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Mmm it matters in shoulder seasons. March bombs for ex definitely benefit from a diabatic heat flux

I always mention the April 2000 NY snow event where ALB went from 78 to 14 inches next day and it mostly fell from 8am-2pm too in mid April

Crushing snow. Mansfield stake depth at #1 all-time (since 1954) for the date at 47”.

Here's the data for New York City: It should also be noted that snowfalls tend to be light during the first half of December when the AO/NAO/PNA are all negative.

I plan doing a little chasing but I think the RDU folks have moved on otherwise.

yeah IDK...I don't get it...there is so much out there you see stated that is either incorrectly stated or just flat out wrong.

Appears River/bay enhanced?? Would a model pick up something like that?

The warm nose that Holston mentioned in a prior post is often a problem for valley areas. It tends to be more prevalent towards Nashville and from Chattanooga to Knoxville. In this case there's also a general lack of heavy precip on some modeling and that doesn't cool the column as efficiently.

What’s also interesting about that is that the ensemble derived PNA index progs from all the three majors have +1 to +1.5 burst. It’s really the operational runs that have not been nesting an event in that period of time. It makes me wonder if something might materialize in there with shorter notice - experimental.

Actually...the only time sun angle matters is...summer. Think about going to the southern latitudes during the summer. It could be be just as hot/humid here but it feels WAY more intense at the southern latitudes with the sun directly over your noggin. When my girlfriend and I were on our cruise to Bimini in July...that was absolutely intense stuff. The nearly overhead sun angle is a killer

Thanks @SACRUS for your daily local climo updates and historical summary. Appreciated always. The historical summary brings back some nice memories from time to time. The 1989 stat from today brings back memories of the bitter cold December that was getting underway.

It's highly annoying to waste cold air...

Squalls already developing coming out of the mountains up here.

All of us know this…how come NWS and TV METS can’t seem to grasp it? And in December of all months lol.

I wish. Lol Xmas party with a different sphere

Good luck all. Hope you get some nice snow tomorrow

The sun angle and warm ground stuff is the biggest nonsense out there. It is only a factor when you're talking abut light rates and when intensity is too light to readily accumulate. When they go from 85 to 26 (in the same day!!) in Denver does the warm ground stop them from getting a foot? No, it does not

Seems like a general consensus being drummed up via CAMs this morning. Feel like flurries will reach north of I-70 with measurable (0.1”+) probably around I-70 with a small incremental increase the further south you go. Rt50 is likely the dividing line for where 1” is possible in this scenario across VA/MD. Slightly better chance north of Rt50 as you get into Sussex County DE. Best chance will be I-66 on south with 2-4” local to 6” across Southwest VA true Central VA, albeit lower side of things as you come off the terrain. System struggling to gain latitude and the drier antecedent airmass will be the main issue for majority of the sub. Bob Chill and Wxdude-ville will have the best opportunity here. CVille folks will have a nice little snowfall to start the season as well.

I like the active look though going forward as dryslot mentioned…I think there will be quite a few chances coming up, just gotta sit tight for a bit longer.

Just imagine if this verified... but more seriously how is this outcome possible? Would a surprise coastal pop off?

BRRR! -10's with a couple -20's this morning. -sd's along the shoreline. -5 here in town (ranked 4th coldest). Dark over the lake with heavy sea smoke. Radar picking up an LES band over the water. BTW, the Sun just made it over the sea smoke. Takes a couple hrs after sunrise. -12 Duluth (3rd) -18 Hibbing (1st beat -17 1991) -11 Brainerd (1st beat -2 1991) -9 Ashland (T 1st -9 1972) -12 St Cloud (T 3rd)

I honestly wonder if the last few winters are playing into it. We’ve had so much marginal temps and warmth since 2022. Last year was colder but we still had marginal temps in several storms. I think it will take a few bigger events to clear out the stench/hangover. Also to be fair, the sfc temps looked pretty warm last event…but they busted much colder. I would prefer they just say the temps are marginal as the reason and not talk about December sun angles.

We had a positive trend for some on Tuesday, when the colder air held tough and over performed in a lot of inland area. It was a small win in that regard. So maybe we can keep the trend going…?

4amish

Bet the dry air will push it later than we think. I am thinking 7-8 at my area in W PWC.