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Where is your backyard again? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I see mention of a lake effect event taking shape Sunday afternoon in the NW Indiana AFD. Trying to decide whether to drop off my daughter in Chicago on Sunday afternoon (returning to GR in the evening), or have her take an early train Sunday morning from Grand Rapids instead. Temps look to be in the low 30s on Sunday which usually means the roads are OK. That said, I-94 during a winter storm warning is rarely a good idea. A mid level dry slot still looks to overspread the area overnight into early Sunday morning, with a quick tapering of snow across most of the area and a likely transition to light snow/areas of drizzle with drying DGZ and near sfc wet bulbs warming to near freezing across south/southeast areas. A quick transition to stronger low level CAA ensues for Sunday morning and afternoon as stronger upper vort lobe drops across the southern Great Lakes. This should allow for at least a 6 to 9 hour period of favorable lake effect snow showers for additional accumulations/impacts with gusty CAA-induced winds also expected. Some higher res guidance also suggests potential of mesovort-type feature to accompany a sharper low level trough passage across southern Lake Michigan Sunday morning/midday. Have maintained the Winter Storm Warning headline into Sunday afternoon for areas possibly impacted by lake effect snow, and have expired the warning by 15Z Sunday for remainder of the area. This timing may need to be moved up further as most of the synoptic accumulating snow could depart after 09Z Sunday morning. Lake effect snow showers should wane Sunday evening.

Every time I see a trough off San Diego something always gets effed up.

Grid collapsed for Raynham and Easton on the euro

the 6z Euro is SO close for the metros. it would only take like 20 miles for them to stay. all snow. still 80 hours out...

That gives me flashbacks to last season, where it seemed like something always destructively interfered with any sw trying to amplify.

One real nice thing about this system is the wind is actually going to drop through this afternoon as the low passes by to the south and some of the best snow moves in. This should lead to an efficient ratio as the snow won't blow around.

Storms bring out the "fruits" Only speaking for myself. Hope y'all get buried. I'm close to being up and running. A little piece of property, a tin box, right in the middle of the forest. Can't believe fiber internet!

My gut says that’s closer to reality . SE ridge is watching

Could be a grid collapser near Foxboro on that look.

Bit too much of this growing up.

The EPS and and GEPS caved to the GEFS on the +EPO/Alaskan vortex by the 2nd week of December, but they go +PNA/-NAO so it keeps the east under a trough GEFS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2025112900&fh=288&r=na&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 GEPS, EPS:

I tried to tell him…but he’s got a paste obsession.

No doubt. MLI was up to 4.9" already as of 6am, so they will blow by the seasonal total by early to mid afternoon.

Here’s the meat of the storm with the real rates on the 00z euro….paste zone is prob more like SE MA to interior SE CT on that look…interior MA to interior N CT is prob a degree or two cold enough to not be too pasty

Low of 27°

The thing is, if you amped the euro solution from 00z just a bit more, then you and me would prob see a lot more paste, Kevin since we’d be closer to 0C from like 900mb to surface. But if it’s more like -2C then it’s gonna be more powdery.

Looping in 8. Insane.

No it wound be like 28-30F for you. Not really pasty. Maybe for a brief time early on.

Thanks for this. The only good snowfall winter on the list for CPK is 64/65.

When does the Soul season start? Asking for a friend.

Finally on the board for the season with a whopping 0.1"

More early than mid week but trends are favorable here

I'm having some serious doubts for mby. I need a cooling trend to start if not today, definitely by tomorrow.

Winter of ‘24-25 soon to be a distant memory