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Doubt they would do a special for a PTC. Could get a hint that one is coming with the update at 7 and going red.

Nice storm in Lanco. .

Pretty impressive lightning show and storm. Rain still coming down, but at .87 now, temp down to 72.

Few sprinkles between 5 and 6 pm here, Clifton Forge just 4 miles to my east got a decent amount.

I’ve learned to trust the crew at the NHC about jumping the gun. That said I’m not calling for it, but all the visuals & ascat passes say that they could issue a special for PTC. Nice diurnal blow up starting now. .

Do you guys see a lot of the maple trees with black or brown spots on the leaves? For my area, the last 2-3 years, there have been a lot of the black spots on silver maple and Norway maple leaves towards the end of the year. I think it's mold. I don't know how widespread it is. Some maples are losing leaves now, but, of course, not with color.

Os got the sweep. Gunnar back to being Gunnar? See what it gives.

Won’t be holding breath

NHC is still old school and likes the 10 pm news cycle on a Sunday night so I'd be surprised if they didn't designate a PTC or even straight to depression at 10. Weekday and this might have been a PTC at 5, although it still seemed a little early this afternoon with the lack of storms around the center.

I could see pre dawn Thursday for sure having storms, but they’ll be some around Tuesday morning

Slow season is getting to you I see....

I’ve only seen a handful here over the last few years, nothing outrageous. They do have a preference for certain species. https://www.umass.edu/agriculture-food-environment/landscape/fact-sheets/spotted-lanternfly-management

Picked up 0.15” from that blob. Mowed yesterday, walked out this morning and it looked like the lawn ready for another mow.

Twitter folks like it a lot. Pretty surprised that this doesn’t have a PTC designation. Not sure what else it would be for other than to use it for a potential storm developing that will be surely impacting land which needs a sexier name than “97L” to grab media attention.

Like I have been saying, you need to take that "SevereweatherEurpe" or whatever it is with a grain of salt....I picked apart his arguments for a neg NAO season in my July blog, as his stuff is full of half-truths. He doesn't lie, but he cherry picks data and doesn't tell you the whole story. Funny how it doesn't look as favorable for an NAO winter now a month later.

Dried up on my doorstep and blew up east of 81. Like clockwork.

LOL, 15% chance of rain and we have 1.75" so far for today and it's still raining albeit lightly. That puts me at 7.16" so far this month.

Not boring rains . I mean severe / storm

Nickles and dimes just got clipped for 0.25

For both? I dont think so.

I agree with them that recent winters have been mostly underwhelming, but disagree with the downplaying of last winter. Climate change is real, it’s happening, and I tend to align with the people who are arguing that it’s playing a significant role in the past decade being mostly underwhelming. That being said, I was very happy with last winter. I’m also very skeptical of the idea that last winter was supposed to be historic like 95-96 or 14-15 or 10-11 and CC robbed us. The reason last winter was not quite as good as those winters is it was too dry for record breaking snows, I’d be more inclined to blame CC if it was too warm with multiple benchmark storms being say 35-36 and rain. The long term trend with CC is warm and wet, and last winter was drier than average. I do think there were several winters this past decade where I suspect CC boned my area some, but do not think last winter is a good example of that. If anything, a redux of last winter in say the 1970s climate may have been worse because it may have just been colder and drier rather than snowier. The longwave pattern simply was less favorable than those record breaking winters for east coast cyclogenesis. I’m just glad things came together well enough to give me the best winter since 14-15 in my area.

for this forum: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/14-centralwestern-states/