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It would be fascinating to see happen as it would be a very 1982-83 style end.

Temperature here in Eastern North Carolina fell like a rock when the nor'easter approached then moved through. It's only now starting to get back to "warm" (by our standards anyway.)

Man I didn't realize the lower/outer Cape got pretty screwed rainfall wise.

I'm inclined to go overall milder than average due to the obvious; strong mainly east based Nino. I, like Jeff and also the usual outcome of Nino Winters, expect late Winter to offer more Winter Wx opportunities. However, there may be some surprises in December if what some Other's in the Field are making note of. Bastardi mentions that in a Tweet tonight on his X page ,The American Storm.: "Starting to see other folks picking up on the endgame idea. This tweet was from Sept 10. Also, an important link to some cold in the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas period in the East. Given the December blowtorch modeling, that would be something. Remember it has to do with the MJO being favorable for the tropics in Oct, then rolling back around 40-60 days later. Point is AI's and human forecasters picking up on it". The record warm December of the strong '82-83 Nino actually had a major Snow storm the 11th and 12th. A light snowfall the 21st. So, even the warmest Dec on Record produced normal to above average snowfall. The strong Nino of '97-98 had a measurable Snowfall the end of December. 5 inches recorded in Pennington gap. Much more in the higher elevations.

2.92" total for the last 4 days with some drizzle this evening. Nice event to welcome fall.

It’s more of we’re once again having a modeled wet pattern completely collapse overnight despite having a big precip event. See also the end of this past May.

Thanks for posting about this. After reading your post, I decided it would be worthwhile to check out another forum (which includes other pro-mets): https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php I read hundreds of posts in their “The 2026 melting season” thread. The first post I saw mentioning the unusually cold DMI 80+ N temperatures was on 5/25/26 (post #268) on the following page (p. 6) by very experienced pro-met Niall Dollard: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.250.html Niall said, “I suspect we will see a rapid increase on the DMI N80 graph in the next day or two, as that deep low advects warmth into the general DMI N80 area near the pole. Unusually, the daily mean has been below the 1958-2002 mean for much of the month of May.” ———————— Then go to p. 9 and look at post #474 on 7/16/26 from pro-met Glen Koehler in here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.450.html Glen said: “The DMI 80N values are unprecedented. I looked at every annual chart for 1958-2026, and no other year has such a large and prolonged period of below 2C temperature during June and July.” and ”The 2026 DMI 80N chart is so anomalous that it makes me wonder if a sensor or data processing change is affecting the 80N chart in summer 2026. Anoother possibility is that the slushification of the ice near the North pole is creating a different relationship between ice and 2M air temperature.” ———————— Then @TheClimateChanger, who you may recall used to go by “Frivolous” here, posted in #490 (also on p.9) as “Frivolousz21” on 7/18/26 as a reply to Glen: ”It's not from an error. It's just that there has been a relentless PV anomaly and essentially next to no unimpeded solar insolation. It's been pretty crazy. This might end up the best year for ice retention since 2006.” ———————— I went through the rest of the thread and there never was agreement on the cause. So, it remains a mystery there. I respect your knowledge and appreciate your post on this. But I plan to continue posting these DMI graphs at least until if/when there’s strong agreement in the overall pro-met community with you that 2026 really isn’t as cold relative to past years as the graphs show. —————— Today’s daily update had another sharp cooling (~1C) from yesterday keeping it colder than the blue line’s climo: I just looked at the model consensus and it is, indeed, solidly BN N of 80N. However, those same models are showing significant warming to AN very quickly. So, I’m expecting it to go back above the blue line within just a couple of days at most.

The red and green mix this year is wild.

I’ll eat my words.

there's merely a one letter difference between rainfall and rainfail

Pictures don’t do it justice, it’s absolutely magnificent

So highest I can find is 8.73" at Blue Hill. Any higher reports that did not make it into the PNS? The pcpn gradients are all over the place. N Shore to S Shore in MA? Ern CC to wrn CC and ORH Co? Seems like frictional convergence played a role as coastal location were low (Rockport 1.20" and Scituate 2.91") and increased not that far inland. Given the entire event was banded pcpn spiraling largely E to W, this makes sense. Imagine the anguish some would be having here from royal screw zones if this was snow and seeing epic amounts not far away. And for once, the max was within 5 mi of Weymouth!

Defintely We have seen 80s in October.

blizzards hit Florida

Recall that time, I think in 2018, big rains on Cape Cod, and the dunes were eroded from rainwater flowing into the ocean! You thought that was funny.

Look upstairs. See my previous post. Not into what model caves to another or whatever, but there is definitely a legit fail mode for our region... Fail if you want rain ofc.

Not hating it if we miss the rain this weekend. Maybe selfishly because my yard just had an inch+, but didn't get much over here when places west were getting soaked the previous event. All evens out. I prefer a nice, rainless weekend to enjoy outside stuff- like stacking firewood that's been piled up for a month.

Did not have much "cleaning" of the trees after Gloria in 1985. Bob did some in 1991, but only in RI/sern MA really. The only real big tree cleanings in the 90s and massive power outages was the early Dec 1996 1-2 punch (only time I have seen two discrete strong nor'easter back-to-back in 2 calendar days here!) and then the ice storm in Jan 1998. Then nothing that big until the Dec 2008 ice storm and then we really got some "house cleaning" events since w/ a cluster into the mid 2010s. @CoastalWxcan't stop talking about the GHG tree damage from the Bliz of 13! But a true widespread cleaning is still lacking overall. Need another Gloria or higher for that. Need to tax/pressure the trees inland w/ FQT G60kt and higher for several hours w/ leaves on the trees and an unfrozen ground. @ineedsnow be like "BRING IT ON!"

What looked like a decent rain a few days ago has withered to almost nothing. Leaves are falling fast.

My retinas hurt yesterday… the clouds just had the place glowing neon. The reds were hard for the camera to deal with they were so blown out.

It's kind of weird I'm beginning to recognize that golf course from the pictures over the years.