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New year, same story. Here are the maximums, minimums, and average temperatures (degrees Fahrenheit) for January 13th and January 21st this year at Reagan National Airport (DCA): January 13th: Maximum 53 Minimum 30 Average 41.5 January 21st: Maximum 43 Minimum 19 Average 31.0 This is the 5th consecutive year that January 13th has averaged at least 8.5 degrees warmer than January 21st at DCA, and brings average temperatures for those two days in DC (DCA since 1945) to the numbers in the below summary table during the 155 years since daily temperatures began to be officially recorded in DC in January 1872. I have broken down that 155-year period into 1872-1983, when January 13th was the coldest day of January and January 21st was the second warmest day of January in DC; 1984-2013, when January 13th was the warmest day of January and January 21st was the coldest day of January at DCA; and 2014-2026, which is the 13-year period since I discovered the flip-flop between January 13th and January 21st. Period Jan 13 Jan 21 Jan 21 minus Jan 13 1872-1983 33.3 36.8 +3.5 1984-2013 40.3 32.1 -8.2 2014-2026 41.3 32.4 -8.9 If only maximum temperatures are analyzed for January 13th and January 21st, the summary table shows an even greater temperature disparity for those two days during those three periods: Period Jan 13 Jan 21 Jan 21 minus Jan 13 1872-1983 40.2 44.8 +4.6 1984-2013 48.5 39.5 -9.0 2014-2026 51.1 39.5 -11.6 So what exactly is going on here? When I first discovered the January 13th/21st temperature flip-flop in early 2013, I consided that it could be a random variation, but its magnitude seemed too large to me for that to be the case. I did have to concede, however, that if the flip-flop disappeared or significantly weakened as the years moved on, a random variation would be the best explanation. As of today, January 21, 2026, I conclude that a random variation is now off the table as a plausible explanation because it is off-the-charts unlikey that such a varation would not only continue, but actually increase to some extent in magnitude during the past 13 years. Consider the astonishing situation regarding maximum temperatures on those two days at DCA: Between 1872-1983 and 1984-2013, the January 13th average maximum increased 8.3 degrees from 40.2 to 48.5, while the January 21st average maximum decreased (in the face of rising annual temperatures) 5.3 degrees from 44.8 to 39.5, for a 13.6 degree relative change. However, instead of those two days moving at least somewhat closer together in maximum temperature during the most recent 13 years, which would have been almost certain if the flip-flop during 1984-2013 had been a random variation, the January 13th average maximum increased an additional 2.6 degrees to 51.1, while the January 21st average maximum stayed the same at 39.5. If I were to speculate as to what is going on, I would guess that it has something to do with the unprecedented rise in Arctic temperatures since 1983 fostering a currently unexplained phenomenon in which Arctic air is somehow generally blocked from arriving in DC on January 13th, while being somehow generally facilitated to arrive there on January 21st. Hopefully, someone who is knowledgeable about weird meteorological phenomena can determine the specific mechanism that has enabled the current situation.

32 with light snow in Wolf. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Sorta reads we are gonna wait and not make changes till we get the flight data. .

https://x.com/brandonlanewx/status/2014119481144955012?s=46 An interesting little trend. I know the precip/clown maps aren’t what we want to see but worth keeping an eye on, especially after more data gets ingested tonight.

CMC is best case scenario north IMO.

-22 in Leesburg lmao. Going to be cold AF for sure, but this is crazy output.

Interesting...even from a slide rule old fart!

Yeah, which is definitely unfortunate. The good news is there’s at least some snow cover, and there won’t be much modification of the airmass due to the upstream snowpack combined with the winds/advection. This will be one of those arctic outbreaks where the airmass is very impressive (which I define as -35C or colder at H85 somewhere in the lower 48), but the ground temps underperform relatively speaking. Still a decent arctic outbreak, but not what it could be. This is opposite of what occurred in January 2009, where the airmass wasn’t crazy cold but there were very low temps due to fresh deep snowpack and clear/calm conditions. Regardless, we may see the coldest temp here since January 2019.

https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/weather/2024/02/lehigh-valley-weather-heavy-band-of-snow-dumps-foot-or-more-from-macungie-to-hellertown.html#:~:text=Lehigh Valley weather%3A Heavy band,more from Macungie to Hellertown&text=Snow falls in the Lehigh,Valley on Feb. 17%2C 2024.

love the enthusiasm, you'll balance out No Snow Flo and reestablish our equilibrium

Was it colder and snowier than Euro still? .

I do kinda remember that, I lived in Barto it was ridiculous 02 maybe?

I've wondered that too the past couple of days.

On the fringe here. 0.25” or so.

Who the frig has time to cook between work and model watching. Try some takeout. Taco Bell usually works wonders on my colon.

I honestly wonder if the Canadians are cooperating with the Europeans on weather modeling and leaving us out in the proverbial cold.

As long as it doesn't last for 8 weeks straight.

My top 3 biggest heartbreaks are: 2/8/13 2/5/10 March 2001 Biggest Miracle: 12/26/10 Biggest storm missed while alive: PD2 - was in FL at Daytona 500.

Sounds like Atl NWS isn’t buying the NW trends. https://x.com/justinwx02/status/2014108839042322785?s=10 .

Yep, not sure we should be celebrating or jumping off hypothetical bridges when we have this much run to run inconsistencies still. I've been telling stakeholders 12z Friday guidance is "lock-in" time since Monday AM. Patience.

Hopefully they are seeding it for a southern storm .

off to bed up at 245.. hopefully when I refresh this page there's tons of new post

just can't win for losing, we can't get a storm to phase and when they finally do it's a cutter

Haha- yes, not a thing, never has been, never will be....all models are showing 020-050 degree wind headings throughout the storm at CLT. They do not deviate much, if any, between models. NE wind = CAD from a 1040+ high over NY state throwing out dew points in NC/SC down in the teens...using this logic alone, if the low plowed through the wedge, the wind field would veer out to ENE or even south of 090.....then the CAD would become in-situ or not even present in the first place Also why they are looking at the actual metadata from the Baja low before buying into it. Metadata has already occurred, so it isn't influenced by any of the models. When the models begin to feed in the metadata, you will more than likely see several of them singing a different tune.... They obviously have some good forecasters over there who have a good handle on the potential flaws in the Euro- it takes a lot of experience to come to that conclusion after picking the ensembles apart