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Now it will be interesting to see what happens from here. Looking back at 1997-98 we see there was a double peak for 180-100W OHC. 2015 we also saw this and 2023 again both years did have overall less OHC than 97 and this current year but both had a double peak, 1982 did not just had one continuous upward movement. My own thoughts would suggest maybe a September peak in OHC then a quick decline as we head into winter. The only problem with this is the lack of - anomalies in the WPAC subsurface we have yet to really see develop compared to other years with a similar temp profile. So as 180-100W may die out the overall 130E-80W and even just 160E-80W still stay relatively warm with those stronger negative anomalies not showing up leading to a more basin wide setup as we get to winter. Just thoughts floating around as we typically see the Nino events die west to east from an OHC stand point. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 1997 1 .54 .49 .56 1997 2 .84 .85 1.00 1997 3 1.09 1.26 1.17 1997 4 1.49 1.87 2.17 1997 5 1.38 1.82 2.01 1997 6 1.55 2.01 2.25 1997 7 1.34 1.77 1.83 1997 8 1.07 1.50 1.79 1997 9 1.25 1.85 2.38 1997 10 1.35 2.05 2.56 1997 11 1.19 1.94 2.30 1997 12 .56 1.15 1.02 1998 1 -.24 .16 .00 1998 2 -.66 -.35 -.38 It is like if 1997 and 2015 had a baby. Shame we are not getting the western edge of TAO as those buoys are being worked on.

97-98 had negative heights in Alaska. CANSIPS has +heights there. ECMWF I think is completely different, showing +EPO for the Winter.

Why does the CANSIPS have the El Nino continue to be centered so far west? That's not the way it's developing or is now. +6c in Nino 3.4 is pretty extreme. Nino 1+2 is currently twice as high as Nino 3.4.

Looks like a chance of scattered thunderstorms Sunday evening - early Monday. Mesos are picking it up. Another chance at some severe weather. Been an active summer for sure.

And there ya go...not sure how much that happened in 97-98, but gotta imagine it was a factor?

@dmillz25 @donsutherland1 @Rjay Just a reminder

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.2 +1 +.8 +.7 -.3 +.7 +1.6 +1.6 +1.7

@Spartmanentetaining read today for sure. After a long stretch of boring weather it’s nice to have an active forecast discussion. Joe Strus wrote the afternoon discussion, he seems to be winter weenie.

CANSIPS has the El Nino much further west than it's developing.

WPC has lowest rainfall totals where the Euro has the highest.

I'm in the same boat as you, wooded forest surrounding the house creating shade. The Flood brands DO just as good a job as the expensive stuff, IMO. I've used them for years, and about every third year I'm redoing the process, just at a cheaper price point.

Wow - likely wont happen at least here if its convective in nature - but that 1.96 would be more than the past 6 weeks combined.....

I prefer back loaded winters because it means less time til the next cold season. Long as snow is on the ground for Christmas and New Years Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

And now for the cherry on the top... someone hit a skunk or scared it.... air is dead still....just closed all the windows. Dank and stinky comes to mind.

Perfect day tomorrow.

^having the Canadian ridging extending all the way to the west coast is a subtle difference but a key one. If the Aleutian low goes giga (which is what I’d lean toward), that’ll push the ridge inland and just flood Canada with pac puke

DCA: -0.3 NYC: -0.7 BOS: -0.7 ORD: -0.5 ATL: +0.2 IAH: +1.1 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +1.3 SEA: +0.3

Stopping by to deliver the new August CanSIPS (ok time to go back into hiding now, see y'all in December I guess)

Checks out based on Frederick's luck lately

Onto Ughust