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I usually shovel no matter what unless it’s 12”+ , hopefully can save a few strategic piles for Christmas

I think the strength and staying power(duration) you mentioned Yesterday may be a strong Indicator irt whether we have a great Winter or not as you mentioned Yesterday. Historical backing. Even '95-96 had a mild stretch mid December before going cold by Christmas. 89-90 had extreme cold the entire Month rhat flipped the last Day to a long mild period and stayed mild overall. The great '70's Winter's as example here, featured a couple mild periods of between 1-3 Days , and those weren't very mild at that ! I remember January of '78 the only one in Pennington that Month and it was one Day. 38 for the High !

Yeah so my only point for this is if there's really something here I think we'd see it in actual statistical correlations with ENSO to snowfall. Whether that be rate of change of ENSO over the winter, a linear or partial correlation between regional observation and ENSO value itself...just something there that's more robust and can give us something to really sink our teeth into and find out what it's telling us and why. I think your points here aren't far from where I'm at too. But I'm more curious as to thought process above all else to see if there's something testable.

In what world do you think Christmas will be near normal temps? Literally everything out there shows ridging in that timeframe.

My drive thru lady at the Bojangles in Walkertown said she heard there is going to be a snow blizzard between the 18th-20th. I trust her with my food. Now I must trust her with my forecast. Bank it!

Woke up to an inch of fluffy here. I don't know why but secondary roads are trashed around here. Pure ice. They never fully cleared from the Black Friday snow. Lazy county snow plows I guess. I'll make a call for 3 more hear for #2. KIND and IWX calling for 2- 4 right now.

Yeah I was speaking about trainers pal.

Got a dusting out of the snow this morning and still light snow falling.

The RMM charts are misleading sometimes. The mjo may have been in phase 8 for a little while. I hope it don't stay there for too long in warmer phases and we get what we need to see to get a better pattern after the warm up.

Low of 22. Liking the potential for Saturday night. December looking like it could be a tale of two halves.

Have to be appreciative of the fact 17-18" is in the bank before Xmas. Two substantial events; one 6-10" and another 4-7". As stated above we broke the streak of horrid Decembers. Hopefully January and February present some windows to get above 30-35" for seasonal totals. Been tough to break 25" lately.

Hey brother long time. Remember when we stole Kocin and Uccelinni badges at the GTG in DC. Lol That was my favorite conference

Awesome

Picked up another half inch overnight. Flurries and 24 currently. Decent sunrise this morning! Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Hoping for Doug flutie at 12z, even if it just locks in enough to cover the grass

90% of my annual snow occurs after Dec 21st. The urge down here to rush snow is undoubtedly understandable with all the cold. I feel for those that are emotionally invested.

The 4 inch threshold is just a historical marker. Much like accumulating snow before the middle of November leads to a BN total snowfall winter. You won’t find a scientific reason for it. It’s an observation on historical data that you can make a casual correlation with. And the casual correlation that a poster like blue wave has made is that in La Niña winters if we don’t get over 4 inches of snow in December you can expect a below normal snowfall winter. Now, if you wanted to dive deeper into that you could say La Niña shoots its load during December and if not much comes from that, that usually is a good indication that January and February arent going to be much better. That’s more scientific because La Niña is frontloaded for the month of December. But the reality is, these are just historical markers and you can choose to dismiss them as you wish. But better to have a flash light for possible clues then go into January blind expecting an equal chance. Historical data says otherwise.

1.5" here this Morning. Some melting underneath so may have been a bit more. It stopped for several hours last night before a period more this morning. KMRX is requesting Reports. Please send them in.

Patriots snow game?

And he just hops into threads when he can pretend that he knows more than everybody else and point out bad outcomes. He’s just projecting his own sense of being less than onto other people. Which is a shame because he clearly has a lot of knowledge which he could choose to use differently. no change.

The heaviest with that event went just south of the NYC to LGA corridor so the lack of a 4” daily measurement in those locations made sense since it was such a narrow band.

Oh I can shrug it off because I will never allow weather to impact my life in the way it does to some other people here..

What else is new!?

They have been posted extensively here which is more than I can say about your data.

Kev please please remember my 2015 posts. I am totally satiated and whatever came after that is just a bonus. Snow is cool but seen enough in this life to be happy. If 2015 never happened I would be seeking the holy grail. But alas I also know my climo and winter has a long long way to go.