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Lightly snowing in leominster.. tiny flakes

Perhaps .. but that looks like it could have easily set up W-N-S-E just given the Jackson Pollock look to that overall QPF artistry.

You should send him a strongly worded pm to let him know your thoughts

Also two days in a row waking up to @CAPE calling people’s analysis lazy lol.

Makes sense at this point, models showing every possible outcome next week

Um

So excited about my 1-2".

overnight low was 5.

There are varying drought conditions in about 45% of the area of the lower 48 states.

In my initial reply to Will's total snowfall post I said it was realistically more like 2-4" across the area for that wndow.

So the Wind Advisory states a rather pedestrian 15 - 25 mph winds but gusting to 55 which seems a little disproportional. In my neck of the woods, what are the factors determining wind "gustiness"?

If you are looking for a case study in mean, median, mode… head over to the long range thread

probably a bad sign for spring and summer given the way patterns stick

Yeah STJ is like a climo feature. It’s just way more active in Nino.

Detailed Forecast Today A chance of snow after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight bGM-Waverly Forecast Snow likely, mainly between 11pm and 4am. Areas of blowing snow after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -6. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest 12 to 17 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saturday A chance of snow, mainly before 7am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 2pm. Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 5. Wind chill values as low as -19. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night A slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1. Wind chill values as low as -21. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 12. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Hope don’t lose power tomorrow seesh IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken.

0z wasn't bad- it had a decent amount of precip and the wonderful snow mean was 1-2".

I’m thinking 3-4” here . If Nor for a bit maybe squeak 5”.. Ginx will jack

Not sure why you are harping on this so much - but here is the 3day period for PD weekend. I would probably consider the 5 days the whole of that threat window anyway. But as for “literally” the weekend… maybe 90%? The Thursday threat adds like .3” on the mean.

I really didn't understand Raindance in the ENSO thread adamantly claiming it was an ENSO neutral season due to the presence of the STJ. It's been dry AF...the STJ will usually make at least one cameo in any given season. Sometimes I think that guy gets lightheaded sniffing his own farts.

Let’s get a tick or two east on euro.

6Z EPS stops at 6 days. 0Z EPS was pretty meh for next weekend.

Yes, that shows the IVT coming all the way up here which is possible with the right alignment and a strong trough

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 219 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 MDZ006-008-011-503-505>508-061530- /O.CON.KLWX.EC.W.0004.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.HW.W.0001.260207T0900Z-260208T0000Z/ Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford- 219 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 ...EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. For the Extreme Cold Warning, dangerously cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero expected. * WHERE...Central and Southeast Howard, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Cecil, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Southeast Harford, and Southern Baltimore Counties. * WHEN...For the Extreme Cold Warning, from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday. For the High Wind Warning, from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will remain at or below zero during the day on Saturday due to windy conditions and cold temperatures. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside. Keep pets indoors as much as possible. Make sure outdoor animals have a warm, dry shelter, food, and unfrozen water. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside. && $$