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It’s been a miserable Fall for people who prefer warmer weather, that’s for sure. Seems like September got skipped this year and we went right into mid Fall. Latest gfs says December wants to continue that trend.

Look at the Canadian 0z, 12, 0z comparison in temps. Under 120 hrs with that kind of change is criminal

Beautiful ridge out west Pv is also way further south enhanced by the negative EPO. Gfs just gave 10 plus inches to NYC with overrunning.

And it is not just GFS...Canadian does the same...much colder

Figured I'd start the thread. While the Winter Solstice is still 4 weeks away, met winter starts in a week. Its been quiet since many of us saw out first snow and taste of winter November 9-10, but now wintry potential is showing up in multiple extended forecasts. So it's time!

Here comes the gfs lol

I mean...this one little detail south of Alaska is pretty massive! Whoops...

Gfs colder with the 12/3 threat than 18z. Gotta watch this one. A bit convoluted, but there's a cold High up north doing some dirty work.

The models have been bad for quite some time.

Negative? Not considering the Eps AI I posted and the 18z Gefs. The weeklies change so much and have been too warm this fall. The weeklies have such low skill because modeling skill at their range is poor, I honestly no longer put any stock in them. If other people wish to, that's up to them. If you noticed, even Don Sutherland includes more hedges on his analysis than an English garden. But like I said in my post, I think discussing modeling that has such poor skill is just the source of unnecessary angst. I'm not suggesting it should be stopped, it's just useless imho.

Good runs on both the gfs and gem

GFS has some light Turkey Day snow showers for Central VA on Thursday - odd looming outcome. Some flurries for parts of MD Saturday night as well.

If models are going to be this bad its going to be a long winter. Last 4 GFS runs for this weekend

GFS is a step in the right direction.

Your point is well taken, but would you agree that the general trend across modeling the last week or so has been negative from our point of view (eastern CONUS south of Lat 40)? I think it's fair to take note and discuss on this thread. I'd say Don Sutherland is about as close to an unemotional, impartial analyst as any on this board, so I tend to pay attention to what he says. I agree that there are some other posts which may be more emotional and less analytical, and perhaps would be better off in the Panic Room when that gets opened, but as as a guest in this forum I do not presume to make any judgements. On the flip side I do note the somewhat more positive outlook in 15 day of the EPS AI that you posted. I noticed during tropical season that the AI models were, at times at least, schooling the physics-based models, so hopefully that is the case here.

Yes, it should break eventually. Not sure about cycles though... I think humans have a tendency to see/hallucinate cycles from random variation. This one might be done, however. I suspect that February 2010 storm may have been our last best chance of breaking this one; however, despite over 20" of snow, it was split fairly evenly over two days, keeping the calendar day total under one foot. Definitely can see each period getting longer... records began in 1880, first streak ends in 1884, then 1890, then 1901, then 1902, then 1913, then a long break ending in 1942, then 1950, then 1960, then 1966, another long break ending in 1993 (Storm of the Century) and none thereafter. If it is the last calendar day with one foot of snow in Pittsburgh history, fitting for it to be the March 1993 Superstorm.

Slow smoked overly hickory 15 or so hours

Yeah this could be a sneakily impactful wind event given it's the day before Thanksgiving and all. Could affect both air and road travel.

So apparently some think EDC should be fired too...I'm sorry but I don't understand. He is not a bad GM!

I love it when MD tips off at midnight

The weeklies change every day! In 3 days they will be different and it will be a new concern. The fact is, the modeling just can't do what we want and hope for it to do. As I get older, it's clear that long range modeling must be viewed with an eye on seasonal trends, both in the actual weather and the model errors/biases. IOW, how have the models been doing with medium and long range forecasts of late and what is the general tenor of the weather. This year, modeling has general been too warm at longer ranges and it frankly hasn't been a toaster oven for the past few months. All this considered, advertised medium/long range warmups should be viewed skeptically until they start to prevail. Until then, don't worry about it at all. And on a related note, it maybe fine to dissect every medium and long range model run because it's what we do. But until the mr/lr modeling can prove they are worth anything by being accurate and do so with day-to-day consistency, they cause more useless angst than they're worth imho and making forecasts off them with any certainty as I see being made are folly. Enjoy the cold Thanksgiving holiday weekend (another sign of the coming winter flavor) and forget about December's weather until December! Rant over.

If we get the warm pattern beyond the 10th it could very well entrench itself for the remainder of the season.

The cold will be lurking in Canada by next week just need a SW to come in under SNE but definitely cutter potential moving through first week of December. I think the interior has a shot at some frozen accumulation but we are talking out beyond day 7 or 8. Honestly, I would take a warm cutter over 1"-2" of slop turning to rain, this early in the season.

Like you, I see the typical biases in that thread as well. I have engaged them way back in the Eastern Weather days and unfortunately I believe there are some agendas at play. You guys always have great discussions in your Sub Forum and I follow y'all closely!