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Afternoon AFD from LWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a mention of possible gale conditions over the lower Chesapeake Bay on Sunday as a result of passing remnants of Hurricane Isaias. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy conditions Sunday into Sunday night. - 2) No hazardous weather expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy conditions Sunday into Sunday night. The pattern remains quiet through the first half of the weekend as surface high pressure strengthens over the northeastern U.S. However, this lengthy period of tranquil weather will come to an end as this ridge retreats northward ahead of Isaias. Until then, a thick area of high cirrus should continue to track poleward. Daily highs will be in the low/mid 70s, with 60s across mountain locations. The main weather impact to the region over the next week is going to be from the remnants of what is now Hurricane Isaias (Cat 3 strength). Model guidance is in generally good agreement that Hurricane Isaias` surface low weakens and broadens as the system moves into the TN Valley Saturday night into Sunday. The mid- level circulation amplifies and becomes a strong cutoff low over KY/TN that moves slowly east across the Mid- Atlantic Sunday into Monday. Periods of rain are likely across the area at times Saturday evening through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected across the area. Higher rain totals are certainly possible, but will depend on a few other smaller scale features. Tropical moisture surges north into our area Saturday night into Sunday, with the highest PWAT values at or above 2" (most likely east of the Blue Ridge). While the main cutoff low associated with the remnants of Isaias remain west of the Appalachians on Saturday, expect light rain to move in from south to north in the evening. Forcing for ascent increases Saturday night, and especially Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as mid-level heights fall with the approach of the cutoff low. There is going to be enhanced low-level convergence somewhere over the region as the surface high to the east and cutoff low to the west interact. Easterly flow into the Blue Ridge could also produce enhanced rain amounts due to orographic effects. Additionally, an inverted trough or wave of low pressure tries to develop in lee of the Appalachians Sunday as it crosses Virginia to the Delmarva. Uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution and timing of these features, which will ultimately determine where / if any locally heavy rain occurs. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple of days. No Flood Watches are planned at this time as we are still over 48 hours from the main slug of rain. Additionally, there is a non-zero risk of isolated tornadoes on Sunday. These post-tropical environments can be tricky as low- level spin ups do occur. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Day 3 Marginal Risk area. It is going to be noticeably breezy, especially in the mountains where winds begin to pick up Saturday evening. The strongest winds are most likely on Sunday. The current forecast for peak wind gusts is 30-40 mph in the Alleghenies and 20-30 mph elsewhere. Conditions dry out Monday morning into Monday afternoon as the remnants of Isaias push offshore. Looking at mostly mild temperatures for most of next week. A series of cold fronts cross the region during the middle to late part of next week as the synoptic pattern becomes more active. Aside from mountain rain showers, most of the area looks to remain dry. The strongest cold front arrives late next week, possibly bringing rain and colder air behind it.

Even as far removed from the hurricane. The FL peninsula is prone to quick spin-ups as the feeder band traverses inland areas.

Thanks a nice bit of rain. Nothing too crazy.

Stay safe down there Don. We're thinking about you from WNC.

Not that it is going to make a huge difference but you can clearly see the western edges of the circulation starting to "flatten" as shear is now starting to take hold.

There's not enough time for substantial weakening.

GSP put out a nicely done informative discussion late this afternoon to their credit. It offered a lot of details regarding their reasoning and is worth the read.

Good to hear! Take it easy, Sunday will be rain throughout the day enjoy some Football.

Conditions are rapidly deteriorating in Wright Fl as the northern eyewall bears down. TS sustained with gusts over 50 ATM. .

Starting to see multiple tornados around the Nature Coast https://radar.weather.gov/station/KTLH/standard

Pensacola Naval Air Station gust to 51mph

Expected. I have Atlanta in the survivor pool this week.

Sunday’s going to be wet. Pretty much 1-2 inches region wide

Temps near coast in upper 60s. That's pretty stable for hurricane. Cool and much drier air. May see quite a bit of weakening before it fully comes on shore

To 75 before the high clouds moved in

If it rains Sunday, it will be 35 out of 41 weekends with measurable rain/snow/hail/ash/apocalypse since January at the EWR reporting station.

While he didn't predict this storm, per se, about a week ago, Greg Postel on TWC had a great discussion about how the huge frontal system that was progged to sweep through the SE US last weekend would stall over the very warm GOM and that pressures and low shear looked favorable for tropical development this week.

CWOP KFLPENSA690 Summary High Low Average Total Temperature 78.2°F 69.8°F 73.9°F — Dew Point 73.1°F 67.7°F 70.8°F — Humidity 98% 82% 90.1% — Precipitation Rate 0.14in/hr — 0.08in/hr — Precipitation Accumulation — — — 0.39in* Wind Speed 68.5mph 5.6mph 25mph — Wind Gust 79mph 7.4mph 29.1mph — Wind Direction — — ENE — Pressure 29.38in 29.1in — As for timing... ahead of scheduled LF

What does total rainfall look like.on the 12z euro?