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Its the NAM. Honestly, we probably should be looking at the HRRR. But to be honest, this CAD is a bitch to figure out. It will be a nowcasting type of deal. Unfortunately lots of people will end up with a lot of ice. Where? Stay tuned.

We all pick our poison. Js.

3k not bad and maybe a tad better gang. I say we toss the 12... Very good point Pa.. column cools when rippin

That is the prior run - he posted 12z

H7 don’t care

they could also get plain rain in the southern parts, but i don't know if that would help.

latest from Chicago Main focus is on a synoptic accumulating snow system Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Some questions remain with exact snow amounts especially into the Chicago metro area where some lake- enhancement is likely. Expectation is that we`ll end up with a general 3-6" accumulation across the southeast third to half of the cwa, and potentially parts of the Chicago metro where lake- enhancement occurs, with a sharp gradient to lower amounts farther to the northwest. Details of where exactly this gradient lays out will need further refinement, and thus in collaboration with neighbors to the east and west have held off on headline issuance just yet. However, we do anticipate the need for a winter weather advisory for southeast parts of the forecast area and near the lake as the footprint is further narrowed down.

Yea I noticed that on recent runs…you can basically follow the lobe of energy from the Baja low and that’s the driving force behind the potential changeover. WV loop is gonna blossom on Sunday once that piece gets near…just gotta see whether it’s too much of a good thing.

listen to yourselves..you want to through the nam and the euro out and run with the gfs

Stefi Graf model

If the other 18z runs show a similar move, then maybe.

That’s a good sign if higher res is showing less of the garbage

It could be 3 degrees with sleet with warmth aloft . Surface nothing to do with it. It’s probably not correct this run, but it’s something to keep in back of mind

You won’t want to see it…

you better go adjust your numbers in the snowfall contest

I can't see plain rain anywhere except maybe the immediate coast, but a sleet-fest is definitely on the table.

Maybe the eastern tip of LI changes to rain but I highly doubt anyone else does unless we see prolonged onshore winds given the severity of the cold air coming in. I could see freezing rain happening if we get a shallower cold layer at the surface. Bottom line is hopefully this NAM run is wrong.

Selling the low tucking towards NYC before sliding east toward ACK.

RRFS is cheeks Although NAM is also cheeks in its own ways Feels like a one step forward one step backward kind of tradeoff (although turning off most of the HREF members and going to the REFS is an additional step backwards IMO)

just read the updates for upton and mt holly and they see a northern trend, esp on the gfs. uncertain about how much mixing but mt holly flat out says the I 95 corridor is gonna ping, and there will be rain south. still going 8-12 but keeping cards close to the chest.

Just got back from a run up to Carlisle. Had to drop off a package for the younger Ms. J. Went to lunch at the local pizza place just off campus. She told me that her College is all ready for this. The emails have been sent out with instructions and that the Dinning Hall will be open. Took her out for some supplies so that she is not caught off guard. Mainly her ESA Guinea Pig needed veggies. Good thing she did not move her car as any student who is parked on the main street is being told to move their cars to the lot she is in. It was getting filled up. Once I hit the PA line on 15 started seeing all the entrance and and exit ramps brined up and ready to go. Nothing in MD as of yet but I am sure it is coming.

Still rooting for the NAM. For a few times in my life LOL! I'll take .40in for ZR over 1in any day.

This model has been pretty solid this winter. Do we have a comparison with the prior run?

I'm a Dolphins fan I've become numb to disappointment