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No doubt! Tom is pretty conservative especially more so than he was years ago. Acknowledging there could be 15 means he confident for a little over 72 hours out.

Looking fwd to it!

Might’ve spoken too soon

Best wishes and safe travels!

Wow, 18z and pretty much every global model is still giving us double digits.

Not raining here. It'll be fine.

Lots of sleet.

Flurries in JC.

12z GFS total Kuchera till Feb 4 was entertaining. 

yup see what the Euro does in about 30 minutes

@mappy Tom T just said “low end” 5”, “high end” 15”, “most likely” 8-12”. Seems solid to me.

Hey you can put me as tentative for now. Will try my best to make it, will depend on my workload.

It will be interesting to see if the models change any once more data from aircraft has been ingested into it mainly the handle of Baja and then northern stream

The I-85 corridor would be shut down for three weeks.

For clarity sake Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22) There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21). From MA forum. Game time tonight. We should get a real sense if there is a north trend or this was just a blip

Hey I resemble that remark!!! Just kidding. But seriously, yeah...I am surprised at least some of that crap wasn't moderated out of there. But maybe it's not technically yet a full-on "storm mode".

18z GFSes (total qpf) -

12z brought sleet to NYC and coast

That’s right and they don’t work and would be another terrible model miss if we turn into that . 1040 highs are hard to eradicate and this does not look like a deep low. We need it to just move east and let the waa into this cold air. I don’t care if a low ever forms on the coast but we certainly can’t have one at the PA/WV border

I went and grabbed some staple items from the store this evening. It wasn't that crowded, but you can tell people have already started to raid the shelves. Snack aisles definitely hit the hardest, so get your cheezits while you still can. I was also trying to buy for family that'll be coming to take care of our two kids while the 3rd makes his arrival. Kinda hard to shop for a snowstorm and for random family cooking. Hopefully my kids don't get tired of Mac n cheese, ground beef, and cereal

you have my attention

Pretty sure I just had a sleet/ rain mix @John1122 I think it was one of those onset mix precip type deals that changes to rain.

I guess the summary for HH GFS.... not gonna cut it

Hope you guys can get more folks together! I have dance dad duty on Thursdays or else I'd try to make it...

Agree. Want some interaction but not a full phase- keep the flow flattish and cold.