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0.21” imby/Columbia this morning.

I could be wrong, but I don't think the full link between Enso and climate was understood or established back then, or the ability to predict Enso states accurately. That might explain at least part of it.

GFS has been trending towards some trailing tail-end energy of the cold front passing through the Northeast on Monday cutting off and drifting southwest under the ridge. The Euro and Canadian are both showing it and trending towards it too, albeit weaker. Certainly couldn't rule out a subtropical type system developing should this scenario play out.

Looks like we will run the gauntlet of misery for the whole month. The advertised cold fronts keep getting push back and blunted. If we get lucky, we might have a few days of normal temps by next weekend.

I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

Temps in the 60's with shwrs/stm moving through. Looks like a decent chance of much needed rains today into tonight.

Random find. I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

Got an update on that storm.

I see the models are showing some very heavy downpours for early Sunday morning. The ground has really dried out here over the last week, so I'll gladly take some rain for the vegetable garden. Hopefully it'll happen.

Here are the charts for each region of the US, along with the US as a whole, for Summer anoms.

Being a half mile north of you must have helped me this time. 0.08" overnight. Noticed leaves falling off trees in my neighborhood. No color let. Guess it is stress from dry/hot summer.

"Nino's"

Some incredible snows over the years at High Knob. The snowiest part of Virginia.

0.00 of rain. Tree line behind my house is fully into Fall mode. Getting some leaves changing.

Unbelievable. This pattern this whole summer has been insane. Targeting the same locations over and over and over again! Most frustrating weather season in memory

Besides the overall NAM Nest struggles this summer that you've documented, this looks to be a classic case of the NAM being too slow with the system, causing it to arrive at a very unfavorable time. Its timing is a clear outlier for now.

Thanks Don ( and forward TheClimateChanger ) What's disturbing about these kind of graphical results - which an observant sort may have noted over the years, they are not linearly rising, rather exponential - is that even if humanity's contribution to climate change were unrealistically ( impossible hypothetic state) suspended all at once, there seems to be a forgotten realization: The damage caused won't actually fully register for a number of decades. People don't realize just how dire this situation has become. The 2023 spring's ~ 1/2 a whole deg C leap in global wholesale systemic temperature, spanning mere months, evinces that there is a lag in the realization. People just stared at it. Moreover, the portions that are realized, ... are not always "catching up" in a kind, gentle administration. That proves they are unpredictable - otherwise, machine and man would have had a fucking clue that phenomenon was going to occur at all. That singular event should be vastly more alarming than humanity seems to have registered - evidenced be reactions et al. You just succeeded in moving an entire planetary system, a whole planet, ~ to 4 orders of magnitude more than the entire nuclear amament's thermal generation capacity. And it really collective sentiment reflection argues that the en masse either doesn't respect, or doesn't dimensionalize that significance for what it is - failing to do so... Either way, "life can't morally just go on as usual, yet it does without the necessary imperative in reproach. So what happens over the next decade(s)? Humanity only sees the weather of the present era ... There's an overwhelming tendency to recency bias there. There's a stark failure to extrapolate/visualize what this sort of future will bring because ... as an aside, despite our innovation capacity, that capacity doesn't extend nearly as far into the realm of consequence. In fact, the reaction appears to be entirely guided by what can be actually seen - so is entirely recency bias. Humans won't act with any sense of imperative until that threat is appealing. Meanwhile, continuing to add to a system that has a built in time delay, because the oceans are 90% absorbing of the thermal imbalance created by the shock C02 and other green house gasses the last 300 years of human activity has fluxed into the planetary system. Thereof is a calculation where that storage takes another 50+ years to recursively then find the longer term thermal equilibrium, in a truer ocean-atmospheric coupled state. One has to think of this as a built-in 'getting worse' factor - a scalar extent of which is completely unknown. But the specters of the last decade as any indicator? ...mm We can think of extrapolation thermal curves based upon varying exponentials... but, try extrapolating "phenomenological and/or consequence curves" themselves. None of which takes into consideration the "synergistic products" along the way.. Ironically, I happened across this article on Phys.org, "Future catastrophic weather could be 'far worse' than history suggests" ( https://phys.org/news/2026-09-future-catastrophic-weather-worse-history.html ) ..perhaps apropos

The other site shows -.41 as of 9/10. Still a rise, but not as dramatic.

No reason to think this won’t follow the season long trend of SW CT to NJ for big amounts. Probably a fairly narrow zone

The U.S. was fortunate that none of our regions experienced an extreme as high as France did. The Southwest finished their warmest summer at +3.5° and Colorado +3.4 against the warmest 1991-2020 normals. France finished at +6.4 and was their warmest summer. So they nearly doubled the departures experienced in our warmest regions. This is why they had such a large disruption to their agriculture industry. The warmest extremes relative to historic averages over the last decade in the CONUS have been focused in the winter and early spring rather than the summers.

Thanks Blizz. Look forward to it as well.