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Low of 35 here I'll post some frost photos. Edit can't post them darned file size limit so here is another fall foliage photo instead. If they got down to 30 they beat Mount Pocono by 1 degree. All Cat 1 landfalls should be retired. Worst since Sandy both for winds and damage. Rooftop only frost but 35 for the low 37 is the lowest temperature you can have frost. Interesting temperature difference 35 here with light rooftop frost 31 at Mount Pocono first freeze and 37 at Scranton. It was also unexpected. It should be mandatory for all Cat 1 landfalls to be retired. Worst since Sandy. This is why you need to remove weak trees near the house. Yikes that's NASTY! And the air conditioning the following day lol. 35 here and light frost but only on my roof. I had both air conditioning and heat on in August. Or even both at the same time lol. Meh I'll turn it on in August if it's cold. 35 here and frost but only on my roof. Weak trees close to the house need to be removed I had to do that after a microburst in 2018. Same temperature as Mount Pocono 31 first freeze. Wow only 68 here but tomorrow should be warmer in the 70s with less wind. Maybe you will hit 80.

Tornado threat for AL/GA will be significant as well. Atlanta will be under the gun from both strong easterly winds and the tornado threat on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk on Saturday for the area currently under a slight from the SPC if things hold serve.

0z hrrr and nam absolutely shred this just before landfall. Halficane

This is going to be a highly satisfying storm. It is still intensifying and might touch Cat 3. ANTECEDENT FRESHWATER: Soils are hypersaturated. They might get to see 15 additional inches of rain Winds felling trees: Ground is saturated. It won't take much wind to topple every last tree in that saturated soil. Look out houses, buildings, cars and people trying to jebwalk in this thing. Gulf of Mexico Bathymetry: Shape of the bottom will enable the storm to push a lot of ocean up onto the low lying coast resulting in incredible storm surge! People will get to watch that water go up, even gushing UP through drains! There is a possibility of more rain than expected with this. The moisture will have nowhere to go thanks to a blocking high over the Mid Atlantic. South Georgia, West Florida SE Alabama are all under the gun with this system! APPLICATION: Very exciting storm, satisfying rain amounts, strong winds and lots of falling trees along with storm surge flooding and freshwater flooding exacerbated, thanks to saturated grounds because of antecedent heavy rains before this storm. I fervently wish I was down there in the worst hit regions, I'd be blasting Daddy Yankee tracks and dancing like Smeagle in Lord of the Rings!

I wouldn't even call it the remnants... it is a low pressure pulling up gulf moisture.

Bet this is close to major already

Josh is in Pensacola as he chose Isaias over Simon but wishes there were two of him so they could chase both lol: https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2108365382130045125

Passing showers today.

Still watching at least hoping to water the yard lol .

Looking at the presentation on the WV right now and this seems very plausible. .

Going to pass over that warm eddy to with much improved structure now. Shear shouldn't be too bad overnight. I could see a cat 3 peak potentially. By afternoon tomorrow it will start feeling effects of much higher shear and eventually drier air towards coast.

Really starting to look quite nice on IR

Yea, I brought up Lily and Opal yesterday...Ivan was another.

This tells us all we need to know. 3 westward moving typhoons and no recurve . Mild as far as eye can see with no troughing . https://x.com/ryanweather/status/2108372136901390378?s=46

We'll see...should interesting to watch play out.

Yep, it's your Opal 1995, Dennis 2005, Lili 2002 type. Although those peaked higher than this one will so this will likely be even weaker coming in. The more recent storms like Laura and Michael are the exception in the N Gulf.

The western Pacific was absolutely warming faster than the eastern Pacific over the past decade. Good discussion....sure beats the hell out of "warm and rainy".

It's a quick hitter and dead.

I understand what you are saying, but I feel as though you are viewing it backwards....more heat in the western pacific absolutely triggers a stronger El Niño response from the tropical atmosphere because the earth is trying to redistribute said heat...why do yo think the strongest of El Niño events usually occur on the heels of solar max? Now, if there remains enough residual heat in the western Pacific, then it can create a competing influence that acts to mitigate the warm ENSO expression throughout the extra tropical hemisphere, as we saw in 2023...but let me ask you this...why do you think we have seen two warm ENSO events this strong just three years apart, which is unprecedented in recorded history....I know where my money is.

Not seeing a whole lot of chatter online regarding the inland wind threat. A broadening cyclone, fast motion and a tight gradient with the HP to the NE screams widespread 50-70 mph gusts that go on a lot longer than your typical system. Hope folks are prepared.

My cousin lives on Pine Island, Florida. She was actually glad there was a strong El-Nino. She knows the weather like me. She is tired of the hurricanes.

Sometimes we get spoiled by the symmetry of perfect monster canes. I’m one who marvels at their beauty! I can tell you that as someone who sits in the crosshairs of this system, regardless of dry air & especially shear…I’m still quite fidgety tonight! .

Next recon will be telling.