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Yeah, look at how there is consistency. This is what I would expect. Usually the Winter pattern sets up in Nov/Dec and persists. In the Pacific the Winter pattern can even set up as early as Sept/Oct. If the atmosphere is Nina-like right now, I don't see why it would be +PNA in Jan, although 7 of the last 7 is like a 1:25 random type of thing. The 384hr ensemble means still have a very strong Aleutian ridge, +300dm in early Jan. It's also showing no signs of letting up, strengthening in anomaly between 372hr - 384hr. Kudos to those who said La Nina effects would happen this Winter. The pattern with a dry STJ and flooding in the NW is actually Moderate/Strong Nina like. 2nd year PDO's, where the PDO didn't correlate year 1 have really high correlation numbers in year 2 for whatever reason.

Chuck, The strongest Jan +PNAs for +ENSO were these: 1977: +1.8 from +0.5 in Dec 1983: +1.2 from +0.8 in Dec 1987: +1.0 from +1.4 in Dec 1992: +1.3 from +0.5 in Dec 2003: +1.3 from +1.6 in Dec 2010: +1.3 from +0.3 in Dec 2016: +2.0 from +0.8 in Dec So, avg Dec preceding +1+ +ENSO Jan PNA was +0.8. But avg Jan following +1+ +ENSO Dec PNA was only +0.5 though it was skewed by 1954.

you didn't get any from the last event?

What in the world is that 9.7" in Monmouth county? I didn't see anything over 9" anywhere in cocorahs coop or the PNS by PHI.

Yeah, it neutralizes. If you start from the most extreme point, it should come toward evening out. Still, ENSO is a powerful factor so I would have thought the +PNA January's would be more extreme. 6/7 were +PNA January's though, and since 1980, 5/5 were +PNA January's. It neutralizes the other side/point. Still, a net neutral signal in January-ENSO is something. Will be interesting to watch and see how this January evolves, I do know that Natural Gas led these Euro weeklies and all this warm stuff for Jan by some time! I'm going to say that they are probably too warm, but we'll see.

that was a wild storm. many people were stranded hours even didn't make it home. ..I had a 2wd but manual 2006 Toyota Tacoma that made it. I was smelling gears and etc up from Cambridge to Arlington on route two, it was a crazy trek. I barely made it up that hill; could see people behind me not making it but I could not stop because I would lose it took 1 hr. 45 min. to go from Watertown MA to Wilimington. Drove past dozens of vehicles that were far more equipped but don't know how to drive

Chuck, Let’s see. I’m looking now at +ENSO 1+ PNA Decembers to Januaries: there were 8 cases: - 1953-4 +1.3 to -1.1: drop of 2.4 - 1963-4 +1.8 to +0.2: drop of 1.6 - 1969-70 +1.8 to +0.6: drop of 1.2 - 1986-7 +1.4 to +1.0: drop of 0.4 - 1997-8 +1.2 to +0.7: drop of 0.5 - 2002-3 +1.6 to +1.3: drop of 0.3 - 2006-7 +1.9 to +0.7: drop of 1.2 - 2023-4 +1.2 to +0.5: drop of 0.7 - avg drop 1.0 - avg drop much higher for 1st 3 cases (1.7) vs last 5 (0.6) ———— Your thoughts?

I vaguely remember driving home from school on a few snowy occasions that year when our usually stubborn superintendent waited until the last minute to let us out early. That must’ve been one of those wild storms where me and a few others spun out at least several times just trying to get out of the school parking lot. Thanks for helping unlock a fun memory from my crazy senior year.

Same that's why i recorded 2.9 here because that's exactly what it was. I'd love to say 3" and call it a day. Almost everyone at my latitude broke 3" or more except probably New London county. I have a nice ruler that's divided in 1/10ths of inch for measuring snow. If I'm going to be making all these snowfall maps and determining which reports are valid and which ones are not, i should be holding myself to a high standard.

Tonight’s GFS kept Christmas hopes alive. Maybe this season things will trend in the right direction more.

Yes, I'm surrounded on all sides by 2500ft+ peaks.

Hey Larry, All of your examples 1950-1980 were -PNA January. Then you have only 7 examples after 1980.. now 7/7 is a strong point, I agree, but it might be in the field of random if you consider what ENSO is/does. A good test would be the opposite: What did January do in +ENSO after a +PNA December? What there a difference 1950-1980 and after 1980 (I haven't run the data, but will say probably not - just guessing). My map in the last post includes that, so since it rolls forward to a pretty strong N. Pacific ridge in January, I'm thinking it probably doesn't check out the other way around: (does +PNA Dec lead to -PNA Jan in +ENSO?).

Hey Chuck, Here’s a post I made on Friday going all of the way back to 1950 that shows that for some reason (possibly randomness) the sharpest rises from a sub -1 PNA Dec to Jan have occurred since 1984-5 (CC related?): “This implies the realistic chance for a sub -1 Dec PNA. Whereas that’s bad news for those wanting E US cold in the 2nd half of Dec in the MidAtlantic/OH Valley south, it isn’t necessarily bad news for January prospects. That’s because in the vast majority of cases for -ENSO, the PNA in January rose sharply from Dec: PNA Dec/Jan for -ENSO for strongly -PNA in Dec - 1955-6: -2.1/-1.3 (rose 0.8) - 1961-2: -1.2/-0.1 (rose 1.1) - 1964-5: -1.7/-0.2 (rose 1.5) - 1971-2: -1.5/-1.4 (rose 0.1) - 1984-5: -1.6/+1.6 (rose 3.2) - 1996-7: -1.2/+0.6 (rose 1.8) - 2008-9: -1.4/+0.6 (rose 2.0) - 2010-1: -1.8/+1.3 (rose 3.1) - 2012-3: -1.0/+0.6 (rose 1.6) - 2013-4: -0.9/+1.0 (rose 1.9) - 2021-2: -2.6/+1.0 (rose 3.6) So, average PNA rise Dec to Jan for these was a whopping 1.9!

GFS is LBWSW for Xmas which seems odd for a northern stream disturbance.

GFS is looking better in the long term.

I don't really get this "negative ENSO turned -PNA to +PNA" since 1980 thing. 1. Why does it only start in the 1980s? Data was not unreliable before then, so it's not like you're starting from a blank point. I think a lack of examples increases the odds of random. If it didn't work before 1980, that's telling, not an ignored difference. 2. That's not what Negative ENSO does. Negative ENSO does not support a +PNA in January. The Hadley cell is extended in the N. Pacific in La Nina more often than not, and that supports -PNA. Since we are having such a strong -PNA December, here is a fun roll forward. This is what 500mb January looks like after -PNA Dec.. this is a total composite of 73 years, both - and + signs considered, going back to 1948: That's an Aleutian ridge in the mean for January. But the ridge is a little further NE, which makes January a cold month for a lot of the US. The reason why it will sometimes switch is the MJO runs if 45-day cycles and Kelvin and Rossby waves sometimes run in 45-60 day cycles. We don't have a strong phase of those things now -- it will be interesting to see if we do go more +PNA after the 1st week of January. I think you are discovering a high mathematical random skew.

Just drove home from work crossing Afton Mt... Temp went from mid / upper 20s in Charlottesville to 39 on the mountain back down to 25 in Waynesboro ( according to the car temp gauge ) ... Definitely warmer air is moving in aloft..

Are you in a mountain Valley in any way ? It's 35 here. There was snow still lying around up in Wise County today. Half inch to an inch in some shady areas in Norton and Wise . The Temperature was near 40 there this Afternoon.

There’s close to 8” of black ice. You could drive a tractor-trailer truck out on the ice. It’s not going anywhere with one warm day.

Not here either. December '89 was colder and snowier.

Good point. But as I said earlier, in Jan if you’re AN by a bit, it’s not a big deal due to what you just pointed out too.

Everyone of them went to a +PNA. Wow .

I get out in the weather a few times a day, the dog certainly aids that endeavor, it's been a cold December. Still 75% snow cover of at least 3" here and it hasn't snowed in two weeks.

I'm verifying much cooler than forecast lately. Last night my predicted low was 21, it was 15 this morning. Predicted high was 45, it was 41. Predicted low of 32 tonight, it's already 26.

Thats like a -7 NAO on the GFS at 300. I'm sure the GEFS will look different.