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Latest Natty Blend from tomorrow through the weekend

High of 64F today. 62F now but honestly doesn’t feel “chilly”… it’s 62/62. It feels pleasant with the dew.

While obviously not in the same ballpark as Iniki, Lowell seems to be the worst hurricane impact to Kauai since that one: https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/09/hurricane-lowell-parts-of-kauai-like-a-war-scene/ A lot of gusts over hurricane strength in Kauai were reported, including at spots near sea level. Lihue’s highest sustained wind was 61 mph so the island did end up getting 50-knot winds. https://www.weather.gov/hfo/lowellpns

I've done twelve 14ers. Long's Peak was the first, and most challenging. Looking back, I don't think I'd want to do it again. Too many spots where one slip means serious injury at the least.

My apologies - I was referring to the August data, not July. ERSSTv6 was 1.67 in August. BOM GAMSSA was approximately 2.25.

I’ve been following this closely. CFSv2 has dropped RONI peak from +3.5 to +3.0 over last month or so due to August pause. That’s just a pause though and notable 3.4 warming has finally resumed. But I don’t see it catching back up. Thus, I’m currently at +3.0 for my educated guess. The BoM is way up at +3.6 and will likely bust too high like it did in ‘23. However, its SST anomalies are based on a dataset that’s ~0.3 to 0.4 warmer than ERSST, which NOAA uses, and which just adds confusion. Keep in mind that 1+2 has recently been strong thus making it the most E based on record for early Sept. beating 1997.

Yep, it's been on the Cfs2 plot for a couple weeks and you can see the reduction of red later this month on this 850 anomaly pic before the mother of all WWB of this Niño hits mid to late October.

Temperatures will likely peak in the lower and middle 80s tomorrow. A shower is possible tomorrow evening or tomorrow night. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. Highs on both days will likely peak in the upper 70s. The longer-term outlook has grown somewhat warmer through the middle of next week. In general, the temperature should top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s through the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. The SOI was -15.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.211 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.2° (1.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Post every other piece of guidance / NBM, ensemble mean or WPC . Of course you won’t

Roundy and others have shown that’s temporary. Maybe it knocks a tenth or two of the eventual peak. Will still be a record.

For sure, what a waste with a boundry so close.

I had that 47 here too in late August, it felt cold! My temperature is always within a degree or two of MPO even though I'm south of there and about 300 feet lower in elevation. Those tv mets I quoted use Avoca airport for their stats it's always a few degrees warmer there. I think the UHI effect comes into play with high population density and houses right next to each other. It does not allow for proper siting of weather equipment. That's the only way I can explain the 107-105-104 three days at a VP2 weather station in Valley Stream in early July when JFK was 102-100-100 for the same three days. That Davis unit even reached 101 on that smoke filled July 15 when the smoke stopped JFK from reaching 100 for a record breaking 4th day when they were stopped at 98 on that day. Never got above 94 here and I think MPO peaked at 93.

I don't know who's worse the clowns who keep touting nonexistent heat waves or droughts. Don't they ever look at models?

Another underperformer guaranteed tonight Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

low of 62 at 6:07am, high of 91 at 5:10pm.

Is Christmas after Halloween?

JB in a recent post shows data that the El Niño is leveling off below projections. Any comments from the experts?

since you are referring to me, let me assure you, and dispel any notion that you may have to the contrary, I do in fact use my ACs when they are needed, why else would I carry those anchors up and down the stairs every summer season and sacrifice valuable window space, if knew I were going to leave them turned off? I don't like the ACs. They are loud, one is 3 feet from my head when I sleep. they about 700-800 watts each and both run on the same branch circuit, so they are pushing the 80% constant draw rule. they are also inefficient, eating ton of power which produces carbon pollution emissions that i'd like to avoid producing if alternatives are available, like a 20 watt fan in a downstairs window. If I can cool my house to 67/68 while sleeping with scientifically-placed fans and strategically opened and closed windows, and so far it's been weeks of evenings/nights that have been like that, I too can enjoy ideal scientifically proven sleeping temperatures without the window rattlers. yes yes we know how proud you are about how you love AC. some of us don't and we don't mind posting about it. not sorry that gets you all hot and sweaty

You’ll be 81-83

no one will hit 90 70s here

I like the AC through early November..hard to sleep in any type of humidity

I went 2.4 to 2.6 for a tri monthly RONI peak a few weeks ago...could be a touch conservative, but I find it's best to err on the side of caution when guidance is signaling an unprecedented anomaly. It looked even worse then.