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I've been thinking the over the last 2-3 days the potential would be more western/central NY and PA and maybe SNE Sunday. However, looks like Saturday may end up being centra/eastern NY and PA into SNE. There are still timing differences but the NAM seems to be speeding up a bit. Good wind shear and solid height falls. Would like to see higher dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates but that's more pertinent if you're looking for outbreak type stuff. Just looking for thunder/lightning and a shelf cloud. Anything beyond is a bonus

pines dumping pollen roundabout, way II track this stuff and it’s a week early .

Chase rain showers in NNE?

The thing is will that change stick or be yet another one off?

Not sure how one can love summer yet hide in the AC from anything associated with it.

Getting tingly about Saturday. Finally something to chase! What a boring week being off...nothing.

It’s summer. Love it. Breathe all of that green powder in. Max 81.3°

Hmmm... Meteorologist Ahmad Bajjey ordeonsSptl35ca7fc4lh6f7106413028f4t6g5u9a984m79fai3faif4l2m · This is going to be a bit of a read, but I want to draw your attention to something I've covered before. A little over a year ago, sweeping cuts to NOAA caused a large number of NWS locations to trim weather balloon launches either to 1 per day instead of the normal 2, or to remove launches completely. Upper-air data, the information collected by these, is the primary and overwhelming input factor into computer models. These go to everything from our forecasts, to NWS, to your app, to AI, etc. Model data fuels it all. Now, models are only as good as the data it ingests, and the more often or better the data, the more likely we can target a more accurate forecast. Notice I said more accurate, not perfect. We're not, but we do pretty darn well. Moving on. We started seeing data in models showing issues from a lack of input months ago, but I don't believe I've seen a NOAA office actually say it out loud until now. The Storm Prediction Center, the ones who are the best of the best when it comes to severe and destructive weather, creates all the daily severe weather outlooks, specifically stating they could not confirm an important part of the forecast because there was no measurement. No balloons over the Rockies or the plains this morning. Balloons launch at 0Z and 12Z each day, or they used to, and that lack of information not only affects the models but also the ability to create accurate forecasts. Kansas saw this exact issue to devastating effect this spring. We saw this issue when the northern MI ice storm showed horrible amounts of ice, and the amount was still more than any worst-case scenario model showed, as we lacked good input data from no launches in Green Bay and a single launch from Gaylord. Now, today, they all launched special 18Z balloons. Those happen on expected severe weather days. But these don't help morning or midday models, forecasts, or even aid in updating, as that is the usual window where storms may begin. Think of it like looking at a forecast, wherever that may be, and it saying to expect bad weather while it's already begun to hit. I say all of this because these are the facts. They're not pleasant, but the numbers don't lie; there is a measurable decline in model input and accuracy output. This affects every single forecaster, streamer, and app in the country. We all use the same info. And now a large agency has mentioned it directly. That's rather large weather news.

Imagine people that open windows in homes and cars with all this pollen . If they rubbed hands across window sill and floors below would be completely yellowed. Folks with window fans at night blowing it all over their faces and sheets. And car dashboards with enough folks can make letters and pictures with fingers in it . Not to mention breathing it all in.

And as if the days getting shorter means it's going to get cooler or something.

Yeah. It is really noticeable today

Gracias Hunch. Wish Scoots could man up and acknowledge too but we know the drill . Looks warm to hot at times from here on out other than Monday . ACATT crew will disappear until Oct/ Nov

Holy disgusting pollen batman. F this

SOMETIMES.

Good .

Accuweather disagrees with multi days of clouds and rain https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/middletown/19709/10-day-weather-forecast/2218503?page={page} The Weather Channel has mid to at times upper 80's Wed 10 84° / 63° Mostly Sunny Thu 11 88° / 68° Partly Cloudy Fri 12 89° / 68° Partly Sunny Sat 13 87° / 66° Partly Cloudy Sun 14 86° / 69° Partly Cloudy Mon 15 86° / 69° Partly Cloudy Tue 16 86° / 69° Partly Cloudy Wed 17 83° / 67° Mostly Sunny Mount Holly only goes to next Weds. Not nearly as warm as the Weather Channel Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

why would you want rain? its softball season!

What can possibly go wrong? We got the right model on our side!

Nice call the other day Kevin. 82 here. I forecast low 70s

Looks like a cold frontal passage with limited moisture-we are starting to get out of the season of stratiform rains. Too bad it was a holiday weekend but we really needed that big dump back then

The lawns here are very noticeably browning. However, all the ensembles are spitting out an average of 2.5+" of rain over the next two weeks, which should hold off any drought for a while.

i got you beat. 41 degree rise (48 to 89), although my wx station runs a couple degrees high in the sun

CMC and AIFS have pretty much nothing, icon too