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My biggest storm was on a day when rain wasn't even in the forecast, while the last two events with more than an inch forecasted resulted in little or nothing. Can't forecast random summer rains.

Some winners in the region. As always in the summer, the cutoffs are brutal.

South of the MA/CT line dry slot

0.01 here Surprised the rain gauge registered anything

Potential for sunny and dry ?

Didnt see any masks, did see someone roll into the venue holding a Domino's pizza and a sleeping bag which was their version of a plaid blanket. The logistics of getting that pizza to the lawn...probably bought in Pittsfield or Lee, transported, then carried from the parking lot through security and yes they had them open the pizza box for inspection.

I only ended up with .53 in Marysville for this event, but I’ll take it.

Pretty wet up here this AM, and all the way into Boston.

The summer of 1996 was the last time that JFK had over 50 days staying under 80° for a high temperature. Most Days With High Temperature Under 80°Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967 66 0 2 1996 55 0 3 1956 54 0 4 1950 52 0 5 1979 51 0 - 1954 51 0 - 1951 51 0 6 1992 50 0 7 1982 49 0 8 2000 48 0 9 1989 47 0 - 1977 47 0 - 1975 47 0 - 1953 47 0 10 1958 46 0 - 1957 46 0 Coolest Summer Average High Temperature Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967 77.2 0 2 1951 77.9 0 3 1996 78.2 0 - 1956 78.2 0 4 1992 78.4 0 5 1982 78.6 0 6 1979 78.7 0 - 1950 78.7 0 7 2000 78.8 0 8 1958 78.9 0 9 1976 79.1 0 10 2004 79.2 0 11 1957 79.3 0 - 1954 79.3 0 12 2009 79.4 0 - 1977 79.4 0 13 1975 79.5 0 14 1985 79.6 0 15 1965 79.7 0

I am curious. Are there a lot of mask wearers at Tanglewood?

64° -DZ 0.05” breezy Kinda feels like mid September

It wouldn't surprise me if it was because the anomalies under the core of that ridge are going to dwarf the cooler anomalies in association with the STJ to the south and east. There is a TON of heat being displaced.

Those drought maps are classic. Shows the exact opposite of what is occuring.

Opened up my shades and this is what I saw looking right at me.

0.49 yesterday, 0.11 since midnight today

Yeah, we aren’t going to know the exact location of the warmest winter departures until each month gets underway. +10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF. But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge. The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. +10 months super El Niño months since 1997-1998 Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East Dec 2015 Much of East Feb 2016 Upper Plains Mar 2016 Upper Midwest Dec 2023 Upper Midwest Feb 2024 Upper Midwest

1.07 beneficial rainfall from the event. Monthly total is now 2.58

A disappointing 0.11” for 8/16 imby/Columbia. 2.22” for August thru 8/16.

1.15" of rain total. .22" of that since midnight.

Another boring and lame event here in mby. What's up with the horrible forecast this season. Every single one of these events has failed this season. My forecast was for up to 2". I got .12

63/62 .32 in the high terrain. Took a trip to Tanglewood yesterday, as expected, a few raindrops caused some of the lawn crowd to flee for the cars, not the bravest group of people you will ever see. This weekend looks like it has potential.

I don't think area burned is telling you much about CC; because, other human factors are driving the long-term trends. Per Our World in Data, the vast majority of wildfires occur in grassland and savanna in the sub-tropics and tropics, roughly 50% in Africa. Forest burning is a small portion of area burned in all regions. Our World in Data cites a Science paper that attributes the long-term decrease in area burned to the spread and intensification of agriculture. In Europe and North America, reduction in cropland burned is another important long-term trend. Have to look at other stats to see the effect of climate change. The blog I linked makes the point that the intensity of the largest fires is increasing due to climate change. Big, intense fires are the most problematic but aren't well captured by the area burned stats. Here's a recent paper that finds that a small number of extreme fires are having an out-sized impact on the forest ecosystem in western and boreal North America. https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.aeg5802

66°/64° and 0.03 in the bucket. Tropical morning.