All Activity

96 at noon. KMdT is at 95.

Geez... from the 1125am LWX updated discussion Unlike previous days which were free of convection, a collapsing ridge will lift the subsidence that has persisted the last few days. This subsidence is evident in two levels in the 12Z KIAD RAOB - 900-800 mb, and 575-525 mb (the latter of which is more stout than forecast most forecast soundings have). Although mid/upper heights remain anomalously high, forcing from an approaching shortwave will aid in more widespread showers and thunderstorms. One unique aspect to the thermodynamic environment is an elevated mixed layer (EML) which has shown up in the last 5 IAD sounding profiles (9.3 C/km this morning 780-570 mb). This is unusually steep for this area. This is contributing to some impressively large amounts of instability, generally 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg MUCAPE as of 12Z objective mesoanalysis. Within the deeply mixed boundary layer, substantial downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) is evident with values around 1,300 to 1,700 J/kg. Although vertical shear is only around 20 to 25 knots, any storms able to tap into the robust instability will be capable of damaging winds. Some of this could be locally considerable with gusts up to 70 mph. With all of the above in mind, and ample high-resolution model support, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded areas east of the Blue Ridge to an Enhanced Risk today. This upgrade would support a more widespread footprint of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Looking a bit more closely at today`s setup, convective initiation likely will be more mesoscale in nature. This would include the climatological lee-side trough, bay and river breezes, as well as any remnant outflows from earlier convection. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible given so much instability in the troposphere. The primary signal east of the Blue Ridge is in the 3-9 PM timeframe, slightly earlier to the west. Damaging winds are the main threat, with even a small chance for large hail given steep lapse rates and large CAPE (though high freezing levels and modest shear will offset this risk). Although the convective signal is strongest during the afternoon to early evening hours, residual storms could easily impact those with outdoor plans for fireworks this evening. Continue to check back at weather.gov/lwx or follow the National Weather Service - Baltimore/Washington social media accounts for the latest.

98/68 dp at 12:13pm no clouds I'll let y'all do the math at this point.

Yes CIG1 for wind introduced along i95 corridor from DC metro into PHL

Hatched now too on the wind. 16m population under cig 1 on 4th of July. Explosive.

I thought this whole thread was a fallacy! Lol

5% hail introduced on 1630z OTLK from Roanoke VA to DC metro

Models seem to offer hope for major mid and late July cooldown

its not too bad if you are sitting drinking water but once you start walking around it feels like a sauna - no messages yet from SPC about any possible watches as of noon - also yesterday the temp here dropped from 102 to 72 after the storm - expect something similar today later

The lower dew points give me pause for sure, but I feel better seeing that even the HRRR, which overmixes the crap out of our area this afternoon, initiates a modest coverage of storms locally.

Please don’t rain

it's winter in the summer. Someone seems bound though to get some good rains but I'm a little skeptical of widespread amounts that high like the NAM has.

If this was winter these wet n wild Mets would be so conservative when they should be gung ho. In summer it’s rains gone wild when so many things could go wrong . Interfering to note

Congrats Dendrite

With convection involved in the mid Atlantic. Proceed with much caution on big amounts

He’s well aware of my thoughts . Thanks for your obsession

Several mesonet sites in the eastern shore and southern MD are running ahead of yesterday.

That is going to be they key I think to where the heaviest totals occur. Have to see where that sets up but sort of seems like that may be just north of SNE. We get into the heavy rains as it moves through but this might be maximized just north. I foresee one big band of rain lifting north then more showery

Yeah 36 hours of that 850 fgen.... with 2" pwats on the south coast.

Not as hot here yesterday at the same time. Clouds

Also should start to see some cumulus start to form in the next couple hours. Already popcorn storms over the higher elevations

Number of ensemble members pretty close to doubled overnight for the BDL area. I would be more willing to toss if there wasn't a band of warm advection f-gen on all models.

Cap won yesterday. Less of an issue today despite the lower dews, but given the uncertainty with the placement and coverage of storms, I'm a little surprised to see the 45% from SPC today (though they kept me in a Slight at the 00z update last evening despite it being clear nothing was gonna happen after 00z). I do think whatever storms do form will likely overperform because we haven't had any turnover in the atmosphere since the start of the heatwave. Congrats to whoever gets the storms today (assuming it doesn't cancel your plans). I think we get scattered storm coverage with stuff that comes in off the mountains, but where those end up exactly is my biggest uncertainty.

95 / 65 here

Good luck with your half inch.