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18th isnt done yet. 16th is.

Undershot guidance a little and bottomed out at 25.2 this morning. Felt good to feel winter again after waking up to 60s past two days

It's hard to believe that they are so horrible on offense. Having a top receiver in AJ and a top running back in Barkley and can't do squat. And the play calling is just horrible. So damn vanilla. Lane may retire or in a year or so. Howie likes drafting offensive lineman so that's probably on his list. Overall, a real drag of a season. It seemed like they could never get their shit together...

And we are staying in Wears Valley this weekend .

What has happened to the weather has been really ironic, since I moved to Knoxville from the Cleveland Area around 2006. I was very excited because I love snow, so I assumed I would get much more snow than I did when I lived in Cleveland. That has turned out to be very untrue. Since moving to Knoxville, Cleveland has managed to get about the same amount or even more snowfall, and it just so happens that the area that I moved to in Knoxville never scores any snow from northern terrain generated events. It has become so frustrating that I have found myself just wanting warm weather so I can get out on the river and fish. For me, this is pretty significant because as a kid a snowfall always seemed like such a magical thing that it carried over into my adulthood.

The problem I have is, there's ALWAYS lots of chances, then slowly as we close in on the dates..... *poof*. This is true with 90% of all the models. I'd rather they show nothing and then hone in on an idea 5-7 days out, a LOT less exhausting. Maybe I (we) need to just watch the first 1/4-1/2 of the model runs and go from there.

You keep waiting on that cold. This is a warm January that no one on this board wanted to see. We are not waiting for a brief warm up to end. We are in a warm month waiting for a brief cool down. And that is a big difference in expectations

Tried to tell them to wait until today. And I’m not talking about the bullshit superstition thing, I meant because the models were janky with every single run. It’s fine, it could come back!

We are in the grieving phase. Damn you GFS!

Two weeks before the 93’ blizzard, an F3 tracked through Oak Ridge, Powell, to Halls. Strongest tornado on record for Knox Co. .

Lmao did this storm thread even survive one model run?

CLE only reported 1.3" yesterday. Seems like that area specifically always comes in with the lowest totals. Looking at the PNS reports areas right around there reported more.

Picked up 0.5" on the back end last night. We'll see what friday brings.

Looks like we are going to hit phase 8 again. So much for getting stuck in phases 4,5,6 due to the warm pool in the western pacific. Reasons to be optimistic: Warm pool causing repeated 4,5,6 seams to have stopped. Clippers being extinct no longer the case. SE ridge always linking with the MJO not always occurring. SE ridge being an unstoppable force is no longer the case. Next up - fast flow.

6z GEFS suggests 1-2" for a good chunk of the area for "my" storm.

Most winters have a January thaw. This mild pattern will be 10 to 15 days. Colder than average starting the 18th.

They stopped the chemtrails.

Watch the magic act continue to unfold...the incredible disappearing RNA...vanishing right before our eyes faster than a medium range SNE snow-threat.

Everything looks awesome in the 10-15 day range. No trouble there. It's getting that look inside day 5 that's the issue. Give it till the end of the month then it's punting time.

It appears to be more than a NE region issue interesting

@qg_omegaHave you been keeping track of this? Flip back to RNA started out at 1/15 as of the 1/2run, now it's 1/20 and sliding....

Looks mild and dry as far as the I can see. The threat for the 16th is over, and with that, the threat for the 18th is over. So now we will look beyond the third week of the month for any semblance of wintry weather across the US (aside from the Great Lakes in northern New England, which continues to clean up very nicely). Looks quite cold in the long range with the cold air, returning in a few days across much of the eastern, central, south US. Normally that would accompany increased chances for wintry weather, but we’ve seen how that doesn’t always play out. This has been one of the most mild starts to a January across the US that I can remember. Even in the 2023 winter and the 2024 winter, while they were in good for the vast majority of us, there was an active train of storms across the west and central US. Similar to January 2020 which was also quite mild and not snowy for the vast majority of us still had an active train of storms across the northern tier. This January has none of the above and looking into the foreseeable future, remains as dry as it has been. Remarkable

Kidding aside…that ULL moves right overhead now Thu night. There will probably be some accumulating light snows up here. You still can’t rule out this thing blowing up for E ME if we start getting some pressure falls in the GOM. But yeah, it’s only 1/12. The elephant in the room is that continues up here.

Cant be too discouraged with this mornings gfs run. Plenty of chances are coming over the next couple of weeks.

"Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, January 9th. In a panic, the weenies try to pull the plug."