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Yeah, it's been quite windy this week. Clocked 59 MPH on my Davis, but I am only at 7300'. The downslope has kept us quite warm too, with a low of 53 degrees this morning and a high of 59 so far today.

Bryce and Steve brothers?

Can you add "up here"? Kev loves that

I think the getting shafted meter is rather high on this one. Certainly not a lock. That beside said, even 1" will look pretty cool w/the Christmas lights and cold in place.... 28F

It truly is around a once a generation start based on the 70+ years of Mansfield stake data. It’s December 11th. It feels and looks like February.

21Z RAP

you should be looking at the mesoscale models now. GFS is unreliable IMHO, especially with digging clippers for our area

Meso event...lean towards meso models

Doesn’t look like the most will involve you.

Plan on 3-5” 90 South and 2-4” north and you’ll know finals

Will is right in that it won’t take much to get a nice 5 to 8 fluff job. It’s still mild water to the south so move that moisture north a little bit and you’re in the game. However, we’ve also seen these fast flow set ups go to shit as we get inside 72 hours so that’s always on my mind. This is different than the inevitable north ticks on some guidance from a short wave coming out of the Deep South.

That’s right. I am your daddy.

It went from like .5 to .75 to 1". By Sunday it'll be in line with the other models

saying that a 30 day MJO 8 is supposed to happen is like saying that the 384hr GFS solution is going to happen lol

Funny, it absolutely nailed 12-2 in my area. I really didn't pay too much attention to other areas

Some are salivating for an inch..so I guess that's the new SECS until morale improves.

I have distant memories of short range models fumbling these types of setups, which enhances the tease. But modeling has improved a lot since the 2000s, and especially the 90s. We don't see big, late shifts very often anymore.

I never expect to have a pack in December, but it's nice when it happens once in a great while. Certainly feeling lucky to have what we have on the ground here in my area. After the showers last night it is SOLID. Am I twisting the knife too much?

Really looked like it might come north a touch even if still narrow but the GFS is dead set on a bay jackpot

GFS is fugly. Hope it's wrong. I hope after the upcoming thaw we can get back in the freezer by the end of the year. I know a lot of people hate dry and cold...I get it, but I hate warm when it's supposed to be cold. God knows we have many months of warm weather.

FWIW, big improvement on the 18z RRFS vs. 12z... now generally in line with NAM and RGEM.

It’s kind of a tease because if you amped this up just a little, you’d probably have quite an intense fronto band with good ratios…difference between a 1-2” scraper and a 5-8” fluff job.

Slightly improvements on rgem and GFS but we’re at the point where it can’t trend back. It has to keep ticking better for this to be a solid event outside of the south coast and far SE/Cape.

This will not be the event that unites us unfortunately. Good thing is it is a rather wimpy pos so even those who get the 'good' snow are probably looking at a max of 2-3", and most will see an inch or less.

Getting late in the game. It was a closer graze, but it would take 5 more moves like that to just get anything even remotely interesting