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Doughts can create that kind of a feedback loop for sure.

In addition to the WWBs/westerlies we have been seeing since April, there has been a complete trade wind reversal in the equatorial PAC, at the surface and aloft, something you only see in the strongest El Niños The new DWKW that was spawned by the most recent WWB looks very impressive right now and there’s nothing to attenuate it as it moves east across the PAC, it should reach the South American coast sometime in August….I think +12 subsurface anomalies are very possible when it augments the already record warm anomalies (+9C) in the EPAC In addition to the record-breaking warmth in region 3.4, El Niño Costero continues to gain strength…. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=system&controller=embed&url=https://www.twitter.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2070732817596661833?s=46%26t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw ^Translation: “@enfenperu raises - once again - its forecast regarding the magnitude of #ElNiñoCostero. The sum of the probability of a strong or extraordinary event exceeds 50% for each month between July and March 2027. This event would point to being on the scale of 1997-98 or 1982-83. There are no others at this level of magnitude.”

This signal will only strengthen as we get closer. Many records will be shattered

Imma need your expertise to get this back online. It literally stopped connecting to wi fi and will not reconnect. Any thoughts?

"The combination of strong subsidence, lack of clouds, dry ground, and a downslope low and mid level flow - could potentially yield a near historical heat event bringing very dangerous conditions. Some guidance is now forecasting a few disturbances in the NW-N flow aloft riding into the region by Friday and Saturday the 4th. This may be enough to trigger either widely scattered or scattered (20-30 percent chance) of afternoon or early nighttime thunderstorms perhaps bringing some temporary cooling."

He’s learning from tblizz…cancel the weather you want in order to get it. Hopefully he doesn’t go adding more wives now.

This would be some serious heat if it came to pass. My point and click has 99 as the high for Thursday

How are dews looking?

Happy birthday Mappy and belated to Randy

If this verified, which it looks more and more likely, it’s going to be a potentially dangerous situation. We have several hundred thousand people coming to jones beach for the 250th special air show and fireworks. .

Note: With the expected heat coming next week. Everyone should try to take it easy and be aware of these warning signs for your health. This is not for this weekend. But maybe our area might have similar conditions later next week.

We have a get together at Hopkins Farm in Harford early afternoon, seems like it should be just scattered light stuff by then? Hoping to get lucky despite needing the rain. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Big warming north of Hawaii and with the +AMO increase off the East Coast are associated with record 100°+ heat being forecast in the East to start July. This has more in common with La Niña than a super El Niño in July. Notice how nearly all the analog dates are developing or established La Niña Summers. So while the daily PDO is closer to neutral than at this time last year, the atmospheric 500 mb pattern more resembles La Niña over North America.

.59" 1-3 am. 12 reports in Augusta range from 0.00 to 1.00".

PDO still drifting higher regardless and contrary to last year's drop at this point.

Just put my T in CoCoRaHS for the overnight .5 -.75” that was expected 24 hours ago. The participation trophy is that I am getting recordable rains now from a passing shower.

The tomato plants are on the edge of being too wet. I didn't give them too much water when I was irrigating.

Happy Birthday, Mappy!

We knew back in May when NJ hit 100° that we were on a much warmer summer super El Niño track than what we have seen before. The floor now looks like 102°-104° at the usual warm spots as the GFS and CMC have. The Euro is really going bonkers over 105°+. This is about as warm as we have seen all 3 major models go within a 7 day forecast.

Hopefully not your tomatoes. The radar is actually starting to fill in and develop some taller echoes at the moment. Hopefully we can get some of those into our area today.

It's the same game for the past 3 years. We're not getting anything besides a few sprinkles today. The only story in town is the extreme heatwave and the drought.

Happy birthday, @mappy!!! Have a fantastic day!

Someone cancelled summer last week . Now who was it ?

Yes I agree while some of us had good rains this week (i had 1.37 this week) others missed out and are very dry, I started irrigating, pumping water out of the creek last Friday for our garden on a sprinkler system (more like a truck patch). Now that I got 1.37 rain this week and irrigating, my garden is actually too wet now at places.

I heard the rain on my roof for 15 seconds!