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4.8” official out of this event - so call it about 8.5” over the past 2+ days.

Central Park: 0.5" LGA: T JFK: 0.4" EWR: 0.7" Upton NWS: 1.4" Bridgeport: 0.2"

3-3.5” just shoveled. Prob got 2-2.5” from the squalls

4.5” in Sturbridge seems to be the jack

Thanks for another year of this contest, it keeps me and I'm sure others involved during slower periods. I look forward to defending the win in 2026 God willing. Happy New Year to all and may 2026 be our best year yet.

As for the MJO, the CPC plots have it all over the place and all over the COD, but with very low amplitude. I can't find a single plot that gains amplitude. It is very difficult to find even a pattern among the cobwebs of plots. I think Jax's chi image from yesterday is pretty accurate. Six is going to fire-up for a few days, and then fade. There will be mild activity in the 8 region continuously. The signal gets washed out. I did think of this. Can anyone post the daily PDO graph (the one with the running line graph so we can see a trend)? I am going to get my run in for this AM and watch some CFB playoffs. I probably won't post about 12z until the last ensemble runs(EPS) around 2:30. I know some of you think when I don't post...it must have been a bad suite. Nope. Life just get in the way as it should! This is going to be a great football day.

any videos of today's squall line?

You’re a great poster TW! Chime in more. But you’re right. The ole rug pull is common around here. I’ve been most at peace with it this year than ever before. It is what it is. It hurts to see it happen but what can we do?

3” of fluff here at Lava lake in Dayville. Edit: I was under a decent band earlier. Whiteout type stuff. Was just out clearing it. Wind it Brutal. 8” so far for the season.

That WINDEX event actually ended up being our demise in many ways over the next 7-10 days. It kept the 1/30/10 system well south of us (that was the one that looked like a big NC/S VA hit but trended into a big N VA/MD hit. Fluff bomb.) Then the vortex from that WINDEX event just spun to our northeast with the huge block in place and kept 2/5-6/10 south of us.

I haven't chimed in much at all this season. What has happened in the last week or so with a promising pattern disappearing has been all too common the last few years. Everyone gets worked up that it's coming as many of our "experts" are fully on board. The problem that I've seen is that these bullish forecasts for the holy grail pattern (or close to it) are based on 2/3/4 week ensembles and indexes that quite frankly are no better than a 10 day deterministic forecast. Throughout all of the excitement over the last couple of weeks, I just didn't see a whole lot there that looked promising. As in the past, I read what the "experts" were saying and remained optimistic. Here we sit on Jan 1 with the first 2 weeks pretty much shot. So, we'll likely have peak climo temp wise (Jan 15-30) still on the table for possibly having something good happen. After that, temps are headed north and it gets more difficult to have a classic winter pattern that would have snow on the ground for more than a day or two. It can certainly happen, but times like that are fewer and further between as time goes along. Happy New Year folks! TW

It literally sounded like a tornado. It was weird.

Ended up with around 1.8". I missed seeing the squall but I think we got it for some time around 7:30ish. Overall a nice start to 2026 that makes up for that rain storm from the other day.

I'd give it an A here too.

mm actually, resonance - which persistence is ... regardless of causality - can also be a feedback/positively reinforced by the CC. Resonance then gives rise to synergy - outcome more than than sum of moving parts..etc. "Exceeding" is still causally linked if that's the case. Longer diatribe: CC is speeding up the basal velocities of global gradient latitudes. This is so because ... even though the polar regions are warming faster than the tropics during the last 20 .. 30 years, the cooling seasons still impose a net +d(G). In practical terms, that means the cold side of the jet stream latitudes are more extreme than the warm sides - more so comparing to prior climate generations. That increases the thermal wind vector, which is balanced by the Coriolis parameter, and viola! there is higher wind velocities in the gradient latitudes comparing 50 years ago. This is measured/empirically shown. Not only by atmospheric physics ..but in every day usage. Ex, more air-land speed records have been set ( airline traffic) when traveling west to east...etc during these recent decades. This increased velocity is going to alter the pattern footprints, because velocity of the medium is in the wave physical equations. It's just physically avoidable. Predicting precisely how is a HUGE problem. For one, in the summers ... there are these resonances that set up and create these synergistic heat domes and regions end up blazing hotter than the modeling suggested they really would- just one example. Much to the counter-intuitive bemusement of the common person, these particularly deep, gelid visits by SPVs to mid latitudes in winters are actually causally linked to this just the same. It's not just heat in the summers... Not only that, it's effecting the transition seasons, too, with larger than normal variance in in temperature anomalies during seasons that inherently come with bigger transition differentials ('transition seasons') CC does change the circulation behavior at planetary scales. It's probably era- Transitional during this era of CC. If CC were to continue unabated ... speculation would raise polar realms enough to where the distant future state stops relaxes the ambient winter hemispheric gradients. The ambient/basal velocities slow. What, 70 ..120 years? Or sooner. How may 2023 burst in global temperatures are in the future, and when? The fact that 2023 happened with 0 leading predictions, is pretty damming to the climate forecast community. I mean ... not casting doubt or blame or shade for the their efforts, but the bottom line is ... no one saw that coming. And, that pertinently rattles confidences and makes one wonder if these are going to happen again. If so ...the future CC curve is not linear. Which is kind of duh in a philosophical approach anyway, because the last 20 .. 30 years have graphically shown that this hasn't been linear, anyway. It comes down to acceleration - what is that rate going to be. But I'm digressing...

Your memory is impeccable, especially for smaller events and their dates. Of course that was just before the mid-Atlantic went full Day After Tomorrow.

The past four winters have been so bad, especially for those in the urban areas and coastal plain of this forum, people forgot what winter is supposed to to look and feel like. December was a solid A- here in Orange County. 17 inches of snow and temperatures 3 degrees below the now inflated 1991-2020 30 year average. Gangbusters is a little strong.

There’s not lot of evidence we’re going to stay near normal at least for the 1/7-1/11 period. People can quibble on the magnitude of the warmth but it’s going to be AN. After that is a little dicier. There’s a big shift going on in the PAC. Looks like PV tries to get reestablished near Hudson Bay which would be a return to a colder pattern. The question is how quickly that happens. Could be in place by 1/12-13 or it could wait a week. Or something different could pop up on guidance. Seems to be pretty good consensus right now though on ensemble guidance.

I feel like the 6z AIFS Euro (which just ran) is a pretty good representation of the 0z EURO and GEPS. Temps under that gradually cool to seasonal or BN. It is again worth noting that seasonal temps can get the job done from mid-Jan to mid-Feb, provided that timing is works (meaning not warm-up and rain). But give me that setup - all day long. EPO ridge, AN heights over Greenland and AO regions, trough north(or east of Hawaii), split flow. Trends over the next 2-3 days will be important. For now, decent chance at a good pattern in the aforementioned timeframe.

Just scored a pair of ski boots for 75% off! 2024 Atomic Hawx 130s. New. $240!

NAM crushed this from a few days ago. Those soundings on the NAM for the Cape were pretty sweet

I cannot think of a time for a weather event during the entire calendar year that more people would be likely to miss than 5:30 AM on New Year's Day.

3.0” on the nose here on the shoreline. Nice little overachiever to ring in the new year!

Absolutely..gotta be 1/8-1/4th visibility with Heavy Snow. Best rates I've seen since at least 1/22.

1/1: 0.1" 3.5" season total