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Of those storms, Lili is probably the best match/analog, as that happened during a high shear/low activity/el nino year. Opal and Dennis happened in low shear/hyperactive years, so they aren't really good matches.

It won’t be that coherent a system by the time it gets up here. Shear will eventually get to it. I agree that these big N Gulf systems usually have a Part 2 big impact area way further north like Camille 1969 and Ida but that’s when it can remain a coherent consolidated system. Up here it looks more like a strung out frontal system.

Appreciate the input. I’m expecting 60 and cloudy at best if I try to host our outdoor party. Fire pit will be roaring, but I’m sure the older generation will still be cold.

Oh yes Dennis. That underwent rapid weakening leading up to landfall as well, after rebounding big time once off Cuba.

If it rains next Sunday I quit.. $2000 for fall baseball 8 tournaments at this age they only play Saturday for seeding then Sunday single eliminination.. so far 6 tournaments in and 5 have been rained out on Sundays (semis and championship), one tournament completely washed out, and this Sunday is 50/50..

The point some of us have been making is the double standard being applied regarding the concern for the attendees in Tuscaloosa vs that for those in Atlanta: Tuscaloosa: SATURDAY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS, COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. Atlanta: SATURDAY SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. ————— As one can see, the forecast is actually much worse for the afternoon gametime in ATL for Duke/GT than it is not just for the evening gametime in Tuscaloosa but even during the tailgating time in Tuscaloosa well before the game even starts! So, gusts to 50 with possible thunderstorms/heavy rain and even a slight chance for a tornado in ATL for the game itself vs gusts only to 30, much lighter rain, and no thunderstorms in Tuscaloosa during the entire PM tailgating period well before the game even starts! @PhiEaglesfan712

There will be no remnants. It will be just a simple low pressure system on a front with some tropical moisture. Only the Euro give NJ more than in inch and that is only in isolated spots.

Euro is now faster-other models are evening....

I still like Choctawhatchee Bay for max surge of 10'.

Wish I knew. best guess is early afternoon

Surge is always tricky to nail down, but while the inhibiting factors will help, there's actually a decently large areas of strong winds on the eastern side of the storm and I believe the northern gulf is slightly more susceptible to surge due to the shallow continental shelf. Likely won't be devastating, but I can see areas like Destin seeing a fairly significant storm surge.

Looks like an angel with the center being the head and the flight path being the body

Flash flooding could become a concern tomorrow night as those feeder bands train over the same areas. HRRR shows these and some other modeling as well

October 9 1970: Montevideo sets a record low high temperature of 35. 1938: Forest fires on the 9th and 10th claim 21 lives in northern Minnesota. For Friday, October 9, 2026 1903 - New York City was deluged with 11.17 inches of rain 24 hours to establish a state record. Severe flooding occurred in the Passaic Valley of New Jersey where more than fifteen inches of rain was reported. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1981 - The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date. Asheville NC dipped to 29 degrees, and the record low of 47 degrees at Jacksonville FL marked their fourth of the month. A second surge of cold air brought light snow to the Northern Plains, particularly the Black Hills of South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Ten cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Hartford CT with a reading of 28 degrees. Snow continued in northern New England through the morning hours. Mount Washington NH reported five inches of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the Upper Midwest. Thirteen cities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana reported record low temperatures for the date, including Marquette MI with a reading of 20 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. as the San Francisco Giants won the National League pennant. San Jose CA reported a record high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 9 Fri World Egg Day 9 Fri World Post Day 9 Fri Leif Erikson Day 9 Fri International Beer and Pizza Day 9 Fri National Digitool Day 9 Fri National Moldy Cheese Day 9 Fri National Pro-Life Cupcake Day 9 Fri National C60 Day 9 Fri Curious Events Day

Historical context - Isaias is easily the strongest Oct-Nov GOM hurricane since the beginning of the 20th Century when considering the 15 strongest El Ninos. Note that 2002 (Lili) was excluded from this list as it was a Modoki Nino. https://x.com/yconsor/status/2108558918406328651

Going over very warm water now keeping the intensity up. Will hit cooler water as it goes north and shear to weaken it. Time is running out.

Models (at least right now) show in moving in and out fairly quickly so maybe 1-2 inches of rain

Everyone that knows a lick about weather knows west moving typhoons means ridging or zonal flow and not cold lol

A rapidly intensifying major under 10 hours from landfall is justification for as many passes as they safely have fuel for!

Good call. I was all over the eastern track, but I should have factored the implications of that more heavily into the intensity forecast, as more of an easterly component minimizes shear. I hit that hard in the Thursday and Thursday night forecast period from Wednesday, but neglected it later.

Whole northern eyewall is blowing up with convection now

Not to take away from the immediate impact dangers, but being up in NJ, I'm starting to be concerned with the remnants hitting like Ida did. We got over six inches of rain in just a few hours causing significant flooding.