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  2. WxUSAF
    Once again the NAM looks like crap before a precip event. But hrrr is really rainy for the metro areas tomorrow.
  3. snowfan
    On top of all that, it’s a good spot to look for rattlers
  4. IronTy
    I love dolly sods. We've still never been there in any season other than the dead of winter though. Winter backpacking there is always an adventure.
  5. CAPE
    Still seeing the colder than avg surface temps in the northern plains like the previous run. Looking at each month Feb is coldest. The EPO ridge is more amped in JFM and with the advertised TPV position there is a mechanism for cold air delivery from the Polar region, similar to last months edition. The latest CFS looks warmish for Dec and Jan but then quite cold for Feb and March, due to a strong west based -NAO and a weaker/better positioned Aleutian low. All just speculation at this point, but I would expect an overall mild winter with the possibility of timing some cold with a disturbance in the southern stream a time or 2.
  6. snowman19
    It has been completely awful with the strength too. The worst out of any other model, in a world all to its own. It finally woke up and is playing catch up now. The weakest out of any other model for months and blatantly wrong
  7. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  8. csnavywx
    This is a known issue with the model. It will almost always favor CP Ninos until later on. I'm going to guess this has at least partially has to do with too much ocean model vertical mixing and diffusion as well as convective schemes that underestimate coupling and convective feedbacks (e.g. Bjerknes feedback).
  9. EasternLI
    I feel that it will too but think it's also important to point out that there is some resistance out there.
  10. Birds~69
    72F/DP 71F Temps haven't been bad but the DPs have sucked...
  11. mitchnick
    My point was despite any warming, last year's Niña was pretty canonical. This year's Niño can still happen (canonical) by either the PDO coming around or the Niño overwhelming it. And when you consider all the seasonal models are pretty well aligned to one, odds favor it short of a total failure of all seasonal modeling.
  12. Damage In Tolland
    Does anyone else have acorns coming down ? Medium sized green ones . Started a few weeks ago and getting worse which means anger
  13. donsutherland1
    The first half of June+first half of July would have ranked as the 10th warmest such period. The second half of June + second half of July would rank as the 51st coolest such period (mean temperature: 74.0°; 2009 with a mean temperature of 68.0° is the coolest such period).
  14. rclab
    I was hoping to read a post from you again before I transition. Stay well, you’re already blessed. As always …..
  15. ChescoWx
    Here in East Nantmeal July finished with a slight 0.3 below normal average temperature for the month. This was the 4th below average month across our first 7 months of 2026. I will have the Chester County wide month summary later today. We turn a bit more humid today with rain chances again increasing by tomorrow night and lasting through much of the upcoming work week. No total washouts but a chance at some much-needed rainfall for areas who missed the beneficial rains last week.
  16. snowman19
    @Gawx Over/under that the MEI is already at or above +2 given the current obs of the parameters it measures? If so, given that those parameters are projected to only get stronger the next few months, I think we set a new MEI record (old record: +2.9)…..
  17. ChescoWx
    Here in East Nantmeal July finished with a slight 0.3 below normal average temperature for the month. This was the 4th below average month across our first 7 months of 2026. I will have the Chester County wide month summary later today. We turn a bit more humid today with rain chances again increasing by tomorrow night and lasting through much of the upcoming work week. No total washouts but a chance at some much-needed rainfall for areas who missed the beneficial rains last week.
  18. EasternLI
    Well yeah, but that's a totally different animal from today. That's in sync with the PDO. This El nino is out of sync. That makes all the difference and I can try to make a post later as to why. I never had any problem with la nina's. Weak to moderate enso of either sign historically can treat me well locally. It's neutral or very strong events I'm not overly fond to see. Here's a picture from the blizzard this past winter. Ended up with 2 feet.
  19. mreaves
    Stumbling around, delirious from thirst.
  20. IrishRob17
    I knew all about it since it’s local, on Thursday I was driving home and saw one of the jets in the distance and thought: cool, the weather is finally decent enough for them to practice. Then a favorite song came on the radio and I started cranking it, windows down, lost in the song if you will and as I got to the bottom of the hill here in the park they buzzed the park completely drowning out my blasting music and quite honestly startled the shit out of me. If I had a cup of coffee I would've spilled some on my shirt and I would've wanted some butts! (Top Gun reference).
  21. Damage In Tolland
    Dew dew dew da da da da !!
  22. CoastalWx
    Looks dewlicious next week. Maybe a small break Tuesday and Wednesday.
  23. CoastalWx
    With the black bear that knocks over his bird feeder?
  24. donsutherland1
    Heat domes aren't new. But the warming background climate has made even relatively ordinary heat domes much hotter than they were decades ago. Regional patterns coupled with a wetter climate has likely contributed to the recent absence of long-duration heatwaves in parts of the Northeast.
  25. Damage In Tolland
    He found one in the bathtub trying to turn the spigot on?
  26. Today
  27. Modfan2
    In 4 short months we’ll be talking how winter is a bust due to lack of snow in November and and first two weeks of December.
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