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I thought you said this had an elevation aspect to it? You should do better than BDL if that’s true. Or are you thinking west is better now?

Winter Weather Advisories posted for western areas of the forum, specifically NW TN, and eastern Arkansas.

This.... Models are going to struggle with this aspect and the near isothermal layer between sfc-700mb is going to be tough to resolve and likely will be a nowcast situation. Heavier precip in the onset will help to mitigate the WAA regime within the PBL, so intensity will play a pretty big role in this for Central MD along and south of the area you mentioned. Areas up near the M/D with more elevation will likely stay snow longer, as is customary. This is a textbook case of climo likely being the hedge when it comes to the forecast.

Looks like a solid 2-4” out this way.

If the Euro is right, it looks like 50-75 miles south.

One last hurrah.

Before I forgot I wanted to upload some pictures I got of DC a couple days ago as a sendoff to November

Nam 3k much closer to the "snowier" models than the 12k fwiw.

I think I know how this goes. BDL will get 5-6” I’ll get a slushy mess and rain at 32.8. I can see it and am so irritated

GEFS NAO 2 days ago: Today: @snowman19 @donsutherland1

As I said earlier..torture yourself if you must. My call….you get 6”, I get 3-4” here. But maybe we both get white rain? That’s also a possibility.

0.32” from this rain event.

The differences between the Euro and GFS handling of the upper Midwest shortwave appear to be what’s causing the subtle track differences. GFS has 2 distinct areas of vorticity and the northern one remains stronger longer, while the Euro consolidates all this energy sooner and further south.. There is also a trailing piece of energy that is intensifying as it’s digging east and south that impacts the system as it exits the coast.

Given the near 0c temps up to 700mb. The guidance on the P-Type is going to be all over the place up until precip time. Things I would focus on now is just amount and timing of saturation. "Wintery Mix" between I-95 and US340/US15 is what I'd go with. Good news at this point the that the chance of a whiff or bust is pretty low.

Lots of time for this to shift.....don't sweat it yet. You might get more than I.

Nice try to pull more info out of Me. I think I would be surprised if you were skunked.

Here's to hoping that lake helps us this time

So basically there’s a fair chance we see nothing here . This is going end badly

WB 18Z RDPS also ticked north...

I think the MJO is correcting into colder phases with maybe a loop back into 7. The Euro/EPS/EMON has been decent of late in predicting the next plot. I suspect models and ensembles will continue to correct to a colder look. And man, do you all remember ColdRain on the old SE forum. This was his type of day IMBY. RealFeels at 40F w/ light drizzle falling. Scuzzy weather. I like it, but it isn't for everyone.

First time in 25 years I have no plowing to do besides my own driveway and shop yard! Can’t wait to throw a log on the fire and watch it snow

I feel like we beat this to a pulp enough already. You’re definitely close to the line. I’d feel most comfortable right now from about Worcester to say Salem New Hampshire on North and West. Didn’t say that on purpose for Ray, but he may be close to the line too. if the euro is right, maybe shift that south 25 miles or so.

Down to 34 with fog and drizzle in Wolf. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

This setup reminds me a bit of a hike I went on in the Catoctins last November around this time. Here is a link to the hike I went on which tried to maximize the amount of time I would stay at high elevation while reducing the amount of high elevation road I had to travel up. There's a very long stretch of +1500 feet and you get to start down at 800ft and hike up into it which was awesome. Let me know if you want more details and the link to the hike is here: https://www.alltrails.com/explore/recording/afternoon-hike-at-cat-rock-yellow-trail-to-catoctin-blue-trail-7b13b22?u=i&sh=vrjjqd

Have to get through Christmas and New Year's first.