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It would be like spring for you, but different!

Garbage can tops? Zilch here, not even a trace on the board.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast. Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z. There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA. Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Oh okay then

LWX already talking it up for Monday (this morning AFD) KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front will arrive Monday, bringing strong winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms. A strong cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across the western Great Lakes will cross the area Monday. Better moisture recovery is expected ahead of this front compared to the one tonight which will result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Given favorable wind speeds aloft and modest instability for mid-March, there is a noteworthy threat for severe weather. The storm mode looks mostly linear this time with a QLCS of sorts favored in nearly all extended guidance. While the kinematics look a lot stronger with this next system, there is still a high degree of uncertainty with the thermodynamic environment and the exact timing of the frontal passage with recent trends showing an earlier frontal passage prior to peak diurnal heating. SPC has a 15% contour on Day 4, which is not super common in the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous AI and ML guidance continue to paint a moderate to high end ceiling for damaging winds with this frontal passage on Monday as well. Regardless of severe weather, strong winds will accompany this front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment

Waiting on a reply from my new dog sitter. I'm looking at hotels up around the Rhinelander area. GFS puking out 60 inches lmao. Most snow I ever experienced was in March just outside of Denver in 2014. 26inches in 24hrs. I'm 50/50 just to go see this insanity lmao.

I’m debating going to the big lake to watch the waves.

Once again this will be a major storm for the UP. Those poor Yoopers had green grass this time last year. Guess mother nature is making up for it in a big way.

I got .2 on some surfaces.

Was fun to track one last major storm. But alas, I have been beat to hell again. 75 mile difference between huge snowfall versus all rain. Being on warm weather. I’m over this shit.

High winds have begun… RFD G60MPH.

3.4" at midnight so far for me. Not really a blizzard yet. Unless the wind kicks up a couple notches, this is just a good ol fashioned winter stm.

Let it go, let it goCan't hold it back anymoreLet it go, let it goTurn away and slam the doorI don't care what they're going to sayLet the storm rage onThe cold never bothered me anyway Let it go, let it go…..

Imagine super Nino with blocking

High 76 low36. Precip 0.59”

Another death has been unfortunately found in a damaged home in Aroma Park from the Kankakee-area tornado.

super nino lfg...19 months to go?

Defintely If only the cutter didnt get strong. We all could of had a nice storm next week with the cold air in place.

Great. Though at this point, it's as likely to be a storm of lava as it is rain or snow. Maybe more likely.

Only 7 months to go..

From a pattern recognition/climo perspective, it's very difficult to get warning level snowfall into the heart of the Chicago metro with wraparound from a surface low that initially tracks so far NW. The various solutions that have shown a big hit demonstrate that those outcomes are certainly plausible. However, with needing to get the multiple moving parts right, there's plenty of failure modes (as shown by the solutions that keep the big snow out of the metro), and reason to be skeptical locally. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

The cat was meowing so went to see where he was at. Found him sitting on the bathroom windowsill. And looked out and wow there are so many stars shining tonight. Guess he was telling me to come look.

I took my first walk outside in ~a week this evening due to the end of false summer. It was pleasant with near normal mid 50s, dewpoints near 40, and a nice steady breeze. Looking forward to nice walking wx over almost every one of the next 10 days. Spring has sprung. Actually it is a fallback to spring in this odd March!

AI GFS took a huge jump north and is more in line with the OP now. ICON and GEM are way north too.

lol Duke won their game against FSU 80-79, while UNC lost their game to Clemson 80-79 (after a ferocious near-comeback by Carolina). College basketball.