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Lol Tip I am a proud graduate 1993 The University of RI Environmental Science degree College of Resource Development. The blue collar tag just says it all. My work is done here.

Wut

.22

Some very impressive storms last night and this morning.

what a day. i find it rather unsettling that people that appreciate the weather can't seem to understand that we are impacting it there is a debate to be had as to how we are impacting the weather directly, aside from a direct increase in overall temperature, and I think that the debate in that regard is needed and is healthy. for example, debating how the increased warming will impact nor'easter potential is worth the time, and the perspectives on that topic are appreciated however, totally denying the impact that we have had is complete BS. that stems from denial or political affiliation (which is honestly even worse than straight up denial) sorry to mods if this needs to be cleaned up btw

Yes it was (and to have that on a snow fat was even better!) That was absolutely insane--remember when we all thought Marlon Brown was gonna be a breakout after that? Lol But that was the craziest 2 mins of all time! And the memory is even sweeter knowing that snow kicked off an epic wall-to-wall winter

Completely. It’s not snowing in Oklahoma or Texas.

P&C is up to ~2” here for whatever that’s worth. Expectations low for anything that meaningful given source. But pretty good shot at first snowfall/measurable snowfall, which is exciting itself.

Just landed in Wilmington this afternoon and it felt absolutely incredible the rest of the day. It hit 72 and I immediately threw off my sweatshirt and pants and went right back to late summer mode. Wouldn’t mind staying a couple solid weeks in this weather but I’m just paying a quick visit to some extended family atm. Apparently there’s a big frog infestation in the area I’m in which is hard to fathom after days of struggling to make it out of the 40s back home lol.

The angle of the moderate rain around DC I want to see in a month when it’s 25.

The old penalty structure was probably too harsh and would tend to inhibit people from posting relatively not-so-late forecasts, but having absolutely no late penalties is not that good either long-term, I will give it some thought for 2026 if we keep going, and have late penalties that make sense. Other contests that I am involved with have much more routine late penalties that are applied automatically (whether by me or some other person running a contest). The turnout for those is larger, which tends to mean that the contest organizer(s) are not as wary of annoying people with late penalties. I think as a scientific question, there is usually no more skill shown on 2nd or 3rd than there is on 1st or day before that. The late penalty concept for a monthly forecast contest is mostly to encourage on-time entries so everyone feels equally likely to do well and also so the organizer can get the table of forecasts done and move on to their normal routines. Sooner or later somebody is going to crush that 810 barrier, this could be the month, never know.

Hopefully the Canadian will be right. 3k looks rather paltry.

Any terrain has gotten plastered over the past week. Anything above 1500ft is very white. The river valleys are not white. It’s that time of year.

Glad you guys are okay!

Same! Greatest game I’ve ever been to. I might still be recovering

46/43. Solidly in the warm-sector after one of the coldest mornings. Life comes at you fast, all the sudden dew points in the 40s are noteworthy. It’s been awhile.

Someone had a premonition when they wrote the title of this thread...yikes. Coldest morning of the season today...got to 27.6. Looking forward to some wintery vibes but don't expect anything notable until 12/15 or later. The early model fantasies never seem to pan out.

Similar to yesterday meaning Wednesday’s run (mean dipped to only +7) remains the weakest: Wed. run:

30-day is the highest since December 2022! It had actually gone 31 straight months without passing +10, now it's up to +15. Between that, the Oct-Nov N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and now a -3c pocket developing in the ENSO subsurface.. you can make a case for a La Nina presence this Winter. I'm curious to see how it goes with the fact that 21 of the last 29 months have been +PNA (CPC), and what happens there going forward.

What did the EPS SPV forecast look like today?

I don’t think this is true. Now if they had a cold bias, that would be true.

I of course don’t post every day’s runs. But because I posted yesterday’s significantly colder week 4, I felt obligated to post today’s significantly warmer week 4 so as to not appear one-sided. Chuck’s guess that that was a top 15 percentile jump is as reasonable an educated guess as any. So, it was a “pretty big jump” as he said though nothing at all extreme, especially considering that’s still out at week 4. Consider how much colder it got for early next week on all models since that was during only week 2! So, considering all of this and the inherent unpredictability out a month, sig. jumps that far out on any long range ensemble are pretty common and shouldn’t ever be surprising.

Nice little rainstorm out there....

SOI....climbing

Currently 45 with a very loud thunderstorm and rain/graupel in Wolf. The 0z high res Canadian and 3km nam are looking good along the border for Sunday night and Monday. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk