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I honestly did not think we had that much, Quite surprised actually.

Yeah, there’s been a weird corridor from Northern Connecticut. Northern Rhode Island to my area. Can’t really complain this summer. Stein tried to brown my grass for a few weeks, but if you don’t water that can happen. I can’t recall in all my life seeing complete desert like conditions at the lakes region versus things staying green here.

yep even the day 15 fantasy heat maps weren't there

Per ice core samples at NP. Now we're even. Please, no more cc talk in this thread. Tia

I think we all know warm water is the fuel it needs, but it goes to show you how fickle these things are. You can have water that’s boiling below it, but if one atmospheric factor is off, you’re not getting much.

About what Ed got. We got pretty screwed with only 1"

Lake of fire?

The low of 41 at PIT this morning, while short of the daily record of 37, is tied for the 6th coldest low on or before September 8th, all of which occurred in the 1960s and 1980s. Last time we were this cold this early was 9/7/1988.

These last three weeks must have been miserable for you

We could be stein and burning by Oct here with no rains

It's officially cat space heater season. The best season!

Interesting. The much larger Great Lakes have dropped some but not to that extent. Obviously takes a lot more time for levels to change due to the total mass and large drainage basin. Looking at Huron-Michigan (technically a single lake system), the current value is the lowest for September since 2014, although from 1999 through 2014, every September was lower than the present. Conversely from 1967 through 1998, every September had a higher lake level than present with the exception of September 1990, which was 0.04 meters lower than this year. It looks like the well-known 1988 drought likely led to that brief period of low waters during an otherwise pluvial period. The Great Lakes almost always drop this time of the year, with annual minimum heights typically occurring in late winter and maximum heights in late summer. If it stays dry, that'll likely occur even quicker than climo averages. So I suspect the final value for September will be as low or lower than that reading from 1990 as the lake should continue dropping [especially if the current forecasts hold]. But it would probably take another year of lower precipitation to start reaching the lows of the early 2000s.

I remember that cold blast. I was supposed to fly to Greece on the 2nd but there was engine trouble on my plane and I had to leave the next day instead. Because of that I was able to catch that intense CAA and experience lows in the mid 50s the next morning when I would have otherwise missed them.

Has the Holden storm from Saturday been EF rated yet?

dialed in

December snowfall is I think the stat best correlated with overall snow for the winter in nyc. It's very rare to get a snowy December and have the rest of the winter be a dud (has this ever happened ?), and also rare to have a snow free December result in an above average winter (maybe only 15-16?).

Yeah, this drought has been crazy. Looks like the Mississippi River will be seeing extremely low levels for a fourth consecutive fall: The Mississippi River is Set to Fall to Severe Levels for the Fourth Year in a Row I know the gauge at Memphis had three of its 4 lowest gauge readings in the last 3 years. Last year reached at least -10.41 feet in early November, but this chart was never updated. Crazy to just be blowing out the 1988 & 2012 droughts ever single year with hardly a peep? I'm sure dredging/channel deepening is aiding these very low gauge heights (i.e., the same volume of water may pass with a lower river level) but still..

Lake Winni nearing it’s lowest level in 40+ years for this time of year.

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

the overnight low was 41 which explains why I had a cat draped over me in the early morning hours.

Yeah. The forecast for next week is going downhill. It's hard for this area to stay pleasant for more than a week.

SE continues to win. .12 total here.

Yeah, no end in sight either. Only another 0.10" so far in September, with little precipitation expected over the next two weeks. Only "abnormally dry" though according to NOAA.

I was happy to get the PNA mismatch potential last October from the early MJO indicator back in October which was a key part of the seasonal 500 mb pattern. Then the under 4” snow last December around NYC signaled another below average snowfall season. I tend to score long range seasonal forecasts like how the batting average is regarded in baseball. All you need to have a shot at the batting title in any given year is to get a hit only around 33% of the time. So if you get at least 1 aspect of the 3 key elements including 500mb pattern, P-types and amounts with the storm track, and the temperatures correct then I will consider it a good showing from seasonal outlook.