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I think it was last year or the year before, JB was hyping the spire when they first started showing it on WB. Haven't heard him reference it since then...

Exactly.

Keep the 60’s and 70’s. We’ll take them in April, and they’ll be nowhere to be had. You know this.

How does this model have rain north west of the snow lol

Lol Jesus guys…let it marinate a little bit

16 weeks from 40s and drizzle

You always take what you don’t have.

We are about 10 weeks from 60's, 12 weeks from 70's, 15 weeks from 80's, and about 18 weeks from getting some severe weather threats

I can't remember if it was last year or the year before, but about ALL the south facing flowers/bulbs came up, then disappeared in Feb when a couple near zero nights took care of them.

74 at 3:10pm.

On pivotal hr 384 just gave up. .

doesn't work :/

Garbage pattern

Remember this line kids.

The new NMME has an even stronger El Niño for later this year by ~0.2C. The end of the run, Sept of 2026, peaks at ~+1.3C (moderate) and still was warming. So, it was more than likely headed to a strong. It has it centered on 115W:

NWS Forecast highs

Forecast. Not last weeks talk, nor banter lol

Official recent forecasts? not talking last week's general discussions or thoughts on here, nor was kev. Not a single outlet had 50's that I saw

A milder pattern is now in place. The remainder of the week will see generally above normal temperatures. Some rain is likely Saturday into Sunday. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.50"-1.00". The week will conclude with highs finishing in the 50s across much of the region on Friday and Saturday. Cooler air will likely return Sunday or Monday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January. Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +2.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.377 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.7° (at normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Euro still gets 50° up to the Pike Fri night. Would be funny if it maxes out at 5z and goes in the books as 2 days of 50°. edit…that was 12z…18z has a little better caa.

If we can touch 60F, we ride.

It's tough for me. I like a big storm but, if it's just one and no more I'm more inclined to several light events I guess. However, if it were a true big dog ( foot or more) then probably it.

There certainly was! It was fine to discuss the potential as long it was it was kept in the perspective of a long range modeling prediction, and not one that was a lock to happen. And yes, 40's, 50's and even a 60 degree highs were chatted about by many folks. Why deny it... It was discussed and now reality appears to be setting that the high end warming was way overdone... Just another reason to take long lead modeling outcomes with many grains of salt. Fun to chat about but taking it verbatim will often get you burned.

lucky you, theres been 2 here in the last 30 years, and i missed both of them. 2011 and 2013 were it for 18+ storms since 1996. 2003 PDII was close around 16-18", missed that one too i was in Italy for a class trip...so pissed.

Man, this La Niña event is definitely east based....no doubt about that. Hopefully we can parlay that into a Modoki El Niño next year.