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80% chance for 1” in MBY!?

I'm in briefly. I checked. Here are the December composites (1980-2024) for EPO+/PNA+/AO-/NAO- 500 mb Height Anomalies: Temperature Anomalies: Precipitation Rate: n=121 dates I suspect that there's a lot of variability, though.

Dick Tolleris in agreement on a 7 yr, $500 deal with EMA Wx. $250 signing bonus and if gets all forecasts right.. $300 bonus.

Fwiw both aifs ensembles and EPS have been cleaning up with verification scores at 500mb over CONUS. Other models aren’t even coming close.

Outbursts are so common on a snow storm thread it's hard to see the sarcasm through the snow...

What are you looking for? Foot plus? Wait a week when we have pure Arctic Air antecedent days . There's your high end. This is a 6 to 8 for the best

If we ever get a real snowstorm, AI ensembles going to look like 12k NAM and RGEM had a baby

5.5" Imby, Lombard Letting up a bit but still coming down pretty hard. We were at 1"/hour for a bit for sure

The trend, you and I need to be wary of, is if we see East and weaker model depictions moving forward. That’s a possibility that is definitely still in play.

I'm just mocking Kevin's inane outbursrs.

NYC Metro-MUCH Colder weather is just ahead in next 2-3 weeks expecting some snow on the ground by Dec 15th maybe as early as Dec 5th. WX/PT

That arc doesn’t like Virginia

Not going great, but a little early to give up on it. I would at least wait until Monday morning. Unless you are referring to something else...

6” mean on the EPS for MBY!?!

Enjoying this weenie band

I like how you changed the arc of your line just in time to keep it just north of stephens city. Lol

Just crossed 5”. Still stacking, so 8” should be within reach. Pure bliss outside.

The whole thing has gone to crap.

Yeah we just drove to Evanston. I think 8-10 is a good bet with the long duration of the event. We’ll be having dinner in town Monday night for my birthday with maybe 1-3 inches expected from the next system.

Totally agree with the threats. That’s all we can ask for, and last year while it sticks in our memory has no real bearing on what’ll happen this season. I’m cautious on snow amounts to begin with in my first calls but I still think it’s a light to moderate event for most of CT. Either way, we quickly turn the page to the Arctic hounds Friday and a possible system next weekend.

7 inches on the nose here as of about 1:45. Flake size has increased with these little enhanced blobs moving overhead from time to time.

You are gonna have to be N of 287 to even sniff accumulating snow w/this one

i would guess at this time it's yonkers and north for accumulating snow, possibly even northern Bronx may get on some action if it falls during the night as the storm intensifies and pulls out

Tuesday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 32. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

House is decorated inside and out. Snowboard in the yard. Just need snow.