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First measurable in 11 days here (a whopping 0.03") fell just before midnight. High was 85.0, not near the record of 90 (and that is the earliest 90 here) from 2002.

Ehhh, this may be a bit too snarky. I'm just confused as to why OHX didn't issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch last night. We had plenty of warnings west of town last night and threes/power lines down throughout Dickson County (among others). A watch should have been set based on ground truth coming out of Kentucky.

Yeah. Tomorrow looks pretty nice as well. Even Upton says it short lived. "The cooler regime appears short-lived, with gradual moderation returning conditions to above normal by midweek."

Not looking forward to those temps, I thought with those upcoming temps that would be in your wheelhouse, and maybe you'd post a snow map

See new posts Your Home Timeline Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · 38s Sunday Snow? As colder air rushes in on Sunday, rain may mix with or change to wet snow across the Litchfield Hills. Farther north, a steadier period of snow is expected. Even in Vermont and New Hampshire, significant accumulation is not expected.

Ironically, I am right by that .8. Talk about the screw zone! Local mets saying to get out of the drought conditions we would need around 20 to 25 inches of rain the next couple of months. I'd be shocked if we get that much rain in the next year.

Can really see how things start to diverge in terms of position of the warmest SSTa’s after December. With Nino 1+2 warmth (east-based), Jan and Feb are also warm. With Nino 3.4, the correlation starts to break in Feb. With Nino 4 (central to west pacific), it actually correlated to a cold Feb. So while December is universally expected to be mild regardless, whether we get a backloaded winter or near wall to wall torch is based on whether the anomalies are focused on the Eastern Pacific vs Central.

would you happen to have a report there for March 13-15, 2023 long duration elevation snowstorm? @snywx as well

Wed- Friday look nice . NW flow days with warmish afternoons . Looks fine really after Tuesday morning

IPAs?

I never plant up here until Mother’s Day.

Rumble just now. That’s a wrap for convective season.

We are seeing elements of the spring 2023 pattern with how early and strongly this El Niño is developing. That year had a shift to stronger blocking in late April following early record 90 warmth. Notice the 2 matching dates from 2023 and how close in time the record warmth was. So it’s possible that this week will turn out to be the warmest we see for a while. But rainfall has been generally disappointing. Maybe the developing STJ can allow for some better rainfall opportunities especially by the early summer like we saw in 2023. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1893-05-01 through 2026-04-16DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 4/13 92 in 2023 86 in 1977 84 in 2018+ 4/14 93 in 2023 89 in 2026 88 in 2022+ 4/15 91 in 2026 88 in 1960 87 in 1941 4/16 92 in 2002 90 in 2026 89 in 1896

Looks like 60’s to near 70 middle/ end of next week

s tier lake fog last 12 hours one of my fav times of year

If the trough is east of us, probably not much which isn’t good either since many of us are back in a drought.

friday evening mood remnants, nothing wrong with that

I am curious to see how much rain we actually get vs just low clouds and onshore flow.

Yes, we have had numerous 90°+ events in the Northeast during developing El Niños in April. But the 500mb forecast most closely matches 2023 with a shift to strong blocking. Makes sense since this one is coupling with the atmosphere and is much stronger early on like 2023.

Got about a tenth inch of rainfall overnight to settle everything down. Was very foggy with a temp of 50 degrees this morning.

Thank you CC!

We’re done for the season

650 days until NYC sees greater than 1”

Meh