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Seeing pinks on radar returns north of Wadesboro out west. Meanwhile I'm at 0.09" for the day.

There is no torch. Torches are hot. Require air conditioning.

The nightmares…

The weekend will feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Sunday will see clouds break and the mercury rise toward 80°. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -32.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.236 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Does this look familiar at all? If I complain enough something good will happen.

They kept asking where’s the torch and we’ve been telling them everyday. It’s been here all month everywhere and continues to ramp up !

Who's everyone? Hartford?

Brisk 65F with a light breeze

Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 520 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Storm Surveys Ongoing in portions of Delaware, northeast Maryland, and southeast Pennsylvania... The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ is currently conducting storm surveys for the areas near Dover in Kent County, DE, Barclay and Marydel in Queen Anne's County, MD, and Downingtown in Chester County, PA. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area on Thursday, August 20th, 2026. We have confirmed that at least EF-1 tornado damage, with estimated peak winds up to 105 mph, occurred with the tornado that impacted the Dover, DE area.

And everyone is already +2 to +4 MTD. People have forgotten what a normal month feels like. CON’s record for tomorrow is 34° in 1982. That doesn’t even seem possible today.

Well it is true that droughts can tend to be self sustaining(positive feedback loop) due to multiple factors. As for the models, I would think the physics are capable of resolving that to some degree. In places where general/long term dryness is a feature due to topography(downsloping for example) the models certainly can 'see' that- often depicting a precip min in those locales. Just ask @EastCoast NPZ

If a picture is worth a thousand words there will still never be enough to describe these. Magnificent! As always …..

TORCH!!!

When forky gets serious he is untouchable, weather wise. Other than that your point is well taken. Thank you, M, for the ‘factual trolling’ term. I’ve now found a descriptive synonym for political debates. As always ……

It's all about the dynamics. Get the right dynamics and you can pop whoppers in a wedge. Not sure if this system is going to have the umph we need, but it is certainly more dynamic than anything we have seen this month.

ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL!

That stuff out west is wild. However...this cloud covered showered cool air will do to it what it always does!

Just judging by upstream radar, things look good, but we know how upstream cells can vanish mysteriously once hitting the Raleigh shield.

That is nuts....you just recreated my extra tropical Pacific composite. I hadn't even viewed that correlation map, either. Matches it 100%.

First measurable rain since start of the month but just 0.02” lol

That was a fun way to kill an hour. Storm had a lot of low level rotation but it was broad. Needed just a little kick to tighten it up and it may have spun up a quick one. Passed just NE of me, so I got to watch the whole evolution on the deck.

Getting a few anvil sprinkles here with the sun still out.

I think a lot of attention is paid to the Pacific when ENSO may actually effect N. America directly If you look at the cold season correlation with Nino 1+2 there is actually a slightly higher max in N. America, north of the Great Lakes, than the NPH area in the N. Pacific It will be interesting to see what happens this Winter in this regard as the PDO/overall 500mb state of the Pacific is so different from El Nino atm.