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  2. dailylurker
    It looks like it might be a rainy morning rush hour. There's a nice batch of rain developing to our south over VA.
  3. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  5. OSUmetstud
    The TNI is the more typical way to look at it and with Nino 4 historically warm right now it's going to be hard to more east-based than 1997.
  6. Hurricane Agnes
    Getting gully washer the past 10 minutes with ,>2"/hr, went from 0.08" to 0.85" in the bucket here in NW Philly. Temp/dp both 76.
  7. Today
  8. vortex95
    Dolphin appears to be en route to a very large eye. Inner eyewall is quite thin on W side. Not sure if drier air has got entrained into the W quad of the system or it is artifact of the next ERC. Either way, a lot of time still for this TC to evolve further, and no reason to think it will not end up being a "donut!"
  9. vortex95
    PT time for @weatherwiz b/c 2% spinner risk for CT now! I can see that. Even though winds are unidirectional sfc-aloft, they are quite strong at 925 and 850. 30-50 kt W to E from central CT to ern MA. Anything over 30 kt means spinner business. 30 -50 kt at 850 as well. Attached is GFS sounding for ern CT at 18z. 38 kt 0-6 km shear is enoughs for supercell and 30 kt 0-1 km shear is excellent for spinner potential. HRRR shows large areas of 0-3 km CAPE 100+ so there is your low-level stretching. Classic tropical tor set up where best winds, relatively speaking, are at low-levels.
  10. gravitylover
    1.1 in 2 downpours. Some of the heaviest rain so far this year.
  11. gravitylover
    1.1 already this morning.
  12. steve392
    Monsoon outside. Storms building and sliding sw to ne
  13. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  17. dmillz25
    Nice downpour near Toms River heading towards NYC
  18. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  19. Torchageddon
    I'm enjoying this Dolphin as the setup is fairly rum. If an eye size is nearing the top percentile I typically take the under but that means the same size remains or an awk transition to a smaller eye. I chuckle watching that wobbly lug of an eye saunter on for days. Those dry air slots are legendary like a whole moon crescent could fit in there
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Near record low arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. Since 2012, it has flipped for the Winter almost every time. Would you guys take a repeat of 24-25 and 25-26 with a Super Nino STJ? I would. Should be interesting.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA may seem out of context in an El Nino thread, but I'm just describing what's happening now - this is the highest El Nino on record for the date, and right now it's not acting like previous Nino's. Will that change for the Winter? perhaps, but I wouldn't expect a monster -150dm N. pacific low in the DJFM mean.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO is still around -3. 23-24 and 72-73 are the only analogs for both unless it starts rising fast.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Bullseye right over mby. There’s a 0.0% chance of that happening.
  24. GaWx
    Brand new BoM remains full steam ahead to a record shattering RONI! This includes once again a record rapid rise within just one month (July to August). Also, it still doesn’t fall steeply after the peak totally unlike the V-shaped CFSv2 curve:
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  27. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wow! Keep in mind July 2025 currently holds the all time monthly PDO record in either state, with -4.2. Oct 2024 was the all time monthly record before that, since the mid 1800s, at -3.8. I know they edited the monthly marks so I want to double check but the site is currently down. Aug being possibly the 7th month in a row with -PNA is a big reason why it's dropping so much. Will it start effecting things different as we move toward the cold season? Perhaps, but -PDO decadal is almost as much of an anomaly as El Nino currently is. Having the two together like this is probably coming up on a 6std happening! Exciting!
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