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Yes, snow and cold are about the worst things that could happen IF there is widespread damage/power outages which certainly seems possible.

Monday doesn't seem overly impressive for winds...nothing out of the ordinary for these setups. Best bet would be getting a solid convective line to hold but looks like it falls apart quickly. 3km though does suggest there could be some embedded strong convection though.

You can see the huge temp gradient in Wisconsin as a result of the big snowstorm, though I wonder if it’s being overdone to an extent because it should melt relatively quickly.

I've occasionally done the 10 readings for individual storms but doing it for pack depth in a place like Maine with snow atop snow would resemble the physicist's uncertainty principle - all that tromping thru the snow affecting the depth. I place the stake at the same spot in our garden plot and stay away from it, to avoid that affecting. I suppose if one could separate the 10 spots by 50+ feet and avoid old tracks during the next measurement . . . Too complicated for me. Pack grew to 13" this morning, back to 11 now.

I was just going to post that the 12z Gfs had this. Surprised the Nam has it too.

That’ll be bad for the crews who will be out trying restore power, cutting up fallen trees, helping those with roof damage and all

New hi-res NAM expectedly cutting back on the double digit totals from 12z for NW IL

The disco is very bullish and if they mention it they likely go that way.

lol, no.

Ground is dusted, snow getting steadier. Here we go!

no.

https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2032850219423916255

@Stormchaserchuck1 do El Nino's normally form east-based and propogate west? Or this is just me on weenie hopium?

Yeah, it’s been almost as bad as last winter for N Illinois. Chicago barely saw an inch of snow in February, kind of pathetic tbh.

I just looked at the 12z guidance and timing really couldn’t be better for our area but especially for Lancaster and Lehigh valley I think we see the wind probs expanded NE next update. One of the better looking march severe threats I can remember and yes totally agree discrete supercells are not out of the picture. Also I think some places will end as snow as well. Monday afternoon and evening should be exciting. Gear up the generators especially with the wet conditions of late. edit: holy shit at the euro… it argues for a discrete threat ahead of the qlcs in the early afternoon. Ominous look.

From rushing water to pond ice to powder back to water all in a few days.

Kind of ripping under this mini band.

Does Chicago get more snow from this WAA snow than the actual storm? That's the big question lmao

Those tracks become riverbeds Monday night?

The Severe threat for Monday continues to increase for sure.

18z NAM likes the idea of back end snow Monday evening.

Yeah…outside of the lake effect areas, people don’t realize how bad of a winter this has been. Rockford has only had 6.9” of snow since 12/8, with a max 2” of snow cover…and bare ground during the entire month of February. I know many of us had two decent storms prior to 12/8, but all of that snow melted by 12/15 or even sooner. I don’t care what the total snowfall is compared to climo. It’s a horrible way to gauge the quality of a winter. It has been a horrible winter in northern IL and southern WI. I wish people would just acknowledge that. I just feel like people focus on total snowfall relative to average, not even realizing that our normals are pathetic to begin with, plus two seasons with the exact same snow totals could have completely different characters. It’s not only ok for people to have high standards, but it should be encouraged…just like anything in life. Having a white Christmas would have helped, and I thought it was a lock after having 10” on the ground on 12/5 and entering into the shortest days and lowest sun angle of the year. And a big dog with the current storm would have helped too, although it would melt quickly due to the time of year. But both of these failed by a wide margin. No white Christmas knocks the grade down by two letters all by itself. Plus the endless annoying dustings which would have been great if there were a good snowpack (but instead, you end up noticing the sublimation even when it managed to stay cold for awhile), and the new obnoxious problem in early December when the snow melted from below since it was so early in the season. It’s as though everything goes against snow retention around here. To me, snow retention is the most defining aspect of winter. The only thing good about this winter was the cold outbreak in mid-late January, especially because we thankfully maintained a bit of snow cover IMBY during the cold (but not on the roads or more congested areas, which is an entirely different issue). I know people grade winters differently. I like to communicate things by considering the extreme outcomes of a situation, because it adds context. This is what I mean - some people might argue that our area has 6 months of winter, since it can snow during November-April. That’s technically true, but to me that’s dumb. Just because it can snow during April, it doesn’t mean it’s a wintry month. That approach is a 1 on the “degree of difficulty/level of standards” scale for grading a winter, if you use a 1-10 scale. Some may say winter means an average high temp in the 30s or colder. To me, that’s way too generous, and it would get a 2 on the aforementioned scale. If every day were in the 30s or colder, that would be different. But average highs in the 30s aren’t wintry, because a significant number of days in the 40s and 50s can still occur, which is unacceptable. On the other extreme, someone else could argue that we don’t have any winter in this area at all, because there is no calendar period during which you can guarantee that it will look and feel like winter outside (meaning cold temps with meaningful snow cover). While late January has the best probability of this occurring, there are some years with warm temps and bare ground at that time of year. That approach would get a 10 on the aforementioned scale. Even I wouldn’t go that extreme, but my approach is probably an 8. This is because, in many (but not all) winters, you can count on 20-40 days (not necessarily consecutive) when it’s cold with meaningful snow cover (say 3”+ so there are no annoying bare spots). In other words, I would say we have about one month of winter. I may be a tough grader, but that’s how it should be when you care about something. An 8 out of 10, not a crazy outlier. I’m only pointing this out because, especially on a weather forum like this, it would be more fun and there would be better camaraderie if we all fell in the 7-10 range on this scale. But I think most of this forum falls into the 2-4 range on the scale…which I think is unfortunate. Just like your favorite sports team, I like having high standards for winter, whether or not it’s logical. Miami gets an F every winter, even with this year’s record cold (30s) for them. It doesn’t matter what a place’s climo is. I know that I anthromoporphize winter. But when a person cares about something and has a deep emotional connection to it, that’s what happens. I guess the alternative is to not get excited about anything at all, but what fun is that? I know this post is OT, but missing out on the current storm was the last straw, plus I’m not able to chase it due to other priorities. Anyway, I hope the good folks up north post a lot of pictures.

12z ECMWF has Phoenix hitting 104-104 March 20-21. 12z EPS is 103-102

Nice explanation by MPX on pulling the trigger for a blizzard warning. So the Blizzard Warning... There is high confidence given the snow totals and strength of winds that blizzard conditions will be observed in our traditional "blizzard alley" from west central to south central MN, especially late Sunday morning into Sunday night. For eastern Minnesota into western WI, blizzard purists may argue that we don`t hit blizzard conditions of a 1/2 mile or less visibility with wind gusts of 35 mph or more for 3 or more consecutive hours. This is because the strongest winds will be lagging the heaviest snow and eastern MN and western WI really need the heavy falling snow to achieve the visibility requirements of a Blizzard Warning. However, we are looking at historic snowfall amounts for a March storm (see climate section), with travel expected to be crippled across our entire area tonight into Sunday night. In addition, when the common citizen looks out the window Sunday morning (ie. not the blizzard purist!), they`ll likely say, yup, this is one heck of a blizzard. Given the expected high to extreme impacts, we felt comfortable in pulling the biggest winter messaging lever we have, the Blizzard Warning. Simply put, travel is expected to be very dangerous on Sunday and the best way to get the message across on just how severe this winter storm will be is to go with Blizzard Warning.

Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. A storm will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region Sunday night and Monday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs. Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. The major weather story next week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +10.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.305 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.