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@Bluewave This is going to cause another massive WWB/DWKW and TC’s. IMO this El Niño surpasses 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 both in RONI and ONI….

Wiz will like the NW flow potential at the end of the ensembles.

0.46” in Lanco. .

Just shy of quarter inch and still raining. Between this and Saturday should be in much better shape.

Ill have to check but im pretty sure im close to 2 inches of rain so far.

We have been blessed with 1.88” so far, with another 0.50” possible.

What a great system this has been. Still raining this morning.

Picked up a a quarter inch overnight. Nice line of storms moving in again. Coming down hard now. Hopefully can squeeze out an inch when it's all said and done.

Yay, we got some rain, maybe a half an inch.

Don't forget 2023, the last Strong El Nino, had 20 named storms, which is tied for 4th highest all time. PDO was negative in 2023. We haven't had a single +PDO month in the 2020s

+9F was kind of a weak scale anyway

hail

Yeah I had a very brief heavy downpour that dropped .05". Taking a look at radar now before I go to bed, I see a decent batch of rain is approaching. So maybe we can get a quarter to third of an inch out of this event afterall.

Well, well, well…if it isn’t the GFS up to its old tricks again. The 18Z GFS literally gives Tahiti on 5/13 a record low May SLP due to a nearby tiny surface low that gets as low as 1002 mb, highly unusual for May as it’s ~12 mb/0.36” BN. This results in ~1004.5 mb Tahiti pressure on 5/13. How low is this vs May history back to 1992? Well, the record low is 1004.7 (5/10/2002, during another incoming Nino). Second lowest? 1006.1 (5/31/1997, another incoming El Niño). Other very low SLPs there in May were also during incoming El Niño periods: 1007.5 on 5/9/2015 and 1007.8 on 5/19/2009. Will the record low May Tahiti SLP verify? Very highly doubtful considering that only the 18Z GFS had it that low with a tiny low almost right on top of Tahiti whereas other models had no low: 18Z GFS: 1002 low very near Tahiti But other recent GFS runs have also had a tiny low nearby though not as close. The brand new 0Z has the low but it’s not as close nor as strong (1005 instead of 1002). So, its lowest 24 hour averaged Tahiti pressure is only down to 1009 mb (on 5/12). I thought it was a good idea to post this because this could cause a couple of very strong -SOIs 5/12-13. Even just down to 1009 at Tahiti like the 0Z GFS has would mean a -35ish 5/12 SOI with near avg Darwin SLPs. This reminds me to mention that while Tahiti SLPs have been BN to MBN for most of the last 30 days (common with incoming Nino), there still have been no high pressures at Darwin, which have largely been NN. This is near the opposite of how April of 1997 went. It had 17 days of Darwin SLP of 1012+ vs only one day of that in April of 2026! There are few, if any, 1012+ in sight as of now other than possibly today, which may end up just above 1012 at Darwin.

Nice line with thunder and lightning just to my west. Fingers crossed that it holds together.

Flakes on some of the higher peaks? 1.08” today

Gambled on an early to mid-April tour and we lucked out with a couple of decent storms on relatively low-key/conditional days. It was guided by Trey Greenwood and Ethan Moriarty (YouTubers Convective Chronicles and June First, respectively), so it was a lot of fun getting to hang out and talk storms with those guys. However ironically the best was on my way home (I had actually cancelled my flight plans and shortened my time on the tour to drive out to OKC instead, which was the reason I was in my vehicle and able to chase this day, also ironic for someone from Wisconsin I had started the day in Wichita and marathonned 9 hours to see a tornado in Minnesota):

One last freeze tonight and hopefully that is it until fall. Already down to 38 here. Only under a frost advisory but we always get a few degrees colder here in the valley.

Lol with the 0.04" today.

Yeah it is... My normal precip is around 48.50" for the calendar year. In 2025 I had around 35" so there's 13 of that 25" deficit in twelve months.

I’ve had 6 on me and 2 embedded. Batting .333

The rash can take a while to develop and there’s no guarantee you’ll have the rash, even if you do have Lyme or some other shitty tick born illness. Yeah, they’re everywhere and I feel like I say that every spring now.

Things should start getting interesting around the 15th. Dare I say things might be rocking starting the 20th or so with a SW trough forming

We are overdue for something to trend in the right direction...