of not upping his totals. There was way more upside with that storm. This one doesn't have high upside and it has been modeled well overall.

Looking to our SW, places that were supposed to be ice or sleet are snow. Soundings reveal the forecasted warm layer failing to materialize. Maybe it gives us some hope?

Seriously? You have to ask?

Last week

Who is this “we”?

Just days ago this storm seemed poised to bury the mid-Atlantic while giving us a few inches consolation prize at best. We have come so far since then, now on track for a full fledged MECS and the biggest storm in years for many. I am beyond excited, planning for baked cookies, hot chocolate, and a pizza run. Whether it's 12" or 19" I'll enjoy it all the same.

A lot of people will not trust metrologist after this passes. .

Lost 2 degrees in last 15 minutes. 23.7

Dave doesn't think there's much sleet in Lancaster

I think HRRR is a little bit faster and a little bit wetter. (2/10)

You really know how to silence a bunch of weenies..

33/7 here in Massanutten....temps dropped off a cliff here starting at 3:30...high for 48 earlier.

And we live in the damn Valley... Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

He remembers Jan 2022 for sure. I also know he remembers a couple of others. He woke up the morning of 3/4/19 looked out and said holy crap.

You must be new here

NAM is good at sniffing out those warm layers but it’s hard to take its thermals serious when it’s jumping so much. 6z north, 12z south, 18z north. Any bets on 0z?

Skeptical. 10”-14” in most of W MA

Who is doing that