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That's some weak ass shit, son. Even I got to 14 and I have open lava tubes for roads

I'm not really worried about the initial low, but rather any redevelopment being over our heads. I'd like to see that phased 500 evolution drag more east or south vs over our heads.

Also the euro issue with the 18 hour dry slot (freezing drizzle slot) while people 50 miles north get pummelled

fortunately its a light and fluffy snow that we'll be dealing w/, but 12+ of any snow can become a factor. Hopeful that as the cones narrow (and we look to be squarely in them) that peeps listen and prepare for potential loss of heat/power. I'm telling everyone I can to get grill food ready and make sure propane is filled....just in case. I may have to sit at my desk for a while. Looking at the overnighters has me looking like a 16yr old lookin at playboys. Pants tent for sure. This is so fun.....LOVE it. Lets enjoy boys n girls.

Panic is reserved for 52F the day before an event and hoping the storm makes it's own cold air when the 540 line is in Cleveland. you wake up few hours before the storm and its 41F at 1am a now is all about evap cooling to save the day. none of that applies here. we're good!

Yeah I’d like to see more of a coastal take over and keep a slug of moisture going vs blowing it to our SW

12z HRRR is doing the same. Although at range it is a clownshow.

I don’t think anyone seeing advisories. You either getting snow or ice warning levels

Tickle Tickle

Getting that coastal low to crank and slow down and getting deformed is what we need to reach that HECS level.

Constructive/deconstructive interference is an impact.

FWIW, we’re in that range where EuroAI has been deadly and I think pretty much our entire sub would sign up for its 6z in a hot minute.

It does still seem to me that the floor for this event is still pretty high comparatively, even with the mixing threat.

I posted earlier the 6z GGEM was colder at 84hrs vs 90hrs at 0z, so they're consistent.

If there is lag that implies more of an impact bc it's moving out of the MC.

I-95 Rejoices!

Realistically, how far north can this come? Impressive trend for increasing heights and less confluence out ahead. 0z and 6z ECMWF track the 850mb low to the eastern Great Lakes before the coastal reflection takes over off of the ME coast.

RRFS-A coming into range and has basically the same evolution. Slower/less perfect interaction between 00 and 06Z and a bit stronger with the eastern lobe of the high. Interested to see if this becomes a trend given that both trailing N/S waves have yet to become their own entities.

We are now into the debate over watches and what kind and timing and who gets a WSW vs a WWA? #toosoon

This is a comparison of the 6z GFS(left) and 6z Euro. The differences over the Plains are noticeable. The Plains hp on the GFS is stronger and more to the Northwest. The Euro is digging the hp behind the storm - amps the slp in front. The hp in New England is more expansive on the GFS and blocks the slp from coming north...supresses the slp in the mid-South. Here are two more things I am looking at. Let's compare trends within the same model. If the GFS is going to be insistent on the Montana high being strong, is it actually maintaining its solution from run-to-run? 6z GFS(left) and 0z GFS (right). The GFS weakens the Montana hp(for lack of a better term), but only slightly and the portion of the hp is pretty much the same. The more that hp weakens, the more the seam between the two highs...the more room is available or the moisture to stream into the "void." We need a banana high which is continuous and not split. The New England high really stays about the same in terms of strength and position. IMPORTANT: Now, this might sound like splitting hairs, because it is. But the placement and strength of the two areas of hp is affecting synoptics big time. In turn, that is affect p-types. I tend to lean towards the Euro as it is just a better model at this range. But...the 6z RFS surface pressure looks like the 6z GFS, and that gives me pause. The Euro having pretty significant differences w/ high strength and position(from 0z to 6z) in the Plains also gives me pause. The fact the 6z Euro brought back a stronger Montana hp...cannot be ignores, but it might not matter if the STJ pulse stays strong.

Haven't heard that in a while.

Need to be ugly blued. The watch color shade is so bleh.

My hunch is that the GFS is handling the very cold and dense Arctic front better this time. I'm also watching Texas carefully as well. It appears the freezing temperatures will make it to the Coast on Friday evening/early Saturday morning creating and icy mess across Metro Houston and possibly Galveston. So today into tomorrow should provide a bit more clarity and then we can start exploring p-types and amounts.

Yep