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That’s what they do

Every. Fucking. Event.

I'd do the same I guess. Still sucks

I'm in it as well.

Some nice goodies on Monday on gfs. That’s high ratio fluff looking at soundings.

Bruh...10 years without a 6" snowstorm. A very low bar. And now that drought is looking to continue based on trends...so yeah.

I don't see 10 tbh, maybe in the northern Bronx but this looks to be a quick heavy thump with a few hours of heavy rates. 4-8" might be a better call

The lead in forecast evolution for tomorrow's storm reminds me a lot of the December 2020 across our area (differences of course especially SNE and mid-Atl). The big snows for that one slipped away too but the impact was still significant locally.

I'll report back. I would be about 10-15 miles north.

hype .... sells

He’s been rooting against us the whole time lol

so what is the best mesoscale model to use this go around ? The HRRR performed well last weekend

Idk…I think our areas are gonna get off the schneid (the wizards are another story). Good ratios will save us before the pingers arrive.

Hefty avg departures yesterday, upper -20's to low -30's, across MN/WI. Very significant cold wave. From a wx stand point, love it. From a practical one, hate it. Too harsh.

Looks like we are going to battle here, Im just north and you are just south....we went from wiffing to sleet

Looks like about a 15z flip for DC on the GFS..assuming that we usually flip earlier than modeled (just like WAA precip starts earlier than modeled), its still a nice thump and I liked seeing it add ~0.1” QPF over 6z. Still like my 6-10”. Not sure why there’s such doom and gloom, it’s not like we’re staring down a rainstorm now.

6-10 inches by followed by 2 inches of sleet! this snow will last into March lol Sleet is happening we got consensus now we have to just look at radar and nowcast

That's one hell of a thump just north of the mix line.

The 34 degree rain is more concerning imo.

WB 12Z GFS storm totals

Moral of the story after 12z for south Coast, thump is heavier, but shorter. Likely evens out if we get some crazy rates for a few hours

Sleet intrusion more pronounced on 12z GFS, still a nice front end thump. Lancaster ranges from 8-13" from southern border to Etown.

If you have heavy rates you got snow

I'm just gonna hug this while we wait for the Euro

Some AM local station updates.