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Low 33

This is not going to get the job done: Cluster analysis of the leading two solutions from the earlier 12z guidance is lining up with the trend within 18z ensemble guidance favoring a northeast lift of low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region. If this trend continues and remains void the splitting mid/upper-lvl low scenario, forcing for ascent for meaningful precipitation may be extremely limited over the Carolinas. These solutions still do produce light rain totals over the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, but reasonable high-end amounts struggle to exceed 0.5" in 24 hours for the northern/eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain where moderate to extreme drought persists.

It’s the softball season that never ends. Had playoffs last night, we came in as 4 out of 5 (lol). Beat team 5, then went on to beat team 1 and now play in the championship game 11/13!

Low of 41. Gorgeous morning on the deck with coffee in hand.

As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run @donsutherland1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +3.5 +2.7 +2.2 +5.3 +2.0 +0.9 +2.7 +0.2 +3.0

Still growing up here in the highlands. Growing Season lives on....may pick some veggies off plants, in late Nov, for Turkey Dinner. (Kidding..sort of)

Aren't they being considered as a future Winter Olympics host?

_ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.2 +2.0 +2.1 +2.0 +1.4 +1.4 +2.0 +1.2 +1.1

It's already dry here, as I caught only 1.22" in October, with half of that amount coming on October 1st. We could once again be completely parched come spring.

Cold start, mild middle, cold end Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Really curious how the ENSO would have been back in the Pangea years... Hotter planet with no ice caps Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Nothing wrong with that…I’ll take some warmth and some cool, and some rain…sign me up.

38.6 this morning. Colder spot in the area.

It does look a bit more active starting end of next week at least. And alternating periods of warmer and cooler but likely AN as a whole through mid Novie.

Is there some sort of new skill style on grass?

Ski Ward in Shrewsbury became the first ski area in North America to open for skiing last weekend. might be their best conditions of the season

Red sky this morning.

The 75° at JFK was the 3rd warmest for October 30th. Data for October 30 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1961-10-30 79 54 0.10 0.0 0 1950-10-30 77 55 M M M 2026-10-30 75 52 0.00 M M 2024-10-30 73 56 0.00 0.0 0 2016-10-30 73 56 0.15 0.0 0 1971-10-30 72 52 0.00 0.0 0 1994-10-30 70 51 0.00 0.0 0