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We mixed along the beach during the infamous January 2016 blizzard and still had well over a foot.

That is incoming crush job

Yep, the changes early in runs have been positive at 12z and now starting into 18z. They are small, but small changes upstream can lead to larger ones downstream. No different than the changes leading to the sudden flip we saw last night. Just need these trends to actually continue, not just windshield wiper back and forth.

they need to bring back blowing snow advisories. the simplification movement to elimination those, and instead use a winter storm/blizzard warning or winter weather advisory, seems bad.

So around 88:00 hours?.

What time is that, like 145 o'clock pm?

Given that the largest snowfalls in BOS since 2022 have been 5.5" (2/9/25) 5.4" (2/16/25) 5.3" (1/19/26) 5.2" (12/20/24) I'd expect an underperformance with a storm total between 5.1" and 5.6" Lots of nickels, never a dime

Was going to say the 84hr panel actually looks really good. The differences between the NAM and 12z GFS at 72hr in the Southwest are pretty extreme. Maybe the GFS starts phasing that sw energy sooner.

Just for reference and no stick should be put in this range of the NAM 84H

The NAM was about 70 miles south with the 850s vs 12z, the 70 mile shift in the vort pieces did it.

hr 84

Paging @SnowenOutThere to help explain better than I could

Inside of 60 I actually think those were meaningful changes. You can see the trajectory of the precip shield also positively changed. That's a win at this juncture.

Yea for sure. Those runs tomorrow should be interesting if this keeps it up plus the new recon ingest.

I think the cold air will be stubborn to get out. That is a strong high pressure system, with damn low temps at all levels of the atmosphere, at least for most of the storm. GFS and Euro soundings both show temps in the teens or maybe low 20s at most thru the storm in the NYC tri-state area. It looks like on the Euro you would have to get to around the same latitude as Philly before being concerned about any mixing issues. Canadian looks to be the warmest solution, with the rain/snow line getting as far north as the south shore of LI.

Soil, Crossfade, Tool and rolling 87 octane

When is 93z? Is that like half past never?

18z NAM at 84.....

You're mighty old for a JV forecaster.

That's late!!!

As was the snow/ice line.

Delaware looks like rain for a time according to the picture. This thing keeps coming NE. Isn't there that chance of more warm air aloft to bring this rain and ice further to DC and Baltimore? Neat how it went from one extreme to another. No snow, to snow, to snow than ice, and now who knows. Seems PA, NJ will make out really good.

It would quite the coup if one guy went against every model, almost every other meteorologist in the East and got it right. If it's just an exaggeration, then okay, fair enough. I would guess over-amplification is more of a concern than suppression now, which Louis would seem to agree with, but we will know more tomorrow. Phased systems are always delicate, particularly when there is no block.

Still a 1042mb High pressure in NY state on the NAM at 84hr. That's a tough wall for this low pressure to climb against.

Chuck been real quiet since that 60hr panel drop....