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This is the type of drivel we see now (see attachment). The CFS this far out does more harm than good IMHO b/c too many ppl simply have no idea how to use it and its caveats or they do know, and just seek to monetize w/ hype. Ever notice winters forecasts from many, always hedging cold/snow, even when we have a solid knowledge and skill a strong El Nino leads to mild temps across the CONUS? And how these loosers aromatically think just b/c its cold or strong El Nino, that just doesn't mean big snowstorms, but the absolute extremes from history. I blot the name of these sites b/c why give thmn exposure. That's what they want! And the general idea that b/c this may be the strongest El Nino on record, means you can simply extrapolate up every sensible wx impact from it? Well, that's not how it works. The atmosphere does not work in a linear 1-2-3 fashion! A great case of this was 2024 when it was supposed to be the end of days for the ATLC hurr season, and you had the global spike in temp from the Hunga-Tonga eruption from the WV in the stratosphere. Warmer shifts the ITCZ farther N into the Sahara, as was the case several 1000 years ago when the Sahara was green. We got big rains the in Sahara, but the problem was that the source region for tropical waves was put into a much drier environment, plus, tropical waves came off Africa at a higher latitude where the SSTs are cooler. This squashed a large part of the "seeds" for TCs in the MDR, and the result was the peak of the season was severely suppressed, and this was not fcst by any, and the hurr season for total numbers were no where near the fcsts. So the above is an example of non-linear effects w/ higher global temps, as one example.

I was down in Sarasota for a family wedding in late April and it already felt like mid summer, with a few lizards mixed in! It’s crazy how fast it warms up down there and I’d imagine there’s no gradual step down in intensity like we’re used to here.

As a huge pie fan straight from the heart of market basket, thank you for your service. Those blueberry pies have gotten me through many troubled times and chilly winter nights!

It's not a fish storm, it's a mammal storm!

Somewhere in Gifford Woods is a stand of old growth/virgin forest. I remember reading about it years ago.

All set...weenies rejoice for this winter!

[emoji445]Oh, Momma, I'm in fear for my life from the long arm of the law... Lawman has put an end to my runnin', and I'm so far from my home... Oh, Momma, I can hear you a'cryin; you're so scared and all alone... Hangman is comin' down from the gallows, and I don't have very long... Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Now to get the RRFS added (i.e. the GARBAGE MODEL according to @CoastalWx! I don't see it. It did well for the R+ swath across New England for the last event, and actually was not high as the HRRR 8".

I can look at models whenever I want works out perfectly

Got a nice 1.50” here today. Already over 2” MTD.

i believe that his synopsis is tailored to Hampshire and Franklin Counties. As far as the Springield -Holyoke -Chicopee area the forecast temperatures he puts up are on the low side to say the least. I find Western Mass News and CH 22 news to be far more accurate. That's understandable since he lives there but as far as Hampden County goes he's too low on the Daily high's.

The mei came in at the highest on record for june july at 2.41 just ahead of 1997 which had a june july value of 2.27 To me the coupling of this nino has almost gone under the radar

Yes it is highly likely we see convection in the far epac during winter provided it stays as warm there as 1997/1982 the real question is when we see that convection bc sst there rise throught the winter so by mar you actually dont need to high of a ssta to get convection If you look at olr ( which is a measurment of the amount of longwave radation escaping earth negative values indicate cold tall clouds bc those block olr and thus olr can be used as a measure for deep convection) in 1997 we didnt get it till nov/dec ( depends bc nov had most of the convection slightly n of the eq in the far epac but some was on the eq dec was more uniform to the eq) while in 1982 it didnt really happen til dec/ jan and even then its a weaker signal although still there likely weaker bc it was slightly less east based then 1997

seems like it's falling apart

Just caught the tail end of it as I was pulling into my driveway.

Did some posts just go “poof”?

That with rain or without cause holy hell Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Sunset alert, beautiful orange and pink sky!

Today's Highs (coolest of the next 7) PHL: 90 New Brnswck: 87 TEB: 85 LGA: 85 TTN: 85 EWR: 84 NYC: 84 ACY: 83 JFK: 83 ISP: 83 BLM: 81

I think you're both right. The SST PDO is a reflection of a propensity of the atmosphere to favor that state. Whether that is positive or negative. There are also far longer term oscillations known, such as the IPO. Which can have a period of 40-60 years. I personally believe the IPO explains the long term negative period we have witnessed. There are also short term (+PDO) events within a long term -IPO, and vice versa. Although they are shorter lived than they otherwise would be when they oppose the IPO. With the + or - phase dominant over that entire period depending on the IPO. We are currently in a negative phase. We have been since the late 1990's. For one reason or another, the atmosphere has been predisposed towards -PDO thanks to that. I actually think this explains quite well a year like 23-24(-IPO). Where you can get an el nino with a -PDO. Or on the flip side, a year like 95-96(+IPO). Where you can get a la nina with a +PDO. The EOF of a +IPO is posted below followed by a few studies. Pay extra attention to the second one, as it relates to the North Pacific. Powerful enso events have the potential to flip the Pacific. As the la nina following 97-98 is attributed to beginning this current negative IPO phase. So we're closing in on 30 years now. In this context, I find an inbound record breaking el nino all the more interesting. There's a shot at flipping the longer term Pacific to something more like the following EOF. Instead of the opposite, which we've become accustomed to. The record wildfires in Australia several years ago also may have acted to extend this negative period beyond what it otherwise would have been. By driving the triple dip la nina of the 2020's. In fact it's been postulated that had those fires not happened. 2015-16 likely would have begun the transition to +IPO. The influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2500-x "Since 1920, there are two warm (1924–1944 and 1977–1998) and two cold (1945–1976 and 1999–present) IPO phases, whose change is associated with abrupt shifts in North Pacific sea level pressure (SLP) and contrasting anomaly patterns in T and P and atmospheric circulation over the eastern and western Pacific." Statistical relationships between the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-07035-8 " While the spatial SST patterns that represent the IPO and ENSO are similar, the IPO is meridionally broader in the central to eastern Pacific, which may be caused by a lagged relationship with low-frequency SST variability in the equatorial Pacific. In addition, North Pacific SST anomalies of opposite sign to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies is a unique feature of the IPO that cannot be explained by decadal ENSO variability. This suggests a clear IPO and ENSO relationship, but also independence in some of the IPO’s characteristics." The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05784-y "A long pre-industrial control run with CESM1 is analyzed to show that there is a greater chance of ENSO activity to contribute to an IPO transition when off-equatorial western Pacific Ocean heat content reaches either a maximum (for El Niño to contribute to a transition to positive IPO) or minimum (for La Niña to contribute to a transition to negative IPO) as seen in observations." 2019-2020 Australian bushfire smoke, multi-year La Niña, and implications for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01204-8

Picked up .88" this evening. Pushing 17'' over the last 37 or 38 days.Only takes a couple tenths of rain to stand in the yard.

When it moistens me, everything is sweaty Dripping off my boobies, Mmm the way you dew me.

+1