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@WxUSAFdid gfs receive an upgrade? It usually sucks at cad. Normally it’d be ramming the primary up into Erie PA by now.

that would match my snowmap

That was a pretty sweet 18z GFS. Better timed phasing and that's why you want to see the coastal take off sooner and not later. It shows what's possible if that can happen. That's all that run really said to me. But at least there's still hints of that happening on any guidance too though. Let's see what the euro's got at 18z.

UK at 54.

By the way that's entering the medium range soon. Crazy how loaded this pattern is.

The NWS graphic with ice total posted above is from their automated site. A similar one was posted last night. Be careful with that. .

This would be rare. No one on the forum gets screwed. That's why it won't happen as depicted here. Would love it if it did though.

For your wish to come true, Euro needs to drop primary quicker.

So do I but damn it do I want to see the GFS get a win here. Just would be so interesting (and on brand) to have it slow down and separate the baja energy a little more each run for it to just wildly swing towards the Euro's depiction all of a sudden within 60 hours.

Lol if anything it’s moving farther from the other model consensus. Will it fold in one dramatic shift? Or will all other guidance bow to its superior predictions!??!?!

I still think elevation is on your side.

The most gorgeous pink skies out rn..nature's heads up!!. It's def coming guys.

Just one more lap, GFS! You can do it!!! So is this a headfake of a headfake...kind of like a double reverse. If it flips back north, this is like a double reverse w/ a halfback pass???

Maybe we do get a compromise, which would still be nice. The floor for this one looks to be 6 inches plus sleet which is a high floor.

That's pretty reserved for DT and looks in line. I hate his start time though.

The gfs is may blow chunks on this storm, but its gonna make up for it by nailing the 2/1 colossal east coast blizzard.

Wouldn't it be awesome if the GFS was the model that was right... I mean it's been very consistent the last bunch of runs.. just sayin

Inflow scarecrow! Ha ha ha ha ha!

Yeah if it doesn't cave tonight and other models don't start caving to it, then the GFS is in even worse shape than ever, lol

With most of the 18z guidance now in, I have no changes from my thinking following the 12z model cycle. In general, the New York City area remains in line for its biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years. Moreover, the storm will likely reach at least Category 3 on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS). Further, this could become the first storm since the January 22-24, 2016 blizzard to bring 6" or more snow to all of the following cities: Boston, Baltimore, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. it appears that a good initial estimate for storm total snow and sleet in New York City and nearby areas will fall in the 6"-12" range. Areas to the south and east of New York City and its nearby suburbs could see 4"-8" amounts. Pockets of 12"-18" amounts are possible well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, Orange County, Dutchess County, and Sussex County. A reasonable floor for New York City is 5". A reasonable ceiling is 14". There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning mid-level and surface storm evolution and tracks, and a potential primary-secondary storm handoff. Model skill will improve markedly overnight and tomorrow. At that time, there should be convergence toward a consensus among the models. Estimates could be revised based on the subsequent guidance, as needed.

Well I only checked because it screamed robot to my human brain. I don’t do that to everyone’s posts (though maybe I should)

Yea, same here. He is.

Wed morning

Wait, people are complaining about this run?!!? Jesus. I pray it happens. I'm just being realistic. GFS usually is a follower, not a leader.

Why is it increasing?