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Personally, I'm thinking this 8-10 day range here is pretty meaningful. Does Santa deliver a true Scandinavian block or not. Some of these half attempts probably don't work well for us. This is from the 12z eps cluster analysis. 5 of them for this period today. Todays Euro OP says no, and is grouped with cluster 2. Cluster 1 on the eps, populated with a greater number of members says yes. I flipped this for easier viewing of our side of the world. So clusters 1-5 is left to right. Days 8-10 are bottom to top. If we do happen to see an amplified block like the 1st cluster is displaying then you'd probably see a pretty big wave 2 shot that goes up into the strat along with it. If that does not happen, then you won't see that. Probably not a retrograde to a true -NAO block either I would assume. You can see it expressed in the EPS strat mean during this timeframe too. Which is most likely reflecting that potential feature in the members. One way or another, we want to see that block happen. Incidentally, there are factors which support the block to indeed happen based on reasons laid out in this thread already. We wait and see if one does actually materialize but it does appear as a favored outcome in this 12z eps run as well.

They do not look like January 1990 verbatim. January 1990 was much warmer in the Northeast and midwest than today's run of the euro weeklies is for January 2026. You are essentially doing the same thing you constantly criticize JB for doing. You are taking a mild look and throwing out eye catching warm years past, despite the fact they dont match.

I would like winter a lot more if I didn’t get cold or snow like you.

By 200, the NAO is having significant effects on the run compared to previous runs. The 12z AIFS scores a coup if it nailed it first.

That is a big time NAO on the 18z GFS run. It doesn't have a lot of impact yet, and its staying power is TBD. It may be a forced NAO which just results due to dynamics and is passing through, or it might be the SSW finally working its magic along w/ the QBO. It could hook into the mid-continent ridge, but that generally would cause an NAO and subsequent cold outbreak about 3 weeks later...and has been a common feature of winters of late.

Solar panels producing some power again today. Melt away

The last time DCA got a comparable amount of December snow it wasn’t shut out for the remainder of the season once January rolled around.

Only put me in a straight jacket.

That icon is me now after the last 4 years.

WB 12Z EPS teleconnections.

IF IF it happened that way, at least this December was better snowfall wise than 1989 lol. That year had a heartbreaking snow to rain storm in the middle of one of the coldest Decembers in history. 1989/1990 was probably the most disappointing in my lifetime.

That would be great if there was someone. I had a friend on another weather forum who lived near the park several years ago. He used to to take measurements himself and 90% of the time they were under measured. Often by 20-30% similar to the storm we just had.

If you got winter every year you’d feel like me too.

I’d prefer that to the constantly dangling carrot that we can never reach. Like 2011-12 was great because we knew it was awful. And by March, it was full blown spring.

If you are stating that is the average of any record setting daily highs then that is probably correct. However the mean or average max daily high is no where near that

36 today

December 2022 cold and January-March 2023 torch incoming ? Don’t laugh at that idea too much. La ninas usually put their eggs in the basket early. If that basket isn’t full early on, it likely never becomes full

Thats not what he said and I don’t think and have never seen any calculation of what is the average of the highest temps for the second half of the month

I'm struggling to determine where this one falls...

Sorry I didn't see that he was talking to you.. I thought it was a generalization

Pretty much lighter snows, and gusty winds for the foreseeable future. Might get lucky with some lake enhancement/LES. Temps will be a rollercoaster ride.

Anyway…haven’t been above 36° here since 11/29. It will be close tomorrow.

This afternoon’s walk was another pleasant one due to still pretty dry air (dewpoints mid 30s), blue skies, and light winds though it was ~20 warmer (60 vs 40). So, though it was pleasant, it felt better and more invigorating yesterday.

Pretty sure he suggested I’m canceling winter which is quite the contrary. It’s long and unrelenting and will be here until April…and I dread it. Here’s the cliff notes for trying to mentally decipher my posts…. The only things I care about in winter are my chickens, plants, and energy bill. I’m no longer ACATT. I wish winter was shorter I want at least 6” of pack (10” is better) throughout the portion of the season when single digits or colder are common I will always enjoy a good snowstorm I can do without below 0F temps Yet I still enjoy the week of peak deepest winter that we get I do not cancel winter before March Despite what weather I wish for I always try to be a realist here I like to troll 76% of my posts contain some level of sarcasm and the other 24% usually aren’t serious