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During the end-Permian extinction about 252 million years ago, a supercontinent known as Pangaeaexperienced extreme climate disruptions driven by a 10-year mega El Niño episode. [1, 2] Key Details from Research Duration: Unlike modern El Niño events that typically last about a year, the warmest phases of this ancient event lasted up to 10 years continuously. [1, 2] The Panthalassic Ocean: This multi-year event originated in the vast Panthalassic Ocean (the super-ocean surrounding Pangaea), which was much larger than today's Pacific Ocean and absorbed immense amounts of heat. [1] Volcanic Forcing & CO2: Massive volcanic eruptions from the Siberian Traps doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) from roughly 410 to 860 ppm, collapsing ocean circulation and flattening temperature gradients across the super-ocean. [1] Mass Extinction Impact: The decade-long locking of severe drought, extreme heat, and raging wildfires devastated terrestrial forests, accelerated a global feedback loop, and contributed to the greatest mass extinction event in Earth's history. [1, 2, 3]

Defintely the 1st half

October was kicking my ass work-wise.... DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 2.0 0.5

36.5 was the low . We Growvember

I’ve seen that guy on there. He’s on Twitter as well. So many people don’t understand what happens here with Canada so torched .

Hasn't really rained since October 16th. Unfortunately that streak looks to over by the end of the week. "There still are quite a few uncertainties and unresolved details typical of a day-6 timeframe specific to this system, including rain amounts, its timing and if the system can draw on a plume of subtropical moisture to enhance rain rates. Ensemble 24-hr QPF probabilities from Friday through Saturday show moderate (40-60%) probabilities 0.5" or more of rain with low to moderate (up to 30%) probabilities of an inch or more of rain. While temps should still run above normal and also run a touch humid (by early Nov standards), this looks to be the next really good chance at much-needed wetting rainfall.

And down goes hartford!

You can throw Worcester out of the club.

26.6° not far off of the low so far this season of 26.1°

Yep. They have absolutely sucked with this event. Embarrassing. The CANSIPS finally caved to the EURO, showing a +4.1C December peak now like the EURO has had for months. And it’s still dead wrong on the orientation of this extreme east-based/EP Nino

26F so far for the low this am.

DCA: +3.1 NYC: +2.8 BOS: +2.6 ORD: +3.0 ATL: +2.2 IAH: +2.3 DEN: +1.9 PHX: +1.1 SEA: +0.9

One well-placed nor’easter can absolutely push the Lehigh Valley above normal for the winter. Allentown got 31.9 inches from the January 2016 blizzard alone. If a coastal low slows down where its heaviest snow band sits over the Valley and the cold air holds, that one storm can decide where we finish. preview.weather.gov My pop-up thunderstorm analogy fits. You can reasonably forecast that the afternoon favors thunderstorms and still have no idea at breakfast whose backyard will get drenched. El Niño gives forecasters some insight into the winter storm track. NOAA’s outlook this winter favors wetter conditions along the Eastern Seaboard, but it gives no seasonal snowfall total for Allentown. I’d take the regional odds seriously and be skeptical of anyone claiming in November that our region will finish below normal

Are any of you all using Spotter Tools Pro? It is a new weather radar program and it's free after initial purchase in the app store. https://www.facebook.com/share/1DSNaajEg8/ Sent from my moto g stylus 5G - 2023 using Tapatalk

That huge cold anamolie over eastern Siberia is the last thing you want to see. .

Now that the multi-run CFS’ have warmed considerably in the E US for Feb vs how they were a couple of weeks ago, the above Nov Cansips run for Feb is notably colder by ~2F than the latest 3 day CFS for Feb, which is below (even after considering the ~1F colder climo being used by this TT CFS):