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I think we've come a long way the last 2 winters since 23-24 where it seems like the odds we get any 23-24 or December 2015 type thing with this El Nino are going down quite a bit. I really don't think we will be seeing any La Nina looks with this Nino. I think Dec will much more resemble 72/82/97 here than it will 2015, that was just a rare example of where the MJO somehow totally overwhelmed a strong ENSO signal and 23-24 again looked like 18-19 or 19-20, whichever one was the Nino where the atmosphere never coupled. There are some weather bets on some of the rogue sites for cities like ATL/BHM/BNA having zero 70 degree days from 12/1-1/31 this year, that has not happened for any of the 3 since the winter of 13-14, may happen this year I think.

Drought monitor shows the flash drought which resulted from that crappy Sept. Oh it just keeps getting better! ECMWF has a cool bias. Count on warmer verification than the weeklies show. Much warmer than the CFS. This package I favor the lowly GEFS weeklies - which are warm. EC is clearly off track below. After 10 days or so of +PNA (cooler SE) the out of phase PDO is gonna catch up. I expect many busts this winter as temps verify warmer than 6-15 day forecasts. Super Nino is just going to flood the Atmo warm. Even if it's warm out West it'll be difficult to cool off the Southeast with neutral to slightly BN heights.

Man, if I’m reading that first link right, that’s real cold compared to today. 80.6° at WXW1 60.8° here at WXW2

Warm and rainy?

80 and dews. Toasty.

I’m just looking forward to the very early and late season snowstorms. The 6z fantasy range GFS has a few inches of snow in 2 weeks…probably won’t happen but I love knowing it’s not totally far fetched!

77F. heat wave.

It is fall, no matter what the temps say for today I am eating some soup for lunch.

We had 107% of average rain April-June but only 66% for July-Sept. However, we had frosts on 23-24 and 8 other September mornings in the 30s. Whatever the reason, the colors have been spectacular. Currently I'm watching sugar maple leaves raining past the window, despite nearly calm wind and 60s, so we'll soon be past peak. The morning low of 60 here is 20° AN, and yesterday's 73 was only one degree below the warmest we had last month. Clouds still look thick, so I don't think we'll get much past 70, if any at all.

I know it is hard to accept because of Fay’s tenacity, but the 0Z UKMET actually dropped her coming back to being a TC. Poor Fay

Right on schedule here along rt 2 ...this leg of it anyway. Color schemes are also species consistent without unusuals. This is the first 'climatological foliage' behaving year in some time...

81 out, kinda clear skues but hazey.

It was a pretty good winter for sure, Even though we missed out on the Biggie in February. would be nice to have a repeat this Winter

Push that front south... I want to play some baseball

no winter

We always are ahead of most places in CT other than NW CT for foliage despite never being cold at night . I really think it’s mainly due to the cooler days than other areas. It’s about peak for maples this weekend . But Oaks mainly green with some yellows . We really two peak seasons here. One for other species and another for Oaks

Fixin to reverse jinx myself a 30"er

Sunday looking like diddly squat in terms of moisture. Potentially more tonight/tomorrow am? But looks hit and miss.

I have some lespedeza in the lawn near the house and prostrate knotweed growing in the driveway and the edges. I don’t mind some weeds, but those 2 I can do without. My little meadow area by the run has milky spurge growing in there too. Anyone ever use one of those propane weed torches? I’ve been thinking about cooking the affected areas next spring. I know it will kill everything, but I assume the grass will eventually grow back.

I’ve long thought if you wanted a poster child for warming, BTV is it. Before the new normals came out, it felt like every month started at +2 as a baseline. The place just doesn’t cool off at night anymore for the most part.

No disagreement ... it's a low probability return. sure. The tussle I meant to expand upon is that as this fledgling season is coming in, there is increasing modeled injects off the NE Pac of these -2 SD polar anomalies. They're rocketing along the interface of a vast southern geopotential positive anomaly. Whenever they do, that S/W moves from MT to NS in about a coffee break. Really fast. These -2 waves may in fact expose a suppressed -PDO type exertion - a sort of "non-linear"/invisible lingering -PDOness. heh. somethin like that... So early on, the conflict may be brewing. I hear you about 2023 but I thought of 2023 as not a real El Nino frankly. Yeah, it met the criteria of course in the traditional scope and scale. Of course. But even in a RONI reprocessing, RONI isn't perfect either... My thing is that the Earth system was still in the throws really of registering that giant spring burst in thermal recovery that took place. It superseded the ENSO onset - and was also ... ( I feel strongly ) wrongly attributed to being because of the onsetting El NINO... but it was the wrong epistemic direction. Because the former happened first! we can go around and around with that... but the point is, there were concurrent massive signals and it'll take a lot more necessary math and science in order to figure out what was really proxy on that ensuing winter. I think having a whole planet warm a half degree C (fun trivia: ~ equivalent to 250 times the yield of the world's nuclear arsenal detonated at once. If we include the jump in the ocean to that calculation, it's thousands of time greater, btw -) needs to unequivocally explained before believing the ENSO that year was proxy over something with enough energy to holocaust the planet 250 times over. I dunno, but now years on that warm burst is hypothetically, fully 'absorbed' and accounted for in the ongoing machinery of the ID CGT ( Intradecadal circum-global teleconnector)...yet, we are left with a -PDO suggestion that should not be there given this scope of ENSO. These are compelling concepts for me anyway- Or not.. could all turn out to be nothin. But in the balance... teetering one way or the other comes down to unbalanced forcing.