All Activity

Good for him. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. I do think it’s a bit telling that apparently the SEC schools didn’t have much interest in him. I was listening to John Middlekauff on Cowherd’s podcast today and he was saying Daboll really wants the Penn State job. Not sure how I would feel about that one.

We had quite the snow squall right as I was picking up my first loaded trailer this morning. Wind blown, sideways falling, near whiteout "blizzard" for a time, which caused chaos on 81. A seven car, one tractor trailer crash southbound killed one motorist and had the freeway closed for 6 hours. Ironically, it was a slick overpass and not visibility that caused this one. Detouring through downtown Hazelton with a 53' trailer was not exactly on my to do list, but it's what I had to do, twice, to get my other two loads for the day

Low of 36 at 7:25am, High of 63 at 3:56pm

Lowest Nino 3.4 SSTs this fall (since Sept 1st)

37 up in the Catoctins already

Mean is livin' with the termites. I don't recall ever seeing such an extended, weak period of 10mb winds. Still decently below average into January and lower at that point than several days ago.

A cousin of mine played at Tech. Played in the first ever BCS Championship game. I can't tell you how STOKED I am to continue to have to deal with this fn guy.

D8-14 analogs from CPC today. Really pulling for the Dec 09 thread to be THE analog. 19851121 19561203 19851116 19721207 19641123 20051202 19961113 20081214 20091207 19801203

I recommend unpinning this thread and pinning John's December thread. All deterministic threads(as John notes) have December within their sites.

Thanks, man. Good points as well.

It’s a snow type of chilly outside rn.

latest 18Z GFS painting over .75" QPF for much of our area, has been trending upward:

Started a December thread since the op Euro/GFS are now there.

We are now into December with the OP runs. The first 7 to 10 days of December are likely to be warm, with a possible brief cold shot or two. After that, we have some potential factors that would introduce cold into the pattern. A cooperative MJO, a well place EPO ridge, a weaker than normal, if not split, SPV, all look possible as we head into the period of December 15thish towards the end of the month. See Carvers Weeklies post in the fall thread for what December looks like when the Euro has the MJO moving through more favorable areas.

Been a lot of -NAO showing up even on the warmer ensemble looks. That’s a good sign though because when the PAC finally relaxes a little that will help us a lot. You can see it in some of the OP runs heading into early December….the weeklies show what happens when you keep the NAO look with a better PAC. The PAC will prob be a bit stubborn for a couple weeks so I wouldn't really get too anxious before the first week of December.

The models are pretty reflective of the MJO. When they run and the MJO slows way down in 6, the warmth carries forward. The Euro is moving it to 7/8 faster than the GFS, which means cold arriving quicker by a bit vs the GFS. A weak SPV, MJO in 8, a cooperative Pacific, would mean cold and unfortunately, maybe dry cold. I saw another person talking about analog years and 1962-63 was in there again for them. It was 70s up until December 7th-10th time frame. Then it got colder and colder. This year had a similar October with a late frost, a similar November, with a cold and snow shot, then warmed up, it was a week La Nina with a falling QBO into deep negative. I also saw that in La Nina years when December had a -PNA, January almost always had a +PNA.

Where the hell is Red sky? We have a good one out there... old time slacker, I'll tell you.

Franklin heading to Hokie nation.

Very chilly today

That’s actually good to know. I’ll try on my wife’s iPad later.

Definitely a winter feel today with that wind.

Close call for the Twin Cities tomorrow. Bad thermals and a razor sharp northern edge.

Better cut this shit out before you get swarmed by the mountain top farmers...

30% bust 50% normal 20% boom

33 the high gust here