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@mitchnick but at this range I’m not married to any idea. I think this is a legit threat but we need to get closer to 100 hours before I’ll even try to get specific about it. And even then know further adjustments will happen. We’re still in the “this is interesting I’ll keep an eye on it” range.

Got it. Anything else? You wanna take it look at it, im editing it now so i can change the lines, ill default to you guys since you are much more familiar with this storm, especially in that area. I don't even remember it. I am bringing the 20" line across like you mentioned.

And this general look is now within 10 days, lowering the chances of yet another rug. Can still lose it, but the idea of a wave undercutting the decaying block has been on the ensembles for at least a few days now.

At this range it was teasing us. But this is not the same situation or setup. It’s more similar to the Jan 25 storm and the AI did very well with that.

Got snow falling at my house now. 18z NAM 3km give many 1”+!

yea, but the real question is what is your 3 model average?

How did the AI Eps look before the storm last Sunday?

Feb 2020 had above average snowfall here (24.9”, Feb average is 20”). The worst Feb here was 2024 (strong nino), which featured a paltry 0.8”

And to think we're neighbors, too, so we can suffer together.

33.4 and on and off drizzle, haven't seen any snow yet but its hard to tell with how little precip is falling

You don’t see the setup this clear on an ensemble this far out often. The crazy thing is the blocking is all that makes this work. Similar to Feb 2010, the pacific longwave pattern would normally scream huge SER but the displaced TPV and 50/50 there won’t allow it. The fight between the attempt to ridge in front of the approaching wave and the blocked in cold is what will create the threat. We’ve got snowstorms from this exact setup many times.

I’ll take the over on both. Hanson probably had close to 2’. Scituate depends where in town but anywhere away from water likely had close to 2’.

Sleeting at BGS… put on them sprankle tires! .

Yeah it’s just mostly where the trough sets up. Although some areas may see c-1” Friday on the coast

What, the IPAs? As to Saturday, I don't see that as more than a dusting to an inch maybe two

Snowing lightly down here. Started around sunset with snow pellets. Slowly transitioning to dendrites. I'm at 33 degrees so it prob won't accumulate unless it picks up quite a bit. Euro says I get 1-2" lol but I think those odds are 1-2% lol

The median increased also!

Ok I lied, it's now snowing lol.

yep... actually the OES potential looks pretty crappy...

You mthr FCKN ninja

AIFS EPS still very interested. Save yourselves time and don’t look at op runs past 100 hours. Not saying this is going to happen. There is uncertainty even among the various ensembles. But worrying about the op runs at this range will just add confusion and noise.

We will see... not a big deal one way or the other... feel free to respond if I'm wrong! Lol..

Ai ensembles still snowy

Lots of shovel & temperature talk today… But no one bothered to post the 12z Euro for next weekend’s chance…Lol! This run shows heavy snow to mix for most of us before a change back to snow. The low took a somewhat inland track, which brought on the mixing this run. Long way to go…