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Yeah thinking Lenawee, Monroe, and Wayne should go Warning

27 with light snow in Soddy Daisy .

Chris Justus with WYFF is live now on YouTube.

2.5 was my low.

Had some light snow here briefly.

Typically the sleet line will move up from the southwest rather than south or southeast

RAP looks colder than the HRRR with some snow and sleet in northern NC.

Its just a huge step back from the 6z. But a lot actually. Its not that its bad, its that the model has changed significantly.

I love when you talk dirty

Because the algorithm used to calculate the kuchera ratio is often too bullish. Its an extremely fluid calculation. While the ratio only takes temperature into account there are numerous other factors which have significant effect on the final ratio. Doesnt account for Humidity aloft, Dendritic growth, compaction and multiple other factors

-12.1° and now up to -10°.

My last bill wasn't too bad. I think just $50 more compared to some really high bills people are getting. We are on oil heat which helps offset BGE bill but already had too fill up twice this winter.

Well folks, when you're right 52% of the time....Smooth Jimmy Apollo. That bit cracked me up over 30 years ago and still gets me now.

Despite what seemed like a lengthy funeral oration for a storm that had yet to arrive following the 1/24 6z NAM and GFS runs, things still seem reasonably on course for a significant snowfall across the New York City region. 1) The models have been shifting about. One shouldn't focus only on the best or worst models. 2) The UKMET has slowly started paring back its precipitation hole. Some have affectionately nicknamed it "Crazy Uncle" for its occasional eccentricities. The 1/24 0z ECMWF improved over the 1/23 12z run. 3) 700 mb frontogenic forcing looks to be explosive for three and maybe four hours at a time when snow growth will be ideal. Four hours of 1"-2" per hour snowfall rates would yield 4"-8"; 0.60" QPF at 12:1-13:1 ratios would yield 7.2"-7.8". Take the low figures and that's probably the floor. Overall, New York City and nearby areas remain in line for 6"-12" of snow and sleet. Areas to the south and east of New York City could see 4"-8" amounts (even farther south beyond the New York City area, places like Atlantic City should see 3"-6"). General 12"-18" amounts are likely well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania (Pike County, Lackawanna County), Orange County, Dutchess County, and Sussex County.

They are slowly stepping down their totals.

...still strong CAD signal representation this hour.

Thought we weren't getting anything till like 7pm, yet my radar is showing snow in less than an hr from now? What am I missing?

Hrrr gonna savage

you win. i saw 6

Ok after analyzing the 6z euro further it looks like this is approx how much precip falls before the flip… https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2026012406&fh=39 If so, then that would actually be a legitimate pre-sleet thump imby. Surface temps in the mid teens as well.

DFW reporting "heavy ice pellets" - not sure I've seen that one

sure is. Notable trend from morning runs has been to load up front end accums.

HRRR Fwiw does this - just another piece of guidance to explore. Out of the more useful range.

I agree with 1-

Good way to learn about different snow situations for your location is to take good measurements and do core samples melt to get the LE then do the math for the ratios.