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18z gfs and gfs ai both upgraded to light rain

And guess which one will be right in the end?

Per Eric Webb’s table, 1925-6 trimonthlies peaked at +1.3.

Ah, so the new UKMET. I will be sure to mostly ignore it.

it's done. 5 months of autumn incoming

Definitely warm this evening feels good. I'm in no rush for the cold.

DVN issued a flood watch for tonight, but models have shifted south again (has been recent theme). I may get little or even nothing.

89 for the high. Quite gross. I need rain desperately bad. My garden is brown.

I never heard of the authors/site, but 40/70 was pretty critical of them over in the New England forums winter thread.

Yes I posted a Tweet in another thread but cannot find it. The Canadian has definitely seen an upgrade in its 500mb verification scores of late.

Topped out at 80F. Felt warm comparatively to what we just had.

Today seems to be one of the bigger monsoon (southwesterly) rainstorms for Arizona, associated with the trough on the West Coast.

Better rain chances. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

^Look at all that water. Good sign for the Winter probably if it gets cold enough.

The GFS is useless, but yeah, that’s basics my peak season forecast. I’m out on a limb with 3 H 1 MH but I think the windows will open. First flakes at SLK? We kicked things off on 10/31 last year and were off to the races not too long after.

summer is over no more hot weather..

The 12z gfs also has a major hurricane spin around in the BoC for a week before heading north toward Texas...

Euro looks really nice in the extended range but we've seen this before.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-polar-vortex-emerging-winter-2026-2027-disruption-forecast-stratospheric-warming-trend-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Its a start

If the AO is persistently negative, it seems to correlate to at least some -NAO episodes, esp in a Nino. Just going on memory/intuition. They do seem to jibe more times than not. Ofc 2009-10 is the benchmark, but this Nino is not going to be that. Just need a 2 week period where everything aligns like Jan 2016.

I recently pulled the seasonal stats for Chicago during past strong and super El Niño episodes. Dating back to 1950, there have been seven seasons that have featured an El Niño of strong to super magnitude. To shed a full light on the situation, I pulled stats both met winter (DJF) and the full October–April snowfall season. The clearest signal is snowfall. Every one of the seven strong/super El Niño seasons featured below normal snowfall during both the DJF and October–April periods. In several of those seasons, snowfall was significantly below average. When it comes to precip, it's more of a mixed signal. Both the DJF and October–April periods feature a mix of very wet, near-average and dry seasons. Temps lean warmer, particularly during met winter. DJF temps ranged from slightly below normal to well above normal, with warmer outcomes more common. During the longer span October–April periods there is more variability, with most seasons within +/- 1° of average, while a couple were well above average. ...Chicago Strong/Super El Nino Seasons... October-April Average Temp: 38.4° October-April Average Snowfall: 38.4" October-April Average Precipitation: 18.12" Met Winter (DJF) Average Temperature: 28.2° Met Winter (DJF) Average Snowfall: 29.6" Met Winter (DJF) Average Precipitation: 6.07" ............................................................. 2015-16 Season (Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 40.6° (+2.2°) Oct-April Snowfall: 31.2" (-7.2") Oct-April Precip: 19.80" (+1.68") DJF Avg Temp: 31.4° (+3.2°) DJF Snowfall: 16.3" (-13.3") DJF Precip: 6.94" (+0.87") 1997-98 Season (Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 39.7° (+1.3°) Oct-April Snowfall: 10.4" (-28.0") Oct-April Precip: 17.93" (-0.19") DJF Avg Temp: 33.2° (+5.0°) DJF Snowfall: 7.1" (-22.5") DJF Precip: 5.87" (-0.20") 1991-92 Season (Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.6° (-0.8°) Oct-April Snowfall: 28.4" (-10.0") Oct-April Precip: 19.80" (+1.68") DJF Avg Temp: 30.5° (+2.3°) DJF Snowfall: 14.5" (-15.1") DJF Precip: 3.97" (-2.10") 1982-83 Season (Record Super El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 38.0° (-0.4°) Oct-April Snowfall: 26.6" (-11.8") Oct-April Precip: 31.36" (+13.24") DJF Avg Temp: 30.9° (+2.7°) DJF Snowfall: 16.0" (-13.6") DJF Precip: 11.28" (+5.21") 1972-73 Season (Strong El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.9° (-0.5°) Oct-April Snowfall: 32.9" (-5.5") Oct-April Precip: 24.38" (+6.26") DJF Avg Temp: 28.0° (-0.2°) DJF Snowfall: 20.0" (-9.6") DJF Precip: 7.52" (+1.45") 1965-66 Season (Strong El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 38.1° (-0.3°) Oct-April Snowfall: 24.7" (-13.7") Oct-April Precip: 17.19" (-0.93") DJF Avg Temp: 27.5° (-0.7°) DJF Snowfall: 20.9" (-8.7") DJF Precip: 7.32" (+1.25") 1957-58 Season (Strong El Nino) Oct-April Avg Temp: 37.2° (-1.2°) Oct-April Snowfall: 20.0" (-18.4") Oct-April Precip: 11.24" (-6.88") DJF Avg Temp: 26.9° (+1.3°) DJF Snowfall: 16.2" (-13.4") DJF Precip: 3.40" (-2.67")