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The next MN-CHI matchup later in the season is going to be epic!

I agree with your post 100% except that I would substitute 4-7 weeks for your 2-5 weeks for this early in the season per @Stormchaserchuck1if it is going to occur. So, a map at 330 hours is irrelevant. Often the preceding 3 week period is actually warm.

Southeast Forum says the STJ is waking up soon.

Had a half inch here. Next batch currently moving in. Expecting another 1-2" by Thursday. Woke to a balmy 57 this morning. Currently sitting @ 60.... average 43/29.

Calling the game during batting practice.

A SPV disruption would not affect the troposphere that fast anyway. Usually 2-5 weeks...IF, IF, IF it downdwells into the troposphere. I have doubts of much affect.

I really can't get over just how nice these past few weeks have been. Today and the next 2 days after are more than anyone could ask for honestly. Then after that we finally get some rain which we really need

The big warm signal for this winter was beginning to be outlined as early as last spring when we were getting the first hints at how historic this super El Niño was going to become. I agree that over shorter one week to 10 day periods throughout an entire 3 month winter season there can be some variation from the seasonal primary temperature departure pattern. But the one shorter term temperature pattern that has become very reliable has been the warm up from around December 17th to 25th which has occurred every year since 2011 from Philly to NYC. Many times the longer term models from early in December miss this warm up. So the closer to forecast time we get the models correct warmer. Max Temp Time Series 12-17 to 12-25 Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-12-25 61 0 2024-12-25 63 0 2023-12-25 62 0 2022-12-25 59 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 65 0 2019-12-25 52 0 2018-12-25 65 0 2017-12-25 61 0 2016-12-25 60 0 2015-12-25 71 0 2014-12-25 65 0 2013-12-25 68 0 2012-12-25 60 0 2011-12-25 63 0 Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Time Series Summary for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-12-25 58 0 2024-12-25 59 0 2023-12-25 62 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 61 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 55 0 2016-12-25 58 0 2015-12-25 72 0 2014-12-25 62 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 56 0 2011-12-25 62 0 Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Time Series Summary for Newark Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-12-25 59 0 2024-12-25 61 0 2023-12-25 64 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 62 0 2020-12-25 62 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 57 0 2016-12-25 59 0 2015-12-25 71 0 2014-12-25 64 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 57 0 2011-12-25 62 0

Well, there's moisture somewhere. Gotta pull it north lol. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/11/03/parts-florida-see-half-years-worth-rain/ " A weather station in Sebastian, Florida, tallied 7.13 inches in just three hours’ time Monday between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. Valkaria, east of Palm Bay and southeast of Melbourne, logged 11.32 inches between 6 and 10 a.m."

Go NFC North! Best division in the league Make sure you hit the polls today if you haven't voted already.

November 3 1991: The Great Halloween blizzard ends with a total of 28.4 inches of snow at the Twin Cities. 1956: Parts of central Minnesota experience record high low temperatures in the upper forties to the mid-fifties. Minneapolis, Farmington, Chaska, and Gaylord all had high temperatures of 55 degrees Fahrenheit. 1915: One person is killed by lightning during a strong thunderstorm in Chatfield, MN. For Tuesday, November 3, 2026 1890 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 96 degrees, a November record for 76 years. (David Ludlum) 1927 - Historic flooding occurred across Vermont from November 2nd through the 4th. The flood washed out 1285 bridges, miles of roads and railways, and several homes and buildings. Eighty-four people were killed from the flooding, including Lt. Governor S. Hollister Jackson. 1961 - A rare November thunderstorm produced snow at Casper, WY. (3rd-4th) (The Weather Channel) 1966 - An early season snowfall, which started on the 2nd, whitened the ground from Alabama to Michigan. Mobile, Alabama, had their earliest snowflakes on record. Louisville, Kentucky measured 13.1 inches, Nashville; Tennessee reported 7.2 inches, and Huntsville, Alabama, had 4 inches of snow. 1987 - Twenty-one cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Columbus OH was their warmest reading of record for so late in the season. Showers and thundershowers associated with a tropical depression south of Florida produced 4.28 inches of rain at Clewiston in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A sharp cold front brought about an abrupt end to Indian Summer in the north central U.S. Up to a foot of snow blanketed Yellowstone Park WY, and winds in the mountains near the Washoe Valley of southeastern Wyoming gusted to 78 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central U.S. Del Rio TX tied Laredo TX and McAllen TX for honors as the hot spot in the nation with a record warm afternoon high of 91 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Cold weather prevailed in the central U.S. Six cities in Texas, Minnesota, and Michigan, reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 7 above zero at Marquette MI was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) 2001 - Hurricane Michelle reached peak intensity on this day as a Category 4 storm. Michelle made landfall on November 4-5, between Playa Larga and Playa Giron, Cuba, as a Category 4 hurricane, the strongest to strike the country since 1952's Hurricane Fox. The storm caused an estimated $2 billion US dollars in damage to Cuba. 2007 - Dense fog in the early morning hours resulted in a 100 vehicle pile-up just north of Fowler, CA on I-99. Two people were killed, and 41 others were injured. The thick seasonal fog is known as "Tule fog" and typically occurs in Central California in late fall and winter. Observances: 3 Tue Melbourne Cup 3 Tue National Homemaker Day 3 Tue National Sandwich Day 3 Tue Cliche Day 3 Tue Jellyfish Day 3 Tue National Accessory Day 3 Tue National Housewife Day 3 Tue Separation Day 3 Tue Smart Home Day 3 Tue Give Someone a Dollar Day

the trend is your friend

Lower 48 currentish status…

Didn’t know how bad it was up there! Good to hear the areas that need it the most got it!

2.85" of rain yesterday into the night here in town. What great soaker! 1.5-3" across NE MN. More to come.

Rain prospects look really meh for later today and tonight. Don’t expect much more than a quarter of an inch

I know officially it’ll be 1 degree but It’s been above 63 since 3AM. Can’t deny the fact that’s super impressive for early NOV Records(high, low, dry , wet) ALL get me excited. I’ll never tone down my passion.

GFS about 50 miles NW of the prior run now for Fri rains

Agreed, Carver. I think we ultimately stair-step our way toward a more favorable pattern as November progresses, potentially setting the stage for something memorable as we close out the year. No rush for winter to arrive just yet. I'd rather see the building blocks fall into place heading into December.

Looking like modified pac air torchfest pattern

Drove out to frostburg this morning to tour the campus with my son. Leaves were past peak west of Frederick but still scenic. West of sideling hill leaves are well past peak with a lot of bare trees.

Textbook year of what you want in a Nina winter here. Well above avg snowfall, well above avg snowcover/snow depth, and well below avg temps.

My average temp in December is 31-32 degrees. If I’m 1-2 degrees below average with that much precip, I’m going to be in business. Dec 97 redux .

The Euro weeklies were absolutely bullied in this forum last winter for their expected inaccuracy past week 2 (they showed cold), but i have a feeling we will be seeing the same ones posting weeks 5 and 6 often this winter.