All Activity

My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html

@Stormchaserchuck1What did you say the SD of your formula is? .30? 70% of getting .30 within the outcome? @bluewaveDo you know where that post is that you made comparing past seasonal forecasts to reality? TIA.

Sioux City ASOS site hit 83 degree dewpoint earlier this evening, and hit 119 for heat index. Tremendous pool of 80+ degree dews from southwest MN down into northeastern KS.

That threat will move 300 miles north or west of us by then. Mark my words. Nobody can convince me otherwise

Possibly. However we know what would happen in the playoffs with him so it wouldn't really matter, lol

I found some of my old research and updated it for the last few years (2021-2025). It looks like the formulas still work for predicting precipitation locally in El Nino / La Nina seasonally, and even month by month. El Nino DJF precip locally can be predicted at very high confidence (90%, within 0.8" of output, 75% odds of within 0.59") using the Sept high, Nov precipitation, and wet days in July-Sept (+1/2 of wet Jun days). Formula is: =(B13*-0.04239*B13)-(0.30999*B13*C13)-(0.018527*B13*D13)+(0.01853*C13*C13)-(0.2244*C13*D13)+(0.00347*D13*D13)+(7.277*B13)+(28.465*C13)+(1.6066*D13)-(311.76) Where B is Sept high, C is Nov precip, D is Wet days. DJF highs in El Ninos locally tend to match DJF ONI, July-Jun annual sunspots, and DJF ONIp, within ~2.3F or so 90% of years. Here is 2023-24 as an example: I never was able to find an El Nino at that solar level / trajectory - 129.6 in the rising part of the cycle. The peak was 149.2 for 2024-25 (Jul-Jun). This is the only El Nino since 1931 one year from rising to the peak. 1957, 1968, 1979 are at the peak, not before. Dec El ONI Sun ONIp DJF Tmax 1939 1.0 125.9 -1.0 49.8 1957 1.8 281.6 -0.2 50.5 1972 1.8 75.4 -0.7 45.2 1982 2.2 129.2 -0.1 47.9 1994 1.0 36.9 0.1 54.4 Blend 1.6 129.8 -0.4 49.6 2023 1.9 129.6 -0.5 51.4 For 2026-27, there is probably no real way to use my method given what is forecast (ONI at +3.0C to +3.5C in DJF). But you can use solar (60-80?) and ONIp as anchors. Dec El ONI Sun ONIp DJF Tmax 1965 1.4 37.1 -0.6 44.4 1972 1.8 75.4 -0.7 45.2 1982 2.2 129.2 -0.1 47.9 1997 2.2 54.9 -0.5 47.1 2015 2.5 55.8 0.6 51.4 2023 1.9 129.6 -0.5 51.4 Blend 2.0 80.3 -0.3 47.9 2026 3.1 75 -0.4 47 Solar was 106.2 sunspots/month from July 2025-June 2026, and declining. Similar initial positions/trends (roughly: 86-126) were 1939-40 (126), 1950-51 (103), 1960-61 (117), 1971-72 (101), 1982-83 (129), 1992-93 (103), 2002-03 (131), 2014-15 (91). The following years imply ~72 sunspots/month for July 2026-Jun 2027. If you use just the solar cycle positioning/tendency, you can see 1950-51 and 2002-03 as a blend is very similar to last year for temps -

Os walk off. Need more of that shit.

These patterns deliver particularly photogenic mcs over the lake

Mighty neighborly. I hope your fancy fruits shrivel on the tree.

@TheDreamTraveler I was reading back over posts from the other day and noticed that I made a typo. Shortly after you posted about setting a record low, I posted a comment that said "New records are broken here and not very impressive ". I use a voice app that doesn't always copy my voice properly and sometimes I miss my mistakes.. What I wanted to say was "No new records we're broken here and not very impressive". I was actually referring to the comet thatI made about stretching and making fun of myself.., however I now realize it may not have came across as such.

.32 for the day here, most if came in the morning hours. Then a cloudy cool day. Felt nice walking into the garage and now walk into a furnace blast for a change. Was a good few weeks period here for rainfall. High for the day got to 72.8 at 17:59.

consume less electricity

Point had us up to 94 today, low stratus hung around a lot longer than expected and we briefly topped out at 86.

Absolutely agreed with this....the warmth in 1.2 renders it a moot point in terms of the seasonal mean, however the warmth in the rest leave the door open for some volatility IMHO. Regardless, it will be warm overall.

I would put SNE underwater with a foot of rain in a second if it meant I could get 1" up here.

August DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5

60s at 9pm on July 25th. I'll take it

And fuck this assclown!

Drought monitors should be …. I don’t need 8 inches of rain in one week to make up for 8 months worth of 1 inch deficits!

Well, I guess if the models always predict 5 to 10 one of these times, they’ll nail it

You can tell who actually has to deal with the weather here. The posters that work outside, vs the the ones hiding in climate control wish casting for anything the general public finds uncomfortable.

Same dipsticks that predicted a heat wave for the end of the month.

Who was it here that forecasted stein?

I'll still take the Euro over the GFS.

2 days in a row where NYC was warmer than EWR, south-east wind