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Yes, the mean is well west and into the E TN valley. No idea if it can get this far, but you can see the jog. You asked if this could jog northwest. I do believe the trough could verify north of where it is show currently. If so, this shifts the track.

Yeah. It’s rare to see a forecast bust that bad these days. Although my yard only had about an inch from this system, it was still a surprise. I wasn’t expecting much snow this morning and next thing I knew it was snowing very hard around 8am. I looked at the radar and there was snow developing all over the SE quarter of the state and I thought then that the forecast could be a bust.

That's the aifs

i read something by Eric Webb that there could be a significant NW shift in the final 24 hours

Let’s not get to overly confident…has work to do. But it has the time to do it. Still Not sure it makes it though.

GEFS is west even more. Webb says he doesn’t buy any eastern NC solution.

Welp. We’ll get it next time. Feb will be rockin’

GFS has been proven wrong time and again. I bet Euro will be right in regards to the 24th as well, a big cutter during our warmup

No accumulation with those temps for Saturday unless higher elevation. Still has almost nothing for Sunday.

Agreed. And currently you’re in the best spot of all of us, along with those on the Cape. The rest of us have to hope for a few more movements than you.

I’m going with the EPS and op EURO on this one

its coming!!!

Well, its gonna be tough sleddin in here for you, because things are nowhere close to what you'd like in modeling. You either need to accept it, or get over it, because its really old and stale reading your same rants over and over.

Yeah, but a positive step toward the GFS. Let's see if it can keep going!

18z GEFS left. 12z right.

Agreed. Hard to argue that wasn’t a fairly sizable shift

For Sunday: CMC has light snow UKMET has light snow AI models (GFS and Euro) have light-moderate snow ICON has light snow GFS has a snowstorm Euro has almost nothing For Saturday: all models have up to an inch for almost all of us. But since temps will be in low-mid 30s, there will be no accumulation

18Z euro did shift west quite a bit. Not as far as GFS but much better than 12Z. As some have mentioned, it does look a lot like the setup for January, 28, 2014

Another shift like that and it’s a warning event for Eastern Ma

Yep but I still think these globals are way too dry as it is. I fully expect some namming to occur Friday. Cams will tell the story.

Sure looks to me like the 18z GEFS ensemble members ticked NW.

That was a good move by the Euro. the outliers from 12z have moved towards each other at 18z

That’s where the 6z gfs had the snow. Keep going

Euro AI was just noise to me, i mean you are really splitting hairs at this time frame to say west or east. It's the same imo.