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Going to be an interesting modeling battle from now until the event on when and if and where any mixing/changeovers occur and how much snow falls before any mix/changeover. I hope Mt. Holly is right about all snow N of 276/195, essentially. One comment for those who don't love snow (and who might root for less snow here): I think you'd rather have 15" of snow (which is easy to move) than 10" of snow, 1" of sleet and 0.2-0.3" of freezing rain on top, as the latter will lead to compaction and a fairly quick freeze into a potentially solid mass within a few hours, as temps in areas where we see freezing rain/rain will dop well below 32F within a few hours of the precip ending - temps everywhere will be in the mid-20s everywhere by Monday at 7 am and will stay there during the day with Monday night lows around -5 to +5F - and it might not reach 20F again until next Sunday. It's going to get really cold.

Things got better overnight besides Euro and Icon (which took a step back) .

I seriously LOL'ed at this!!!

haha yes

Come in out brother. Would love to have you! Do you know how to use a snow shovel?

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 3h Euro operational sees that blizzard threat I am talking about for next weekend, hence the 15 day snow totals jacked up all the way into the Carolinas, and a Fla freeze after No changes on the first storm. Everyone is on top of it now anyway

6z GEFS reinforces the wedge a little more than 00z.

Any brief mix here if it does will go back to snow as CF moves through and winds aloft still out of NE. You should do well even if you flip for a few hours. Much better look there vs outer cape

Only goes up to 66hrs

I guess it Bern but whatever you get the point.

Given the airmass, the trend could actually be a significant benefit to us, at least on the mesoscale level when it comes time to pinning down banding and what the potential amounts may be

Notice that Mt. Holly's Winter Storm Watches only include mixing in their southern zones WSW from KPHI

Jeez, these are gaudy. Is this an artifact of questionable precip algorithm or does it think that much snow for real?

Do we have access to the 6z operational run?

They are always concerning even when you think you're far enough north or west. With that said if this ended with just the last .10 of precip as sleet, I find that ideal for many different reasons.

lol I can be cool too

A Viking seed?

At worst 95% of your precip will be snow. I have a bit more to worry about after the initial thump. Euro still looks decent despite changing over. All bets are off if the trend to keep the primary stronger and further north persists

No he didn't. He also knows what he's looking at. I have no idea why you guys are getting annoyed with him.

I rarely post here despite being a long time lurker. But why exactly are our models so bad at this? We seem to have improved immensely with hurricane forecasting in the last 10-15 years, but modeling this type of event seems to have had zero long range progress. What's the inherent difference?

Look to bottom right at initial phase then look at skew-t. I'm utterly confused how initial phase is not snow Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Nice to finally have a big one to track here in central Ohio! Looking likely to have first Winter Storm Warning in years. My concern now is cold/dry air winning out & that precip shield getting shunted to the south. Not saying it won’t snow but big snow here still at risk. Ratios should be good but too cold & you get a pixy dust storm.

No rest for the weary here. Hopefully everyone has power to track this next wave in the 10 day. All 3 major models show another shot. Of course take it with a grain of salt, but winter certainly doesn’t look over after the ice passes.

I felt terrible for him. It’s hard to read these mods and see our snow disappear, I can’t imagine being on here living in Halls watching it rain and reading about Maynardville 15 minutes away having 8+ inches of snow. .