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  2. vortex95
    Mean trough position in the E UFN. So solid big WxWiz weenie tstm chances are there!
  3. vortex95
    Looks like we stay in semi-active to active period for the region UFN. Showers and tstms every day in some form in at least parts of region thru Sat and maybe Sun. GFS and ECMWF are a lot different for Sun. The GFS has a much stronger trough at 500 and actually develops a small nor'easter offshore. ECMWF nothing at all. The GFS solution suggests a lot of rain. Svr risk for the region highly dependent on where the sfc low tracks. Longer-range, it appears the mean trough position will remain in place in the E, so should be decent chances for some sig tstm events. Last July was quite good, but ugh, next to nothing in Aug, and quite cool much of the time. Actually had some cold air damning a few times IIRC!
  4. snowman19
    100%. The 30C isotherm is already east of the dateline and the EURO seasonal started showing this happening last month, projecting that the 30C isotherm will push all the way to 120E by November, which would be an all time record. I absolutely believe it given the huge WWBs we’ve been seeing since April. This year, unlike 2015, we have a complete trade wind reversal with WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs pushing well east of the dateline with no resistance….that is going to keep pushing the 30C warm pool east. We didn’t see that in 2015, in fact, we actually saw EWBs and the trade winds fighting back even up to this point in time…this year, not even close. The surface from region 3.4 to region 3, to region 1+2 is warmer and the subsurface is warmer than 2015 with more substantial WWBs and DWKWs. Region 4 is actually cooling now. The TC/typhoon parade projected to begin this month in the WPAC and the EPAC and the MJO progression is only going to reinforce it (WWBs, DWKWs) Wow:
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    July ECMWF run.. it has a warm bias but wow
  6. vortex95
    Good info. In weak flow when there is lots of storms firing and chaotic, the sheer number of mesoscale factors going at once inevitably leads to a very local environment that can support a supercell for a short time. FL this time of year, all those storms that fire daily, those isolated wind or tornado events you see, are due to the numerous storm interactions. But it's impossible to fcst this b/c such small-scale factors can not be accounted for in the models. It's so conditional and variable! In certain cases, you can get an intense tornado in wind profile that doesn't look conducive at all. This occurs most often when you have huge amounts of CAPE (5000+) and a weak front or boundary present. A storm can fire and if it deviates a lot (more than 90 deg) from the environmental wind flow by virtue of back-building along the front/boundary, it can become a strong supercell. So even though the environmental helicity is low, the storm-relative helicity is large, and an intense tornado can result. The two most striking examples of this was the Plainfield IL Aug 28, 1990 and Jarrell TX May 27, 1997 events. Both devastating F5s and the storms deviated a very hard right w/ CAPE ~7000 present.
  7. Today
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Science forum bro. I don't think a -EPO can't happen.. that's more possible than historical analog suggests, but +PNA has been really hard to come by in this peak decadal -PDO or whatever is going on.
  9. GaWx
    Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd: June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
  10. GaWx
    The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues:
  11. so_whats_happening
    The difference in overall depth of the warm anomalies looks to be an artifact of the -PDO still being around. During the 2023-24 Nino this was centered around 130-140W. We also are lacking a significant negative anomaly region developing near the Dateline. I gotta ask the question though are we seeing Nino take on a new form with SSTs the way they are globally?
  12. vortex95
    Patricia's 872 mb was estimated. Recon timing was such we missed its absolute peak. One got 880 mb and the next 879 mb, but in between those (it was over 6 apart, maybe 12?), Patricia was still in RI mode, and then had slightly weakened a bit on satellite when recon measured 879 mb. So we know it was lower that 879 mb. 872 mb was decided on somewhat subjectively, but it easily could have been lower than that. I have noticed when it comes to world records, the WMO will avoid estimates as to the official record, and estimating a world record has it own logistical and social issues! Something similar occurred w/ Isabel in 2003. Its first recon was cancelled and it was the same day it peaked intensity. When the first recon got there the next day, Isabel had undergone an ERC and the eye diameter had almost doubled, yet they still found 920 mb / 140 kt. In the BT data, Isabel is listed as 915 mb / 145 kt the day before the recon, but given what we know about ERCs and how much the eye pressure typical rises in a cycle, I bet Isabel actually had a min pressure 900-905 mb! Then Isabel went on to be the best example of an annular hurricane in the Atlantic we have see since the satellite era began!
  13. so_whats_happening
    Im not going to play catch up since I have last been on here but here is TAO from May through July 4th, I'll be taking out May next update around mid month.
  14. CPcantmeasuresnow
    4.59 inches here.
  15. Brasiluvsnow
    Had to drain the pool twice today ,,,just did it again after I walked the dog,,,,and still raining here in New City
  16. wxmeddler
    Apparently there are water rescue calls starting to appear in Manassas.
  17. CPcantmeasuresnow
    At 4.59 inches now in Highland Mills. Hopefully most of this hit the reservoirs.
  18. so_whats_happening
    If anyone finds discrepancies in the numbers please let me know. For the deductions for June I picked 7 stations to knock down 1 point and 6 stations for RJay.
  19. wncsnow
    .37 today
  20. HokieEnginerd
    Just west of there, but yeah. Hit 3 inches a few minutes ago and have had house shaking thunder for the better part of an hour. I haven't seen anything like this in a LONG time.
  21. so_whats_happening
    Im honestly debating on the late entries for this month (July) as it stands these are the forecasts and the what coinciding late entry percentages look like. Ill maul it over and if see if anyone else wants to chime in about it. Ill see if I can also do a quick update for max temps and where they stand thus far in a week or so.
  22. dendrite
    Damn 5.47” for Shabbs
  23. pazzo83
    yeah anyone near Manassas looks like they are getting hammered.
  24. Coach McGuirk
    Finally some rain. Yay.
  25. so_whats_happening
    Ok sorry for the delay got back on the 4th and was bombarded by storms, lost power and internet. Then yesterday we had flash flooding still no power, hope it comes back tomorrow. We had very little movement in numbers. We had a few late entries and they are marked with * 1% for those affected most were 7 points off RJAY ended up only 6 points off the original total so not much of a difference. I included a consensus number to both GaWx and Stormchaserchuck for the months they were missing to get an idea if they had played through where they would stand in the far right column.
  26. JerseyWx
    Have had several periods of that soaking type rain that feels tropical in nature throughout the day. Up to 1.5" now. Far below some other areas, but you can already see the life coming back to the vegetation and grass. This type of event is better for doing that than those brief torrential downpours from a cell.
  27. HokieEnginerd
    I am right under the western side of that cell. We have gotten about 2 in in under and hour and it is still coming down.
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