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It’s so bad that I was just listening to Guns N’ Roses “You could be mine”, and now I’m putting Stein to it. You could be Stein.

Maybe tomorrow night?

Temp 86 here dp 79 heat index 99

My downpour is harder than your downpour!

1.9" for August monthly total. Dryness is back. September averages wet, but I suppose much of that was driven by tropical moisture. We'll see ...

The leak eastward of CANSIPS continued this month...that trend above was last month.

heavy rain is NOT boring, you are boring

I’m fed up with the strategic Stein Roman Helmets. Enough is enough.

Here is what I was getting at earlier RE CANSIPS...excerpt from my blog: Guidance is unanimous on notion that El Niño should begin to become more evenly distributed once again as the WWBs finally begin to weaken this fall, but they disagree on just how quickly and to what extent that will occur. The CANSIPS seems too aggressive in weakening the WWBs significantly by October, and the CFS evolution of shifting the event severely towards Modoki before an abrupt reversal to east-based is considered bizarre and thus disregarded. The JMA also seems far too aggressive in increasing the EMI to approximately .7 to .8, likely due to an early and exaggerated WWB retreat. Note that the June forecast already had the EMI crossing into the Modoki side of neutral for July and August, which has not happened. The CANSIPS has been making similar shifts eastward of the El Niño, as the trend from June to August for the peak OND period is clear. The European solution seems most reasonable, with a slow subsiding of the WWBs and accompanying neutralization of the EMI in late October, before a slight resurgence of WWBs and retreat eastward of the El Niño this winter. Here are the three distinct EMI scenarios. The ECMWF evolution of the El Niño EMI essentially neutralizing for winter is favored, which would ultimately render the El Niño as basin-wide.

It was both.......the first half was bad luck, the second half sucked. Early season was decent owed to the low-scending solar, east QBO combo....but it turned ugly later.

Hearing quite a bit of rumbling here in the Summit area. Only storm around is way up in N Morris county.

I fully believe 97-98 was mostly bad luck for the I-95 cities despite a decent pattern at times. People get too caught up in the idea that it was bad just because just because it was the most east based.

It was essentially neutral...very positive first half and negative 2nd half. The index calculations don't always match the composite, as was the case last year....it appeared to be a very deeply -WPO but it wasn't due to placement of the ridge.

Doesn’t really show up on the H5.

97-98 turned out awfully, but it left a good bit on the table....it was actually dealt a pretty favorable hand from a polar perspective, which we don't have this year.

Yep. Bwi had 6 or 7" on a Sunday night in December 1983 that wasn't expected. It hit Phl similarly I believe. 97/98 was a dog at Bwi with a couple inches for the season. My current location totalled around a foot for the 97/98 season.

But that’s all it’s been all summer. And that’s boring

This storm looks like a hurricane on radar now. I know it's not one but that isn't a bad radar presentation at all. Definitely more easterly shear than NHC has mentioned though, it cannot wrap convection upshear despite numerous attempts

This is some insane rain with this though. Getting crushed with the rain today

RFK Jr?

He refuses to look at models or any empirical data . It’s nothing

Not sure much wind with this...instability is most elevated and there probably is at least some sort of inversion rooted above the sfc.

Tired of these Floridian dews. Let's go fall.