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Pretty close calls on 18z GFS for 1/18 and 1/20. Gonna be some epic pond skating again by the 23rd.

Of course, why wouldn’t you. And just so you know, it ain’t all lollipops and unicorns. But I’m not gonna keep complaining bout something you can’t change. The cold hasn’t been a problem, getting something to run into has here. But whatever.

It'll trend north lol.

For what it’s worth, the Ukie has support from its ensemble and the ensemble gets more and more aggressive with each run. As @BornAgain13pointed out, the AIGFS run improved. Actually, it’s a substantial improvement and looks similar to the Ukie at h5. Good to see the Ukie not on a complete island. Let’s see if 0z can get any others to work that way.

Not really as it means more suppression and a higher electric bill.

I'm going to enjoy the remainder of our thaw. Bound to get colder.

This is the futility thread dude

I’ll fire up the futility watch thread if it is still in sight by 2/7 or so. That’s something to look forward to.

Wow...not even considering the surface, that's quite a change in the right direction at 500-mb! From a positively tilted trough to neutral, almost negative, and notably sharper. Not sure if it's occurring "too late", we'd probably need that farther west a tad, I would guess. Also, is that some hint of interaction with the closed center around northern Hudson Bay? Looks like "streamers" of vort coming down into the main trough of interest.

Or "Possible flurries" 🫤 "Wisdom comes with winters"

yup.. GFS trending closer at 18z and rapidly deepens to 944mb once it passes north of here into Canada. That's going to be big in my opinion

GFS has a bit of snow across the region for the so called Cape storm. Definite improvement in the upper levels though.

he stated this morning…doesn’t look cold, normal to slightly above, or below.

1/29/22 near cape May point, NJ About 14”. Hope HM is on to something. .

Probably should change this thread's title to something like 'interest has shifted to the 18th'

Fwiw , the 18z AIGFS trended better for Sunday.

Not the park, but central LI in some January's with "poor starts" (note that the 1.3" on 1/31 /21 was the start of a 17" snowfall):: J A N J A N J A N J A N Day 2005 2015 2016 2021 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 T 0.0 T 4 0.0 0.0 T T 5 0.2 0.0 T 0.0 6 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 8 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14 T T T 0.0 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 17 2.5 0.0 0.9 0.0 18 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 19 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 20 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 21 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 22 11.4 T T 0.0 23 3.0 0.0 17.0 0.0 24 T 4.0 0.5 0.0 25 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26 1.0 5.0 0.0 0.3 27 0.1 10.0 0.0 T 28 0.0 T T 0.0 29 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 31 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 Total thru 1/15 0.5 2.2 0.0 0.0 Total for January 21.9 22.0 18.4 1.8 Max Daily 11.4 10.0 17.0 1.3 Footnote: Snowfall here this month through January 12 is 1.1" (ahead of 2005, 2016, and 2021). I think that the big snowstorms spawned those months were all Miller B's, even 2016.

He's definitely going to be one of the main forces that keep this place high-quality and relevant, no doubt about that. Ji is just a troll. But I guess the argument could be made that he makes AmWX, well, AmWX.

Where's Red sky because red sky is going on? Damn it! Probably sleeping/napping! Redder than red out there...

AIGFS trending the right way for the CAPE storm

Between 10" and 11" at the stake. 28-year average is 10.30". Not crushing it but thoroughly average despite BN precip Dec and so far Jan. Average total snowfall thru Jan 12 is 31.9"; hard to be much more average than that.

Hopefully we can score nicely over the course of this week.

Ain't no way the gfs is that good! Lol

Last winter did get a lot of suppression but I'm still in the give me cold first camp. I have seen way too many winter storms that quickly turned into slop or rain.

The models continued to advertise a shorter duration event ending early pre-dawn Thursday morning. That said, I see a trend developing that we start as snow Wednesday afternoon with no mixing issues from the point when the front arrives. Another point is the higher ratios due to the very cold temperatures immediately behind the Arctic front.