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Lock it in?

What are you trying to say???? I'm part of the pack?? Lol Bring on the fangs!

Wind has been absolutely insane. My Tempest is NOT in a good spot for measuring windspeed and it’s routinely returning 30mph gusts, higher than I’ve ever seen from it except in like 2-3 other instances which were one off gusts.

So if it will still do all these things…then who f’n cares if the temp has increased, or not? It’s been frigid for two months. Looks to stay that way for the foreseeable future. CC is not the issue why you haven’t had a good snowstorm. But I’ve had a good snowstorm already The CT shore has had a couple. So has Cape Cod. Virginia has too..a few of them. Delaware, NC, Maryland, Chicago, NNE. All killing it. It’s just random crazy ju ju, or whatever you want to call it. And that’s that currently.

Had this originally in the other thread but moved here. Regarding the intense rates and low visibility of the 12/30/2000 storm, here's a pic I took with a good ol' SLR (non digital) camera. For reference, the car on the right is at most 75-80 feet away. Still doesn't do it justice.

I think there’s some wisdom in this. Kids growing up in today’s climate will, 20+ years from now, look back with snowy nostalgia on winters that followed this general pattern across much of the region. We bring this up often, and this is a good example of how fickle our memories can be when it comes to how things actually unfolded in the past.

I am actually super tilted this morning. I realize how stupid this is since I was ecstatic less than 24 hours ago, but I'm about ready to punt the first two weeks of January. Gross.

Well ... if it is wrong and a +PNA does take place instead, that would justify setting probabilities. I will just say that in my 25 years of these index awareness', which includes observing their correlations both in situ, and over time spans, and how the various mass fields the numerically represent ( teleconnections) then subsequently interact ...etc, I haven't seen a model +PNA win as a direct go to very often. Typically, when in modeling conflict that starts with the PNA, when the EPO arrives in the guidance, the PNA suspends and/or mutes ... Again, with time lag... the -EPO collapses and the +PNA then materializes. All the overnight stuff is doing is telling us that the previous paradigm is not going to go straight into a +PNA... It is going to go a route that frankly tends to happen most of the time. It'll be interesting to see where this goes. By the way, don't look at the 12z GFS operational run.

As I mentioned in another thread recently, I've relocated. As such, I've taken keen interest in the west coast weather given that amidst the chaos of the move, my ski season this year won't start till mid-January (haven't missed much this year so far). Generally speaking - it seems that New England snowfall is inversely correlated with the Sierra Nevada, whereas it appears much less correlated with the Rockies. This is mostly due to the existence of a Western Ridge being a positive for NE. Question for the Mets: What is a pattern (from a teleconnection POV) that is positive for both the Sierra and New England?

I usually hit up Bakers on the Kennebec in Pittston or James Eddy in Dresden, Fished at Worthings just over the bridge in Gardiner heading back to Aug and have never done any good there, Those 3 are in the process of getting camps on, I have not fished in Bowdinham for 20 yrs or so but that's where i'm going saturday, I have had good luck in the past there.

Noticed that GEFS is heading MJO into Phase 6. IF correct, we will have to wait through mid January for a great pattern....on other hand EURO has it neutral before heading back toward 7-8. I think that is why we are struggling with the mid range. Phase 6 won't work....

Euro gives DC a dusting overnight

They always insist…it isn’t snowing due to CC. When that’s so not it. Cuz it’s snowing everywhere else lol. But ya…silly debate when we’re freezing.

You’ve been saying this for 2-3 weeks…the cold keeps coming. The cold isn’t the problem this year.

Chuck?

We're in our usual 2 weeks away from being 10 days away pattern. Back to today... Looks like some Christmas stuff is missing from the front yard, off to wander the neighborhood looking for it. 31F

I doubt the cold pool is a problem. It's not not expansive and not very cold while surrounded by AN water temps. The -PNA otoh is. These runs make me think that SE ridge is real. Of course, it can change in 6 or 12 hours, which is a true testament of the accuracy of these so-called "predictive" models. Times like now when I wish we only had 936-1212! Lol

This stinks! Lol. I was hyped after the past couple of days of trends. But this has happened before. The rug does get pulled out! Hopefully things come back

Maybe we should relax… the models have had a tough year and obviously they have started drinking early for the new year. .

Cold dumps west and pumps a ridge that bridges with our -NAO. Not ideal.

Lunch with a view…15 degrees and snow showers.

Glad to see some LES lottery winners! Only about a half inch here, but may briefly get a piece of that band before it dissipates / drifts north.

Looking longer term, don't like the trend of last few runs. The ops models are now showing great lakes cutters around day 10. Seems as soon as people start talking up the big snow chances the models go to pot...

Multiple days of good trends to a February 2021 redux in the blink of an eye.

Wind continues west 25-35 mph occasionally gusting to 40 mph. Temperature: 34f humidity: 42% dewpoint: 13f Well the big Great Lakes storm now resides blocked just north and northeast of the Great Lakes. I believe this feature is basically as I said the other day realigning our pattern in the eastern portion of the United States This Great Lakes southern Canadian storm will unravel in time and when that happens my thinking is a west to west southwesterly flow should resume and over time boot out the coldest air opening the door for wet events from the west and southwest overall rather than snow events. I also think we see the SE ridge back for a time. I am not saying no more snow this year, but I am also not buying all the hype that’s on social media about giant snowstorms January 4th to 12th timeframe. (Maybe I’m doing reverse psychology, but I don’t think so. I’ve seen this before) Next to track in the immediate future light snow / flurries New Years Eve to New Year’s Day dusting to 0.5” totals a lucky soul sees 1 inch, with embedded disturbance off the Great Lakes pinwheeling around the big low in southern Canada north of the Great Lakes. See if that disturbance can try to turn the corner but I don’t see that right now probably just passes through heads eastward.