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I would go for 1.0 to 1.5 inch rainfalls on Wednesday into early Thursday, looks to me like Erin will pull in the frontal band rather than reinforcing it in place, so higher potential totals may not be in play. There will be some bracing weather by later Thursday into Friday, mid 70s with a strong northeast breeze, nights 45-50 outside the urban areas and 55-60 inside. A steady 68-70 F during the rainfall, but Wed max achieved before that, 73 F.

Oh f***! You're lucky you caught that early. Lyme is unpleasant, analplasmosis will floor you.

I'll mention too that the pattern coming up the last week of August looks like it'll be a lot like the spring pattern we just had down my way, with very wet and anomalously cool northwest flow. So I do think rolling forward the spring pattern (with appropriate modifications) will be useful this year as one of the many predictors.

I am curious as well. Given the current state and broad expanding wind field I would be SHOCKED if this strengthened significantly. That being said pressure falls might occur without winds coming up terribly much given the broad circulation. I’d say at this point a borderline cat 3 would be the ceiling but I’d lean more towards a Isabel-like cat 2

Second pass actually was less impressive than first. FL winds never surpassed 85 kts and pressure was a few ticks higher. This is a cat 1

Well, picked a great week to go to Wildwood NJ to visit family. Leaving tonight. I'll try to get some surf pix/vids when its most rough Thurs.

Interestingly 06z Euro initializes at 957 mb and still brings it down to 924 mb as it heads north of the Carolina coast...

No rain yesterday, but a light drizzle/mist since about 8 am here. Cloudy and patchy fog too. Currently 67.7/65.5.

Thanks. I was going by snowfall because that’s about all many here seem to care about. La Guardia had 33.2” and Kennedy had 30.9”. But good point about the sharp cutoff S of NYC. If I were to throw out 2016-7 due to the sharp cutoff, it would still be 35% of NYC winters with 30”+ vs 39% of all meaning only barely lower.

I always like to look at the spring pattern for a hint of how the next winter may evolve. Sometimes there can be some low frequency hints even further back. It's never in exactly the same spot, but if you look at the spring pattern the coming winter pattern often has a similar look, just shifted and amplified or deamplified. Spring 23 offered excellent hints about the winter of 23-24. Last winter wasn't quite as strong of a connection, but there were still hints of the east coast trough pattern as well as the ridging southwest of Greenland. For this year we've seen some interesting changes compared to both the last two years. It appears the low frequency forcing for ridging southwest of Greenland was finally gone this year, which would be a change if that rolls forward into the winter. On the other hand the spring trough moved west with more ridging along the east coast than last year. Theoretically that could mean troughs wanting to dump further west this year if it holds. The Pacific is unchanged so probably some good AK ridging pops up again. Maybe this isn't the most robust method out there, but I've found it has some utility.

What did 6z show?

A wet, ocean spray day at Dewey today. Forecast of sun from earlier in the week sadly incorrect in this summer of clouds and rain. Surf zone with 3 to 4 foot waves, Thursday is the day for peak surf.

unless you have irrigation, you might want to hold off on the seeding.

16-17 doesn't really belong on this list. Sure, it technically made 30 inches of snow in NYC (and much of that was due to a mid-March snowstorm), but as you went more south, it was a terrible winter. PHL only got 15 inches of snow, and places like Baltimore and DC only got 3 inches of snow, and had a Top 10 least snowy winter. Plus, all the other winters were near normal temperature (17-18 and 20-21), or well below average. 16-17 was a blow torch. 16-17 is one winter that had a very sharp cutoff, even more so than 07-08.

Also- pressure up to 960

verifying imby

Recon had max FL winds of only around 85 kts we will see what this pass shows but man this thing is on life support as a cat 2 at the moment

We analplasmosis.

Hurricane Erin, despite weakening significantly in the past 24 hours, may have one more round of strengthening in its arsenal. With a fetch of tropical storm force winds extending out hundreds of miles into the ocean piling up water over three days of high tide cycles, water levels from NC to SE Virginia could rival levels during Dorian and Irene. The Delmarva Peninsula to southern NJ could see a top 5 water level on record as well. https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/too-close-for-comfort

fortunate the heaviest bullseyes ended up rural and over the lake, shift that bullseye over the lake a bit nw and it would have been trouble for sure

Yes, you can track your fellow long islander’s surfing adventures at usersesh. https://discord.gg/umSDREbM

More drought brings earlier autumn leaf fall, Northern Hemisphere study finds

Really nice morning! Some heat later this eek (nothing bad) and then over the weekend and next week some fall feelings coming.

Alright maybe not over, but not sure much happens with Ferdy or whatver the name is.

This is the best hurricane tracking map to use...