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I clocked a high of 64 today. Crazy stuff up here at this elevation.

I wonder how much the early SSW/reversal played in this winter having a consistently favorable(ish) Pacific. This doesn't seem to be the normal La Nina here, where it's cool for a few weeks before we torch.

Doesn’t matter. QPF is the only map anyone should look at with the ptype being all snow

Try pivotal and you won't get the same result.

When was the last time we had double digit wind chills below zero for the better of 2 days?

Oops

High wind watch.. don't see that often here. Fuck.. Friday Night A chance of light snow after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

Pivotal snow algorithm has a problem, as they show the 18z GFS with .4" qpf here and just 2" of snow. Kuchera is also wrong.

To me in the charts above for example, the 39.7 in 1990 is the 9th coldest temperature but the 13th coldest year.

Would I be right in assuming Liberty Bell = Weathergeek2005 = Tony? Asking because RJay posted a forecast from Tony in contest and RJay's inbox is full so I can't ask him that way.

I'll always take a chance with this +PNA low pressure correlation (both sides are considered, -pna is opposite)

The lowest thickness values of 505 dm are over NYC around 06z Sunday (0100h EST Sunday) after which they slowly increase. It could be one of those nights in rural areas where temperatures tank in the evening, hit rock bottom after midnight then waver or rise slightly towards dawn. In rural areas of NJ and se NY could see -10 F or lower. The air mass waiting to come south is not brutally cold, it is currently -30F in western Nunavut (Ennadai Lake, Rankin Inlet) to -35 C at Cambridge Bay. But there's a pool of -35 C over northern Quebec that will be pulled into the circulation without having to cross any bodies of water to get to western New England or the Hudson valley. Great Lakes influence will be modified too, as Lake Erie is frozen over in many areas, and Lakes Huron and Ontario have near-freezing water temps and some ice cover too. Hudson and James Bay are of course frozen now but even so air crossing ice covered water can pick up slight amounts of heat if snow cover on that ice is not overly deep.

no we dont. the wizards need to lose the rest of their games. Cant afford to win 1

Might want to shitcan the GooFoS

We had temps of 80+ here in Santa Barbara County yesterday. Looks like things get more seasonable over the next 7-10 days, with a few chances for snow in the higher elevations of the Santa Ynez and San Gabriels.

Hey I love me a +PNA/-EPO pattern with bigtime cold. That's worked out well for southern/eastern parts of our area recently. Not so much for folks NW of I-95. That includes you I think. Why root for cold and dry lol.

That Bristol county screw zone has been consistently showing up as a result of the Norlun potential along the coast

once he is locked and loaded with -PNA...its pretty much over with him no matter what else shows up. Sometimes oscillations can neutralize other oscillations like this big ass +WPO is going not overcome a solid -AO/-NAO this week/weekend/maybe next week

I just want a favorable Pacific pattern - I don't care so much about the NAO. In mid to late February, our average high creeps up to the low to mid 40s, so we do need a below average pattern. +EPO/-PNA won't do that >90% of the time. It is pretty bad that we had a lot of favorable patterns the last 2 Winters with not much precip, but that's a Nina STJ.

From Cleve on the Arctic front to get idea of timing. The latest 12z and 18z hi-res forecast model guidance shows the Arctic front arriving in NWOH and around the Toledo area around 4 pm and 6 pm. The front will arrive in the Cleveland area between 5 pm and 7 pm and the Erie, Akron, Canton, Youngstown area between 6 pm and 8 pm. The guidance shows the potential for a broken line of heavier snow showers or possible snow squalls along the passage of the Arctic front Friday evening.

As there is no discussion thread for cold and snow Friday night into weekend, feel free to use contest thread to discuss details. I have amended the thread title.

What do you want, some perfect pattern? When we get those they often don't produce anything. In mid to late Feb snow historically comes pretty easy in our region. Lately not so much, so we got the WDI in our favor too.

We can get snow even here in March, I have pics from a few year back a solid coating on like the 28th, and I’m fairly inland to the immediate coast. It’s just a preference thing whether I live here or in upstate Vermont, more tied in with the length of a solar day. My point was Feb is early to call winter, March is more preferential - but I’m not naive to the climate differences over the relative short distances across the northeast and various metros. I didn’t extend my thoughts on March to anyone but myself. March is absolutely still winter even down here, especially in the northern pine barrens where overnights remain very cold on radiative cooling nights. Like I said, it’s more an abstraction than empirical as far as what I like / dislike or feel is a winter vibe or not, paramount is dark, short days. I was being tongue in cheek about the sun. It’s similar to how the sun starts to ‘look like fall’ in August, nothing beats the dark of December and the feel of looking to the entire winter ahead - that’s more what I meant.

They have a different kind of snow in Colombia, from what I hear.