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that is a monster LLJ too on the Euro...and one that encompasses a large geographic area

No

not watching the end of the mets season?

I'm right on the Iredell/Rowan border right off HWY 801,youre a good 3 or 4 miles from me.

What scenarios would increase the chances of a hybrid/warm core system? Spending more time over water? Moving north quicker rather than just rotting offshore? A more pronounced capture?

Yeah, it's pretty clear that it won't be the 3-5 day event that guidance had been showing, but most of us should still get a nice soaking between now and Wednesday morning. (And there could even be a backdoor sneak attack from the coastal on Saturday if you want to buy into the ECMWF.)

Yes! Lets light this candle!

We stand a legitimate chance of no hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year.

What's interesting on the EPS is you see the two clustered areas that you mention, however, then there is a convergence of the two camps backing in west.

Both models seem to have a cluster SE of ACK and then way SW of ACK. Or course the mean will be in the middle...but it's likely one or the other.

I was hopeful that you would do well with this system. The morning visible satellite imagery along with mesonet data showed northeast winds ahead of the approaching system. That setup usually helps with locations in the lee of the Appalachian and Blue Ridge Mts.

best EPS run yet.. GFS is either drunk or going to pull a miracle

This afternoon has been perfect. Falling temps and steady moderate rain. Up to .70".

Unlike the responses from well versed forum members, I can only offer that I am very happy to see a post from you. Stay well and please if possible visit again. As always ….

EPS also looks good

Have had steady heavy drizzle most of the day and has added an additional 0.11" so far. Feels like a west coast forest outside today. All that's missing are some 300ft redwoods.

Serious chill off the lake today. Not seeing 70° until the weekend is nearly unfathomable after how warm it has been this September. On the 15th we were a touch below 90° and most days have been above 80°, quite a shock to the system

Total deluge especially ENE areas

If only this was in January .

12z AI ensembles a little east but good hit. Curious to see deep mind later.

WPC cut rainfall way back. Days 1 to 3 show a drastic reduction DC North and East, while the days 4/5 and 6/7 are whiffs.

very weak but still around at the end of next week

2 months worth of rain too lol. Still too early to lock anything.