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Yeah my family is near Baltimore and while they got a solid 6-7”, the changeover is happening fast. I thought it would take until early afternoon. NAM seems brutally effective at detecting those warm layers aloft that global models miss. I thought it was too amped and warm, but reality may be proving it right.

Pinging starting to noticeably increase here (central Balt. county).

I definitely don’t believe we go wo another storm. Models past 3 days are not good.

Likely the first and last time I’ll ever agree with you

Weak coastal off hatteras,nc currently, the tug of war has started. This is where models start to waffle. Almost every model has the weak coastal just off the nj coast later.

1st blowing of 5” of snow. 300’ driveway.

12z ICON a good hit for everyone...again, this doesn't carry that much weight, but nice to look at.

The EPS-AIFS keeps the system next weekend just offshore as it looks like the ridge -trough axis is currently forecast to be a little too far east. It’s indicating that the we may see a mean retrogression in the 500mb height field in early February. So the next system closer to the 6th is currently forecast to be closer to the coast. We will see how this goes since the longer range Euro AI models did a great job with today’s winter storm. The regular Euro and GFS suites were too suppressed. Plus the AIFS single and ensembles are the new highest scoring models. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system

Yeah. Your truthful comment made me LOL, as a lot of folks in the Carolinas and GA were put on very high alert this past week by some of the prettiest TV mets and the dime-a-dozen hobbyist wx nerds on FB. True to form, the DC/MD/VA forum is currently bemoaning their sleetfest resulting in only several inches so far up there, after being forecasted most of this previous week to receive 12-18"....and NoVA (and many others, likely) are about to flip over to ZR within next hour or two. Hear, hear!! Mets have kept the thunder chances in the forecast for our area and continue to emphasize that it's a decent possibility later. Definitely wanting that.

When will secondary take over? .

There was no way to accurately measure the blizzard of 78, I have to believe we were over. The 27.1 at Logan and 28.6 at TF Green are low, though there is no way to officially know. I was living in Cranston and we were over 28.6, no way to measure with the size of the drifts.

Looks the same on CoD site. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

Sleet line southern NJ cape may area

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KTTN&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Oddly, a friend from Salisbury just texted me and he's still all snow with 2.5". Cold along the coast is holding on, but soon to get pushed ots.

Still 32 here in Knoxville. Temps are wild to our south. New Orlsans is sitting at 71 and Baton Rouge is 33 currently.

The radar looks absolutely insane. I have been bit before though by those heavy returns. No reason to not think they're snow but the PTSD is strong from storms past

The mid-level never really transfers that is why we deal with the sleet and don't have a ccb that forms. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Too bad today’s game is in Denver and not New England

Popes are goin' wild

Yeah- I don’t care about the roads; can deal with staying off of them for a day or two. It’s the trees and power lines that have my attention..

Got pushed back last few frames w little

4.25” as of 945

https://x.com/ryankanerwx/status/2015418444397556035?s=46&t=vSc28c4jRnGy3UkOwCbIQQ

In ice ?