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My first post in this thread is a reminder this is still 4-5 days away. But no one should be shocked if another nice setup 4-5 days out turns to strung out/suppressed garbage. I’m done investing in these until we get some consistency within 100 hours.

Avoiding the glue factory

He was the only one. Well Steve D slso.

ICON, GFS and CMC all dropped a big fat turd tonight. Amazing how quickly everything was coming together early today and even more quickly how things have soured tonight. Maybe they come back? One thing I've noticed - there's an additional piece of energy showing up tonight that swings through early Saturday. If that comes to fruition it's lights out. We won't have the separation needed for any trailing energy to come up and get us as the flow dampens out behind the Saturday thing.

All the models wobble back and forth 4-5 days ahead of storm. Does nobody remember multiple global models taking Boxing Day out to sea 2-4 days prior to the event? WX/PT

Lee Goldberg didn't sound optimistic about a big snowstorm at all today.

2/18 00z GGEM also a miss

This system needs to die

Well @psuhoffman, it may snow on the last week of February every now and then...but unfortunately, the secs/mecs/hecs last week of Feb barrier remains undefeated...(not talking about March, of course)

The one thing I will say is that the tellies dont scream a major snowstorm with a positive NAO and negative PNA. There is some left over blocking with a decaying block and a brief pna spike but not sure if its enough. The euro is most likely seeing that.

No separation. Not going to get a Sunday storm when Saturday has one. When we are at a crossroads…..

Over

Yes a lot. You get too caught up in a couple of operational runs and pretty snow maps. There's so much more to forecasting than that. Talk less and listen more and some day you may be a positive force contribution wise here.

So you’re so confident this is definitely over?.

The one thing I will say is that the tellies dont scream a major snowstorm with a positive NAO and negative PNA. There is some left over blocking with a decaying block and a brief pna spike but not sure if its enough. The euro is most likely seeing that.

This is the system I have the most confidence in for the WOR crowd in SNE.

I'll keep looking until Thursday or Friday. CMC looks like crap too btw

This post aged like milk

Eh, never know, maybe the Euro is just jaded during a great winter and will come around.

Mother nature doesn't care about me you the media Twitter nothing lol. That's so silly to say. Just cant be to invested outside 3 days. People buy into the hype that's all they're doing. Exposure

We get a little rain.

Sometimes the cosmic butt-plug is sense enough.

It's actually an increasingly favorable pattern for a storm. Amplification of the jet is increasing and things are slowing down just a little. That's as good as it gets going towards March & April. And there's still plenty of cold air to work with though I do think we will likely have a warmer stretch at some point soon. The cold is still cold enough. WX/PT

Thermals? There isn’t even a storm

why must it be that way, though? it doesn’t make actual scientific sense. it’s just a big cosmic middle finger