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The 10th to 11th starting to look like dung now. Hope it comes back.

The good thing that I see with regards to the mid-month ridge rolling through is that it is temporary on all ensembles this morning. It is always in the realm of possibility that the ridge is a pattern change, but for now it looks transient at best(3-4 days at the longest). That ridge, as long as it rolls through, could very well set the stage for the coldest air of the season(so far) to fill that trough behind it. There are pretty strong mechanisms in place to deliver cold air d10-15.

But I’m not snowenouthere and I’ll eat my shoe if wrong

One thing that might help this snow compared to many other storms is when we have to wait for the cold to bleed in before precip. Not with this one so whatever precip does fall won’t be lost to temps

I'd take a nice covering of the streets and ground. 1-2" would be nice. Anything more - and its a small chance - would be gravy.

Sold. That's December climo snowfall for many.

You people are weirdos.

Glad you mentioned this. I don’t fully understand the modelology or the long term possibilities, and while I don’t discount them, there’s definitely a *feel* we overlook a lot. It’s like analytics and baseball; while they’re very useful, there’s an eye test, too, which you can intuit and tell when a pitcher can master hitters. I know it’s a La Niña, so it’s usually colder earlier in the season, but that feel is there. Thanks for coming to my TED talk. .

It’ll be cool to get some snow in minimal sun angle season. None will be wasted.

The snow and ice crews out on the Deep South shore is hysterical. Slow previous two years . .

Overnight ensembles are interested wrt wintry weather in the period around Dec 11-12. As many changes as we've seen with this upcoming system overnight Thursday into Friday AM, will be interesting to see how the 11-12th evolves over the next 5 days or so.

Wunderground has snow 3 straight days 10-12th. Light but indicative of the conversation about small systems and clippers. Cold and somewhat active is good and can bring surprises that we don’t agonize about for 7 days.

I’ll take whatever the gfs is smoking on that Monday system

A little crud on the car. Deep winter.

Snow contest for iad might be over!

Big broad area of accumulating snow! Cold temps! Let’s go!!

Thanks, i never posted it in the NYC forums because i figured most would catch it in SNE and didn't want to be redundant. But yeah we got a whole Tri-State section and all the storms in the Winter Storm Archive have Tri-State Area snowfall maps included, as well as radar, sfc and upper air animations. I'm currently in the middle of the 95-96 season which should be done in the next couple weeks. I remember telling @LibertyBell that season would probably never happen but i decided to go back to 94-95 since i can get radar back to Jan 1 1995. I'm working on this past storm atm so if anyone has any reports let me know and ill include them.

Sold!

2 days out and there’s this much difference between gfs and euro. Ugh can it ever just be some agreement.

Well, however it plays out well ahead of the game this season.

6z Euro

2 inches after this 6.1 total

I'd be careful in cancelling any warmup because both ensembles try (operational word, "try") to send a trough into the western US giving us a bootleg -PNA. But any warmup appears to be only temporary. Maybe a week or so, or even a few days. When I play out the roll forwards from 11-15 to 6-10, that western trough retrogrades NW and instead pops up a flat ridge there instead, allowing cold air to move SE across the CONUS. For example, comparing 360 hr from Nov 26 against 192 hr from today's EPS run, you can see what I'm getting at. Old run (11/26): New run (today):