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Taking the HECS chance off the table for now, let’s look at the last 3 super ninos. 82-83 wasn’t too bad actually, over 12” outside the Feb 83 HECS for Baltimore. 97-98 was obviously a shutout more or less. 15-16 was about 6” outside Jan 16 HECS. With this one being stronger than all of them and more east-based (for now, I’d wag it tends towards more basin wide as the winter progresses), I’d probably only put my Baltimore area forecast at 2-6” outside a HECS chance? But obviously the chance for a HECS is well above normal. I’d even go as far to say that the odds of a strong phasing low taking a traditionally favorable snow track for us is VERY high. 97-98 had like 3 of those! But will there be cold air? So I agree with @psuhoffman that when you put that together you get something like 1 in 3 odds maybe? So do you weight that and take 0.33x18” + 4” or something as your forecast total? Kinda no since I actually think a total like 8-14” for the year is less likely than either 2-6” or 18-24” lol. So to do a CWG kinda thing is probably wag: 0-2” 20% 2-6” 40% 6-14” 10% 14-24” 20% 24”+ 10%

So we probably got that going for us fwiw.

We are still 9 days out, but halloween is looking fairly normal temp wise

@GaWx Your SE trough is showing up nicely on the last 2 weeks of today's weeklies. Pretty much in line with seasonal.

Yeah it's clearly boosting spirits city wide

The 30C isotherm/warm pool has actually strengthened and expanded in size. The center of it is at 140W. Absolutely insane

Ya but with big implications and can change patterns depending on strength and which way it goes..

Looks like they recently raised the scale a degree on these. +12C has expanded. Let's get some +13...

I'm loving it. My sons finishing up high school soccer-nice to not sit in the rain or mist

We can roll with it. Growing season is mostly done. Plenty of rainy 50 degree days coming. .

Even when you see the pretty reds way up there…it’s still frozen solid.

I'm a bit surprised that another epic stretch of sunny wx has come to us so soon after the last one in the 2nd half of Sep! This is now the 3rd of the year; 2026 will be remembered for it. For the first time in 4 days I see clouds but its still mainly sunny. My 10 day doesn't show any precip til Thurs the 29th and even then only 1mm . Only a bit over that for the rest of the month? Insanity. Up to 36mm for Oct - a third of that falling on the 1st.

That is just a product of the upper air pattern and what will ultimately steer it and probably due to the fact that the system is still quite unorganized

Euro literally has no precip for its entire run-rare to see that here

How could anyone not love the release of dopamine to the nucleus accumbens that come every day with this stretch?

Hard to trust any model when they are struggling so much.. just look at 97W

This about as good as it gets if you want a long, mild fall. .

Pivotal weather is down just in case you wanted to track..well absolutely nothing

Interesting difference between the EPS mean and control moving into the first week of November. Control develops a stout +PNA/-AO combo but its not a typical pattern evolution of what you'd expect yielding that...also you would at least expect to get a much colder airmass from northern Canada or Arctic but that is not the case. Raging jet too...any systems moving onto the west coast (or into the southwest I should say) or going to fly across the country

For what it's worth, it appears that the AIFS has been running warmer than the traditional ECMWF when it comes to daytime temperatures. Whether this is temporary with the new 0.1° ECMWF grid or something persistent remains to be seen. Here's an example from New York City from the 10/22 0z cycle (similar differences were also present in the 6z cycle): For comparison, the NBM high-low values for October 22 (today) were 65°-47°.

If thread title was for first 1" snowfall think I'll go Jan 26th.

Not with a lot of rain