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These storms tend to surprise you when they form under the conditions highlighted in your post. Would not be the first time a system south of the azores was dismissed only to pop an eye and surprise everyone. Agreed on the upgrade here, would almost have to acquire the eye for an upgrade as it is going to be extremely challenging to get a well timed ASCAT this afternoon when it peaks

Just picked up a quick .22 with that line coming through central/northern MD

A couple hundredths to kick off the great late September 2026 rain week. Best part of that band missed me to the north by walking distance.

Fay is perfectly located in a bubble of favorablility surrounded by chaos. If it's going to make a run at hurricane intensity, it needs to do it fast. It's going to get decapitated on Monday. How much strengthening it can do by tonight remains to be seen, but convection continues to blossom, and the small vortex looks nice and stacked with the low-level and mid-level circulations for now. Baroclinic enhancement combined with warm SSTs and a cold-pool aloft would support a short period of rapid intensification if encroaching shear and dry air can hold off until Monday morning. The limited potential is there to end the hurricane drought, but Fay needs to do its thing pretty much immediately. Being in the middle of nowhere without recon to sample and only ASCAT means we will literally need to see an eye form most likely to increase the odds of an upgrade. Being such a tiny vortex, remote sensing techniques might just as well miss / fail to detect any short-lived wind intensity estimate around its tiny core to support a Category 1. EDIT: I flirted with making a thread, but Fay is no threat to land and will dissipate within a few days. Other than the meteorological significance for the 2026 season, not much else discussion-wise would matter. We may as well just leave Fay's discussion in the main thread here for that purpose alone.

Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (1983) NYC: 93 (1983) LGA: 90 (1983) JFK: 85 (1997) Lows: EWR: 44 (1979) NYC: 44 (1993) LGA: 46 (1979) JFK: 41 (1979) Historical: 1845 - A tornado traveled 275 miles across Lake Ontario, New York and Lake Champlain. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1909 - A large and deadly Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana during the late evening hours. The states of Louisiana and Mississippi showed catastrophic damage resulting in 371 deaths and $265 million in damage 1909: A large and deadly Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana during the late evening hours. The states of Louisiana and Mississippi showed catastrophic damage resulting in 371 deaths and $265 million in damage (2010 USD). 1926 - A hurricane which hit Miami, FL, on the 18th, pounded Pensacola with wind gusts to 152 mph. Winds raged in excess of 100 mph for four hours, and above 75 mph for 20 hours. (The Weather Channel) 1953: A strong upper level ridge was responsible for record highs across Texas & parts of Arizona. Midland set their all-time September record high with 107°. Other daily record highs included: Phoenix, AZ: 105°-Tied, Wichita Falls, TX: 103°, Dallas, TX: 102°, Dallas (DFW), TX: 102°, San Angelo, TX: 102°, Abilene, TX: 101°-Tied and Waco, TX: 100°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961: Hurricane Esther, a Category 4 storm off of Cape Hatteras, NC began to slow down as it moved north-northeast well off the Jersey shore. The storm continued to weaken as it did a 5 day loop south of Cape Cod, MA then moved across Cape Cod and into Maine on the 26th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1967 - Hurricane Beulah moved into South Texas, and torrential rains from the hurricane turned the rich agricultural areas of South Texas into a large lake. Hurricane Beulah also spawned a record 115 tornadoes. (David Ludlum) 1969: On this date through the 23rd, heavy rain over several days brought extensive flooding to the Apalachicola River at Quincy, Havana, and Blountstown; and much of Franklin, Gadsden, Leon, Calhoun and Quincy Counties in the Florida panhandle. Havana 23.42", Quincy reported 18.41" of rain and Blountstown 10.41". Several funnel clouds and waterspouts were reported from northwest Florida to the Keys on the 22nd and 23rd. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972: Downpour in Duluth, MN with 5.50 inches of rain falling in ten hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1980: Much of northwest Iowa received violent severe weather. In O'Brien, Clay, Monona, Crawford and Buena Vista counties, high winds and hail pounded crops and buildings. Winds of 70 to 75 mph blew trees down on power lines, houses and cars. Hail up to the size of baseballs severely damaged crops with over $10 million dollars in losses. In Ricketts, every north and west window was broken from the hail. The strong winds destroyed many farm structures in these counties. In addition, a strong tornado touched down in Spencer completely leveling several metal warehouse buildings in an industrial park. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1983 - The temperature at West Yellowstone MT plunged to six degrees below zero, while the temperature at San Francisco CA soared to 94 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1986: A slow moving quasi-stationary front produced flash flooding occurred in parts of central Illinois, primarily from near Peoria and Lincoln eastward to Bloomington, as rainfall amounts ranged from 3 to 7 inches. Bloomington reported 7.12 inches in 4 hours during the overnight, causing significant flooding. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma and west Texas. In Oklahoma, a thunderstorm at Seiling produced three inches of rain in one hour, golf ball size hail, and wind gusts to 60 mph which collapsed a tent at the state fair injuring nine persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in central Wyoming, and snow in some of the higher elevations. Casper WY reported 1.75 inches of rain in 24 hours, and a thunderstorm north of the Wild Horse Reservoir produced 1.90 inches of rain in just forty minutes. 1989 - Hugo jilted Iris. Hurricane Hugo churned toward the South Atlantic Coast, gradually regaining strength along the way. Tropical Storm Iris got too close to Hugo, and began to weaken. A cold front brought strong and gusty winds to the Great Basin and the Southern Plateau Region, with wind gusts to 44 mph reported at Kingman AZ. (The National Weather Summary) 1995: A strong late summer storm brought the season’s first snow to parts of the Rockies. Denver, CO reported 4 to 8 inches of heavy wet snow that damaged millions of trees and downed power lines into Boulder leaving 100,000 people without electricity. It took a week to fully restore power to all areas. Total insured losses in the Denver area was $6.5 million dollars. Record cold followed the storm as the low at Denver dropped to 27° the next morning followed by an afternoon high of 36°. Further north, 2 to 8 inches of snow was reported at Cheyenne, WY. Record cold accompanied the storm. Record lows included: Glasgow, MT: 20°, Great Falls, MT: 24°, Havre, MT: 24°, Grand Island, NE: 32° and Pueblo, CO: 32°. Viroqua, WI set their all-time record low for September with 20°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: Hurricane Georges reached its top strength of 155 mph sustained winds when it was 420 miles east of Guadeloupe early this morning; top winds were 115 miles an hour at landfall on Puerto Rico on the PM of the 21st. 28,005 homes were destroyed but only 12 deaths were reported in Puerto Rico due to preparedness. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) Georges' Track - Weather Underground (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2000: An F4 tornado devastated some of the same portions of Xenia, OH that were damaged in the April 3, 1974 twister. No tornado warning was issued when the storm struck, raising the ire of local residents. Record heat prevailed across parts of the southwest courtesy of a large upper level heat ridge. Record highs included: Death Valley, CA: 116°, Palm Springs, CA: 115°, Borrego Springs, CA: 110°, Victorville, CA: 104°, Stockton, CA: 101 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: A F2 tornado touched down WNW of Washington, IN. It destroyed/damaged several homes. The tornado lifted/tossed a vehicle 1/8th mile; the conservation officer inside survived. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2005 - Hurricane Rita tracked through the Florida Straits and just south of the Florida Keys. Winds were sustained at tropical storm force at Key West, where peak winds gusted to 76 mph.

63 / 63 clouds and some showers / light rain in areas. The start of an ugly to miserable period of 7 - 10 days of plenty of onshore mainly cloudy and cut off lows bringing mist/drizzle and possible heavier rains in the period 9/20 - 9/28 with 9/24 - 9/26 for cut off low and possible coastal storm. Beyond there overall near - above normal.

The hand we are dealt makes me want to projectile vomit, but it is what it is. Just gotta hope for one biggie this year, and then a big winter during the follow up La Niña.

41.4F this morning. Heat pump on to take the edge off. Something interesting to track...good practice for the rain storms this winter.

Bring it.

Inside is 61-62F… wife may force heat soon after another night of 30s. Put on another hoodie, babe.

My area got clobbered overnight. I got 2.75" and my part of the city was the driest. The north side got 3-4+". My September total is now close to 9", with 7" of that falling in the last five days.

Getting what feels like bonus rain this morning. Finally over an inch for the month and hoping to double it over the next few days.

Not good for the Durham Fair weekend in Connecticut. I usually root for these things but the rain really kills fair attendance. Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk

depends on how close the warm front to our south moves in our direction. Temps this morning are in the 70's south of Philly -wouldn't be surprised if there are some heavier showers along with a T-storm with elevated instability later today especially in central NJ.

3 days of trees coming down for you Days and days .

Low of 64 with very steady rain. I’m just going to get one final gauge reading tomorrow morning. Great lazy day for some football.

Yeah like a Friday night to Sunday deal. Weekend would be toast.

Is this centered on Saturday next weekend if it happens?

It would be windy, but they’ll probably be a cool wedge to stabilize the lower levels. Although if it retros far enough west that would increase winds.

Doesn’t seem like anything to look forward to inland then . Strong pressure gradient could help winds

1.93” last night. Was not expecting this much. .

6z Euro AI hooks the storm into New England

Yep that’s interesting.