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This is very true. BUT, the Euro ain’t even close to the Euro of old. Hard to dispute that. That old Euro was a rock more times than not. I’d take that old Euro back in a hot second.

Model is broken

one of the better 30-45 minutes burst of snow and wind in a long time.

Super Bowl Sunday…that was a nice event. Snowed moderately to heavy all day..great vibe.

yep. timing + burst of heavier + reduced vis + wind. it should be a slam dunk for one. ARR is gusting to 56MPH.

models have been over-amping -epo’s most of the winter thus far, which happens to have downstream consequences of storms not phasing early and cutting. i would be careful to take the default position of “every trough will come east.” it’s important to understand the upstream model biases in play.

Models haven't gotten worse. We just track stuff much further out than we used to. 144 hours used to be utter clown range but now it’s prob akin to like 108-120 from a decade or 15 years ago. And like 96 hours a couple decade ls ago. There’s a lot of threats back then that didn’t even appear until inside 6 days. The Feb 2013 blizzard didn’t show up until about 132-138 hours on the euro (and it was completely by itself for a few runs too)….Feb 2006 didn’t show up until about 108 hours out. A lot of our SWFEs back in the late 2000s/early 2010s didn’t stop trending hard untie inside 36 hours. Also we had far fewer model runs back then so less data to parse creating a veneer of stability.

and I went down to the MA forum to see how they feel about this challenging period, and if I was off my rocker, and it looks like I'm not alone in my thinking as some feel this period needs to be watched for something to pop in near term. I guess it really is "up in the air" right now. hehe

Maybe we can get lucky like the old days and pull of a Feb 7 2021 weenie band Sunday/Monday https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-7-2021 That storm was forecast to be a massive hit in the mid range, then had the rug pulled in the 48-72 hour range came back last second to still be 8-14"

Yes, For sure. That’s the random/luck factor. Back in the 80’s, it was this set up all the time…get worse as we closed in-you could practically guarantee it. Then that tide turned in the 90’s, and really went the opposite way in 2000’s/2010’s, where almost every system trended better as it closed in. And now we back again(and have been for the last 4 years) to the 80’s crap of trending everything worse. As Ray said, it’s gonna change, it always does, just a matter of when.

perfect rush hour timing on this one too

NW Indiana about to get shellacked .

Big Meadows at around 3,400'. Almost got stuck there in an early "freak" snowstorm in 10/78. Crazy, crazy time getting off the mts in snow and sleet.

True. The maga drought isn't helping. The Shenandoah mountains have been a tinder box the past couple visits I've made out there. I wanted to climb Stoney Man in the snow this winter but that hasn't happened.

one day when nws offices figure the snow squall warning thing out, they’ll issue one for instances such as this.

Makes sense. if you over-amp the -epo in the long range and then deamplify, the cold comes east rather than dig for gold in the west.

Might be able to pull off a inch or so here Saturday

Hard to get snow without some moisture. My yard has been below normal for annual precipitation for the past 6 years. Same at HGR.

It's mind blowing honestly. You'd think just being higher elevation would mean at least some snow. What happened to high elevation snows on out mountains? That's been nonexistent forever.

I think it's settled. You need to sell your place.

Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (1932) NYC: 70 (1932) LGA: 64 (1995) JFK: 60 (1950) Lows: EWR: 7 (1957) NYC: -5 (1914) LGA: 7 (1988) JFK: 5 (1988) Historical: 1831: The greatest snowstorm recorded in American history until this time occurred from Georgia to the northeast and west to the Ohio Valley. Gettysburg, PA reported 30 inches and Pittsburgh, PA recorded 22 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1863 - The greatest snowstorm of record for Cincinnati OH commenced, and a day later twenty inches of snow covered the ground. That total has remained far above the modern day record for Cincinnati of eleven inches of snow in one storm. (David Ludlum) 1882 - Southern California's greatest snow occurred on this date. Fifteen inches blanketed San Bernardino, and even San Diego reported a trace of snow. (David Ludlum) 1888: The temperature in Eureka, CA fell to 20F as a cold spell affected the Golden State. The temperature at San Francisco dropped to 29F. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1912: This was the last month that double digit sub-zero temperatures were recorded in Washington, DC. The minimum temperature for the date is -13°F. in Washington, DC and at College Park, Md. The temperature fell to an incredible low reading of 26 degrees below zero. The Great Cold Wave of January 1912 a record cold wave settled across the South to the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of the extremely cold temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic included: Bayard, WV: -30°, Hagerstown, MD: -27°, College Park, MD: -26°, Lincoln, VA: -25°, Dale Enterprises near Harrisonburg, VA: -25°, Frederick, MD: -21°, Culpeper, VA: -20°, Laurel, MD: -19°, Lost City, WV: -14°, Washington, DC: -13°, Fredericksburg, VA: -11°, Baltimore, MD: -2°. Other locations that reported record low temperatures for the date included: Williamsport, PA: -17°, Harrisburg, PA: -14°, Hartford, CT: -12°, Elkins, WV: -12°, Huntington, WV: -12°, Avoca, PA: -10°, Roanoke, VA: -8°, Lynchburg, VA: -7°, Providence, RI: -6°, Dayton, OH: -4°, Tulsa, OK: -3°, Baltimore, MD: -2°, Charleston, WV: -2°, Richmond, VA: -1°, New York (Central Park), NY: 2°, Philadelphia, PA: 2°, Greensboro, NC: 3°, Raleigh, NC: 6°, Charlotte, NC: 7°, Columbia, SC: 10°, Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 10°, Athens, GA: 15°, Waco, TX: 16° and Austin, TX: 18 °F.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1916: Locations from the northern Plains to the deep south reported record low temperatures for the date including: Watertown, SD: -38°, Aberdeen, SD: -36°, Grand Forks, ND: -35°, Mobridge, SD: -35°, Timber Lake, SD: -31°, Sioux Falls, SD: -31°, Wheaton, SD: -28°, Waterloo, IA: -26°, Kennebec, SD: -24 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1932: The home of a 13 member family in Lexington, TN was destroyed by a tornado. 10 fatalities resulted. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 76°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1952: Glaze, Sleet and Ice storm across Minnesota from St Cloud south into Iowa. 1,100 Northwestern Bell telephone wires down. The Buffalo Ridge in the Pipestone area the hardest hit with ¾ inches of solid ice on Northern State Power wires with icicles to 3 inches. Northwestern Bell reported ice to 1 ½ inches of ice on their wires in the same area. Thunder and a shower of ice pellets accompanied the storm in New Ulm and Mankato. Minneapolis General Hospital treated 81 people, victims of falls on icy streets. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972: In Loma, Montana, the temperature soared from 54 degrees below zero to 49 degrees above zero on January 14-15, 1972. The 103-degree change is the greatest ever recorded in the world for a 24 hour period. 1882: Snow fell in southern California, with the highest amount of 15 inches at San Bernardino. Three feet of snow fell in Campo over four days and produced 8-foot drifts in spots. Two to five inches fell in outlying San Diego, including four inches along Poway Grade, 3 inches at El Cajon, and one inch in Poway. Five inches fell in Riverside. Light snow fell in Del Mar. Snowflakes fell but did not stick at San Diego Lindbergh Field. Birds and livestock were killed, telegraph lines were knocked down, and citrus crops were damaged. 1974: Severe flooding in Idaho was the result of unseasonably warm temperatures, Chinook winds and heavy rains. The flooding is regarded to be the worst weather disaster in the history of the state. Damage totaled $50 million. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1979 - Chicago, IL, was in the midst of their second heaviest snow of record as, in thirty hours, the city was buried under 20.7 inches of snow. The twenty-nine inch snow cover following the storm was an all-time record for Chicago. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. By evening blustery northwest winds and temperatures near zero at Grand Forks ND were producing wind chill readings of 50 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) 1988 - A powerful Pacific storm produced rain and high winds in the western U.S. In Nevada, a wind gust to 90 mph at Reno was an all-time record for that location, and wind gusts reached 106 mph southwest of Reno. A wind gust to 94 mph was recorded at nearby Windy Hill. Rainfall totals in Oregon ranged up to six inches at Wilson River. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A winter storm spread snow and sleet and freezing rain from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the northeastern U.S. Freezing rain in West Virginia caused fifteen traffic accidents in just a few minutes west of Charleston. Tennessee was deluged with up to 7.5 inches of rain. Two inches of rain near Clarksville TN left water in the streets as high as car doors. 1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. blanketed the mountains of southwest Utah with 18 to 24 inches of snow, while sunshine and strong southerly winds helped temperatures warm into the 60s in the Central Plains Region. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE with a reading of 63 degrees. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: A low pressure area deepened 18 millibars (0.71 inches of mercury) in only 12 hours and bottomed out at 969 millibars (28.62 inches of mercury) as it tracked from the Tennessee Valley to northern New York state. It produced quite a range of nasty weather. Heavy snow with blizzard conditions prevailed in Ohio and eastern Michigan. Detroit, MI reported thunder and lightning with heavy snow and received a total of 11 inches, their biggest single storm snowfall in nearly 10 years. An unusual severe weather outbreak for the time of the year so far north occurred in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southeastern New York. Tornadoes touched down at Moosic and Lumberville, PA. Dime size hail fell at Orange, NJ and thunderstorm winds gusted to 87 mph at Gettysburg, PA. Small hail fell at Weather Service Office in Newark, NJ, the first time hail had ever fallen at this location in January. Emmitsburg, MD reported a wind gust of 88 mph. Rare January thunderstorm outbreak in DC area 40-50mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2009: In Washington State, freezing fog and freezing drizzle enveloped much of the Inland Northwest during 13-23 January 2009. The area most affected by this was the high plateau region along Highway 2 between Wenatchee and Spokane. 2016: Hurricane Alex became the first January hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Alice in 1955.

Whats up with this? I've been watching the Shenandoah mountains for a snowing hiking trip for years. 4k plus mountains that never get snow. I've had more snow here alone the bay than Big Meadow at like 4500' elevation for the past 5 years.

I'm in Smithsburg just on the west side of the Catoctins. It's really hard to beleive how bad it's been since the start of the 21-22 season.

well, this was unexpected.

Does this bode well for Saturday? .