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2.25" total, storm pulling away finally. 0.93" round 1 at 150 AM, 1.32" round 2 starting ar 715 AM.

Our heatwave was 90, 91, 90, 91.

Columbia imby: 1.41” for Sunday into early Monday morning. July total thru early today 1.61”. - compared to total for all June ‘26: 1.87”

Then why use older temp forecasts to argue for warmer conditions? Be honest. If the Euro came in this month, or does in future months, that the NE will be a torch this winter, I suspect you, or one of your surrogates, will be all over it.

I could see the euro seasonal close to being accurate if we see a full discharge of the W pac warm pool and muted MC forcing. This is probably why the Euro plumes are also showing ONI of +3C to +4C. These go hand in hand IMO (warm pool discharge and record breaking Nino).

Yesterday rain here .28

1.20 here last night

1.03 here so far-nice soaker and it's a Monday so who cares

That makes more sense.

In a broad sense you can consider these seasonal models guidance, but the guidance is more of a correlation at times than an actual forecast. I showed in earlier posts how the 2023-2024 seasonal forecasts matched the correlations for Nino 3.4 and not the subset of super events over +2.0. About the only thing that the seasonal models have skill at in July are the Nino forecast plumes now that we are past the spring predictability barrier.

Your heavy rains come tonight along with another wife

1.03 here so far

Western CT will do well. Then it will taper off SE so most of RI and SE Mass get very little. Looked like that for days

1.96 of rain last night in Marysville. Thoughts & prayers to everyone affected by this severe weather event.

0.83" so far

Upton still on the rain train as per their AM Discussion: A stationary front will remain south of Long Island today. Multiple rounds of heavy rain, along with embedded thunderstorms are expected as a series of shortwaves ride along the boundary through tonight. Showers along with embedded thunderstorms are expected to continue through much of the day today as better upper level support/jet energy moves into the region. Conditions remain favorable for torrential rainfall rates/flooding today due to a humid air mass over the region. PWATs remain around 2 inches areawide today, although PWATs of 2+ inches may periodically advect into the southern portion of the area, which is higher than daily max sounding climatology values. Some of the 00z forecast models have indicated PWATs maxing out closer to 2.4 inches. With an easterly flow, mainly parallel to the frontal boundary, training of storms will be likely with potential for backbuilding. 00Z HREF probabilities for 3 inches of rain or more in 3 hours highlights portions of the NE NJ, NYC and Long Island in a 30 percent contour for this evening into tonight, which is typically a good indication of flash flooding potential for this area. As a result, WPC has placed NYC, Long Island and southern CT in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall today. In terms of rainfall amounts, storm total QPF through Tuesday will likely range between 2 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts of 4+ inches. Rainfall rates will likely be 1-2 inches per hour with locally higher rates possible. The main area of uncertainty with the forecast is where the highest rainfall totals and resulting flooding will occur and will depend on the exact placement of the frontal boundary. Flooding impacts would be highest in urban and poor drainage areas in addition to the most responsive rivers/creeks/streams.

Nothing heavy but yeah some persistent showers. Much heavier to the south.

If your point is that seasonal models are generally inaccurate, I agree. But they do offer guidance and leave it up to pros and weenies to put whatever weight they choose. But what we're seeing this year so far is a "rough" consensus similar to this month's Euro. At this point, that consensus is encouraging unless one is hoping for a national/worldwide torch.

If this is all we’re getting, definitely not even a drought dent here. And we’re supposed to heat up again late this week.

That escalated quickly 2.15" sump pump running some water trying to make it in the back door.

Skirting the edge. Dry so far.

Did they get in the full show yesterday at least?

2.6 overnight at my station

0.71” here in sw Lehigh County. Looks like the Lehigh Valley this far is on the lower end regionally while Philly, northern Poconos and Reading all got significantly more. There are a few spots in the poconos that may have gotten several inches per radar estimates.

You have to remember that biases with these models are often situational on where the strongest ridges set up. The locations of the strongest ridges will vary based on La Niña, El Niño and the intensity of the event. This past winter none of the models forecast the record warmth out West where the ridge got stuck in place. The magnitude of the models missing the cold in the east was significantly smaller than the warmth in the west. About the only time in the last few years that the seasonal models were significantly too warm across the entire CONUS was back in January 2025. It was close to the 30th coldest January for the CONUS which was the coldest single month of the 2020s so far. But that miss was eclipsed by December 2024 being the 4th warmest on record.