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No that level of weenie transcends the forum. Look at Twitter, especially Webb’s before he did his about face around Christmas.

If you want blood.. you got it !

Got a 1/2in from French Ticklers off of the lake down here. Moderate wind damage reports around the area, that was the bigger story along with the temp bottom falling out. 15 gusts over 50 at my station with a 10 min 38+ sustained period. Left Fl to get Tropical Storm force winds up here lol.

Winds have been howling much of the night and will continue this morning before slowly subsiding later today. The sun returns today but we stay with well below normal temperatures for at least the next week with temperatures remaining below freezing till at least Saturday. We only warm slightly to just above freezing this weekend into early next week. There is a chance of a little snow later New Years Eve into New Years Day. If we do see some snow amounts should be light.

Winds have been howling much of the night and will continue this morning before slowly subsiding later today. The sun returns today but we stay with well below normal temperatures for at least the next week with temperatures remaining below freezing till at least Saturday. We only warm slightly to just above freezing this weekend into early next week. There is a chance of a little snow later New Years Eve into New Years Day. If we do see some snow amounts should be light.

Yea, def. a very bad sign if we don't get anything major in the next two weeks.

What was the one that gave central CT 12-16” on Feb 13, 2024. Was that near the benchmark?

Who was the met?

As a novice/amateur I’d state it’s too soon to give up but if we stay dry thru mid Jan with nothing still on the horizon, it’s lights out I think.

If this follows the tenor of this season…it’ll probably juice up some. 1-3” would be a nice refresher.

I know we had one that was rain last year

Can confirm we had about 1/2 inch overnight. I'm about 5.1 miles NNE of Jonesborough on the map, south of I-81. Was a total surprise. https://freeimage.host/i/fXqnsh7 https://freeimage.host/i/fXqn4kl https://freeimage.host/i/fXqnLQ9

Either Jan 2024 or 2022

Earthlight likes the pattern ahead for a big east coast snowstorm.

Agreed. This pattern is good for some lighter snows, but until we have a big PNA spike, no larger storm is making its way to our area. I think the OPs and the Ensembles were overzealous with the large storms they were depicting past few days. In reality, they were probably just signaling a pattern change, but the way models are….. you know the rest

Whether you like Bamwx or not, he has some great explanations for coming pattern, and should watch.

Its always the same person who keeps doing it.

She was the last benchmark ish bomb?

What I will say is that I think guidance is underselling the emergence of the PNA...I can see this storm burgeoning back into existence with relatively little lead time when that correction is made.

he also said to ignore the models that showed a warm Dec 18-28 window because of Phase 8. bad bam bad bam

"a model run comes in, people rejoice. a model run comes in, people jump off a cliff" - he must browse this forum.

Very astute observation there PF! We were all standing at the top of Vista Peak and commenting on the amazing views of the Adirondacks/Whiteface (along with most visitors that were getting off the lift) and my younger son caught that nuance of the view immediately. He was quickly looking for a word and in the guessing game I threw out “mirage” and a few other things until my wife finally realized he was looking for “mesa”. What he had actually first noticed was how surprisingly glacier-like that col to the right of Whiteface looked (more than usual), and we started talking about local examples like Lake Willoughby. It was shortly after that when the flat appearance of the peaks to its right caught our attention. I did comment that the col looked a bit more U-shaped than usual, but without the aid of the lens, it wasn’t immediately obvious whether the overly flat appearance of the peaks to the right was due to mirage or simply due to a localized area with a lower cloud ceiling. But once you see the image with the help of the camera lens, its very obvious that its Fata Morgana – you can see the refraction ripples in various spots in the image. It’s interesting that the area around Whiteface itself seemed less affected, but I bet more people would have noticed with the naked eye if something had been going on there.

That ain’t science Paul…it’s seeing that what you’re saying isn’t applying to any other region at this time. And What I have that you don’t is life experience…your a kid that hasn’t lived through what I have. I’ve seen this shit before first hand…you have not. So perhaps, you are the one that doesn’t understand.