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GFS is a money run

Doesn’t look like a cave. Looks remarkably consistent to its last few runs?

100%

Shrooms, weed and ecstasy?

Still the matter of higher latitude.

We’re in the 2 feet bentcarrot.com area.

1/23 00z GFS

Agreed. In my oversimplified view I think of getting a major snowstorm at the coast here as having similar odds as winning $50 on a $1 scratch off lottery ticket, which is something like 1 in 360. That would work out to one big storm every four winters if distributed perfectly. Maybe at the moment the odds are now 1 in 500, or one in every 5-6 winters, again *if distributed perfectly.* Either way, you need a heck of a lot of luck to have a winner. And given the low odds to begin with, the change in the total number of big storms that one sees in a lifetime might be so minor as to be unnoticeable. Then when you consider the temperatures in the 1980s and the number of big snows and compare to the temperatures and big snows in the 2010s, it becomes apparent that its not just about cold. Someone on this board posts a nice image of a triangle with the three ingredients for snow: cold, moisture, and luck. That's very true.

Good point on the QPF trend. Lost 0.5in in Raleigh over the last 9 runs.

still negligable changes at 60.

Hour 63 we are getting moderate snow across the southern half of PA.

Looks slightly colder at 850 with first wave to me

0z GFS is great if you prefer more snow/sleet and less ice in TN.

Honestly you could see that from JFK / along the coast compared to somewhere in upper Manhattan / the Bronx.

Steady as she goes.

Pretty much the case based on the 18z Euro and adjacent models.

GFS is a few ticks warmer at surface too

GFS has been the most consistent by far. So it is either right or way wrong. Brad P even mentioned his concerns with EURO output.

here is the sounding for the NAM when the sleet makes it closest to SAGC. Can you imagine getting sleet at while it is 17° at the surface?! would be wild

It’s clearly using some sort of ratio formula in addition to the QPF since that’s way more than 10 to 1 model consensus would imply.

1/23 GFS AI AIGFS total QPF storm

GFS still trying to start with snow for northern part of NC

Yes. This is what I tried to convey in my First map...I didn't explicitly display 20", but denoted that amounts in excess of 18" are possible in select areas.