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Nowcasts and storm updates, particularly during extreme weather events (severe weather, winter storms, etc.) are absolutely critical and part of the forecasting process

@Maestrobjwa keep in mind for a pattern to be valid you have to be able to explain WHY the pattern is happening. Otherwise it's likely the pattern is simply random. If you flipped heads 5 times in a row, and the only coin flips you ever saw in your life were those 5, you would deduce that coin flips result in heads if you are simply looking for patters and not factoring in random chance and causality.

2 counter points. 1) a sample size of 5 is way too small to pull a meaningful trend from 2) your sample is arbitrary. What made you include 1973 with a peak ONI of 1.9 and exclude 2024 with a peak ONI of 2.1? If you include 2024 then we are due this year. If you exclude both of those years, or just 1973 which most do not consider a "SUPER" nino, the whole pattern disappears. Either way I think my first point is the valid one...it's too small a sample size to try to find patterns like that. Most of your patterns are simply artifacts of random chaos in a stochastic system.

Wrong thread but I got a relacement sled for the one I had stolen. 2021 Enduro 900. Has about 3500 miles on it. Of course we all know that if we have a crappy winter it will be my fault and not El Nino!

Sure, but I think there is value in the GP being updated on whether a forecast is turning out better or worse than predicted. Most of the time, the forecast is the forecast and the changes are so minor they need not be discussed. But for “higher end” events, periodic updates can be helpful—both to the curmudgeon that thinks because the forests haven’t been flattened in the first hour of a storm that a storm is a bust, and the soccer mom that is anxious about taking the kids to the park when it’s not likely to rain heavily now that a storm has taken shape.

Snow fell in Mammoth Lakes today. That is even early by their standards.

I think I jumped to the analysis because I fully expect us to fail this time. I can't ignore the every-other super niño trend. 66' yes, 73'--no, 83' yes, 98'--no, 16'--yes, so it feels like this time will be a no. Not scientific, but just trend... As for silver lining? Nah I wasn't trying to intentionally dig for one--remember I'm not optimistic enough for some around here, lol For me it's a matter of how long it'll be before we see significant snow again. I don't doubt things have changed. But I'd love to see what happens when we get into a +PDO regime again and see if it helps. But I'm at the point where I'm slowly expecting things to work less and less. But we'll see...

When the hell is this freaking drizzle going to end? It been off and on all damn day.

if you aren't in Boston, what is the point knowing what Boston's weather is at that exact moment? mets issue forecasts, not now casts you don't need a weatherman to tell you which way the wind is blowing

Southborough has 7”?

After nearly 7 inches the past two days I'm almost dead even compared to my yearly average. Still raining pretty good.

Now up to 1.24" through 3:15pm putting the 3 day total at: 2.55"

Wonder if the PDO in November or December gets to slightly positive. August 2026 -1.11 July 2026 -1.35 June 2026 -1.32 May 2026 -1.64 April 2026 -1.28 March 2026 -1.18 February 2026 -0.79 January 2026 -0.87 December 2025 -0.39 November 2025 -1.02 October 2025 -1.82 September 2025 -1.71 August 2025 -2.54 July 2025 -3.83 June 2025 -2.62

Just under 2.5" so far... Getting chilly out now but drying out a bit.

11.8" in Hanover and 11.4" in Harrisburg. Those locations lacked sufficient elevation to do well, though still muuuuch better than IAD, DCA and BWI.

Those analogs....pretty cold and snowy in December, except for 2012, but even that had some snow in Dec. Also 62-63 is coldest DJF winter (analysis since 1950), even colder than 1977 and 78. Fourth coldest is 2002-3. So....interesting.

PSU noted how 97-98 had close calls a number of times with DC at 35 and rain, Mason Dixon at 33 and slop and south central PA and n&w 31-32 and solid snows.

Multiple days of 80s coming up. Upper 80s for DC is also possible on Friday . After next week's cold shot warmth returns. Then back and forth.

Does this count as an excusal slip for me to leave work early?

Outlier, unfortunately. All other models taking the big time rain way south.

Wasn't it just last week people were questioning whether we saw the last 80s of the year? Lol. Barely even made it a week.

This is definitely the wettest day of the three in NW MA.