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The radar tower in Numila (PHKI) has been down for three hours. So we're running a bit blind beyond satellite. It's going to be very close whether the core or part of the eyewall clips Puuwai on the island of Ni'ihau. As mentioned before, modeling had us breathing too easy only to see guidance shift back east late in the game. I consider this a short-range failure in modeling, being that nearly all operationals and TC modeling had the core missing to the west somewhat comfortably no less than 48 hours ago. Again, you always hate to be on the eastern side of a chaotic trough interaction. Usually, if there are errors in a southwesterly steering flow setup, it's back towards the east if there is a correction.

It was a perfect day today. Overcast with a high of 63. Down to 58 now. Sent from my SM-S948U using Tapatalk

For the first run I’ve ever seen, the CFSv2 ensemble AAM forecast has its key at the bottom of the graph because there’s no room on top on either side! It is approaching 3. Three of the four members of the 9/7/26 12Z run have it exceed 4 on Sept 15th (day 9). I’ve still never seen the AAM get to 4 by the way. Will it finally do so this time?

Overview of the heat wave this past week locally... ...ORD... September 1st: 95°/77° September 2nd: 96°/78°* September 3rd: 91°/77°* September 4th: 93°/76°* *Record tied/broken. ...MDW... August 31st: 91°/72° September 1st: 94°/77° September 2nd: 96°/78° September 3rd: 92°/79° September 4th: 93°/78°

LOL maybe the worst 0.0 month lead forecasts in the history of seasonal models Chicago area Iowa

After a beautiful weekend at the lake im back home. Had a high today of 72 degrees and a current temp of 61.

81 today. 54 this morning. Beautiful labor day

Just give us moisture out here this winter. It has been a decade of watching eastern folks get hit while we get skunked. Wound up coastal plain runners would be fine by me.

48.4 this AM....gorgeous.

Low of 70, high of 86. Northeasterly breeze dropped the dew point to the mid 60's. Took my wife out in her wheelchair with the dog for a walk this evening and it felt so good out there. Didn't even break a sweat.

Just a matter of time.

East. Might back west into central/basin wide before it dissipates

So is this an east based, or basinwide El Nino at this point?

I’m old enough to remember when Jim Cantore had hair.

Had a high temp of 83 here today. Felt great with the dewpoints down in the 40s. Perfect weather for cookouts. I'm so glad we had a great holiday weekend, especially after the bad weather we had for the Memorial Day and 4th of July weekends.

Looks like you get clipped Thu/Thu night with some decent rains

Today's Highs: BLM: 82 New Brnswck: 82 PHL: 82 EWR: 81 TEB: 80 JFK: 80 * missing intra hour highs yet again ACY: 79 ISP: 79 LGA: 79 TTN: 79 NYC: 78

We don't have any local TV people doing a winter outlook any longer. Glenn and Cecily are gone....Kathy Orr FOX29? YouTube weather people seem more positive for the east coast. Precip will most likely be there but is it the mixed bag/snow to rain crap or all snow? While doing a weather search for something, the weather channel popped up....Jim Cantore (still there) celebrated his 40th anniversary this past July at the station. Man, I'm old...