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In Gardiner where we lived during 95-96, DEC thru APR, first parts of months were super, last parts were awful. Snowiest by 30"+ of 13 winters there but only 5th place for SDDs. temp precip snow First parts: 81 days -6.4 11.56" 127.2" Last parts: 71 days +4.8 14.58 9.2"

I guess I'm talking about the incessant cliff jumping over what models show over 2 weeks out. I wish they would stop going out that far. Or I wish people would stop looking. Or that they would fucking learn it's not final. If I get frustrated I don't have snow I just don't post.

Ray, Feb 1956 and Feb 1972 were good and both La Nina...'56 was a strong Nina. I'm stil trying to find a similar pattern as to the one being forecasted by ensembles....I agree Feb 2014 is prob the closest but that had the lower heights biased further west....more of a -PNA than is currently being progged. Late Jan/early Feb 2013 is another somewhat similar pattern too.

@MarkO has a place up that way I think.

I rest my case.

They were coming to mby

I saw a flock of geese flying north.

Here’s a link to the last video from Michael Clark, done on 12/30 in which he was highly confident and even smug: From this 12/30 video, he posted a forecast map for 12/31-1/15 showing most of the E US (Minneapolis to SL to ATL eastward) BN. Instead it is headed toward solidly AN. I project Chicago, ATL, and RDU will end up ~+5 to +6 for 12/31-1/15. He forecasted Chic at -3 to -4 and ATL/RDU at -1 to -2. BAM is headed toward a miss of -6 to -9 for 12/31-1/15 in a good portion of the E US! @donsutherland1

Great discussion in here this afternoon. I enjoyed reading all of that - even if it isn't all snow!

How much snow did you get this afternoon?

Here is the local data that I looked at: Smithtown NESIS Outcomes by season Winter Total Seasonal Snowfall # of NESIS storms Snowfall from NESIS events Net Snowfall excluding NESIS 1995-1996 94.9 1 22.3 72.6 1996-1997 17.3 1 3.0 14.3 1997-1998 4.3 0 0.0 4.3 1998-1999 25.6 0 0.0 25.6 1999-2000 16.3 1 5.3 11.0 2000-2001 50.0 2 15.0 35.0 2001-2002 7.3 0 0.0 7.3 2002-2003 62.5 4 33.5 29.0 2003-2004 56.2 2 18.4 37.8 2004-2005 62.9 2 21.6 41.3 2005-2006 24.2 1 13.3 10.9 2006-2007 11.7 2 6.1 5.6 2007-2008 14.0 0 0.0 14.0 2008-2009 38.2 3 21.9 16.3 2009-2010 60.1 5 43.6 16.5 2010-2011 60.8 4 43.1 17.7 2011-2012 4.5 1 0.0 4.5 2012-2013 46.0 2 33.9 12.1 2013-2014 68.0 6 47.1 20.9 2014-2015 67.0 7 35.7 31.3 2015-2016 38.2 1 17.5 20.7 2016-2017 41.6 3 26.0 15.6 2017-2018 65.1 5 39.8 25.3 2018-2019 21.7 2 4.8 16.9 2019-2020 9.4 0 0.0 9.4 2020-2021 41.9 2 23.3 18.6 2021-2022 36.2 3 25.5 10.7 2022-2023 8.6 2 0.0 8.6 For this period, our average annual snowfall was 37.7", of which 17.9" (47.5%) fell during NESIS ranked storms.

The interesting thing about La Nina...there are a few analogs which aren't dry during winter. I think @John1122 has posted those thoughts prior. In fact, they can produce flooding rains at times. I don't think we are out of La Nina quite yet. That said...there was worry about Canada losing its cold. The 12z Euro(yes, it is at the end of its run, but has support from its ensemble and across some other models) had this at the end of its run. Let's see if the 12z CFSv2 can get on a run. If flipped cold for Jan 21-31. I probably is a blip, but the image below kind of fits where I think we are going. The coldest air is going to push into the Canadian Prairie and refuse to budge. I am sure the West will get its fair share...but one good cutter, and any warm-up would go poof! This also fits exactly what LC's analogs have shown for late winter. Can you imagine what the Lower 48 would look like w/ a strong amplification in either of the blocking areas would produce? The SER will fight, but w/ that air mass as a plausible option...we may need a little SER.

Wouldnt Box pick up the precip in my area better..? It was showing on alb and NYC radars but not box

Way ahead of me - only the left knee last June (may your 2nd knee be as easy as my 1st) and neck fusion in 2011. Other surgeries - prostate, and ablation for A-fib - didn't require leaving any hardware.

Cut out all processed sugar as much as retentively possible. I mean you gotta go at it with remorseless vengeance and assume with distrust in your heart that whatever, where ever, and why, are all conspiring to sneak it past your attention. Everything about food stock provided by the "Industrial Food Complex" since the early part of last century is reconstructing sugar molecules. Stay on the outside of the grocery store perimeters. Only by raw and cook your own. NO EXCEPTIONS! Go Allulose and Stevia extract ( organic sources), about 96/4 mixtures if you have to have sweet. A teaspoon of honey is probably okay ( but that doesn't mean 20 of them either). The former tastes exactly like the toxicity with 0 toxicity. You won't know the difference and it has zero glycemic index. Sugar beyond the biological evolutionary signal ( an amount that is shockingly lower than people are aware) is connected to 90% of all inflammatory responses in physiology, and just about all systemic problems traditionally associated to 'just aging' are in fact connected to different degrees of inflammatory response. What's actually aging is the body's ability to resist the toxins of access sugar. Easily fix.. Gout and other forms of arthritic flares, to hypertension to pre Diabetes and eventually arteriosclerosis and cancers ... all can be traced back to inflammation. You'll lose weight. Your cholesterol will plummet ( particularly the tri-glics and ultra LDLs). You'll notice a reduction in frequency and intensity of maintenance areas of the body. Hell, you might even recover some

Some examples:

Just a 2 inch event across the board will be enough to not add to any of them this year.

2 years ago today. The other big storm that season. A lot of the areas that jackpotted here missed out on the Feb 13th, 2024 snowstorm. A pretty insane gradient S to N with coastal SECT getting less than 1" to upwards of 17" in N Granby. Just got done re-doing this entire storm from scratch for accuracy and to include Lower Northeast map w/ climo sites. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-6-7-2024 Contours Only

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/12-Jan-96.html

We had 2" here before the rain, but IIRC DC had all snow and another 8". Just unlucky at the end of a very good week.

BWI at 2" indeed not gonna add to this list of shame but not a robust start. DCA at 1.5" is almost clear of a top 5 dead-ratter. IAC at 2.1" though...should be safe obviously but still work to do.

The original KU list was a subjective list of major northeast storms that Kocin and Ucelliini found impactful and meteorologically interesting and subsequently published and then updated an excellent book on their research. Taking it to the next level they worked to quantity the list by devising a calculation to attempt an estimate of how many people were impacted and how severely they were impacted. This became NESIS which I understand is now described as a "regional index", whatever that means as it seems to cover 2/3 of the country. Here are some things that I think should be considered when using "K-U" events to make broader climate associations in the northeast: 1. There is no "KU track". Clippers that largely do not achieve warning level snows in our region can get elevated to KU status if a cold wind in their wake manages to bury the Chicago area (as well as western and central NY, etc.) in lake affect, adding millions of people to the calculation. Likewise, a storm that drops a few inches across the deep south and manages to get some routine snows up towards the northeast can get the designation. Benchmark tracks feature in most of the biggest snowfalls in our area, but they are not common to all KU events. 2. Pretty much every significant snowfall (and some fairly insignificant ones) this century gets a NESIS rating (i.e., is a "KU"). Nearly every year has a KU; between the 1999-2000 and 2022-23 winter seasons there were only 4 winters out of 24 without a KU (2001-2, 2007-8, 2011-12, and 2019-20). The odds of a snowy winter having a KU are high because the odds of any winter having a KU are high. Prior to this century, storms were not evaluated in the same way. 3. Many of the NESIS cases had limited impacts on the northeast, others had major impacts limited to the northern tier of states from the upper Midwest to Maine, but little impact south of there. Still others were mostly notable from the gulf coast through the mid-Atlantic. In short, they are all different, with different evolutions, effect different areas, have variations in the long wave patterns, and individual KUs often represent an aggregation of the effects of multiple shortwaves with varying reflections at the surface. The breadth of these events is not the same as what Kocin and Ucellini originally focused on. 4. I looked at 30 years of snowfall data from my own site since I had easy access and I trust the data. 8 of those years had snowfall of between 25 and 72 inches exclusive of snow that fell during KU events. The list would be even longer if we assume that there would have been some snowfall even if the KU events not occurred (i.e., there may still have been smaller or less widespread snowfalls during the same time periods). In other words, "zeroing out" KU totals from the record is probably not realistic. Of course there is no way to quantify what that might have been.

I was just in Dayton, thought they were in the band, but they only had an inch. They had 4-5 on the ground though.