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GEFS snow mean FWIW

I think we had some at 18z yesterday and more at 0z. Can anyone confirm?

The cyclical roller coaster here when catching up on the thread after a few hours is something to behold. It goes from it's looking bad, it's looking worse, looks really bad, throw in the towel, followed almost immediately by some model which suddenly gives hope, followed by a few more that follow suit, followed by more that show no storm, followed by heated debate, followed by a model that says GAME ON", then some quiet... and then... repeat. Every 90 minutes or so.

You might just need some drugs lmao

Should be quite a deformation band way west with this. Congrats Southbury

DC has fallen. .

They aren't that different at the surface though - same with the ICON (and probably the Euro once it comes out). The GFS tucks the low in closer to land (in fact over land) and ramps up earlier. The CMC is 15 mb weaker at 90 hr, and 100 miles SE of the GFS. By hour 102 the CMC is about 5 mb stronger and maybe 75 miles or less apart. Its just the timing that makes the difference. Similar with the ICON. By the time they really ramp up, they are south of Maine. Its just that those differences of 12 hours in when the various parts that will make this system bomb out come together are super meaningful to weather we see a historic blizzard or nothing.

Relax. DC may not even get near that if gfs is off. I would not say sucked, but definitely frustrating moments. Plenty of snow and snowpack so far.

Just waiting for the “I lost 36” from 12z” this afternoon at about 5pm.

Holy shit, I legit rolled a nat 20. No joke.

you might be joking but.. yeah, 100%.

This is following, quite literally, the same progression we’ve seen from all these systems this year. some mid range waffling, but ultimately, there was never real support. Just enough to waste everyone’s time for 3-4 days, before it finally slowly vanishes under 100 hours

I mean half that amount and we are shitting ourselves. the problem seems to be things never take just a step back at this late juncture. they fall down the stairs with grandma's old china and the storm is 300miles off OBX at 18z. 11th hour fails are our specialty as you know. but man...jesus...filthy is really the only word that fits

In progress! @HighStakes had a post about this earlier. We have access to a lot of other models than the gfs... we just need the GFS to get fixed

Or it's going to score the biggest coup in weather model history...lol

The changes start early on the Models... so it would not take much for the other models to follow suit... or for the GFS to fall apart.

Ready for spring in some with tracking after this, feel like tracking has just been getting worse and worse this winter lol

A Nacho and at least three red-tags.

Ji isn't here because he's on FB

You literally said cmc looks like crap just before he posted it looks crappy...

I’ll be surprised if anyone south of the pike sees more than an inch. Maybe someone lucky gets 2” of slop. Hope people enjoy it, because the mechanism that’s “helping” this system, is part of the reason we’re going to whiff the coastal

what a winter out on the Cape and esp. ACK. congrats

Just out of hernia surgery. 12z suxxx, sans GFS Maybe I won't have to shovel though

Attenuation. Heard that word a lot this season.

Happy chooks today