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ULL magic, this might be a unicorn

Florence, SC forecast still saying “less than a tenth” accumulation but every map I’ve seen yall post has us getting at least a few inches. Assuming there’s not enough confidence for them to even forecast accumulation yet…

Here’s at TYS… .

Wouldn’t it would be more likely to get a west-based Nino instead of an east-based one partially due to the fact of this year’s east-based Nina?

I think between last February and last week I've finally gotten the joy of this hobby beaten out of me. At this point it simply is what it is and the atmosphere will do what it will. No need to get upset or invested about it until its snowing; after all, when in my life has it trended to not ruin a storm.

As a red line commuter, it’s pretty stunning how badly the storm recovery has been. 25+ minute waits for most trains, constant delays, a total of two disabled trains just today. Ubers easily 2x the cost they would usually be. Another big storm would cause serious problems. Bring it on anyway

Quick count about 18%.

Shades of 11 years ago, shield your eyes

The Euro trended stronger with the ULL. WNC is in a great spot!

The EPS was around 20 percent higher with QPF vs 12z.

Must be some interesting lows on the ensembles

If 0z tics less qpf, that will be something like the 10th run in a row with the 12/0 vs 18/6 precip shift.

Fujiwhara for the win

Gonna need another massive leap at 0z. We just have no time left and need massive changes. It’s just a tease. Enough to smoke Boston and maybe NYC and the coast.

Looking good fellas. 00Z NAM will be fun I think

Pretty interesting AFD from Mt Holly- Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic zone along the coast. In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at this time. Generally speaking, the latest 12z deterministic guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the storm`s precip shield. The GFS has shifted slightly farther S/E with the storm track and precip shield compared to the 0z run while the ECMWF has shifted a bit west. There also continues to be spread among the ensembles. One thing that`s interesting to note though is that the RGEM (the Canadian model) appears to be supporting a track near or a bit west of the model consensus based on its placement of upper level features at the end of its run at 84 hours out (7PM Saturday evening). This model generally does very well with these types of large scale winter systems. Potential storm impacts include not just heavy precipitation but also strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing wise, the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with the brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we get it. Given the very cold temperatures in place both at the surface and aloft, all snow is strongly favored in terms of precip type. The latest NBM probabilistic data has trended back up a bit. For snow amounts greater than 2 inches (plowable), the range is from around 60-70 percent near the coast to 40-50 percent near the I-95 corridor with lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ inches, these probs are around 30-40 percent near I-95 up to 50-60 percent near the coast.

Given the bullishness of the ensembles, it seems plenty of members are slingshotting it in some fashion…even if not the exact same track. Im still somewhat of a skeptic on this being big, but I think the path to a big event is ripping that dumbbell low NNW around the H5 low….Is feel better to start things a little further west.

Done!

Remember the old days when it was just 2-3 models? Now we have dozens. This hobby is so tiring

I agree. But this 7 year run has been pretty close to abysmal. Time to reshuffle the deck.

I just wanted to illustrate that it makes a difference which low will be dominant. The lead wave and the storm will almost certainly pass far too the east with little impact on most of the NYC area. If it's the second one, the storm will be more impactful.

Lots more hits this run. Will take p3

Considering the 18Z suite is still running probably not. Those maps are usually based on NBM probability I believe.

It was 2 members aka 4%

Its okay, some storms aren't meant to be. This storm will probably be one of them. Its not its fault or anything but was just the hand the atmosphere dealt us. That said, I hope we see a brilliant reverse model bust to "balance out" our last storm, or last February, but we aren't owed it.