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Mike, this is the most useful thing anyone has put in this thread, and it changes my position on several points. Thank you for doing the archival work rather than just asserting it - although Charlie has done some of this in the past but not this exhaustively in my view. Taking your points in order. You're right that "undocumented" in the algorithm's metadata linkage is not the same as "no documentation exists." I was treating the two as equivalent and that was not correct. Your figure shows real events behind most of the Coatesville breaks, and the burden argument is fair — I shouldn't claim an absence of records without going through the 530-1s, the deeds and the aerials first. I hadn't. Although again Charile has done some work with those. You're also right that a high rate of undocumented detections is expected from a detector built to catch undocumented changes, so the 86% figure doesn't carry the weight I was giving it. I'd already dropped that argument. I have been communicating directly with NCEI and they shared their changepoint list for this station — it shows 4 of 12 linked to documented events, not zero, so the Berkeley code counts were never a good proxy for what the PHA is doing. On the ramp: you're right and I'll withdraw it. Many small stacked breaks produce a ramp-shaped cumulative. I proved your point without meaning to — cumulating NCEI's twelve discrete changepoints gives a series that fits a straight line at r-squared 0.495. That's a stack of steps looking smooth, exactly as you say. Zero-adjustment stations and the diurnal range point are both fair too. A detector leaving clean stations alone is working, and DTR divergence is a studied phenomenon rather than a contradiction. And I accept that a handful of stations in one county is a noisy sample by nature. Two places I'd push back a little, not on the substance but on how firmly it's stated. Your own figure marks 1920 unresolved. And I'd read the 1959-1976 group differently to the header on it. The box says five breaks, but NOAA only has two in that window — 1959 and 1971. The other three are BEST-only. And BEST's five nearly cancel: -0.50, +0.37, +0.02, +0.72, -0.71 comes to -0.10 F net across seventeen years, which isn't doing much work. NOAA's two come to +0.40 F, and that's the direction you'd correct for spurious cooling, not for a station warming under encroaching infrastructure. Which brings me to the part I can't reconcile. Moves to progressively cooler sites implies the raw data acquires spurious cooling and needs the later data warmed — which matches what NOAA applied. Infrastructure growing up around the site implies the opposite. Both are in your account of this window. Which one do you think is driving it? For what it's worth, your 1959 and 1971 values match NCEI's changepoint list for this station exactly once converted — -0.54 and +0.94 F against -0.28 and +0.53 C. So we're working from the same PHA output, which is great to know!. That window also stops something I was about to post. I ran a segmented breakpoint analysis on the raw daily data and it attributed one concordant discontinuity to Coatesville, January 1973. I then fitted the 1952-82 trend with that single step in the model. If there are more real breaks in that window, my model is under-specified and the number isn't worth quoting. I'm going to refit it against the full break set before I use it. If it doesn't survive, I'll say so here. The one thing still open is narrower and comes out of NCEI's own files rather than the station history. Cumulating their twelve changepoints reproduces +0.123 C/decade of adjustment trend. The actual adjusted-minus-unadjusted trend for the same station and years is +0.184. About a third isn't in any listed changepoint. It isn't rounding, and it isn't run-to-run variation — I compared two pulls of the adjusted series two days apart and they were identical across all 119 years at West Chester. I've asked NCEI what accounts for it rather than guessing, and I'll post their answer either way. Would you be willing to share your compiled 530-1 and deed work for Coatesville, and whatever you have for West Chester? I'd rather build on it than duplicate it badly, and I'll take your point about the 1978, 1982 and 1988 West Chester breaks — the Daily Local should have left a trail worth chasing. Charlie, I think most of the above answers you as well. You were right that a 35-year regression is not a breakpoint test, and running it properly is what led here. On 1945-49 specifically, NCEI's list has a documented move at 1946-01 with a +0.79 C step, so something documented did happen there. I still can't test that window myself — only three Chester County stations cover 1930-1975 with continuity and attribution needs four — so I'm not going to claim it either way. Paul

Ugh. How is this not getting more backlash? Seems to be a pretty big deal to me.

This Aug 1871 hurricane made landfall on the Big Island as an estimated Cat 3. Details analysis here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/1/bams-d-16-0333.1.xml

2 inches more than me. Of course the drought monitor says it has lessened.

That JMA output is textbook Modoki composite. Again, I think that is overdone in the seasonal mean, but it is what it is.

I sense we're incrementally inching closer, year by year, to the 'winter it didn't snow' Up N that's more likely just a shockingly low season total, but ranging to a phatty 0 at LGA and Logan. ORH got 1.5" of glop on January 7th and white pawed their way to more climate denial excuses. Sardonic aside, eventually that does have to happen. It'll be once ...then 5 years goes by, a span that host so-so's and one winter that is phenomenal, as much for snow as it will be enabling. Then, it happens again so soon? huh. Eventually ... they're happening more frequently and viola, "we're not Va Beach" This is a toad in the pan thing -

Pretty good chance we get TC genesis here. Gradual organization continuing.

Wouldn't want to experience the damage the hail of this size creates. Thanks for posting!

Now that the follow up wave in the Tropical Atlantic has been designated as Invest 94L and has a decent chance of development, I'm breaking out discussion into a new thread. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Had nice storm around 2am. Got 1/4" of rain. Warm out but a cool breeze making things tolerable.

I am really starting to wonder if a brief tornado touchdown between Milford/Orange and then touched down again around Lighthouse Point. We'll have to see if the NWS sends out anyone to survey.

Very localized. Only damage seems to be Lighthouse point and the area that says woodmont on your radar screenshot.

Hyped to see how the train ends up later, was "worried" about a near total shut out but from my model hawking it looks like the action may at least start as far north as 88ish. On the one hand, rooting for IYBY inundation is a special kind of masochism for obvious reasons, especially with flash flooding being a proven concern for my building's parking lot. But I also can't recall the last time I personally experienced the sort of train where the ~GV+ genuinely just keeps rolling through overhead for hours. At least I don't have a basement to worry about...

Nice western ridge

Looks like the carousel building took a direct hit. https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/new-haven/lighthouse-point-park-in-new-haven-closed-due-to-storm-damage/

Just leaving this here…congrats Hawaii.

There was one winter recently that JB went warm and snowless. That was a sign you knew something bad was coming because not even JB could find a path to victory.

Looking through at mesoanalysis last night and there is nothing really jumping out. There had to have been some sort of mesoscale or microscale interaction to really enhance things. But this is really nuts...80-100+ mph straight-lines is not easy to accomplish, especially here and especially at night.

August 13 1964: Minnesota receives a taste of fall, with lows of 26 in Bigfork and 30 in Campbell. For Thursday, August 13, 2026 1831 - The Great Barbados Hurricane was an intense Category 4 hurricane that left cataclysmic damage across the Caribbean and Louisiana in 1831. From August 11 through the 13, Bermudians were amazed to see the sun with a decidedly blue appearance, giving off an eerie blue light when it shone into rooms and other enclosed places. Ships at sea as far west as Cape Hatteras reported that "their white sails appeared a light blue colour." A month later it was learned that the astounding blue sunlight had coincided with a terrible hurricane that caused 1,477 people to lose their lives. It was assumed that the hurricane was intensive enough to cause an unusual disturbance in the higher atmospheric strata, and refraction, diffraction or absorption of light rays, to produce the blue reflection. Because the sun appeared bluish-green, Nat Turner took this as the final signal and began a slave rebellion a week later on August 21. 1919 - High winds and heavy rain struck the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. In New Jersey, winds gusted to 60 mph at Atlantic City, and nine inches of rain fell at Tuckerton. The wind and rain leveled crops and stripped trees of fruit causing several million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1980 - The afternoon high at New York City was just 89 degrees. But there were fifteen days of 90 degree heat during the month, their hottest August of record. (The Weather Channel) 1985 - Hail larger than golf balls, driven by 70 mph winds, moved down crops, stripped trees, and broke windows, near Logan KS. Road graders cleared three foot drifts of hail on Kansas Highway 9 east of Logan. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms deluged the Central Gulf Coast States with torrential rains. Thunderstorms in Mississippi drenched Marion County with up to 15 inches of rain during the morning hours, with 12.2 inches reported at Columbia. Floodwaters swept cars away in the Lakeview subdivision of Columbia when the the Lakeview Dam broke. Flash flooding caused more than three million dollars damage in Marion County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A dozen cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Lansing MI reported a record 35 days of 90 degree weather for the year, Detroit MI reported a record 37 days of 90 degree heat for the year, and Williamsport PA reported a record 38 days of 90 degree weather for the year. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing in a tropical airmass over the northeastern U.S. soaked Connecticut and Massachusetts with four to eight inches of rain over the weekend, between the 11th and 13th of the month. Hartford CT received 7.70 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991 - Stockton, California received 0.05 inch of rainfall on this day. Since 1949, this is the only measured rainfall in Stockton on August 13th. 2014 - An official, New York State 24 hour precipitation record was set at Islip, NY on August 12-13 when 13.57" of rain fell. Observances: 13 Thu Left-Handers Day 13 Thu National Filet Mignon Day 13 Thu National Prosecco Day 13 Thu Women's and Family Day

You reminded me of something. Whenever I was far away from home when I was younger, when I drove back, the first thing I noticed was the change in the smell of the air. Literally could smell the freshness of the Lakes the closer you got. You take that for granted living next to them all the time.

I'm seeing a lot of drum banging about the Euro seasonal throwing out a lot of +PNA/-NAO looks. AKA the holy grail for snow lovers.

Surprised he said slightly, lol