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What would it take for this to become real to most? This thing isn’t that long out. It’s in midrange. EURO/GFS is warning level snows for many in this target area. Seeing the EURO jump up like that was awesome. Other than the GFS holding at 18z. What would others like to see latch on next

your NWS comes outta CTP..... nuff said???

Just canceling the remainder and let's see what comes lol

The 12Z EPS and 12 GEFS are a bit snowier than previous runs, while the 12Z GEPS is less snowier and the 12Z AIFS is much snowier, so no idea what you're talking about. And then there's the monster GFS, which we all know is likely a fantasy.

That is a nice step towards something. Now 2 majors are showing something and CMC looks like it something wants to pop, but just fizzes out Thur/Fri and waits for sunday to play. Icon is close miss for thursday as NS lags too far behind SS.

Yes as depicted the low would have to be east of our longitude before snow will fall

Not sure this makes much sense, but hey, congrats on your revelation.

Side note...Had no idea Cranky onTwitter had rebranded himself to ContentWeatherGuy a few years ago, lolol

I wish your statement didnt have as much truth to it....but....it sure can goof em up. Some of the other majors are showing close misses, and in truth wouldnt take too much to get us into something. Even a couple advisory style events would make many of us happy, especially if we can string a few together in a short timeframe. Snow on snow is my top bar for my love of winter.

The top CIPS analog from the 12z GFS is 1996 lol. No I'm not forecasting or even implying this could reach to that level.

I posted the GFS as it was showing this days ago. The trough is wide and positive tilted and the L goes off the NC coast after giving them some snow.

Definitely first test for our area with the AIFS OP...interesting it has been slowly increasing the totals across the eastern valley for the last several runs.

Noones taking anything serious...yet. Were just having some fun seeing the potential coming up. I know he's taken some pops on the chops for his posting of maps and peeps taking it to heart. Thats all. Nothing more.

3rd day in a row of >50F. Torch.

And then you have what is unresolved about the late-week storm before it. Gotta imagine we won't know about this one until we get closer to that one!

CMC/UKMET and all the ensembles and Ai don't think much about next week Go with the drought solution if we get a storm it will be 3-6" which isn't bad

Really no misses in those clusters...except the cutters! lol

Some fun ensemble members from the AIFS EPS and GEFS. BTW, the GEFS has been spitting out big dogs for about 3 runs - holy moly.

The eps definitely trended towards a more amplified solution did it not?

Going to be a fun night at solider field with flakes flying!

Not sure I've ever seen a larger discrepancy between an Op and its ensemble mean (although the Op posted here is Kuchera, so it's likely inflated).

I was referring to the snowfall amounts. I think you would agree that temps were not 60 during the event.

Board wide/state wide snow paste is all we need!!!!!! Half of what the gfs showed with those cold temps. Yep I approve. Make it happen! Forgive me gfs for all those bad things I said about you in the past.

Here you go again with “trending” like you always do. If we listened to you, we’d have 150 inches of snow by now. What I posted is 100% correct. The new EPS, GEFS, GEPS and EURO AI runs speak for themselves. I encourage everyone to go look at all the snow means on those model runs at 10:1 ratios

Wow. Impressive. I am by IAD right now.