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Closest I can get on PW with 12z RGEM

bingo.

I’m surprisingly enjoying the cold. It feels like a throwback to my youth including waiting for the snow. We’re near the 65 year anniversary of one of the great 20th century blizzards that buried Virginia to Maine.

Thanks man!! Looking forward to it!

I just posted 06z ukie right above yours

Enjoy I did that one year in wildwood.

FV3 essentially misses the area and is wayyyy South. RGEM is a SECS is 7" lollis in Monmouth Cty

Maps? Rgem UKIE

I'll be in Atlantic city from tonight till Monday.. hopefully take a nice snowy walk on the boardwalk Saturday night!!

Ukie went kind of meh at 6z compared to 0z though

I think many of us would take the 06z UKIE too

I'd take that and run.

No

2010 shall live in infamy in the nyc metro....it was great by today's standards, but most of the good stuff was just a hair too south....still i'd take the 3 big storms we had that were around a foot each in a heartbeat today. but as a retiree now with bad knees and a bad back, and adult kids who have to drive each day, i no longer wish for a lot of snow. i never had to work or drive in it, working in a school, and my kids would be home, but things are different now. 3-6 inches is about my limit these days. and even they are getting hard to come by. 2021 was quite good, but we were all busy with something else that year. i still suffer bouts of brain fog from long covid.

It was a very scary drive for me this morning

I think this warm up is a bit different than the head fake we saw modeled for early December. It’s coming, and it’s pretty obvious by every parameter except the MJO. The question is how long? Modeling seems to show the Scandinavian ridge migrating into a -NAO set up and the EPO going negative as well. My bet is by new years we’re back in business but I may be wrong. I think Jan could be cold before we enso rears its ugly head in Feb.

Great post and so true. I would emphasize that the first half or three quarters of the pack goes a LOT quicker than the last part due to heavy compaction resulting from lower density. I've seen countless times where that last 4-6" hangs on way longer than you'd expect due to the extremely dense icy nature of the pack. As you alluded to, sleet mixed in helps greatly but also the pack itself creates its own icy center due to the daily melt and refreeze cycle. I know you know all this; I just love this topic ha.

you know, some of you keep giving that guy a platform by breathlessly posting about him. we know he sucks

We don’t need brutal cold either going forward…climo will be kicking in, and normal temps will be sufficient too.

Nope

Nope....

Also - get 0.25" of liquid with this kind of sounding for New Haven and you can squeeze out 4" of snow or something.

Icon is dusting to 2". 3+ to the south

Golden shovels, showers.. you name it