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We can't underestimate the WDI. Sometimes it just happens. It's been several years since I've broken the 20" mark for a season. That's nuts where I'm located at the base of the Catoctins at over 750ft in elevation. Some were from just dreg winters and some was just bad luck. The WDI is running pretty high.

61 / 39 great fall day

DCA's heat island has kept increasing. Their last subfreezing temp in October was in 1992; before that you have to go back to the famously cold October 1976, the prequel to the brutal winter of 1977.

Was that an intensification of 50 kt to 120kt in 24 hours? Or am I wrong?

Add "thread the needle" and you know it's going to suck.

That's what I'm thinking and why I think RI halted for now. This would be bad timing for EWRC because it would have time to intensify again before landfall and expand the wind field.

I think this would actually be bad timing for an ERC. If anything, you want it close enough to landfall that it can’t rebound from its peak. A cycle now would just expand the wind field and effectively give Melissa 24 hours to potentially RI again. Note how the 06z HAFS both intensify upon final approach.

Could be the start of an EWRC

Bookmarking this for reference. Boy, what I'd give for this look in a couple months!

Yeah, I hate to see the “we need major changes” and “this run’s not going to get it done” posts in DJF.

Mid 50s in the valley already. Even have the windows open while I vacuum.

At a 40th party now but I will get a tracker thread going for Thursday-Friday. Moderate impact 12 hour event 1-3 inches, all the other parameters mentioned earlier today. I just need computer time at home to phrase carefully. Should see the thread at 6pm. Have seen 12z/26 gfs and cmc ops. remember this is D5. Lots can go awry so let’s be a little cautious on anticipating too much wind and rain.

We have seen Caleb Williams cry. Raven's defense needs to make him want to cry today. Let him be comfortable in the pocket, and he has the arm talent to make you pay.

0.0% chance of new england impacts.

I believe in the WDI. The PDO? Eh, just hope for less hostility, which it seems to be trending towards. Kind of aligns historically- a weak cold ENSO should correlate to a weakly negative PDO. Bottom line is if we have periods with a +PNA and/or -EPO, and get a little help in the NA, we should have cold shots with storm chances. The rest is luck with timing waves, as always.

Wouldn't a scenario like that be more likely for Philly.to NE though? Hard to see us getting warning snowfall from a coastal in a nina. I mean the same dynamic is at play each time, isn't it?

I think I can speak for everyone when I say I’d rather have my Christmas tree and all the presents catch fire than watch @ORH_wxman chime in a tracking thread with “we need major changes”.

Noticed that, interesting indeed. I think sometimes when the inversions are quite shallow that I sit juuuuust above them at my new location. I say “new” even though we’ve been here going on three years ha, but our last place sat about 100’ lower and I got noticeably colder lows over there.

Lots of cooling near Japen of late.

Here's a link: www.jamstec.go.jp/virtualearth/general/en/graph_SINTEX.html#emi

Could be a little bit of upwelling too. She's been crawling along

Hi Paul. We look at all the temperature data we have access to and based on that, the zone/county has to have half or more coverage of temperatures at or below 32F to end the growing season. The growing season is also ended if it is two weeks beyond the median first Fall freeze date and no freeze has occurred. Little plant growth can be expected beyond that date.

Contest scoring for Current Count of 13 5 4 and Scores after potential storm 14 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ errors to date __ points deducted _ TOTAL SCORE Rank _FORECASTER (order of entry)_______TS _ H _ M _ errors (scoring) _ 13 5 4 (alt 14 5 4, 14 6 4, 14 6 5) _01 __ Retrobuc (11) __________________________1 __ 1 _ 1 ___-0.5_ -1 _ -1 ____97.5 _ (98, 99, 97) _02 __ StormchaserChuck (23) ______________0 __ 2 _ 0 ___ 0 __-3 _ 0 ___ 97 __ (96.5, 98.5, 97.5) _03 __ cardinalland (14) _____________________ 2 __ 1 _ 1 ___-1.5 _-1 _-1 ____ 96.5 _ (97.5, 98.5, 96.5) _04 __ vpbob21 (19) __________________________2 __ 2 _ 0___-1.5_-3_ 0 _____95.5 _ (96.5, 98.5, 97.5) _05 __ ineedsnow (2) ________________________ 2 __ 2 _ 1___-1.5_-3 _-1 ____ 94.5 _ (95.5, 97.5, 95.5) _06 __ Hotair (26) ____________________________ 2 __ 1 _ 2 __ -1.5 _-1 _-3 ___ 94.5 (93, 91, 88) _07 __ LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ______________ 1 __ 3 _ 0 ___-0.5_ -6 _0 ___ 93.5 _ (94, 97, 96) _08 __ Newman (15) _________________________ 3 __ 2 _ 1___ -3 _-3 _-1 _____ 93 _ (94.5, 96.5, 94.5) _09 __ cnimbus (6) __________________________ 4 __ 2 _ 0___ -5_ -3 _ 0 _____92 _ (94, 96, 95) _10 __ FPizz (9) ______________________________ 4 __ 2 _ 0___ -5_ -3 _ 0 _____92 _ (94, 96, 95) _11 __ LakeNormanStormin (7) _______________ 3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_ -6 _ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) _12 __ Floydbuster (12) _______________________ 3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_ -6 _ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) _13 __ WxWatcher007 (25) ___________________ 3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_ -6 _ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) _14 __ wxdude64 (28) ________________________ 4 __ 2 _ 1___ -5_ -3_ -1 _____ 91 _ (93, 95, 93) ___ NOAA _____________________________________3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_ -6 _ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) _15 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) _____________ 1 __ 4 _ 0 ___-0.5_-10_ 0 ___ 89.5 (88.5, 92.5, 91.5) _16 __ BarryStantonGBP (1) ___________________ 4 __ 3 _ 0___ -5_ -6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) _17 __ wxallannj (21) __________________________ 4 __ 3 _ 0___ -5_ -6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) _18 __ jmearroz (31) __________________________ 4 __ 3 _ 0 ___ -5_ -6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) _19 __ George BM (35) ________________________4 __ 3 _ 0 ___ -5_ -6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) _20 __ Kaari (NW-7) __________________________ 4 __ 3 _ 0 ___ -5_ -6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) _21 __ marsman (14) __________________________ 6 __ 0 _ 1___-10.5 _ 0 _-1____88.5 _ (91.5, 90.5, 88.5) _22 __ Ga Wx (20) ____________________________ 1 __ 4 _ 1 ___-0.5_-10 _-1___ 88.5 _ (89, 93, 91) _23 __ Normandy Ho (30) ____________________ 4 __ 3 _ 1___ -5_ -6_ -1 ____ 88 _ (90, 93, 94) _24 __ BKViking (29) _________________________ 3 __ 4 _ 0___ -3_-10_ 0 ____ 87 _ (88.5, 92.5, 91.5) ___ UKMO ____________________________________ 3 __ 4 _ 0___ -3_-10_ 0 ____ 87 _ (88.5, 92.5, 91.5) _25 __ jconsor (3) ____________________________ 3 __ 4 _ 1___ -3_-10_-1 ____ 86 _ (87.5, 91.5, 92.5) _26 __ Torch Tiger (17) _______________________ 4 __ 4 _ 0___ -5_-10_ 0 ____ 85 _ (87, 91, 90) _27 __ yoda (22) ______________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 0___ -5_-10_ 0 ____ 85 _ (87, 91, 90) ___ consensus __ (median) ____________________ 4 __ 4 _ 0___ -5_-10_ 0 ____ 85 _ (87, 91, 90) _28 __ NeffsvilleWx (10) _______________________ 6 __ 3 _ 1___-10.5_-6_-1 ___ 82.5_ (85.5, 88.5, 89.5) _29 __ Yanksfan (8) ____________________________5 __ 4 _ 0___-7.5_-10_ 0 ___ 82.5 _ (85, 89, 88) _30 __ nvck (32) _______________________________ 5 __ 4 _ 0___-7.5_-10_ 0 ___ 82.5 _ (85, 89, 88) _31 __ NC USGS^ (33) __________________________1 __ 5 _ 2 ___-0.5_-15_-3 ___ 81.5 _ (82, 87, 84) _32 __ hudsonvalley21 (34) ____________________ 5 __ 4 _ 1___-7.5_-10_-1 ____ 81.5 _ (84, 88, 89) _33 __ Rhino16 (24) ____________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 0___-7.5_-15_ 0 ___ 77.5 _ (80, 85, 84) _34 __ ldub23 (5) ______________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 1___-7.5_-15_-1 ___ 76.5 _ (79, 84, 85) _35 __ Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ___________ 5 __ 5 _ 1___-7.5_-15_ -1 ___ 76.5 _ (79, 84, 82) _36 __ The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) __________ 7 __ 4 _ 1___-14 _-10 _-1 ___ 75 _ (78.5, 82.5, 83.5) _37 __ Tallis Rockwell (18) _____________________ 4 __ 6 _ 1___ -5_-21 _-1 ____ 73 _ (75, 81, 82) _38 __ CHSVol (13) ____________________________ 7 __ 5 _ 0___-14 _-15_ 0 ___ 71 _ (74.5, 79.5, 78.5) _39 __ Metwatch (NW-1, 13) ___________________ 8 __ 5 _ 0 __-18 _-15 _ 0 ___ 67 _ (71, 76, 75) _40 __ WYorksWeather (NW-4) ________________4 __ 7 _ 2___ -5_-28 _-3 ___ 64 _ (66, 73, 75) _41 __ Roger Smith (27) ________________________ 7 __ 6 _ 1___-14 _-21 _ -1 ___64 _ (67.5, 73.5, 71.5) _42 __ matty40s (NW-3) _______________________ 9 __ 6 _ 2 __-22.5_-21_-3__ 53.5 _ (58, 64, 66) ================= (errors in red are forecasts already passed by actual count; these errors can increase) (three alternate scores are for potential named storm 14, for outcomes of only TS, only H, and MH) (order of entry breaks ties in total score) mean now required (excl expert fcsts) is 3.8 _ 2.3 _ 0.0 = 100 -4.5 -3.8 -0 = 91.7 _ (93.6, 96.1, 95.1) ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d.

Still a ton of run to run changes happening across guidance inside 3 days out on the large scale mid level features.

I mean, you’re not wrong.