All Activity

Interesting article ... scientists having pitted AI against SRES model systems. It inspires new research ideas for me where this could just be a start. But in so far as what it achieves, the basic finding is that AI is under-selling extreme events, performing demonstratively worse than standard physics-based SRES modelling - particularly with intensity handling. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aec1433

MSP got down to 32 this morning. Very likely our coldest morning until October.

Yeah we cool first half and then hopefully heat and dews after 20th or so.

Nice little rain event this morning! Only 0.01" in gauge at 7 am, but close to 0.10" since then with light rain continuing to fall. Currently 57.3/54.0.

This looks really good. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Looks like a fairly active pattern for cold fronts moving through from time to time. Main trough looks to be centered over the Great Lakes. It may continue to be the case that the NW winds behind the lows are more impressive than the actual rainfall totals. We’ll see… Perhaps as we approach late May the ridge out West can push into the Great Lakes and Northeast. But we would want to lose that 50/50 low to have a shot at some extended warmth like we had in March and April.

It almost feels like a snow day with how excited I am for rain tonight.

Another bustola for rain-maybe a quarter inch?

Good morning, any thoughts on when the rain should move out of the LSV today? We are supposed to have a softball game this evening in Perry county, but even if the rain ends this afternoon, field conditions might not be ideal.

Glad I cut the lawn last night. Nice little rain. Will take every drop....

Coverage looks good, but intensity is relatively weak. Garrett Co looked like they were in a good spot and they have all of 0.15” per the mesonet.

Your chart actually shows the flaws of MEI quite well. It’s only looking for one type/configuration of Nino. You can see how it significantly lagged the 2023-2024 Nino because of this. It may very well be true that the MEI will rate higher this time due to the +PMM, but you still have the -PDO working against it.

sleep-deprived overnight warehouse shift, maybe he's hallucinated? Ineedsleep

But what to THE VIBEZ say about the rain??

Wow radar is full today! 57 degrees…Stay dry!

Almost 7" accumulated, but only 3" overnight, which was supposed to be the bulk of the storm. We'll see what this last wave brings this morning, if anything.

How are your sweat pores holding up this morning?

You stole my comment lol. Radar looks better than I expected.

Have you looked at radar?

Central Park and Greenwich Village were very close. So they didn’t adjust the total. You can see the big disparity between Newark and the other surrounding sites before they lowered the Newark total in late March. https://www.weather.gov/okx/20260222_23 GREENWICH VILLAGE 20.4 IN 0230 PM 02/23 PUBLIC CENTRAL PARK 19.7 IN 0700 PM 02/23 OFFICIAL NWS OBS UNION COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 27.2 IN 0700 PM 02/23 OFFICIAL NWS OBS 1 NW CRANFORD 21.0 IN 0157 PM 02/23 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 SSW WESTFIELD 20.0 IN 0114 PM 02/23 PUBLIC 1 NW FANWOOD 19.5 IN 0700 AM 02/24 COCORAHS SPRINGFIELD 19.3 IN 0230 PM 02/23 PUBLIC CLARK 18.5 IN 0900 AM 02/23 COCORAHS 1 SSE SPRINGFIELD 17.0 IN 0600 PM 02/23 PUBLIC HUDSON COUNTY... 1 WSW HOBOKEN 23.0 IN 0800 AM 02/24 COCORAHS KEARNY 21.5 IN 0100 PM 02/23 EMERGENCY MNGR HOBOKEN 20.5 IN 0300 PM 02/23 TRAINED SPOTTER HARRISON 18.0 IN 0800 AM 02/24 COCORAHS

You know it’s going to be a big event when they have to adjust the scale higher.

Cocked?

? What

63 when I left the house. Expected rain totals have dwindled quite a bit in recent days but some people should still do well today. Carry on.