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August overall was a huge bust for Nino 3.4 as several models had had a steep anomaly warming of a record breaking ~1C from July to Aug whereas the last 4 weeks have overall been flat meaning a warming from July to August of only ~0.5C:

Jax, you seem pretty smart with weather stuff. I found this image interesting. What are your thoughts?

Yeah but, we already had elevated normals compared to 1645-1715. Run of the mill cold. Two can play this game...

Until we get a week of 80s in mid October.

That's just climo for that part of the world August-September. It's always cooling this time of year, but just less so than typical this year.

Summer’s last prolonged flex might be loud, but the end is in sight

Summer won’t last forever

Can the Orioles sweep the A’s today? This is the period we have to take advantage of. We are 1GB of the Wild Card and we have this game today, and 3 vs Col. You sweep at least one and win the series in another and you’re over .500 staring at the final WC spot before a pivotal 7 game stretch incoming at home. Time will tell, but I’m keeping expectations low. As for the Ravens, I was at the game and truly enjoyed what I saw. This defensive scheme is looks pretty sharp, but Minter said this is actually relatively vanilla. The staff has been calling specific plays for specific players to see who they fare so they can analyze further to see who they want to keep. The more exotic play scripts are under wraps for now. Offense has some solid depth pieces, so it’ll likely come down to health and Oline play this season. Kicker concerns me, but that’s something that can be replaced in short order, so I’m not too worried….yet. I hope Loop can write the ship.

I’m throwing the rest of my tomato garden at whoever wants this smoke I’m ready for fall, but Mother Nature has other ideas. Ridge center will thankfully not be overhead, so it could’ve been worse. Heat Advisories are probably likely this week in many spots.

The stuck fronts are a function of the increasing summer high pressure over Eastern Canada building down to east of New England at times. This also enhances the dew points with more onshore flow. Also leads to multiple flash flooding events across the area. We used to get more high pressure to our west with offshore flow prior to this decade. Those were the years you highlighted with more 90° days at JFK. These days the higher 90° counts are west of the sea breeze front in NJ.

Lutchfield/Fairfield County definitely in the game for Tuesday on the 12z NAM. Right along the warm front and instability gradient and also perfectly positioned where shear/instability are maximized. This is going to be a really fun nowcasting situation

Picked up 0.09" this morning. 0.50"+ missed just to the north/northeast.

Hopefully with clouds and shower chances, most heat will be kept at bay (south of M/D). Depends on where boundary sets up. West of river has best chances of 90+. .

I believe the weekly nino 3.4 sst data by the cpc does not apply the scaling factor that's used in the monthly/trimonthly offical nino 3.4 data. The scaling factor for August is 1.16/1.17 per the RONI paper. So the monthly RONI Nino 3.4 data for August should be in the neighborhood of ~2.2C as opposed to ~1.8C. Its at the very least a different data set.

Most of the rain missed us yesterday as some areas just to my northwest picked up over 2". High was only 79 as clouds remained most of the day. Ended with .07". This puts my monthly total at 5.41".

Low of 62 last night and 56 Friday night. Good stuff. Now we heat up again for a bit.

Are you kidding me with these showers and clouds Models have been horrendous 24-48 hours out and mets not much better

Now we embrace six months of cool rain, mist and fog with occasional breaks of torch..fun times lay ahead!

The UK has been hinting at this system forming in front of Dolly along the SE coast. It was kind of a mystery until now but check out this satellite presentation. Looks like it was on to something.

Back into the 90s all week. Mid to upper for some of it.

Morning clouds/rain could certainly a bit of a damper on Tuesday but nonetheless the environment will be supportive so just have to see what kind of recovery can occur. Potential will be NY/PA/western MA/western CT. Unless of course the warm front can sneak a bit farther northeast but the Tuesday AM stuff probably negates that as well.

From April through Yesterday most locations are not too far from normal rainfall for the spring and summer to date.