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Ya Nam is worse than 12z

paging @SnowenOutThere, looks like cville jack again.

I know many are down on this big warm up the up side however is this may actually offer a chance for a big coastal storm as the cold pattern relaxes.

on pivotal it looks like a good incoming on the NAM and then it hits a brick wall on the Potomac from hour 45 to 48 lol

"mild" ground temps + dp's above 32 + temps above 32 + windy + rain = rapid melt. also, if one has been looking at the pattern ahead, they would know a white christmas was never a guarantee.

If one wants to make inferences. The first 10 days of Dec are already colder than any entire month since IJD ASOS was commissioned in 1997. Bodes well for the rest of winter if these are analogs First 10 days and month 2002-12-10 20.9 0 2 2000-12-10 24.4 0 3 2003-12-10 26.1 0 4 2025-12-10 26.6 1 5 2007-12-10 27.3 0 6 2005-12-10 28.0 0 7 2010-12-10 29.4 23 2007 30.7 0 24 2013 30.2 0 25 2002 28.8 0 26 2010 28.7 0 27 2017 28.3 0 28 2005 27.9 0 29 2025 26.6 22 - 2000 26.6

Snowing pretty well now. 27.2°

Fair enough. We’ll see how this unfolds.

It’s doing that now in Allentown. We could end up with an inch here with the mix line way to the south.

I don't know where you are exactly, but you maybe be downsloping a bit on S/SW wind. Or maybe its just not enough lift into your area, not sure.

I’ve seen these types of events surprise. It’s a progressive setup but these quick hitters can pack a punch when things break right. Often when that does happen we don’t expect it, and it happens in the very short range. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.

If DCA gets 1.1" of snow or more in the next few days, it will be the snowiest December for them since Dec 2010... 15 years.

The 850mb freezing line is sinking south - now just north of Chester County and through Northern Berks county. If precip sticks around past 5pm we might see a few flakes as far south as Chesco.

Interesting. I am in Bethlehem Twp and it’s snowing steadily with a coating on the ground.

It's very cold on the backside of the system so there def could be some ocean enhancement on N or NNW winds.

Drove up to Jay Peak just brutal

If this weekend pans out, I will be pretty satisfied. Usually we spend December talking about snow chances in Jan and Feb. Now it's like having multiple threats in Jan but in Dec. I like the trend so far. Always a chance to over perform.

IMO, there's alot more that needs to happen than just trending west but I am also not necessarily sold on some of the recent trends we have seen with the ridging and better interaction of the two energies...we've seen this happen plenty of times of late where within this time range (3-5 days) there are these subtle shifts which trend better. I suspect by 12z Friday we will begin to see a trend back in the opposite direction with the heights in the west and energy interaction. Also, even with the better interaction of energies, the upper level dynamics still aren't very favorable for low pressure development at the sfc...we have to look closer to where the baroclinic zone is present to get some llvl spinup present and I think its just too far south to do any good for us. But that said, at least snow showers are still possible farther east.

Oh, I didn't know. I don't understand people like that.

Really did overperform !!! Thinking it could last another hour or so. Roads up here are caving even though they were treated from the last storm. Hopng for good outcome this weekend. Things seem to be coming in to agreement for something more than an inch...

Seeing how it’s like the only model showing anything not too enthusiastic yet. Need something else to get on board. Will see what Nam shows shortly.

Euro advertises some hang back moisture along coast/Cape Sunday evening, might be ocean enhanced as the low strengthens offshore

Psuhoffman said something that stuck with me, we've always been right on the line with events that would go in our favor. Now we seem to be just on the wrong side of that line, instead of just on the right side.

Same in Allentown now. This is overperforming a little bit. Steady snow which is sticking to the grass and my car. Looks like the R/S line is way south of here too with a snow report near Boyertown. I love these little surprise events.

Bangor PA. 33° snow, 0.5”