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Not often you see MET exceed MAV

Truly horrrific

7.3" total here in Bradford. Not too bad.

A little bit better for you, but it wasn’t obvious to me looking at the radar. 7 inches on the ground this morning and most spots. So probably with settling we had about 7 1/2.

Same ol pattern. Fast Pac jet won't let much turn the corner or phase

Again courtesy of the MA forum. Its the NAM so grain of salt at this range but would fit the last few years where the Delmarva schoold our area w/r/t %of average snowfall lol.

A shame Friday won’t work out. Cant believe mid Atlantic snows before us

I'm not feelin a nam like solution with qpf but I do like all guidance running a measurable stripe through my region. Pretty sold on the 1-2" potential. Above that is possible but light events are what they are. H5 is pretty flat. 100% stoked that it's a daylight event with a start around sunrise.

Very wintry. 3" to start the season off. We take it.

NAM looking pretty sweet for Friday...if you like southern sliders

It’s wayyyy more difficult to achieve coherent cyclones with a hyper fast flow. It’s a real turd in the punch bowl.

Trends are certainly better on the NAM. We're def in the hunt for some of the better stuff

Might be a bit stronger WINDEX signal back across north-central New York towards Albany. A quick look doesn't seem to be the case around here but could certainly see some heavier snow showers whiten things up quickly. Would be like mid-to-late afternoon too so definitely localized travel impacts possible

Models are getting active because of phase 8. Timing issues will be key moving forward.

If only there was a bit more southern stream juice.

Trace of snow sometime over night. Already melted in the sunny spots. .01" for the year.

Phase 8 this week Models are active. Just need to get it timed right.

Some clown maps from the short range Hi Res models

Close enough got time for the shift to euro like solution.

maybe others did as well but I mentioned I think on Monday that the models were looking rather squally associated with that arctic front. May even be WINDEX sounding but I didn't particularly look. Looked to time rather comically for the evening commute heh. I was reminded a bit of the 2003 metrowest gridlock event from a 33F morning commute, perfectly timed squalls that greased 128, then the temp free fell through the 20s and what ensue was tantamount to a demographic nightmare - possibly a historic event from 1" of melt--> flash freeze. I think it was grid lock for 4 hours of something spousal abusing

Today’s MJO forecasts: 1. EPS is once again very steady and has a 15+ day long phase 8, the longest winter phase 8 in 50 years: one couldn’t place it in a better position in Dec for the entire 2 weeks for E US cold lovers: GEFS has been more jumpy than the EPS from day to day: today it still has a 9 day long phase 8, which itself would still be the longest in winter since Feb of 2019’s 9 days, before backtracking to phase 7:

@usedtoberejoices

Well, the Euro shows the max possibilites, NAM in the middel, coming north a bit and GFS...whiff to the south. Sigh