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You're gonna have a blizzard you'll be fine lol

I forgot you were over here in DE. I think we are solid even in some sort of worst case fail scenario. Like others have said, get some sleep, and get ready to stay up late tomorrow night. I usually don't, but 2"/hour rates and possible thundersnow are worth it...

Just saw a map on TWC, and it looks like they are riding the GFS since that map looked much like the GFS qpf distribution at 0z. Just a day or two ago, one of them said the likelihood of the GFS solution (which was more robust than the Euro at the time) was very slim. You can't make this stuff up.

Nice map. Not going to lie, I thought the original post question mark was… the forecast

Dude, you're set. Get some sleep to enjoy tomorrow night. You're going to get mauled.

Isn't that one of the top analogs for this system?

8:35pm

Sure entertaining for his time but a tragic story. He took his own life at age 59 in 1983. I don't think he ever got over his firing which was inevitable considering his on air comment. As I remember it Roger grimsby just finished a horrible story about an underage girl being raped. The weather was next and Tex opened up the dialogue with "As Confuscious once said, if rape is inevitable sit back, relax and enjoy it" You could have heard a pin drop in the studio immediately afterward. He was fired the next day.

Dover should do as well as ACY.

nyc 10+ snowfalls storms NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms ≥ 10.0" 1933–2026 Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0" Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2" Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0" Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1" Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7" Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4" Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0" Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6" Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8" Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7" Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5" Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2" Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4" Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5" Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5" Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3" Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6" Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7" Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7" Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6" Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6" Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8" Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8" Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2" Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7" Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0" Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8" Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0" Jan 27–28, 2004 – 10.3" Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8" Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9" Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9" Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0" Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9" Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0" Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0" Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4" Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5" Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5" Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5" Dec 16–17, 2020 – 10.5" Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4" Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

It looks like I get into the N fringe of that, just as this area did in '97.

a world exists where it takes longer for it to flip to snow, takes longer for it to stick, and precip exits a little quicker... advisory with a watch is fine to me

If I were there right now I'd be makin a road trip to DE or New Jersey. Man that place is gonna get demolished! Those high winds blasting snow is gonna make that place look like it is getting Mammothed.

You have a decent shot of getting deformed.

I don't know that one...."fair weather" and "good ole days" are my go-tos.

will be the biggest anxiety of my life tomorrow morning when i wake up to check on to see what happened overnight in terms of trends. not gonna stay up for the 00z euro. im afraid of what its gonna show.

Genuinely concerned about downed trees and power outages here. We have a trailer that's surrounded by some very tall oak trees, and the wind direction has me nervous. My only consolation is that they have survived Isabel, Isaias, Sandy, etc..

we have a girl kitty who loves the "white bugs". i hope she gets to see them during the day tomorrow.

The day the event started the forecast had backed off to like 10-15 or 12-18 but it was evident it was in trouble early.

I actually don’t think they are- this is a crazy strong storm and rates are going to be unlike anything east coast has seen in a long time. Warmer also means more moisture available and seeing the dynamics at play someone’s getting buried. That being said, if you’re outside the areas of max lift (DC area) I could see a white rain event. Praying on the IVT is like playing lottery

For Jan 2016 I remember it raining for about 30 seconds in Austin and getting windy, which was the initiating system to get the HECS going. That was my part in it. It was 50/50ish until the last minute how much would make it to NYC. That day it was gorgeous, 75 degrees there and I just looked at the palm tree next to my swimming pool and laughed.

It’s a definite possibility if we end up training convection into the CCB. Some of the models have that April ‘97 look with that feature.

West Concord currently

So am I correct that at 1 am we get 5 meso runs ?,,,,,if I can stay awake that long as I am spent

The biggest issue seems to be if one or two model runs showed 20" of snow then disappointment takes over when it changes to 4-8. There have been 4 storms at least this season that Central Va was bullseyed for double sis it inches and the most we've has has been like 5