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  2. nw baltimore wx
    I’ll take this weather every time over what September has been the last several years.
  3. GaWx
    Coldest 1958-2023 at 80+N for El Niño for aggregate period Sep 28th-Dec 31st: 1987: coldest 1976:2nd coldest 1968: 3rd coldest Others that were also cold overall but not top 3 cold: 1979: 1977: 1963: 1958:
  4. suzook
    50 this morning, 90 currently. Crazy swing.
  5. wxdude64
    Yep, Ditto here. Forecast is STILL mostly sunny and 78, same as it was at 7 am, lol. We MAY get there later, but after about 45 minutes of sun early this morning we have been cloudy. Currently 65.8/55.4 at 2 pm.
  6. A-L-E-K
    riding it
  7. MANDA
  8. MANDA
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
  10. Ji
    GFS ensembles went south too
  11. Ji
    EURO AI went so south we dont see a drop. THats what im looking for.
  12. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I have always been with you on that. Interesting you note the weak signal nationally because some of the seasonal guidance has been hinting that December maybe colder than January and February in the NE.
  14. CoastalWx
    Looks that way
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good question...I guess the year in the aggregate?
  16. raindancewx
    The PDO tends to decay toward whatever 1.2 is in October, so I do expect it reverse toward neutral fairly rapidly in the coming weeks. But I never really expected it to sustain positive, and that still looks correct. PDO is a pretty weak signal in December nationally. The lightest blue/green is 0.1 r, not r-squared. But PDO is a bigger deal in Oct-Nov and Jan-Feb. The only important tendency with a -PDO December is Western Canada will be cold (probably not flooded with Pacific air).
  17. GaWx
    I’ll check. But first tell me this: do you mean around the current time (say, the same day (Sep 28th) or late Sept through Oct) or do you mean also later?
  18. raindancewx
    We're up to 3.8 inches of rain as of a minute ago for the month. Should pass September 2013 (3.97") to become the wettest month for Albuquerque since July 1930 in the next two hours. Above 4.45" (July 1930), its easily the wettest month in over 100 years. Real shot at passing July 1930 too with ~36 hours of rain/month left as Polo makes landfall two. Sept rain/temp patterns nationally don't really reflect correlations to El Nino or the PDO, although PDO is irrelevant for US temps in Sept.
  19. Today
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know that.....I mean the entire list of cold arctic years.
  21. HIPPYVALLEY
    Maybe putting an end to what has already been a very tame yellow jacket season in these parts. Relative to normal at least.
  22. GaWx
    2011 was moderate La Niña while 2000 was weak La Niña. Also, both were coming off of a prior year’s Niña.
  23. Stormlover74
  24. Typhoon Tip
    First wide spread multi-regional frost/freeze potential 6th-7th?
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would not expect that this year....1997 was low, ascending solar with a strong easterly QBO...very odd timing for a super-El Nino. This year fits the bill with W QBO and descending solar. Good luck with early blocking. 1997 is a very poor polar analog...our chances will come later this year.
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    2004 was a weak El Nino...any other warm ENSO years on that list?
  27. gravitylover
    Meh. It's just sitting and spinning and hasn't moved out so we're not 'behind' it yet.
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