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He was just stating what the models showed in early to mid March. They did show a colder and potential snowy pattern. The NAO never went negative.

heh. Just in an op ed mood this morning Yeah, so I wouldn't tell anyone not to try. That's would be, in a word, stupid. One has to try... for one, if the process brings them joy, you only live once. Rock on. Plus, NOT trying at all? That would greatly reduce one's success rate in discovery, huh. LOL. The deeper take away there is that the foundations upon which long range prognostics were always based upon are clearly cracked. Perhaps crumbling... There has to be more in the way of original insight. As I mentioned, a fall back approach has been working rather well ... ish. Trying to asses the continuation vs collapse of 6-month persistence. You know, I almost nailed this winter. I fucked up the February thing but... my feelings were not hurt by that. I was much more confident in early cold/blocking, and I didn't use anything other than noticing aspect of late summer and autumn and pushing those forward. None of which was ENSO this or snow in the arctic that, or solar cycles ...or blah blah-blah. Is it reproducible? not saying that either. As far as the ego stuff... I've just had to throw hands. Year and years ago, when I started seeing ENSO's statistically decoupling around the world, I was ignored. But then some independent whatever comes up with RONI; yet no credit is conferred. So you know ... it's like fuggit thing. we can know, and know one knows and that's just the way it goes. you are either chosen or unspoken. Whatever god runs this show can go fuck itself. LOL

What rain?

I agree. To me personally, the 24-25 winter was more fun in both tracking and playing outside with my daughter.

Yup. We are definitely seeing more variation with fringe-events, though, which is why passing the baton from ONI to RONI was so crucial.

Good luck to your plants.

Too many people have figured out that life's events happen too frequently for people to remember erroneous bad predictions or bombastic lies...

The Earth's circulation isn't deviating that much. Things like the NAO still show Atlantic circulation mode, and although -NAO hasn't hit as hard with cold, +NAO has hit just as hard, harder with warmth. In the end, it evens out but you still have positive and negative modes to the index. Here's the last 333 consecutive months.. although ENSO is "warm", you can see by the Hadley Cell circulation that there is still a well defined "Nina-mode". Relative indexes work the same as the Earth still has 99.99% of it's general circulation in continuum.

When in doubt, go warm, though...not disputing that. But I'm like that 4th grade math teacher trying to instill the processes of solving long division problem into the class..."make sure you show the work", even if the short-answer could be easily discerned.

Perfect example, RONI and EMI denoted a La Nina that was better established than the traditional ONI would imply, so of some forecasters went warm in the east just based off of that...oops.

Yea seacoast NH.

Dont worry I only post in here when our areas are tracking a snow event or I am on vacation in Wildwood.

I know, I'm not looking forward to the 1,000 posts about how "everything's warming in this new climate"

Yea, I'm taking about the actual pattern, though....not simply "warm or cold". Obviously warmer is the safe bet....

Last freeze 3/29?

There's probably a 85% that any given place will be above average year-to-year, for DJFM (91-20 averages). I would have said 80% until this heat ridge hit the Mountain West and SW this cold season.

Eh.....having issued 12 winter seasonal efforts now, I think they still have plenty of utility as long as you make an effort to incorporate climate change into the work. For instance, it's important to understand that what other forces are now competing with ENSO, and the ramifications said forces have on the hemispheric pattern. If you simply interpret a lower RONI as a weaker El Nino and blindly forecast colder because of that....yea, good luck.

There were some pretty bad posts during this past winter. Sometimes you just have to be patient and see what happens.

Yup. Impressive month up there even if it’s just dead rad cooling airmasses. Kinda surprised they haven’t broken one record low max although they’ve come close a few times. They’ve had 4 or 5 low mins though. But just a relentless barrage of 25 to 35 BN days.

This is will be the most progressive exit and transition from winter to spring I’ve seen since living up here. The average winter conditions to annihilation of the pack in early March, and then last freeze March 29. Really nice. It’s remarkably easy to see, in that we’ve had no -NAO conditions forecasted or otherwise , and so it’s just the northern jet migrating subtly north due to the seasonal tide of the increasing sun angle…

Members 15.6k Location:NYC-NJ Posted March 27, 2025 Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (1998) NYC: 83 (1998) LGA: 83 (1998) JFK: 80 (1998) Lows: EWR: 22 (2014) NYC: 20 (1894) LGA: 23 (2014) JFK: 23 (2014) Historical: 1890 - An outbreak of tornadoes occurred in the Ohio Valley. One of the tornadoes struck Louisville KY killing 78 persons and causing four million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1932: Just six days after Alabama's deadliest tornado outbreak, more severe storms broke out across the same area hard hit before. A farm at Lawley, AL in Bibb County was struck by tornadoes on both days. The most powerful tornado of the day was an F3 that touched down about 2:30pm in Bibb County and roared into Chilton and Coosa Counties killing five people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1950 - A three day snowstorm in the High Plains Region finally came to an end. The storm produced 34 inches of snow in 24 hours at Dumont, located in the Black Hills of South Dakota, and a total of 50 inches. (David Ludlum) 1964: Great Alaskan earthquake left 100 dead in Anchorage, Alaska. The tsunami generated by the earthquake in Prince William Sound, Alaska slammed a 2-by-12-inch plank into a truck tire that passed about three feet through the tire. Waves reached 103 feet above the low - tide mark. (Ref. The National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, in Boulder, Colorado) (Ref. More Information On This Earthquake) 1971: The temperature climbed to 100° at Wichita Falls, TX. This is a record for hitting the century mark so early in the season and the warmest day ever in March. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1984 - The temperature at Brownsville, TX, soared to 106 degrees, and Cotulla, TX, reached 108 degrees, equalling the March record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - The second blizzard in less than a week hit eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Snowfall totals ranged up to 24 inches at San Isabel CO. Winds gusted to 50 mph at Goodland KS. The high winds piled snow into massive drifts, closing roads for days and killing thousands of cattle. Snow drifts thirty feet high were reported in northwest Kansas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Temperatures rose quickly, then dropped just as rapidly, in the central U.S. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s. In southeastern Colorado, the temperature at Lamar CO reached 91 degrees. Strong southerly winds gusted to 63 mph at Gage OK. Strong northwesterly winds, gusting to 61 mph at Goodland KS, then proceeded to usher much colder air into the area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Two tornadoes were reported, and there were 77 other reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Willow OK and Bartlesville OK. Twenty-six cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Yankton SD with a reading of 84 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Temperatures dipped into the teens and single numbers in the northeastern U.S. Scranton PA tied their record for the date with a morning low of 18 degrees. Temperatures warmed into the 60s and lower 70s in the Pacific Northwest. The afternoon high of 65 degrees at Astoria OR equalled their record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Severe thunderstorms were widespread over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and the Great Lakes area with more than 300 reports of severe weather, including 28 tornadoes. Four F3 tornadoes struck the state of Michigan. Another F3 tornado injured 18 people and did $12 million dollars in damage in the Nettle Lake area in Ohio. Softball sized hail fell at Portage, MI and a wind gust of 89 mph was recorded at Franklin, WI. Cold air was drawn down on the backside of the storm. Snow began to fall over the northwestern counties in Iowa shortly after daybreak. Snow amounts were generally between 3 to 6 inches with the heaviest snow occurring in a 40 mile wide area extending from Sioux City northeastward. Thunder accompanied the snow, with 3 inches falling in one hour at the Sioux City Gateway Airport. Visibilities were reduced to near zero by strong northwest winds 25 to 45 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: Palm Sunday tornado outbreak in SE US, nearly 30 tornadoes in 4 states killed 43 people, flooding and mudslides in NC. (Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac) The Goshen Church Alabama Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak occurred on this date. What began as a peaceful Palm Sunday quickly changed to a historic day in weather history when a powerful tornado ripped through southern Alabama and Georgia. By the time the storm was over 22 people were dead and 92 were injured. An F4 tornado cut a 50 mile path from Ragland in St. Clair, County Alabama to the Georgia line. The storm touched down near Ragland at 10:51 am. The storm struck Ohatchee, then roared across northeastern Calhoun County, passing near Piedmont and hitting Goshen in Cherokee County. The most disastrous damage occurred at Goshen, where the twister struck the Goshen United Methodist Church at 11:37am. 20 people were killed at the church, which did not hear the tornado warning issued 10 minutes earlier by the National Weather Service in Birmingham. A tornado watch had been issued at 9:30 am. Following the tornadoes, Vice President Al Gore pledged to extend NOAA Weatheradio coverage into the areas affected by the twisters, which had previously been unable to receive the alarm signals. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) An F2 tornado caused much damage in Tallulah Falls, GA; then descended a 500 foot cliff to the base of nearby Tallulah Gorge, where it destroyed many trees. Debris in the gorge included letters from Piedmont, AL, some 140 miles SW of Tallulah Falls, and the site of an earlier F4 tornado. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)

Cant argue. Last winter was a good one with 2 6"+ snowstorms(both all snow) and had snow otg for 2 weeks or so in Jan. I was just above climo here. Our area has a had a pretty nice run overall since the 2016 Nino. A couple lean winters plus the ratter mixed in.

56 / 43 light rain 79 yesterday (7th day >70 here for Mar). Cooler next few days through Sunday. Then much warmer mon (3/30) - Easter Sunday. Does look a bit cloudy and that could limit from upper 70s to lower 80s, but with sun could push mid 80s or beyond on Wed.

I dont think that was march 25, 2025 - it was march 29th March 25, 2025 EWR: 60 / 54 NYC: 58 / 47 BOS: 54 / 36 March 29, 2025 EWR: 85 / 45 NYC: 81 . / 43 BOS: 48 / 34 EWR:

couple peeks of sun here-50 and breezy